Today, it is 102 years since my dad was born. While he passed suddenly 42 years ago, his inspiration and influence are as strong today as they were then.
I am eternally grateful to him for his love, his encouragement, his kindness, his support, and the example he set for us all.
An independent
#FederalReserve
is critical to the well-being of the US
#economy
. Having said that, it is getting harder to justify such independence when four big operational errors (of analysis, forecasts, actions and communication) are accompanied by a lack of accountability.
Judging from the images on the news of large crowds in public spaces, the next few weeks’ infection/hospitalization numbers out of some US states will shed light on the following: either we are re-opening with insufficient health safeguards or the lockdown was a big overreaction.
If you have a few minutes, may I please ask you to read this (link below)?
This is only the second time since I've been tweeting that I make such an ask...and do so because,by being informed about what's ahead, we stand a better chance of responding better
Awful US inflation data
Headline at 9.1%, well above the median forecast of 8.8% and highest since 1991
Core also higher-than-expected.
Details appear equally worrisome
Bottom line: Further blow to economic and social well-being. Highlights Fed’s worst policy mistakes in decades
In a strange move,
#Fitch
just downgraded the US sovereign
#ratings
from AAA to AA+, with a stable outlook.
The
#rating
agency's justification is set out in this statement (link below).
I am very puzzled by many aspects of this announcement, as well as by the timing.
I suspect I
Having lost control of the narrative on inequality and inflation, the
#Fed
faces further damage to its reputation due to their interaction:
The most vulnerable segments of our society are being hit hard by
#inflation
and also face the risk of an income shock due to a policy error
May I please ask you a favor?
May we all make a point of thanking those who continue to show up to work and allow various services and production processes to continue?
From our stores and banks to factories and the like, they are taking higher personal health risks for our sake,
What if it's not just the risk of "zombie companies" eroding the productivity and dynamism of the economy...but also zombie
#markets
mis-pricing risk/mis-allocating capital due to heavy official intervention?
There are better ways to help people and minimize future hits to growth
How late is the
#Fed
? Very:
Having misunderstood the inflation dynamic, it eroded its credibility
Having missed a wide-open window last year to adjust policies when economic growth was on an upswing, it no longer has good policy options
It has lost control of its policy narrative
On this day, December 12th, we lost our dad to a heart attack.
It was 42 years ago, and yet it still feels like yesterday.
I have been, remain, and will always be profoundly thankful to him for …
All that he sacrificed to support our education,
The value system he cherished
This sort of yield volatility is not normal for a security — the US 10 year government bond — that serves as an important benchmark for the financial system, domestically and beyond.
It is also not desirable as it undermines constructive financial intermediation, harms the
Message is clear from the negative US GDP print (-0.9%) and unfavorable miss on jobless claims:
The US
#economy
is slowing at a significant rate.
Add to that the 8.7% price change in today's data and the bottom line is clear:
Deepening stagflation and flashing red
#recession
risk
Can you tell I was taken totally out of my comfort zone! I tried, and with no technical support. The family ate it all. Talk about being polite and supportive!!
.
@WarrenBuffet
on
Why he's not buying stocks in size: sensitivity to tail events and the '08 reminder "we don't see all the problems the first day."
On whether others should buy now: Only if you expect to hold for a long time and are financially and psychologically ready to do so
Having gone through the data again this weekend, I feel even more strongly that 50 bps would have been better last week (reasons detailed in my Jan 26th
@opinion
post).
I hope dearly the Fed hasn't, for the 3rd time in this hiking cycle, missed a window for timely policy actions.
Further to earlier tweets:
Virtually everyone at this high-level Swiss press conference--government officials, regulator, central bank governor, and executives of the two banks--blamed the US banking sector turmoil for being the catalyst for the financial turmoil in
#Switzerland
.
A year ago, the
#Fed
was confident about
#inflation
, asserting that it would be back around 2% by the end of 2021.
Today, inflation is 3-4 times that level and likely to remain high into 2023.
Today's Fed, it is confident about a "softish landing."
