William 🌁🥥🌴
@wiscottcurtis
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Following
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618
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26,196
Liam to some. Northern Californian, UCLA grad student, election data nerd. 🥰
Bay Area
Joined June 2017
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This is gonna break the Republican Party. I think this is what’s finally gonna do it
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And just like that, the total amount of land represented by Democrats in the House has doubled
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Yeah, it’s a different system, and the procedures of that system were followed. Problem is, those differences are bad, and this case is an excellent example of why many of the differences at hand are bad! The fact that the UK accepts majority convictions of juries is bad!
Right I know these people got blitzed by UK lawyers but I promised oomf a thread, so I’ll give a thread on Lucy Letby & why American lawyers need to actually either (1) stay in their lane or (2) actually do some research on the English criminal law system before commenting. 🧵
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Hating Pete Buttigieg isn’t a personality. Hating Hillary Clinton isn’t a personality. Hating Bernie Sanders isn’t a personality. Hating Joe Biden isn’t a personality. Hating Elizabeth Warren isn’t a personality. Hating Donald Trump isn’t a personality
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The character of the neighborhood is everyone having a car and sitting in traffic all the time.
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I just accidentally liked a year old Instagram post of my high school boyfriend at 2 am on a Friday night AMA
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JESUS CHRIST TWITTER! THE ONLY NON-COSTAL STATE WHEN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE WAS CREATED WAS PENNSYLVANIA!
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The desert West doesn’t have a water problem. It has an alfalfa problem. And it’s caused by archaic water rights that exist in perpetuity valuing the profits of an extremely small group of old farmers over the rest of us.
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I met representatives the Bel Air Homeowner’s association today. Legit crazy. “You’re so entitled, do you know anything about economics?” “Fuck UCLA!” - in response to my desire for there to be a subway stop on campus at UCLA.
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The fact that you can infer anything about guilt from silence is bad, and creates bad incentives! The press restrictions are bad, and actually completely illogical for a case that has already gotten so much coverage!
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@questionableway
I have seen like 4 separate people (including me) tweet the exact same thing. It’s actually insane
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I feel like when Americans make some criticism of other countries, especially when it comes to civil rights and social liberty, people say “actually, you just don’t understand that that’s just the way we do things.”
I do understand that, the way you do things is bad and unjust!
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They edited this out for us pacific time zoners
“Pass around party bottom” being uttered on CNN. Oh 2024 is gonna be good.
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So I read this entire thing, and never does she say anything specific about why she is leaving the Democratic Party. It’s all about how she won’t bend to a partisan agenda. But what exactly about the Democratic Party does she find so objectionable?
Becoming an Independent won’t change my work in the Senate; my service to Arizona remains the same. Read my full Op-ed in the Arizona Republic 3/3 ⬇️
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If there’s one bill we should kill the filibuster for, it’s HR 1
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The Daily podcast today is about the Great Salt Lake. It’s mentioned off hand that 70% of the water that is diverted to agriculture, and only 15% is used by cities, but the entire thesis of the argument is that there are too many people moving there using too much water.
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And it’s not a good retort to say “well look at how fucked up the US is, maybe we should all just stay in our own lanes”. Yeah! It’s bad here too! It’s just that when due process is afforded in the US (which isn’t nearly often enough), we have really strong defendant rights
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The NYT Needle was one of the best pieces of electoral journalism, if not the best, in the past decade, and the haters are completely missing the point of what election night journalism is about.
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Yeah, why is this the issue? Over 3/4 of the first round voters wanted not Adams, and the majority of those people wanted Garcia over Adams. This is literally giving more people what they want. Why is it so hard to understand that first choices aren’t the epitome of democracy?
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@ashtonbirdie
@jaa_9695
There are three ways to become a Disney princess: (1) Be born royal (2) Marry royal (3) Perform an act of heroism. Mulan fits the third. It’s actual Disney law. Don’t test a gay on Disney.
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Yet again, I’m devastated by the 2018 Florida senate race
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If fucking Bill Nelson had won, Dems would be strong favorites to retake the Senate rn...
