Jeanna Smialek
@jeannasmialek
Followers
65,802
Following
2,396
Media
1,605
Statuses
9,322
Federal Reserve and economy reporter @nytimes . Pittsburgh native, Tar Heel. Wrote a book on central banking's new era, link below.
Washington, DC
Joined February 2011
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Arsenal
• 479509 Tweets
Flamengo
• 158384 Tweets
Tottenham
• 129609 Tweets
Spurs
• 128897 Tweets
Forest
• 107078 Tweets
Botafogo
• 87489 Tweets
Raya
• 67532 Tweets
DAVI NO DOMINGAO
• 57969 Tweets
melanie
• 50602 Tweets
Lite
• 48539 Tweets
Romero
• 35525 Tweets
Maracanã
• 25075 Tweets
Brunson
• 20954 Tweets
Gazzede SoykırımıDurdurun
• 20537 Tweets
Candace Parker
• 19659 Tweets
Türkiye Yüzyılı Maarif Modeli
• 19279 Tweets
Göztepe
• 18995 Tweets
Gabigol
• 18495 Tweets
Brest
• 14543 Tweets
Arrascaeta
• 14440 Tweets
Duhamel
• 14155 Tweets
Chris Wood
• 10060 Tweets
Woah, news: Powell says the Fed staff are no longer forecasting a recession. They had been for the last several meetings.
125
1K
4K
Esther Duflo:
*Youngest person to win an economics Nobel ever
*First woman to win it in a decade
*Second woman to win it ever
25
884
3K
Larry Summers says "almost everything" about the flexible average inflation regime was "a mistake," while sitting next to Richard Clarida, who ran and championed the review that created that framework.
22
35
219
Some personal news: Had the best long weekend, said yes, and now have ~a year to convince this guy to let me use “rational exuberance” as a wedding hashtag.
130
19
2K
So first, they did not talk about talking about taper.
Then they talked about talking about taper.
Then they talked about taper.
Now they're teeing up taper.
Next they'll announce taper.
Then they'll taper.
I don't have kids, but I'm wondering if this is ~how bedtime works
106
165
2K
This is quite the stat, from Brainard: "Federal Reserve staff analysis indicates that unemployment is likely above 20 percent for workers in the bottom wage quartile, while it has fallen below 5 percent for the top wage quartile."
61
719
2K
Goldman Sachs estimates that of the 5 m people missing from the job mkt:
- 1.5m retired early
- 1 m retired normally
- 0.9 m 55+, not retired
- 1.7 m prime-age
....aka solidly 50% probably won't come back. Which'd really dent "temporary" labor shortage storylines.
77
340
2K
Pb&j sandwiches in LaGuardia are $14, and I just watched somebody buy one.
Brb revising up my personal terminal rate forecast.
234
142
2K
This is interesting: "Beijing has tested expiration dates to encourage users to spend it quickly, for times when the economy needs a jump start." via
@jamestareddy
188
447
1K
"The risk of overdoing it is less than the risk of under-doing it," Jerome Powell says.
26
128
908
Women are leaving the labor market like crazy. That's bad news. Our briefing:
175
456
883
"A New York Times analysis of data compiled by Capital IQ shows no statistically meaningful relationship between the size of the tax cut that companies and industries received and the investments they made."
58
475
873
Uh: "Instead of simply paying for property with tokens, borrowers pledge their digital holdings as collateral, with no down payments necessary. That enables the holders to keep their coins, avoiding taxes on capital gains..."
55
134
868
"I never hear people from a low-income background telling me that they don't want a college degree," SF Fed President Mary Daly says. It's only higher-income folks saying that maybe other people don't need one.
37
190
746
Find somone who talks about you the way Jay Powell talks about <4% unemployment.
19
71
761
Fun personal news: I'm writing a book! On the modern Fed, published by Knopf. Coming 2022.
It'll feature 13-3 nerdery, a little history and at least one Gossip Girl reference, so at a minimum, it'll be like no Fed book you've read before. Thoughts? Warnings? My DM's are open.
