Neel Kashkari
@neelkashkari
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President @MinneapolisFed . Views are my own. RT ≠ E.
Minneapolis, MN
Joined January 2013
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RIP my good buddy Winslow. You were a great dog and friend and lived a long, full life. Almost 14 years for a Newfie! 2006-2020 🙏🏽
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Thrilled to announce the birth of our son, Tecumseh Sebastian Kashkari, 6lbs 13 oz. Mom and baby doing great. Dad and sister Uly over the moon. 🇺🇸
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Something I’ve been meaning to ask: Why do
#Bitcoin
enthusiasts have laser beams coming out of their eyes?
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Here come the worker shortage stories again. Hint: try raising wages.
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This is interesting but 2 narrow. This isn't case of 1 fraudulent company in a serious industry. Entire notion of crypto is nonsense. Not useful 4 payments. No inflation hedge. No scarcity. No taxing authority. Just a tool of speculation & greater fools.
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Yes. My actual quote: "I was actually happy to see how Chair Powell's Jackson hole speech was received. People now understand the seriousness of our commitment to getting inflation back down to 2%."
As I have said, the signal to noise ratio on twitter seems to decline by the day.
Kinda crazy how these headline aggregator accounts spread inaccuracies. He didn't use the word "delighted" and yet...
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Tearing down a statue of US Grant in the name of civil rights speaks volumes about the need for more and better education. Robert E Lee must be looking up at us and smiling.
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Please do point me to the communities being lifted out of poverty due to crypto, other than scammers ripping off unsuspecting people in pump and dump schemes.
More fabrications and distortions from the Fed &
@neelkashkari
about crypto. We're seeing transformative real-world use cases that are lifting communities out of poverty every day. I guess someone feels threatened.
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If Treasury sends us checks, we will spend every penny taking out food from local restaurants.
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Twitter should create an option of auto-muting all anonymous (coward) accounts. But that would kill-off much of fintwit I guess.
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There's something very emotional for firms about wages. Paying more for oil, or steel, or corn is no big deal. That's just the market. But if they can't find workers at the wages they are used to paying, that's a historic worker shortage. (end)
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I’m sure this is somehow the Fed’s fault
Arby's Teams With Minneapolis Distillery Tattersall For Fry-Flavored Vodka
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Roses are red
Violets are blue
Last year I said there’s slack in the labor market
Today it’s still true
#FedValentines
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I love when
@uber
estimates ride is 2 min away. Then you accept and it jumps to 10 min. Cool feature
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Apple lowered the price of existing models. Is that inflation or deflation?
Hey
@federalreserve
if the most popular phone in the USA goes from $699 to $829 in 1 year for same storage, while losing a wall charger and headphones, does that 18.6% show up anywhere in the official inflation numbers?
@neelkashkari
I'm not trolling. This is a serious question.
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Genuinely curious, Lloyd: are you going back out to movie theaters, restaurants and commercial planes? Or are you sequestering until there’s a vax since you are in high risk age group? The people will determine the lockdown based on their own sense of safety.
Hospitals are not overwhelmed; most of us will be exposed anyway since we can’t sequester until there’s a vax; and we know which groups need protection from worst outcomes. Is the public health benefit from broad lockdowns at this point worth such extreme damage to livelihoods?
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What’s most shocking to me about the video of George Floyd is not only that he was killed helplessly by police officers. It is that they knew they were surrounded by witnesses and being taped. They never blinked. They never hesitated. /1
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Twitter serving up 9 hour old tweets is not helpful this morning
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MMTers should launch a diet plan: Eat whatever you want (cheeseburgers, pizza, ice cream) and never gain weight. It would be very popular.
Step 1) eat whatever you want.
Step 2) stop eating before you gain weight.
By definition it must work!
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Roses are red Blah blah blah blah Blah blah blah blah There’s still slack in the labor market
#FedValentines
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Want to open schools? Do a hard lockdown now for 6 weeks to get the virus under control then open schools late September. I haven't heard any other strategy to reopen safely that sounds remotely plausible given rampant spread in many areas. via
@WSJ
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We were at maximum employment. We are now at maximumer employment.
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Request for econ reporters: just as when you write about bonds you must point out yields and prices move in opposite directions, whenever you write about worker shortages, make it a rule to also discuss wages. It’ll be a public service. Thanks
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Roses are red
Violets are blue
In 2017 I compared Bitcoin to Beanie Babies
My apology to Beanie Babies is long overdue
#FedValentines
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Maybe we should judge labor market tightness by wage growth itself. So we can finally bury the absurd notion of “worker shortages” in a low wage growth environment.
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My father, Prof Chaman Kashkari, passed away today at 83. Dedicated his life to ending hunger. President GHWB recognized him for it. (1/2)
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Today is the day I became a true Minnesotan. Didn’t catch any fish but did drink beer... (so got the authentic experience).