Let's hope so. A lot at stake.
My daughter just sent me this from 17 years ago!
Looks like a late-night or early-morning joint session.
Somehow, and despite the specialized keyboard, I doubt we were analyzing Bloomberg data!
I suspect we were either looking at family photos or reading a picture book online!
Well, that didn’t take long.
Once again, Fed officials seem forced to walk back public comments that moved markets in a major way.
It remains to be seen whether this will succeed given the extent to which Wednesday’s “Powell Pivot” has unleashed several market technicals.
A stunning US jobs report highlighting the strength of the labor market and its complexities.
Job rose by 517,000 for Jan compared to the consensus forecast of 189,000; the unemployment rate fell to a 53-year low of 3.4% (3.8%).
The puzzle: Wage growth came in as expected (0.3%).
With
@JoeBiden
now leading in
#Georgia
and expected to get the majority of the remaining votes, it's just a matter of time until the media declares him president-elect
What follows will be an important and widely-watched test of America's democracy, legal system and social fabric
"In terms of total returns, this is the biggest bond market rout in 150 years. Last year was in fact US bond investors’ worst year since 1871, with a total return of minus 15.7%, even worse than the annus horribilis of 2009. For 2023, the year-to-date return has been almost minus
Extremely sad and tragic news out of Japan.
The assassination of Shinzo Abe, Japan's former and longest-serving Prime Minister, robs the country and globe of a world-class leader.
He leaves a legacy of bold policies, courage, and dedication to the welfare of his people
May he RIP
The yield on the 10-year US government bond is currently trading above 4.70%.
Simply put:
Last year was about
#markets
adjusting to higher rates. This year is about markets adjusting to rates staying high for longer.
The process of market adjustment is ongoing while that of the
.
#Fed
's balance sheet continues to increase, now very close to $9 trillion.
It's very hard, if not impossible, to justify the
#Fed
pumping yet more
#liquidity
into the system via asset purchases.
Officials should announce tomorrow an immediate end to
#QE
.
Given how massively under-exposed stocks I was going into this selloff, I dipped a toe in this afternoon via a small handful of high-beta names
Do I think the selling is over? I suspect not though, of course, I don't know any more than others
I do sense some trading opportunities
This, from
@BBCNews
about food prices in the
#UK
, is an important reminder that
#inflation
is not about abstract numbers. It is a persistent real-world phenomenon that consistently erodes households' purchasing power and hits particularly hard the most vulnerable segments of
.
#Stocks
just took a leg up on
#FederalReserve
Chair Jay
#Powell
characterizing financial conditions as having tightened quite a bit in the last year.
(Not sure which index he is using. The most widely cited ones show overall financial conditions as loose as they were a year ago)
I remember my amazing dad on this
#FathersDay
Kind, caring and dedicated, he taught us the importance of education, respecting others, hard work, and giving back.
He passed 40 years ago, yet his inspiration and guidance are with us every day
A huge thanks to a very special father
Hard to believe but the yield on the 10-year US government bond, a global benchmark, is back at the same level that it started 2023!
This at a time when the consensus expectations for US
#growth
is very different than a year ago; and there is greater sensitivity to bond issuance
Some of the calculations on Twitter exaggerate the risks facing the banking system.
While there are fragilities inherent to the US banking setup, they are containable via timely policy measures
The risk is that such calculations fuel undue anxiety, amplifying systemic instability
Analytically, think of today's equity losses as a new phase and not just a continuation of the earlier selloff
At first, it was about rising interest rates and tightening financial conditions
Now it's also about growth/earnings worries as inflation erodes living standards/profits
What a world we live in:
I find myself checking the news regularly on a Sunday to see if wide-scale armed conflict has erupted between
#Russia
and
#Ukraine
.
The global
#economy
and
#markets
are not ready to handle the strong stagflationary winds were such a conflict to break out.
Goldman joins a small but growing group worried that inflation may not come down as fast as we would all hope for, and is needed for economic well-being.