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There is a disconnect all over the west between who we think and blame for using water and who actually uses water. Growing water intensive crops in the desert is unsustainable, and we need to start reappropriating water away from them.
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Can I just say that Wikipedia is amazing and was unfairly demonized by middle school teachers? There's this incredibly vast and detailed collection of knowledge that is impeccably organized. All the inaccuracy stuff is overhyped.
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I just want a boyfriend who cares as much about elections as I do
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I’m really being turned off of the DSA. What an awful statement.
DSA is steadfast in expressing our solidarity with Palestine.
Today’s events are a direct result of Israel’s apartheid regime—a regime that receives billions in funding from the United States.
End the violence. End the Occupation. Free Palestine. 1/5
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@Ian_Gay_briel
@keegan_tweets
I also googled what a scoop bagel is and why it exists. Fucking LA
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Wait when did crayons get so cheap. 120 crayons is $8. I remember being so excited and grateful for getting a box of 64 because I knew they were expensive!
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Like the Ticketmaster guy literally stood up in front of me 6 inches from my face, finger wagging, telling me how corrupt and incompetent Metro is and how stupid I am for wanting a subway when clearly the rest of the world has moved on to building monorails
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In a sea of reader comments suggesting building permit moratoriums and predicting the impending doom, Bill here (one of the few commenters actually from Utah) states the obvious solution that even the reporter didn’t mention
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Growth is so fucking valuable. And artificially stifling growth so that we can keep growing fucking alfalfa in the desert is insane. Something like 40% of the water in the state goes just to growing alfalfa. That’s more than twice as much as all municipal water uses.
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It’s really hard to spin this as a both sides issue when one side has authored neutral terms of surrender.
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And it is journalistic malpractice to not question this status quo. The crisis cannot be averted if we keep ourselves tied up in archaic water rights systems. They will strangle us.
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I was the “arrogant and misguided” student! UCLA deserves a station! Sorry if that triggers the Bel Air multi-millionaires 🥰
Fred Rosen of Bel Air, former Ticketmaster CEO, went to LA Metro’s Sepulveda meeting. He met “arrogant and misguided” UCLA students that felt “entitled” to station. He says there is no money for subway, and lawsuit will depose Metro Chief Planning Officer over alleged conflicts.
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@alplicable
@nycsouthpaw
AMMONIUM THIOGLYCOLATE. Reese Witherspoon says Immonium Thygocolate, and it hurts me every time someone quotes it.
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To the people upset about this: the BDS movement is pretty clear that Starbucks isn’t and shouldn’t be a boycott target, and centering it as such is actually detrimental to the movement overall as it takes away from the real targets, like chevron and HP.
Sugar & Spice disappoint in new advertisement for Starbucks.
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Jon Ossoff is a US Senator, this first “O” in the roll call. The last time there was an “O” in the roll call? Barack Obama. Really makes you think
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So this might actually be the most 2020 election outcome ever. Nobody is particularly happy, and everyone has something to be mad about and argue over
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I spent 5 minutes on threads for the first time in a few months and I am again disappointed. The comments are full of other suggestions: your apartment, your job, sporting events, concerts, your kids soccer game. I’m so tired
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My interaction with the Bel Air HOA made it into the nandert video!!
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“You don’t know what the fuck is going you. You couldn’t tell shit from shinola”
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Support Ranked Choice Voting to stop the cycle of divisive, negative campaigns
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So here’s the thing: neither Low nor Simitian is incentivized to ask for a recount. Given these results, they both go to the runoff with Liccardo. And somebody has to ask for a recount, it doesn’t happen automatically.
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The UC system has done more for disadvantaged and underrepresented students than the Ivy Leagues ever have. The elite university model is inherently incompatible with social mobility and equity.
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Well, looks like Dems need to do the impossible and pick up a seat or two in the Senate while still holding the house under new gerrymandered maps.
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@questionableway
The way this entire investigation came about is also insane. The fact that it was started by people who had pretty baseless suspicions (and a very clear motive to blame something other than systemic failures in the unit) is really damning
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Here's the line I think we need to be clear about re RCV: Peltola got 29% of the vote from Begich voters. Grouping "Republicans" together to say they got "61%" of the vote is just not an accurate representation of that data.