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After asking where I️ work, customs agent at LAX just asked abt crypto. Said his friend took out $35k HELOC to invest. What do I️ think? Hmm.
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I’m trying to figure out why Minnesotans think we have flattened the curve. Which curve is that?
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This
@wsj
article captures the extreme emotions around the labor market: "historic, severe worker shortages." Sounds like a real crisis. Is it?
(thread)
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Please see my new op-ed: "The Fed should pause interest-rate hikes and allow the U.S. economic recovery to continue"
@wsj
via
@WSJOpinion
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Maybe it’s not really the tightest labor market in generations.
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Last night after my town hall, a man came up to me and described himself as an “Austrian school economist” and said he could prove falling fertility rates in advanced economies were the fault of central banks. 🤔
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Please see my new essay: Why we missed on inflation and implications for monetary policy going forward.
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Actually I have 2 engineering degrees. But that's why I am asking the question.
Non-engineer posits answer to his engineering question.
Fail.
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@steve_larrison
Thanks. A few years ago I publicly declared the crypto space a burning garbage dump of fraud. Didn’t realize it was this blatant.
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"Historic worker shortage"
Compensation, $15 dollars per hour. PhD strongly preferred.
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This interview with Dr. Fauci was outstanding. What a wonderful public servant we are so lucky to have working on behalf of all of us.
Four years before the COVID-19 pandemic, Dr. Fauci told 60 Minutes he was concerned about a flu-like "respiratory-borne virus that’s easily transmittable… [with] a high degree of morbidity and mortality… similar to the very tragic pandemic flu of 1918.”
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I really like Marty Feldstein but really don’t understand his argument. Essentially: the Fed should raise rates (which may cause a recession) so it has room to cut rates if it causes a recession. Huh?
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It was as if they were saying: this is what we’ve been trained to do. We are trained to use deadly force against black men. And if they die, it’s their own fault for being in that situation. It indicates institutional racism that is actively taught and reinforced.
#GeorgeFloyd
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Congratulations to
@AGEllison
and his team for presenting an outstanding, overwhelming case.
#JusticeForGeorgeFloyd
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It took 5 min for this to get resolved via Twitter when phone calls and e-mails over 18 hours got me nowhere. It was totally worth triggering all the trolls. 👍🏽
Hey
@Airbnb
need help. Your phone operators are getting me nowhere. Made a res. Host called me to said it was already booked. Host trying to cancel but can’t for some reason. I have called your line. Host has called. No luck. Can’t make another res while this is pending. Pls help
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I'm trying to understand Libra. I read the white paper and don't really get it. Say I live in India and have rupees and want to buy Libra. I give Facebook my rupees and they create an account for me with Libra in it. What does Facebook then do with the rupees? /thread
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Never heard this before...
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Dearest Newsome went on to doggie heaven today. He lived a long, interesting life - especially for a 120lb Newfie. We'll miss you buddy. Say hello to Winslow for us. RIP. April 1, 2009 - December 27, 2021
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Maybe Fed should just admit: "We will keep rates at zero until inflation is staring us in the face (and then we will freak out)."
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Thanks, but imagine we abolished the central bank and went back to gold standard. The money supply, and hence inflation rate, is then set by gold miners and how much gold they happen to dig up in a given year. That makes no sense.
I disagree completely and think that we shouldn’t pick it and the market should decide it, but really respect the level of engagement by
@neelkashkari
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i honestly don't even know what this means.
UPS, Fedex Decline After WSJ Report Says Amazon Seeks Fewer Fees.
But
@neelkashkari
said he couldn't find inflation anywhere
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So what do we do? Stop trying to assess whether we are at max employment by looking at the unemployment rate and EPOP. We will know it when wage growth sustainably picks up to levels that, considering productivity, imply future inflation at or above our 2 percent target. /end
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I appreciate u responding to my essay. If so easy to spot bubbles, why tell us? Launch HF and short 'em. Make trillions. No? Just talk then.
Wolf Richter: Dear Fed, It’s Not “Really Hard to Spot Bubbles”
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Where are the anonymous finance twitter trolls? You promised you would show up. Where's Rudy?
#disappointed
#AskNeel
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Thank you to those of our Asian American colleagues who were able to come in today to proudly stand united against racism and xenophobia.
@MinneapolisFed
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Seriously, nothing on twitter brings a smile to my face more than "crypto is the Fed's fault." Undershooting our inflation target for 10 years... imagine if we'd actually hit it!
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Nice job on the article. My reaction: Mostly whining. We are all looking for an explanation why demand is outstripping supply but not showing up in price. The answer: Occam's razor. Demand isn't outstripping supply (yet). How will we know? When it shows up in price.
.
@SteveMatthews12
@boes_
and
@jeannasmialek
went around to industries that are supposedly seeing tight labor markets (trucking, construction, childcare) to figure out why they're still not cranking up wages.
