Duncan Lamont
@DuncanLamont2
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Data-led insights on all things markets, investing, life. Articles here Head of Strategic Research Unit @Schroders . Not investment advice
Joined August 2011
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💥1/9: UK housing affordability since the year 1876 (UPDATED to 2022)
Average house~9x average earnings
Here’s a chart-thread of my research, as covered by:
@Bloomberg
@Telegraph
,
@thisismoney
,
@TheSun
,
@guardian
Full article:
#houseprices
#property
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MSCI China has delivered a 0% return in the nearly 30 years since inception
Oh my word
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The share of young people owning their homes has collapsed in 20 years
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Maybe he’ll put £60k into his pension like all financially savvy 16 year olds would do…
Darts sensation Luke Littler just won £200k - but he's set to have £83k taken out in taxes
🔗 Read more
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@DGlaucomflecken
At what point in civilisation did anyone decide they needed to drink a pint of coffee?
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% of households that own their home outright with no mortgage has shot up in the past decade (hello boomers, retirees)
Means the BoE has to smash that monetary policy hammer much harder if they want to impact demand
From our new Economic Lens chartpack
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What an opening paragraph in
@FTAlphaville
. The burn!
Deadbeats, the word is on the street that your Fibonacci chart is out
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First time buyer mortgage maths from my 150yrs of housing affordability article
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We really don’t have an investing culture in the UK/Europe
We know cash ISAs are consistently more popular than stocks and shares ones in the uk. This is the result
And it has consequences…
h/t
@MichaelAArouet
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Early morn flight to London £21
Early morn train to London £167
Train more environmentally friendly but demands consumers stomach quite a hit
Incentives not really there for most people to take the train
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If you live in the UK get outside now
You can see all of the planets in our solar system for the only time in our lifetime
We saw them all apart from Venus and mercury which were too low
I’m absolutely buzzing. As are my kids. Bloody amazing
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I just paid £14.40 for two pints at The Globe, by Moorgate
Enough of the 24 hour city chat, is this normal in London these days?!
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@hannahrosewoods
UK house prices are more expensive vs earnings than at any point since…the year 1876
💥1/9: UK housing affordability since the year 1876 (UPDATED to 2022)
Average house~9x average earnings
Here’s a chart-thread of my research, as covered by:
@Bloomberg
@Telegraph
,
@thisismoney
,
@TheSun
,
@guardian
Full article:
#houseprices
#property
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The curious case of rising stocks in the night-time / how to make money while you sleep
Who doesn’t love a good conspiracy theory? Highly entertaining jaunt from
@RobinWigg
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70-80% of non-US corporate debt financing comes from banks. Only 20-30% from capital markets
It’s the reverse in the US
Always remember this
And this is even after a shift in favour of capital markets in Europe since the GFC
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1/8 What does almost two centuries of data tell us about
#ukhousing
affordability? Here’s a chart-thread of my research which
@martinwolf_
covered in his latest
@FT
piece.
Full article here:
#houseprices
#property
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Unbelievable marathon PB. Goal was sub-3 and I obliterated that in the rain and wind in Edinburgh today. Can’t believe what I’ve achieved
(My previous official PB was 3:38)
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@jimwaterson
@RobinWigg
He should team up with four seasons landscaping for their Christmas ad campaign...
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This would be huge. And not in a good way for London
Will the last person to leave the London market please turn out the lights?
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I ❤️
@FTAlphaville
so it’s a career high point that
@RobinWigg
agreed to publish my rant about the nonsense spouted about UK pensions/UK equities
- the data shows they’re not the culprits
- changing regs will do nowt
- and everyone’s forgetting about DC
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@MacroAlf
Chinese gdp grew 9.0% a year 1997-2017, Chinese EPS growth only 1.7% a year 😬
Big issue in China is dilution. GDP is aggregate measure, equity returns are per share. Lots of GDP has been financed by issuance of new equity
Challenge for EM vs DM in gen
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@SMTuffy
Table formatting in ppt please
And can they redesign the add/reduce number of decimal places icon in excel so I don’t get it wrong. Every single time
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FTSE 100 companies now have a £150bn accounting surplus on their DB pension liabilities
Higher yields = lower liabilities ✅
Even though I knew things were looking up from this perspective, that’s still a incredibly striking chart from
@LCP_Actuaries
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@keithschnak
I always remember my uni classmate who responded to a formal assessment which asked him to “please provide any other information you think is relevant” with:
“It’s been emotional”
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Another bonkers PB in the Glasgow 10k today in 36:36!
