This week's DDHQ Podcast features a close look at #NJGov with the great @SteveKornacki. Steve joined @geoffreyvs for a map-rich discussion of how recent trends could influence the result in New Jersey between Mikie Sherrill (D) and Jack Ciattarelli (R). https://t.co/OI5cJ0fVyT

You can read the whole piece here, with all its interesting details: https://t.co/gzCttoPo9k And you can sign up to receive our FREE newsletter in your inbox every Monday morning here:

At this point, finally, VA Dems could pass new district lines. Should they succeed, it will set a new standard for political maneuvering to accomplish mid-decade redistricting in our current moment. This could encourage other states with tough paths to also pursue redistricting.

Of course, VA Democrats need voters to actually approve a redistricting constitutional amendment. Good news for Dems is that CA Dems have already laid out a roadmap: Make the vote all about Trump. CA is bluer than VA, but anti-Trump argument could still work in light-blue VA.

VA Dems would need to delay the state's primary. The 2026 primary is set for 6/16 with filing period 3/16-4/2. But special election would happen after 4/2, so primary likely would have to happen in August to give Dems time to hold special, get result certified & pass new lines.

Dems could buttress case for holding unusual special election by tying redistricting to vote on const. amend. to repeal VA's gay marriage ban & guarantee right to same-sex marriage. SCOTUS may consider case that could affect nat'l legality so Dems could argue it's necessary.

Voters agreed to 5 amendments in a June 19, 1928, special election that made major alterations to state government during the governorship of Harry Byrd Sr. Plus, VA last held an election for any type of ballot measure on a non-November date in Jan 1956. https://t.co/gzCttoPo9k

Yet the special election move is the haziest part of the Democrats’ push to redistrict VA. Votes on constitutional amendments in Virginia nearly always happen at the November general election. Last time voters voted on a const. amend. outside November was way back in 1928.

VA's constitution says an election to approve a constitutional amendment must happen 90+ days after final passage by the legislature, so hypothetical passage in late January would set the stage for a special election sometime in late April.

Assuming they pass the constitutional amendment & have full control after the election, Democrats will have to quickly pass the amendment a 2nd time in January near the start of the regular General Assembly session. They face a time crunch & cannot wait.

Still, the GOP might hold onto the attorney general's office in the 2025 election, and some Republicans have already expressed a desire for the AG to issue an opinion regarding whether the 2025 election has started constitutionally or not.

The good news for Dems is that a Dem trifecta is the most likely outcome next week. The Dem-controlled state Senate isn't up again until 2027 and Dems are favored in #VAGov and the House of Delegates. That would give them full legislative control.

If Democrats pass this amendment, they then need to win a trifecta (full control) on Nov. 4. While the governor has no role in passing constitutional amendments, future legislation drawing favorable maps for Democrats could involve the gov.

The GOP argues that Dems have missed the window to pass an amendment before the 2025 election because early voting began on Sept. 19, which could be interpreted as the start of the 2025 election rather than Tuesday, Nov. 4. This could become key to future legal challenges.

That Dems could pass such an amendment is down to the vagaries of legislative rules. In May 2024, Gov. Youngkin called a special session of the General Assembly. But the legislature never formally ended it, which allowed Dem leaders to call members back to Richmond this week.

1st hurdle for Dems: VA's constitutional amendment process. Legislature passes an amendment w/ a simple majority in each chamber. Then the state must hold a general election for the legislature. Then the new legislature must pass the same amendment a 2nd time with no changes.

In our weekly Substack newsletter, @geoffreyvs digs into the sequence of events necessary for Virginia Democrats to redistrict their state's congressional map in time for the 2026 election. It's not impossible, but there are MANY steps. https://t.co/gzCttoPo9k

The one and only @SteveKornacki joined the Decision Desk HQ Podcast to talk about #NJGov. He told @geoffreyvs that one New Jersey Democrat he'd spoken with said that Mikie Sherrill (D) "is losing the campaign but is going to win the election anyway." https://t.co/syS3lPXiJV

Virginia Dems’ redistricting play is **very** time-sensitive if they want to affect 2026 map. Have to pass const. amendment before 2025 election, pass it again in next leg session early next year, then have statewide vote 90 days after passing 2nd time.

Check out my conversation with @geoffreyvs on the state of play in NJ. I really like their format of incorporating maps and charts. (And next time I'll try to remember to wear my Rutgers shirt.)