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@FaceTheNation
@margbrennan
@MinneapolisFed
@RaphaelBostic
@AtlantaFed
@federalreserve
@DallasFed
@RobSKaplan
Unfortunately, my base case scenario is that we will see a second wave of the virus across the US, probably this fall. We're already seeing growth in many states. Few (5%?) Americans have been exposed thus far and a vaccine is a long way off. 1/2
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I don't know who Mr. Gartman is, but I like him already. Happy New Year!
"Mincing no words, we have never been fans of Mr. Kashkari, who replaced Mr. Kocherlakota on January 1st of 2016." - Dennis Gartman
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1 thing I've learned abt twitter is the louder the critic, generally the thinner the skin. I confess finding amusement in needling critics calling them conspiracists or goldbugs. Its fun to watch swashbuckling pirates of free market capitalism get easily upset. I mean no offense.
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Instead of doubling character limit, twitter should do what most companies do when they are out of ideas: buy something.
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Utterly useless as a currency, at least bitcoin is helping coal make a resurgence. "The lofty prices of cryptocurrencies have investors sinking money into electricity generation, risking a backlash"
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Smoking ribs by snowfall. Four hours down, one to go. 🎄👍🏽
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@FaceTheNation
@margbrennan
@MinneapolisFed
@RaphaelBostic
@AtlantaFed
@federalreserve
@DallasFed
@RobSKaplan
If there is a second wave, I would expect the unemployment rate to climb again. I think the real number today is around 20%. 2/2
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QE conspiracists can say this is all about balance sheet growth. Someone explain how swapping one short term risk free instrument (reserves) for another short term risk free instrument (t-bills) leads to equity repricing. I don’t see it. /end
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Please see my new essay on monetary policy
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So excited - just got my first Covid shot! Pfizer. Was randomly selected by health provider once MN opened up criteria. Wife wasn’t selected so had to hunt online for appt for her. Odd process that benefits those who sit in front of a computer all day clicking refresh.
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I recently realized a danger in declaring we are at max employment (I find myself doing this too): Every time we think we are there, and then the economy creates a lot of jobs and lures people back in, we then think: well now we REALLY MUST be at max employment. 1/
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I should just pin this tweet.... once again someone please explain to me how higher rates (which will mean slower job and real wage growth) will help low income families? Answer: They won’t.
The question comes back to whether they are aware of the effects of their policies and intentional about it (criminal) or unaware and unintentional (stupid).
Either way, it's a bad look.
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This op-ed is absurd. The author asks: maybe capital standards are too high? We just need more bailout tools? I guess it was everyone's fault but management's. SMH "Lehman insider: why the bank could and should have been saved"
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😁 “Kashkari’s critics seem to be well represented by gold bugs, Bitcoiners, hard money die-hards, Austrian school economic enthusiasts and the like.”
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We’re beyond maximum employment
You've been kidnapped. Your kidnappers allow you to keep tweeting to pretend everything is alright. What would you tweet that would alarm your followers without the kidnappers knowing you're asking for help?
"And then I put in the exact amount of garlic the recipe called for."
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I thought the "tongue-in-cheekiness" of my tweet would be obvious. Allow me to translate: We keep saying we are at max employment and then all these people choose to work. It suggests we weren't really at max employment.
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Never imagined the joy of feeding your 6 month old baby girl various baby foods as she discovers taste for the first time. Bananas are the absolute winner. 🍌
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I'm an MMT skeptic - I think it is really MMP - a philosophy rather than an economic theory. Time and time again countries have gotten into trouble printing money to fund all their fiscal dreams. At some point the bill comes due in the form of inflation.
#AskNeel
#askneel
isn't MMT borrowing from the future? Why allow so much easy money when all that happens is corps buy back stock and donnie keeps adding to the annual deficit (over $1 trillion for FY 2019). Why should we have any faith in an economy that requires ever increasing debt?
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Remember, whenever a bank CEO says capital requirements are holding back lending, it’s utter nonsense.
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Boarding a flight and gate agent just announced they don’t want to check any more bags because flight is heavy. Just carry them on. Hmmm.
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While i'm dunking on bitcoin, this seems worth reupping
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ABCs of mathematics. Isn’t there a better math term that starts with K? This one isn’t particularly helpful in learning to pronounce letters.
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He was an immigrant from India. Came to US for education. So thankful for what America did for his family. Wanted same for others. RIP 🙏🏽
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I forgot Jefferson Davis was captured dressed in his wife's clothes trying to escape. Let's put up a statue of that
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I am waiting for a CDO-squared of dead coins.
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This criticism of
@RaphaelBostic
is ridiculous. I said the same things he did - so criticize me too. No one advocated for releasing criminals or attacked our criminal justice system. 1/
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