That’s a full 1:37 better than my previous best. And into a sick headwind which never turned into a tailwind, everyone else saying how much they struggled
Full on endorphin rush. Yaaaaas!!
I just set a ridiculous 5k PB in a race tonight, in 17:12
Over 30 seconds faster than previous best
And that was from 8yrs ago so I’m a lot older now. I am high as a kite on endorphins, absolutely buzzing!
“Age is just a number” sounds corny but fck it it’s true!
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😱 In other news, electric vehicle manufacturers back higher taxes on combustion engines
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This might be a new record for cheap flights to London
The earliest train would get me to the office later than this and costs £176 for standard class (one way)
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Inflation hack: buy chocolate in the baking aisle not confectionery aisle
Same product but no VAT for baking
Follow me for more cost of living crisis tips
Next up, why is multipack of 2 packs of cream crackers cheaper/100g than single big one which has a bigger overall weight?
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This surprised me: UK has produced a greater share of “10-baggers” than US in the last decade
Biggest driver = improving profitability, then revenue growth. Not just a multiple expansion story. And just under half made (successful) signif acquisitions
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I just set a ridiculous 5k PB in a race tonight, in 17:12
Over 30 seconds faster than previous best
And that was from 8yrs ago so I’m a lot older now. I am high as a kite on endorphins, absolutely buzzing!
“Age is just a number” sounds corny but fck it it’s true!
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Everyone who cares about UK public markets should care about this
I don’t know the company in question so can’t comment on their specifics but it’s worth a read for sure
1/ A 🧵 on UK stockmarket - Today we announced a capital raise at a significant premium to the share price and an intention to delist from the London AIM market. Firstly, I am obviously sorry for the loss of liquidity/tax benefits that some retail investors will lose. That said,
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BoE: “If we were to raise rates to 30% then bad stuff would happen”
Jesus, no one was even talking about 30%. Why did you have to even put that possibility out there
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Almost every UK stock market industry is at big discount to US
🇬🇧 energy sector = 6.7x next 12m earnings
🇺🇸 energy = 10.1x
🇬🇧 pharma & biotech = 15.6x
🇺🇸pharma & biotech = 21.4x
Median 🇬🇧 industry discount = 26%
Easy to say 🇬🇧 cheap because not enough tech. It’s also wrong
U.K. value equities are the cheapest part of a market which is trading at a huge discount to RoW
No sign of the value bounce that happened elsewhere last year
More charts on 🇬🇧 cheapness:
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Unanticipated side effect of my recent record player/hifi purchase is that me and my wife now spend more evenings chatting, while listening to tunes
rather than turning tv on and ignoring each other
Also, I just listened to aphex twin on a proper hifi for 1st time. Jfc😍
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I thought I’d had enough of the royal news then I saw this. Yikes!
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Average hours worked per week since the year 1260
Just be grateful you weren’t alive in the 1800s
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If you’re only here for finance tweets I’m sorry for the side shows. But what a belter of an evening this was for a late run
Love the mega long days you get in Scotland at this time of year
Too good not to share
#Edinburgh
#BlackfordHill
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@AlecStapp
You want to reduce the carbon footprint of your food? Focus on what you eat, not whether your food is local
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Great to see
@martinwolf_
quote my research on UK
#housing
affordability so extensively here, including my 175 year time series for the house price-earnings multiple!
@FT
@joesarling
this will be right up your street!
British housing is expensive and its supply must increase | opinion
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2/8 UK homes have only been this expensive vs earnings twice in the past 120 years.
Things were even more expensive between the year 1845 and early 20th century.
What happened to change things? More houses, smaller houses, higher incomes.
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Btw if anyone ever feels down about their performance at anything, my only previous 3 marathons (when I was in late 20s/early 30s) went 3:38, 3:59, 4:20. I vowed never to do one again
So to do 2:53:40 in my mid-40s is on another planet
Don’t give up
Unbelievable marathon PB. Goal was sub-3 and I obliterated that in the rain and wind in Edinburgh today. Can’t believe what I’ve achieved
(My previous official PB was 3:38)
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“Even if you assume 100% renewable electricity, an electric Volvo XC40 needs to drive 49,000 km before it emits less CO2 than a petrol version…
…rises to 110,000 km if you use the current global electricity mix.”
😳
Source: Volvo h/t
@SnippetFinance
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Retail investors, out
Pension funds and insurance companies, out
Overseas investors (mainly institutional), in
@MerrynSW
The proportion of UK shares held by overseas investors rose to a record high of 57.7% at the end of 2022.