84
26
754
I'm excited to say that as of April 29, you'll be able to find me
@nytimes
writing about the Fed + the economy. I'm between work emails, but feel free to DM me between now and then.
86
16
709
The Fed:
*Raises rates by three-quarters of a point to 3-3.25%
*Projects 4.4% rates at the end of 2022, suggesting a 75 and a 50
*Rates climb to 4.6% next year (up from 3.8%)
*Sees unemployment rising to 4.4% next year
This is a central bank in full inflation-fighting mode.
60
221
688
The president of the St. Louis Fed spoke at a closed-press, off-record, invite-only event that Citi hosted and asked its clients to.
Against Fed rules? Unclear, though we go through them in the story. Bad look? Definitely, a range of people said.
50
233
671
Elizabeth Warren + Chuy Garcia are introducing a bill that would prevent future bank mergers like BB&T-Suntrust.
It's roadmap of where bank regulation might be headed if Sen. Warren is elected.
Our exclusive:
40
229
639
Self reflection is important, and it's especially important if your job is to inform people.
I've read through
@Noahpinion
's takedown of my Sunday Business piece, and though he did not ask me for a comment, I have one.
That NYT article about MMT was a master class in how NOT to write about macroeconomics.
75
125
810
31
63
675
Goldman Sachs forecasts that core PCE will fall from 5.1% now to 2.9% by Dec 2023, as supply chain clearing lowers good prices, wage growth starts to slow and rents moderate.
Fun fact: "1 million apartments are under construction or permitted, the largest pipeline since 1974."
25
147
657
Lots of misconceptions circulating about that $500 billion fund in the Senate bill.
(1) $75b goes to air carriers and security-tied co's. Mnuchin has a lot of discretion over how that's used.
(2) $425b would stand up Fed facilities. Mnuchin has much less discretion there.
72
260
607
- 261K job gains
- 3.7 percent unemployment
- slight tick down in participation
- 0.4 percent wage gains on a monthly basis (stronger than expected).
This does not look like a weakening labor market.
36
189
631
NEW: Remember the Fed trading scandal? Vice Chair Rich Clarida corrected his disclosure, and his controversial trade now looks even more eyebrow-raising.
32
237
607
Black/African American unemployment rate hits a new low - 5.4%.
41
131
520
Powell sounds really worried about this: "My assumption is that there will be a significant chunk, well into the millions," of "people who don't get to go back to their old job... there may not be a job in that industry for them for some time."
"It's very tough on their lives."
32
184
561
A week ago, we had the best day.
Now that Jackson Hole is winding down, I will be mostly off of this website for a few weeks for our honeymoon. If you have pressing Fed thoughts that cannot wait until Sept. 12, please email vs DM'ing. ♥️
53
8
575
Since 2018, Lael Brainard has been the lone Democrat at the Fed Board.
Twenty dissents, one crisis and a CRA showdown later, she's a top contender to be the first woman to lead Treasury in its 231-year history.
19
99
552
You know you’ve been covering the Fed too aggressively when you notice which keys you’ve worn through and…
17
16
560
Fed Chair Jay Powell has been working from home, observing social distancing and mask guidelines in public settings, and has not been in contact with anyone who is known to have tested positive for the coronavirus and so has not been tested. - Fed spokesperson
17
67
508
“We now understand better how little we understand about inflation,” Chair Powell says.
76
93
519
"We're recovering, but to a different economy," Fed Chair Jay Powell says. "There's going to be a substantial number of workers who are going to need support as they find their way in the post-pandemic economy, because it's going to be different in fundamental ways."
16
161
512
I published two stories with my friend and frequent co-writer
@bencasselman
yesterday. I took the lead byline on one and he took the lead byline on the other.
Only I got this email yesterday evening.
37
90
523
Yikes: While high-income jobs have more than recovered, "employment among low-wage workers remains 14% below pre-pandemic levels and is trending down again."