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Spoiler alert: it will not be Ro Khanna
Happy to hear
@RoKhanna
is in the mix for U.S. Senate. Ro was a co-chair of my presidential campaign, has a bold vision for America and is a proven fighter for working people.
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There is of course a lot to be said about regulating the water uses of particularly non-westerners moving to the west who want front lawns and swimming pools. But growing populations can be sustainable pretty easily. The problem is the few farmers who are using way too much.
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@Simon_El_Gato__
I’d be a little worried about what might happen if the landlord falls out with her. Does he allege she is behind on rent? Plenty of issues that arise when you don’t have a contract
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Oh yeah, it’s the guy who got in my face to yell at me at a community input meeting to tell me UCLA students are too entitled and don’t deserve a station on campus. He called me stupid, saying “you don’t have a fucking clue”. His good friend Bob Anderson told me “Fuck UCLA”.
My story this afternoon on KCRW
@metrolosangeles
is studying building a rail line through L.A.’s Sepulveda Pass, but a Bel Air resident and former CEO of Ticketmaster is vowing to stop if it’s a subway below his community.
#KCRW
#MetroLA
#405
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Anecdotal reports and interviews with voters are absolutely worthless to the viewers or readers who want to know who is gonna win. And the best way to figure out who is gonna win is to put together all the data from partial returns in a Bayesian model. End of story.
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They are fucking deplorables and Hillary was right to never apologize
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Am I the only person who’s glad Members of Congress are getting vaccinated?
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@SpencerJCox
Hi Governor. I hope you really listened to Natalie and Noah. Trans people in this country are losing their rights to live their lives as themselves, and people like JKR who want to deny trans people healthcare and legal recognition are, at the end of the day, on the wrong side.
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There is a huge story here about the wealthy entrenched interests of a vanishingly small few who use archaic laws and treaties to extract wealth at the expense of everyone else. And their hold on power is apparently so strong that you can’t even talk about them.
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The reason this isn’t just incorrect but also disingenuous and bad is that this is the kind of narrative pushed by largely right-wing pundits who try to defend the EC as a vanguard for the voice of the non-elite to keep a system that disproportionately favors their voters.
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This is probably the most my vote will ever matter in my entire life. I voted for Low. Because of my 1 vote, he is going to the runoff. That’s wild.
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The journalist’s solutions are raising the cost per gallon of water and denying more building permits. Malpractice.
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This Orange County update was very small, but is a little bit of good news for Porter and Levin, and good-ish news for Steel, who lost this batch to Chen, but by a small margin. She still leads by about 14.75k
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You’re missing the billions of $ in property tax exemptions that urban golf courses receive. Legally, they are basically public parks, and thus cannot be redeveloped without approval from the state. It’s one of the most nauseating dirty little secrets of CA land use policy
Even in capitalist terms, how is an LA golf course more profitable than using the land for market rate housing/businesses? Who the hell is paying that much for golf. What am I missing here
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Seriously, if anyone is still not voting for Biden, fucking block me, I don't want to hear your fucking excuses.
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How far do you have to travel to reach a congressional district controlled by the opposite party of your congressional district? For me, it's around 3 hours to Visalia and Devin Nunes
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In
#AZ06
, Engel has cut Ciscomani’s lead in half, with a lot more left to come from Pima. There is also a bit more to come from R-leaning Cochise and Pima. It’s gonna be very close
Pima County has tabulated 24,637 ballots
Est. 71,406 remain (82% complete)
Batch breakdown
Governor
@KariLake
34
@katiehobbs
66
Senate
@bgmasters
31
@CaptMarkKelly
67
AZSOS
@RealMarkFinchem
32.5
@Adrian_Fontes
67.5
AZAG
@AbrahamHamadeh
34.8
@krismayes
65.2
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A visual representation of the insanity of the last CA Gubernatorial Recall. Voters had to choose one name in the first three columns.