What is also interesting is that, within this group, almost everyone automatically assumes that this higher
#inflation
will be
Another
#inflation
number that's above consensus expectation:
#Germany
's PPI rose 25% in January, the highest since 1949.
While energy prices played an important role...
"Even excluding energy, producer prices were up 12 per cent, pointing to broadbased producer inflation"
@FT
I've been asked repeatedly why the US administration’s approval rating on the economy remains so low among voters even though the US economy has consistently outperformed expectations in terms of growth and jobs.
The quick one-word answer is, of course, inflation – and in three
As many of you know, I have felt for a few months now that the 2 year yield was the best indicator of what broader financial markets would do and why.
Today’s comments by
#FederalReserve
Chair Powell pushed this yield to over 5% … 1 of 2
It’s wonderful to be able to end the week with such a stunning southern Californian evening ... especially after such a highly uncertain and unsettling week for us all. Wishing you a restful weekend.
#weekend
#sunset
#socal
#california
As next week's US CPI
#inflation
print may get very close to 9%, some will be quick to point out that this measure is backward-looking.
Yes...but it
Captures the pain that many are feeling, particularly the less fortunate segments of society; and
Influences inflation expectations
Two more of the joys I have found in working from home:
Our wonderful pup kept me company under the desk while I was working ... and next to me while I took a nap.
(To be more precise: I decided to be next to her for the nap, forgoing the sofa!).
#dogs
#pups
#workingfromhome
Wondering how a small miss on the US
#inflation
numbers can result in such a spike in yields on US government
#bonds
(2- and 10-year below)?
A lot of it has to do with the extent to which
#markets
had embraced, subject to limited critical thinking, the narrative of a very soft
Once again, hotter than expected US
#inflation
numbers for both the core and headline measures… and, therefore, bad news for the
#FederalReserve
and
#markets
and, more importantly, the
#economy
and especially the most vulnerable segments of society.
1/2
“💯% probability of a [US] recession:”
Quite a statement from the Bloomberg economic modeling team.
If indeed valid, the implications would extend well beyond the
#economy
, encompassing also financial, political, social and institutional credibility issues in the US and beyond.
While it's possible that this may lead to better outcomes, it's far from probable.
Neither country has the initial conditions to make this succeed and attract others.
The best this initiative can hope for is that talk creates some political cover for much-needed economic reforms.
A blunt fact remains when you step back from all the details on
@CreditSuisse
-
@UBS
deal
#Switzerland
's second-largest bank--a bank that opened its doors for business in 1856 and was one of the 30 systemically important
#banks
around the world--will no longer exist as a standalone
Before I get asked again about
#Bitcoins
Back on Nov 29, '18, I bought some at $4,728,based not on a deep analysis but rather on the basis of technicals
Also was a great way to get a feel for what's becoming a more popular holding
I sold today,again not based on any deep analysis
Worry for
#Turkey
is that this week's sharp
#currency
depreciation will fuel a vicious cycle of increased dollarization and worsening corporate currency mismatches. This would lead to further Lira weakness. With that, inflation goes even higher, hitting the poor particularly hard
China faces the risk of two major economic/financial problems coming together … and having them fuel and be amplified by financial instability:
First, insufficient domestic growth drivers in the face of external headwinds; and
Second, long-standing pockets of excessive debt and
He tried …
Per the Bloomberg headline below,
#FederalReserve
Chair Powell tried to push back against market pricing of notable rate cuts next year noting “it would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate
As the world nervously waits to see what happens next in the Middle East, it is now crystal clear that the region has shifted over the last six months from what some deemed as a relatively contained disequilibrium to a perilously unstable disequilibrium involving an increasing
It's increasingly clear that the
#UK
came close to a consequential financial accident that would have had damaging economic spillovers, domestically and internationally
The
@BankOfEngland
intervention averted that for now but can't reconcile the growing inconsistencies/imbalances
Gold is trading at another record high this morning, consistent with the market’s’ main takeaway from yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting — that is, the world’s most powerful central bank seems willing to tolerate higher inflation for longer.