21
237
500
One of these days the typo that I make in every single template is going to slip past the defenses and make it into print, and you all will learn from the pages of the NYT that Fed officials raise rats.
25
38
507
Powell on using economics jargon in public: "It's just annoying, it's irritating" and the exclusivity is "bad."
13
51
467
The London interbank offered rate has died after a long battle with regulators. It was 52.
An obituary for finance's most important number, from
@LananhTNguyen
and me.
28
135
467
The idea that New Zealanders randomly invented the 2% inflation target is ~true, but not the full story. The full story is even more fun.
A thread.
it's great that the 2% targeting is because a guy on New Zealand TV was like "hm yeah that sounds about right"
27
28
277
14
108
456
Fed officials have moved at a breakneck pace over the past 14 days. For those following along at home, a quick rundown of what they've done and why. (1/)
16
169
450
New labor market theory: People prefer remote work because they remember that office thermostats are all absolutely and inexplicably set to "freezing"
27
42
436
Neel Kashkari doesn't know why markets have dialed back rate expectations so much.
"We’re going to continue to do what we need to do until we are convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2 percent — and we are a long way away from that.”
75
135
425
Bank of America, BNY Mellon, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street, and Wells Fargo are stopping buybacks for now to focus on lending.
"COVID-19 pandemic is an unprecedented challenge for the world and the global economy," per release.
21
143
397
"Transitory is a word that people have had different understandings of," Chair Powell says, stating the very obvious. He says some people interpret it as short-lived, but the Fed really means not-permanent.
60
73
371
"Keep workers in their homes, keep them paying their bills, keep families solvent," he says of what Congress ought to do.
9
98
365
Berkeley usually gives Nobel winners a coveted parking spot near their office, but David Card rides his bike, so they have to come up with an alternative for him.
Card news conference streaming here:
Our story here:
15
60
382
And that's a Jackson Hole wrap. Big takeaways:
1. No urgency to hike in September.
Several Fed officials (including Powell) signaled that another hike might be coming, but the Fed can be patient in making it.
22
73
373
NEW: Fed officials and staffers spent last week quizzing market participants about the risk of a financial accident in the United States, post-U.K. So did the White House.
Prognosis: Not imminent, but not impossible.
w/
@jimtankersley
@JARennison
22
107
354
Today in "fun facts to lose sleep over":
"SVB had sufficient liquidity to handle a $16 billion single day outflow. Put in context, the largest short period outflow ever seen in a U.S. bank failure was Washington Mutual... $16.7 billion over 10 days."
17
48
361
Powell says we've been over-reliant on monetary policy.
"In economic discussion generally, there's much too much focus on demand management, and not enough on things that will make us grow at the maximum sustainable level - sustainable growth - in the longer run."
16
72
355
Ben Bernanke's cell phone was off when the Nobel call came in.
"It was our daughter in Chicago who was finally contacted, and called us on the landline," he says.
14
18
345
The White House is nominating Sarah Bloom Raskin, Lisa Cook and Phillip Jefferson to the Fed Board.
This would the the most diverse Fed Board ever, if these picks are confirmed by the Senate. (1/)
19
71
342
Let's talk about what is going down here.
My friend
@arappeport
and I wrote last week that Treasury might try to kill the novel Fed facilities. Now it is. (1/)
Please see my letter to Chair Powell regarding the status of the 13(3) facilities:
309
72
283
16
152
343
When I was a youth, I swam against a girl who would tell everyone that she had a stomach flu at big meets.
If she PR'd, she'd be like: "wow, even w the stomach flu." If she bombed: "well, my stomach."
Earnings calls referencing "macro headwinds" rn have ~same energy
5
13
334
The New York Fed has come up with a new Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and it looks... pressured.
8
79
339
Chair Powell takeaways:
- The economy is different this time (he said this many times)
- Inflation is too high, and it's gotten worse
- The job market is v strong
- The Fed is set to hike rates in March + after that, but not ready to say how much
- "nimble" + "humble"
20
78
332
Thanksgiving '22 felt very different for the rich vs. the poor.