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@tiredgenerally
It’s not even that. It’s using growth of the white population, apparently not accounting for growth of non-white populations. So the results indicate that upzoning is correlated with population growth
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@decunningham2
Only in the first round. Nobody got a majority. So it makes sense to ask who people would like if their first choice doesn’t win. And it turns out, most of those people wanted Garcia over Adams
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Santa Clara Updates
#CA16
! LOW LEADS AGAIN! Low got 19 votes, Simitian got 5, Low leads district-wide by just *2 votes!*
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The Church of Scientology headquarters and some fancy mansion precincts in Beverly Hills were the only precincts between downtown LA and Santa Monica to vote for Trump
Karen Bass in 2010 at a ribbon-cutting for a Scientology church:
"That is why the words are exciting of your Founder L. Rob Hubbard...The Church of Scientology I know has made a difference, because your creed is a universal creed and one that speaks to all people everywhere"
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She also does not indicate who she will caucus with, but I’m guessing it will still be the Democrats. If it’s not, it would be a slap in the face of every Arizonan who elected a Democrat 4 years ago.
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Using the new 2019 Census data, the following states would all lose 1 seat:
CA
IL
MI
MN
NY
PA
RI
WV
And these would gain 1:
AZ
CO
FL
MT
NC
OR
And TX would gain 2
Big change since last time: CA-53 is taken away and given to MT.
The 435th seat is OH-16
The 436th is FL-29
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I hate that this is the Reupublican we had the ability to unseat, and not Steve King
Actually they’re being caused at least in part by this thing called
#ClimateChange
. Remember I told you about how it’s also causing the
#SeaLevelRise
threatening
#SoFla
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A direct quote from the NYT journalist who flew in to Utah to bring this story to a national audience: “The underlying problem is population growth … and it didn’t seems like there was any appetite to do anything to curb that growth now”
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Really is a shame we won't be able to crack open those Presidential or Senate second choices. Woulda been fun.
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The ultimate purpose of electoral journalism is to tell the story of the election. And the most important beat in the story of the election is who wins the election. And when we have the information to tell the public who is likely to win, we should put that information out ASAP
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Mistrust in political journalism is about bias. The needle is not biased. That is plain. The reason people don't like the needle is because it was the first thing to shatter the media narratives about 2016. They were bad, and needed to be thrown out as soon as possible.
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@AlexAnotherOne
I was mostly just shocked. They are clearly some of the most entitled people on the planet. They really think they should be able to completely derail this entire project because they don’t like it personally. And they think they can. And what’s scary is they might be right
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In case you were wondering what happens if Simitian and Low tie for second, the answer is chaos. They both get to go to the general! The first three-way November election for Congress since top two was enacted! (Subsection 3 is the relevant one)
San Mateo just updated in
#CA16
. Simitian gets 12, Low gets 15. Margin district-wide is now just 17 votes. Another update from Santa Clara is expected within the hour
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Here's the thing: RCV advantages consensus choices. That just isn't hard right Republicans these days.
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Biden is clearly not senile. He knows what’s going on. He can answer complex foreign policy questions. He can communicate a full thought.
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@lxeagle17
@GalenMetzger1
Yeah it’s really surprising. LA County has dropped a lot of disproportionate in person vote tho
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@dieworkwear
@orkoliberal
One of my favorite ways to get from LA to the bay and back. Observation car, nice packed lunch, glass of wine, the ocean. $45 ticket.
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Nancy Pelosi gets exactly two years as speaker for 4 different presidents
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This cat is a twink
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So, uh, this funny little scenario I posted about for a laugh actually happened, and the weird incentives structure I discussed did actually cause neither of the candidates to ask for a recount. Lol
#CA16
In case you were wondering what happens if Simitian and Low tie for second, the answer is chaos. They both get to go to the general! The first three-way November election for Congress since top two was enacted! (Subsection 3 is the relevant one)
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Kinda weird how my generation is gonna be the last generation to, like, go to movie theaters
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8 new ratings changes from Sabato, all in favor of Dems, including a massive shift of
#WA03
from solid R to only lean R. I'm telling you, this district is the story of last night.
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All these ballot photos are telling me just how bad ballot design can be
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