#economy
#centralbanks
#markets
#gold
There's an inclination by some to dismiss the 17 million surge in jobless claims as quickly reversible, risking to under-appreciate current/future pain inflicted on many
Re current:Look at lines outside food banks
Future:Look at the complexities of when/how to restart the economy
US CPI inflation came in hotter than expected for the third straight month ... and the result is continued price pressure on consumers, which hits the poor hardest, and a sharp market reaction.
Both headline and core prices rose 0.4%, bringing the annual measures to 3.2% and
For the history books: 1-week move in the yield on UK 30-year government bonds
This 1-week journey —some 270 basis points from bottom to top and back—was essentially unthinkable for most economists market participants, and policymakers.(Remember, these are long duration UK bonds)
As many of you know, I have been uncomfortable about how extremely data-dependent this
#FederalReserve
has been, and remains...especially given the obvious point that its tools operate with a lag (together with its lack of strategic vision and an inappropriate Monetary Policy
.
@WarrenBuffett
on negative interest rates:
-"It's the most interesting question I've ever seen in economics."
"We may be facing the period in which we question the hypothesis on whether this can continue."
-"We are doing things that we don't know the ultimate consequences."
.
@BankOfEngland
is off the sidelines with direct intervention in the government bond market:
It just announced "temporary" purchases of long-dated UK
#bonds
.
This for a central bank that was on the verge of doing QT and hike, illustrating the intensification of its policy dilemma
From the
@WSJ
:
"Americans have flocked to cash-like investments, lured by higher returns after years of little income. Assets in money-market funds have surged to a record $5.5 trillion. Banks are increasingly using CDs to lure back depositors. And one of the most popular bond
Once again,
#China
's exports and imports contracted by more than consensus forecasts:
Exports fell by 14.5% in July (year-on-year), worse than the consensus forecast of 12.5%; and
Imports declined by 12.4%, a lot worse than the expected 5%.
The numbers confirm that the
#economy
's
The strong get stronger and the rich get richer while the weak get weaker and the poor struggle more. A larger disparity of wealth is one of the many awful outcomes of the
#covid
economic shock, a great unequalizer which is also worsening the inequality of opportunity and income.
On this Father's Day, I remember with great love and gratitude my late father.
For 23-years of my life, he was there to support and inspire me, stressing the importance of education, kindness, purpose, and enabling others.
His inspiration has been a constant companion
#fathersday
Remember this from a week ago? The yield on the US 10-year government bond is now trading at 4.55%, helping the dollar to appreciate above 106 as measured by the DXY index.
Meanwhile, the broadening recognition that rates will be high for longer is fueling more discussions about
Today’s massive US market reactions to Jay Powell’s remarks highlight the communication challenge facing the Fed:
The more the Chair tilts his remarks dovish,the greater the loosening of financial conditions and, potentially, the bigger the risk to meeting the inflation objective
Very hard to say whether the last 3-days are part of a bottom-formation for
#markets
or just a counter-trend move.
Looked at Sept-Mar 2008/09 and picked two bounces in late Oct/Nov.
Both amounted to around 17%. and both were erased thereafter.
Bottom line: A really hard call.
Away from the specifics of this case:
The prolonged period of very cheap money and abundant liquidity encouraged some asset managers to offer relatively liquid products that invest in relatively illiquid assets.
These products behave differently in a world of patchy
#liquidity
.
Gold prices are up again this morning, almost 1%, as more investors view it as a better hedge against geopolitical risks than government bonds due to US inflation concerns.
Gold is also seeing support from central banks, some of whom are motivated by more than just inflation and
So sad to hear the news of the passing of
#CharlieMunger
.
My thoughts and prayers are with his family, his friends and colleagues at
#BerkshireHathaway
and, of course, his long-time business partner and friend
@WarrenBuffett
.
For so many decades, the two of them led an investment
Thank you
@BBCNews
for replaying this in your best of 2020. I had missed it. It’s superb. A brilliant application of sport commentary to everyday dog activities. Thank you very much
@MrAndrewCotter
for this genius ... and for making me smile during a sad time.