In Boston last week, I visited a fancy hotel whose $135 Thanksgiving brunch was on waitlist. Then a food pantry where people had lined the frigid block from 4:30 am for free turkeys. (1/)
44
84
297
Between Powell last week and Brainard today, the Fed is clearly more worried about stablecoins than I had realized.
24
91
316
"Our peers, our competitors, advanced economy democracies have a more built up function for childcare" - Fed Chair Powell
"We used to lead the world in female labor force participation... and we no longer do. It may just be that those policies have put us behind."
7
99
315
Getting off the ski slopes to discover that a few of you have thoughts about my article on
@StephanieKelton
32
38
323
The Fed saw big risks at SVB more than a year before its collapse.
It put it under supervisory review.
It put it under a review of risk management.
It banned it from growing through acquisition.
It didn't work.
Now the question is: Why?
31
115
320
Chair Powell takeaways:
- Big rate increases could slow in Dec or shortly after
- But rates will go higher than prior forecast
- And stay there
- His message was blunt: "I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done."
- Upshot: This was not a pivot.
50
80
313
*Big* headline inflation number: 9.1%
It’s more than the 8.8% economists expected.
Highest since 1981.
13
95
292
The guy who came up with the Phillips Curve was originally a crocodile hunter, per Alan Blinder's new book.
(a) Never let anyone tell you that your aspirational career change is too extreme. (1/)
15
46
296
More details on this new Fed emergency lending program, which is SUPER interesting:
- backed by $25B of Treasury money (ESF)
- loans of up to one year
- in exchange for Treasuries, MBS etc at par (og value)
- AKA: workaround for unrealized losses
21
83
291
Housing dynamics are very weird right now.
High rates = few existing home sales (who walks away from a rock-bottom rate mortgage?)
Few existing homes for sale + a big generation ~30 yo + remote work = a new home rebound in spite of 7% mortgage rates
44
62
284
Monroe Gamble was the
@sffed
first-ever Black research assistant. In 2018.
That wasn't a one-off. Black economists and RA's are a rarity across the Fed system, I learned from data the Fed provided for this story. (1/)
13
128
285
Black workers have long faced labor market barriers. As the pandemic costs jobs across racial and ethnic groups, there are reasons to worry those losses will turn out to be especially painful for minorities.
21
114
281
Men between 35-44 (elder millennials, younger gen x) just aren't staging the employment rebound we're seeing in other demographics.
Why?
@lydiadepillis
@bencasselman
and I dug into it.
45
94
279
A man in Penn Station just looked at me closely before saying, in a tone that I can only describe as philosophic, “well, everybody dresses different.”
Brb preparing to overanalyze this for the entirety of my three hour train ride.
41
4
283
Teens are just killing it this year.
The last time 16-19 year olds worked this much, *I* was a teenager. Our recent story on their employment surge:
18
56
272
Remember the “she-cession”? What about the early-retirement wave, or America’s army of quiet quitters?
We underestimated the healing power of America's labor market — again. What lessons can we learn from it? w/
@bencasselman
13
85
268
My new all-time favorite Fed transcript line. December 2015.
"CHAIR YELLEN. Okay. Boxed lunches will be available. If anybody wants to watch TV in the Special Library and see me get skewered at the press conference, please feel free."
5
27
274
"While tightening policy enough to reduce labor demand by just the amount needed today without causing a recession is possible conceptually, this hasn’t occurred in modern U.S. history," Goldman Sachs writes in a new note.
13
51
269
Jay Powell's big theme at today's subcommittee hearing is basically - I don't want to become a soundbite for your political cause.
At one point he literally said: "Yeah, I have a strong desire not to play a role in your discussion."
10
42
261
Many of my sources say that 2018/2019 reg rollbacks at the Fed mattered for Silicon Valley Bank. But when I follow up with the question: "Which rule changes, specifically?" the answers often haven't been super precise.