The proportion held by UK-resident individuals fell to 10.8%, down by 1.2 percentage points from 2020.
➡️
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Investors who shifted to cash after first 25% loss of 1929
#stocks
crash faced 34yr wait to breakeven vs 15yr if remained invested vs less than 7yr if dripfed extra small amounts in.
More here
@MerrynSW
@John_Stepek
@iancowie
#investing
#personalfinance
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I was just charged £8.25 for a large sourdough
Didn’t register until after I’d tapped my phone, assumed a mistake…
Jaw dropped
It looks nice and all but seriously?…
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Formatting tables nicely in PowerPoint
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*THE* chart that tells the story of UK defined benefit pension funds
@toby_n
@danmikulskis
@charlotsmoore
(Before this year’s carnage)
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Top
#Bitcoin
explainer from
@vizcomic
: “Traditional inv made using real money are subject to market forces,value can go down...Bitcoin rises so fast it can never go down, will only ever be worth ever-increasing amounts of millions, billions, even trillions of pounds”
@TheStalwart
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@MerrynSW
And a lot of that pain still to be felt
The average mortgage rate paid by UK homeowners is rising but is still a long way short of current market rates
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Aw man here we go again
30 year index linked gilt yield back up at +1.6%
That’s up almost 0.7% on Friday’s close…
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UK interest rate expectations have been on quite the journey
Place your bets…now!
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Which locations are furthest from London but still an hour's commute to Piccadilly Circus? 🤔
Cool geospatial analysis from our real estate team (they care because it’s relevant for land values)
Reading and hitchen ftw 🏆
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UK long term borrowing costs are rising vs elsewhere
This is what happens when you try to unwind asset purchases with no natural buyers in the room
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We can debate whether $1m is the right amount (I’m sure many would argue for lower limit) but, putting that aside, this principle has a lot of merit
Encourages entrepreneurship
Gives those with less assets a leg up vs those with more
Prevents the wealthy gaming CGT/income tax
Raccoons never sleep.
The right answer for cap gains tax reform (
@mcuban
has been all over this) is a lifetime tax *exemption* for the first $1m you make in cap gains, ordinary income taxation after that.
THIS is how you democratize markets!
1,000 millionaires >> 1 billionaire
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When I lived as a grad in Birmingham in 2004 my rent (flatshare) was £350/month, inc. all bills
When I moved to London in 2005 my rent (en suite, decent-sized house in Clapham South with garden, flatshare) was about £600+bills
Great, fun, times
How much would they cost today?
UK spends more on housing than almost any other developed country, and gets the least value from it too
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If there’s one thing covid taught me, it’s work hard, but also live life
It’s a sunny frosty day and I’m so grateful to be able to nip out for a run up Arthur’s Seat
Beautiful beautiful views
Bit sketchy and icy near the top mind you…
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Is there a bigger UK public misunderstanding than idea that there’s a National Insurance “fund” that we pay into + that will pay our state pensions?
Seeing tweets about it today re.potential indy-Scotland
This is a good explanation from
@Frances_Coppola
I, like 100,000s of other Scots, have paid decades of UK NI contributions. Stating that, in the event of Scotland voting for self-determination, the UK will say "we're keeping all your money - you get sweet FA pension" is not the killer anti-independence argument you think it is.
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Not just any new research. My new research.
Thread incoming in the next day or so…
🏠 House prices now stand at more than nine times the average salary, a ratio not seen since 1876, according to new research
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The large-7 US stocks are up 51% YTD, the rest are up 0.5%
I know some of you don’t like these charts but boy this is an intense one
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This. Is. Living.
In these conditions, possibly the most beautiful run I’ve ever done. And maybe a top 10 finish to boot!
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Regular pot = 57g
Self-described “big” pot = 60g
I’ve been had
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New routine: calls to be taken while walking/hiking where possible
Fresh air = good for me
Undivided attention (no sneakily checking emails) = good for the call
Trade off is no video but I think leads to higher quality convo. What do others think?
#GetOutside
@DeadCaitBounce
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“It’s cheaper to send a letter from Tokyo to Edinburgh than London to Edinburgh”
What a factoid!
