Texas Business Outlook Survey Special Questions: Wage and price growth expectations eased in June. Texas firms surveyed expect wages to increase 3.1% over the next 12 months. See all of the questions and results:

Banking Conditions Survey: Loan volume and demand accelerated in June after little to no growth in the prior survey. Strength was driven by commercial lending, while volumes continued to decline slightly for mortgages and consumer loans.

Energy Survey Special Questions: 46 percent of E&P executives expect their firms’ oil production would decrease significantly from June 2025 to June 2026 if WTI were $50 per barrel. Read more special questions results:

Energy Survey: Activity in the oil and gas sector contracted slightly in the second quarter of 2025, according to oil and gas executives. The business activity index turned negative, declining from 3.8 in the first quarter 2025 to -8.1 in the second.

Texas Retail Survey: Retail sales continued to decline in June, according to business executives. The sales index was largely unchanged at -29.5. Retailers’ inventories shrunk, with the index remaining in negative territory at -2.8 in June.

Texas Service Sector Survey: Texas service sector activity remained in contractionary territory in June, according to business executives. The revenue index held fairly steady at -4.1, suggesting revenue declined at about the same pace as in May.

Texas Manufacturing Survey: Texas factory activity was largely unchanged in June, according to business executives. The production index held steady at 1.3, with the near-zero reading indicating a second month of flat output.

RT @federalreserve: @federalreserve @FDICgov @USOCC seek comment to address payments and check fraud:

Trimmed Mean PCE: The inflation rate over the 12 months ending in May was 2.5%. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate was 2.3% on a 12-month basis, and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 2.7% on a 12-month basis.

Increases in Mexico’s agricultural sector, industrial production, exports and retail sales drove the nation’s modest first-quarter economic growth, which was undermined by decreases in employment and remittances, contributing to a mixed economic outlook.

A new report from the research department of the Dallas Fed looks at how the future of artificial intelligence could provide a sustained increase in productivity by accelerating the discovery of new ideas, resulting in higher living standards nationwide.

Texas Employment Forecast: Jobs will increase 2.0% in 2025. The forecast is based on an average of four models that include projected U.S. GDP, oil futures and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes. The forecast implies 279,600 jobs will be added this year.

New this quarter: Agricultural Survey respondents were asked supplemental questions about the impact of tariffs and trade policy. Read those results:.

Agricultural Survey: Bankers responding to the second-quarter agriculture survey reported mildly improved conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District, encompassing Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico.

RT @DallasFed: New Report: There is little evidence so far that generative artificial intelligence technology may pose a significant risk o….

RT @federalreserve: Read Chair Powell's full opening statement from the #FOMC press conference (PDF):   https://t.co….

Energy Indicators: Texas solar power generation grew faster compared to other fuel types in 2024, although natural gas and wind generation continue to make up the highest shares of Texas’ electricity grid.

El Paso Economic Indicators: Employment in El Paso expanded, and the unemployment rate ticked up. Wages dipped but were still up compared with levels a year ago. Existing-home sales and months of inventory ticked down slightly.

Register Now: Join us in Dallas on July 10 for an event featuring @federalreserve Governor Chris Waller. This event will provide a valuable opportunity to engage with one of the leading voices in economic policy.

Do you lead a #CDFI? Share your story in the 2025 CDFI Survey to help policymakers understand how your organization is faring and how policies & other initiatives may help. The survey closes Friday, June 13.