Until this one. (thread)
35
70
257
@Noahpinion
This was not a literature review on what macro thinks of MMT. It was a feature story about how MMT is grappling (or not grappling) with the fact that inflation has proven incredibly hard to predict, when so much of its argument relies on predicting inflation.
10
11
256
Fed's Barr gives us new details on the speed of the 3/10 SVB run, and... holy smokes.
"On Friday morning...the bank let us know that they expected the outflow to be vastly larger...a total of $100 billion was scheduled to go out the door that day."
19
42
246
Chair Powell: "We're experiencing a big uptick in inflation, bigger than many expected, bigger certainly than I expected, and we're trying to understand whether it's something that will pass through fairly quickly, or whether in fact we need to act."
22
56
245
This could spell strife down the road:
*Sen. Toomey tells me by email that the new Fed-related language means no future direct muni buying/biz lending w/o Congress' blessing.
*Dems say it will only prevent carbon copy programs
Keep "congressional intent" on your bingo card.
18
54
243
Great CPI figures for the Fed:
- 3% headline inflation, literally 1/3 of last summer
- 4.8% core, beating expectations for slowdown
- cooling supercore
- slowest monthly core increase since August 2021
15
102
248
"There perhaps once was a strong connection between budget deficits and inflation -- there really hasn't been lately," Chair Powell says.
15
61
247
If you've heard econ officials say the "real" jobless rate is ~10% and wondered where that number is coming from, we're here for your wonky needs.
9
97
240
Just realized that "transitory" is just like purgatory, in that you have no idea how long it's going to last and it's sure to be uncomfortable in the meantime.
10
20
239
Check out labor force participation among 25-34 women: 76.8% last month, highest since 2000.
14
88
228
A voiceover during Chair Powell's latest 60 Minutes interview suggested that the Fed chair had suggested "the likely time for the first interest rate cut would be the middle of the year."
I checked with 60 Minutes: The transcript they released reflects the full interview.
21
37
241
The college-aged woman sitting next to me at a coffeeshop just confessed that she "still has an Instagram," like it is a sign that she's living in the stone age.
Brb, going home to retrieve my cane.
18
12
236
Violets are blue
Roses are red
Wouldn't your Valentine
Love this book on the Fed?
Pre-order, ships Feb. 28!
20
21
229
Chair Powell may not be a Ph.D. economist, y'all, but he has nailed the two-handed thing.
"There's always a risk of going too far or going not far enough. It's going to be a difficult judgement to make, or maybe not, maybe it will be quite clear."
22
15
233
University of Michigan 5-year preliminary inflation expectations: 2.8%
Was: 3.1%
Forecast: 3.0%
Just one number, but that should take some pressure off the Fed to make a big 1 percentage point rate increase this month.
18
52
227
Contrary to some of the quotes floating out there, it's worth noting that the Fed programs legally must be broad-based -- Dodd Frank ensured that. So that $425B cannot bail out specific businesses or favored beneficiaries (eg/Trump hotels).
14
70
214
Claudia Goldin is the third woman to win the economics Nobel.
(She was also, fun fact, the first woman to be offered tenure in the Harvard econ department.)
BREAKING NEWS
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 2023 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Claudia Goldin “for having advanced our understanding of women’s labour market outcomes.”
#NobelPrize
420
10K
27K
10
55
228
3. And if you want a chart to worry consumers, this is it. Food and fuel are getting a lot pricier. It's particularly notable that food at home is picking up so much, because it's harder for people to substitute away from (you can skip that dinner out; you can't skip dinner)
12
74
215
A sobering history of soft landing optimism.
(+ some reasons to keep the hope alive, because I'm not a total downer.)
25
51
216
“It wasn’t supposed to be possible for job openings to decline by as much as they have declined without unemployment going up." - Chair Powell
Could the Fed achieve the unprecedented?
51
40
227