Just overheard from Alex Tedder, Schroders head of global equities
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It’s days like today when I’m very grateful to work part time
Picked my son up from school with our bikes, cycled round the park a few times, ice-cream van, playground, ride home
It’s been a bit of a stressful week and 3 hours of sun and fresh air with him sorted me right out
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It’s more common to own a property outright than have a mortgage in almost all of England and Wales
Astounding
Also has implications for political priorities…
Today's census map shows the most common housing tenure in each local authority in England and Wales 🏡
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The average mortgage rate paid by UK homeowners is rising but is still a long way short of current market rates
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Just ran >3,000ft of vertical. Absolutely epic. Now this is how to spend that extra day of annual leave I needed to use up before month end!
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Bad: UK and EM companies have had ~0% sales growth over the past decade*
Good: Japanese companies grew earnings faster than US ones. Europe similar to US
Table shows what drove stock market returns over the past 10yrs
* UK small/mid caps managed 5% sales growth. Respect
Japanese companies have grown their earnings faster than the US over the past decade, with European companies on a par.
Bet that wasn't on your bingo card
From our latest Equity Lens chart pack
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UK households have become much more energy efficient since 2000
I didn’t realise how much of an improvement there has already been
More efficient boilers, better insulation and more efficient appliances ✅
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For those who think of UK as a stuffy old-industry London-centric economy:
- Equity inv. in smaller UK companies hit record £8.8bn last year
+ another £4.5bn in just first 3m of 2021
- Nearly half in tech sector
- 58% outside London (2016, 32%)
- UK venture capital industry 🚀
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What did the new Chelsea owner say at the
#SuperReturn
private equity conference?
Why did he buy Chelsea? Quite simply, because he thinks he will make a lot of money from it
But, despite that, and interestingly, his comments were more egalitarian than you might expect.
🧵1/12
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The house we’ve just bought came with an
#Aga
. Please send help (and any pointers on how to use this beast efficiently)
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Massive PB in the Edinburgh half marathon today! 1:24:41
A post-run pint, swim in the sea at Portobello to freshen up and…
…now for a half battered pizza and chips for lunch. Yes this is a thing. And it’s delicious.
@Bog_Trotters
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@dontdelay
Gives new meaning to the popular question in the Sunday papers: what’s more important, property or pension?
What if neither is a realistic prospect?
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There are 8 “high yield” bonds currently trading on a negative yield. Just think about that.
High yield = negative yield.
Is it any wonder that investors are happy to keep holding equities, even at today’s high valuations? Best of a bad bunch?
#highyield
#stocks
#fixedincome
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@MichaelAArouet
I’m with you but also not. We’re not in a worrying spot (yet) but interest expense is growing at a rapid pace and interest cover is falling
Charts for US HY but similar picture for IG and for EUR corp bonds, details in our new credit lens chart pack
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Me when my wife asks at 6pm if I’ve hung up the washing like she asked first thing today
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@TonyTassell
@adamsamson
@TomStub
@JosephineCumbo
I’ll take your gilts and raise you index linked gilts
Aw man here we go again
30 year index linked gilt yield back up at +1.6%
That’s up almost 0.7% on Friday’s close…
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You can now lock in inflation + 2% for 30yrs
A few years ago many people would have bitten your hand off for that
Today no one is biting
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Everyone’s moaning about UK cos abandoning 🇬🇧 for 🇺🇸
Reality is that 68% of public cos that were listed 10yrs ago said bye-bye not because they didn’t like 🇬🇧 but because were snapped up by o’seas buyers
It’s not some “I don’t like the FTSE” decision
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I knew the US has its problems but not that it was such a horrendous outlier when it comes to life expectancy.
I feel like I need to dig into this more to verify
Life expectancy continues to nosdive in the U.S. Why? We have more guns, more drugs and more cars. Stunning.
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@DuncanWeldon
I’ve learned an unbelievable amount from people I follow on here. Fintwit and econ twitter are full of amazingly bright people, many of whom I’d otherwise not have had direct access to, sharing their analysis, views and wisdom. I love it!
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What a pub. Not seen a £2 toastie since about 1999. Macaroni pies too.
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@youngvulgarian
I went for a run after work tonight. Then tried to find somewhere for pizza at 9:15 in the City. Everywhere was shutting at 10 so had to pick based on which was a less than 10 min walk away!
And they’d already taped up the beer taps for the night
Didn’t used to be like this
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The amount of money which rushed into the late stage venture capital market in recent years really is something to behold
4/6
4. Will fundraising excesses come home to roost?
Risk for some areas-especially late stage venture, where $$$ raised has been 🔥
-> led to nearly 10x increase in late stage company valuations in last 5yrs 😬
Early stage fundraising more contained, valuation rise less nuts
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