Nice job on the article. My reaction: Mostly whining. We are all looking for an explanation why demand is outstripping supply but not showing up in price. The answer: Occam's razor. Demand isn't outstripping supply (yet). How will we know? When it shows up in price.
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@SteveMatthews12
@boes_
and
@jeannasmialek
went around to industries that are supposedly seeing tight labor markets (trucking, construction, childcare) to figure out why they're still not cranking up wages.
@neelkashkari
What do you make of residential home prices, which are near inflation-adjusted highs despite starts that are near 1992 post-recession lows? Are builders able to pass along price increases and choosing not to?
@NickTimiraos
there are lots of reasons why new construction may be low. somehow we found enough construction workers to build OODLES of homes in 2006. 1) scarring from the crisis - people not wanting to take risk of new construction = less speculation. 2) zoning...
@neelkashkari
Hilarious. Just cruise MPLS and count help wanted signs or look at back of most semi trailers now or check out where your nurses are coming from or..... how about this for a straight razon edge: Fisher Rate set by the Fed. You are the explanation as you pound this tautology.
@neelkashkari
Sorry
@neelkashkari
, but you're describing an economic impossibility. All demand is preceded by supply. People produce so that they can consume. If you doubt this, see how long you can "demand" things without working. Supply and demand match, by definition.
@neelkashkari
@LukeGromen
Most important point is that the capital/labor ratio is out of balance. What will make capital plentiful and labor, thus, relatively scarce, raising wages? Historically stable money (which has little to do with ff rate) and low taxes (especially cap gains rate).
#JudeToldYouSo
@neelkashkari
@TheStalwart
Also, many employers have forgotten about the value of investing in worker training... they are complaining about shortage or “ready made” trained/educated/experienced workers
@neelkashkari
Ken Griffin doubles his ‘earnings’ every year. Hes up to 4 billion per year now. These overzealous vampire squids are taking way more than a rational share and nobody cares
@neelkashkari
@LukeGromen
Article was a puff piece. No real analysis.
All of us guys who set wages still have fresh memories of layoffs, hour reductions, and pay reductions. It will take time for true confidence to return.
Also, the internet is a deflationary machine.
@neelkashkari
Neel I would love to get your take on labor productivity, the third main variable (ignoring inflation) that interacts with labor supply and labor demand to determine wages.
@neelkashkari
Neel inflation is not showing up in prices based on the flawed way the CPI is Calc'd. Every bill I have opened over the past 12 months has increased way more than 2%! insurance, housing costs, Oil, restaurant food. Your heuristics don't fool anyone, you are way behind the curve!