Jack Kersting
@jhkersting
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Working on a community based project. Feel free to fill this out, more features will be added later on (search other users ratings, map, etc.)
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#NEW
Presidential Forecast Update
Win Presidency
Biden - 87% (7 in 8)
Trump - 13% (1 in 8)
Link
84
250
1K
Trumps Re-Election odds drop below 30% for the first time
Popular Vote
Biden 51.0%
Trump 44.8%
Trump's odds down 5.2% in a week
Forecast Link
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171
665
#NEW
Forecast Update
Joe Biden now a slight favorite in the state of Georgia
Forecast Link
55
138
647
Joe Biden now favored in Arizona.
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@marcushjohnson
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581
#NEW
Presidential Forecast Update
Win Presidency
Biden - 84%
Trump - 16%
Proj. Popular Vote
Biden - 51.8%
Trump - 44.6%
Avg. Electoral Vote
Biden - 336.3
Trump - 201.7
Link
45
136
580
Forecast Update
Proj. Delegates (win nom)
Sanders- 1605 (51%)
Bloomberg- 1150 (22%)
Biden- 818 (14%)
Buttigieg- 292 (7%)
Warren- 68 (3%)
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@DrJasonJohnson
@marcushjohnson
@RachelBitecofer
@JMilesColeman
@DecisionDeskHQ
24
81
341
#NEW
Presidential Forecast Update
Win Presidency
Biden - 77.9%
Trump - 22.1%
Popular Vote
Biden - 52.0%
Trump - 45.1%
Avg. Electoral Votes
Biden - 327.1
Trump - 210.9
Link
32
82
336
A little tightening in the past week or so, but Biden still a heavy favorite.
Link
44
67
319
Democratic Primary Update
Win Nomination
Sanders - 59%
Biden - 16%
Bloomberg - 15%
Buttigieg - 4.4%
Warren - 4.2%
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@SteveKornacki
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@LarrySabato
@RachelBitecofer
@2020Delegates
@DrJasonJohnson
8
55
311
No way! Scaramucci just tweeted out my forecast
15
16
315
#NEW
Updated Presidential Forecast
Fixed a huge problem with confidence intervals that were too large.
Win Presidency:
Biden - 77.1%
Trump - 22.9%
Forecast Link
32
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306
#NEW
Post Super Tuesday Democratic Primary Update!
Win Majority:
Biden 80.7%
Sanders 15.8%
No One 3.5%
Projected Delegates:
Biden - 2104
Sanders - 1696
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@RachelBitecofer
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@LarrySabato
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#FINAL
House Update!
@TheDemocrats
are certain to control the next United States House of Representatives.
Forecast Link
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283
New Primary Forecast Update.
Delegates after Super Tuesday
Sanders - 635
Bloomberg - 370
Biden - 291
Warren - 99
Buttigieg- 67
Klobuchar - 36
Steyer - 13
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@DrJasonJohnson
@marcushjohnson
@RachelBitecofer
@JMilesColeman
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#NEW
project out!
Presidential Forecast Manipulator
Change which party each state votes, and the odds of the other states change accordingly.
Project Link
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#NEW
Presidential Forecast Update
Win Presidency (Since Apr 2)
--
Biden: 58.3% (+3.8%)
Trump: 41.7% (-3.8%)
--
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@DrJasonJohnson
@TheRickWilson
@JMilesColeman
@marcushjohnson
@SenhorRaposa
@RachelBitecofer
FULL FORECAST
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2022 Senate Forecast is finally up!
Right now it is coin flip who will win control of the chamber.
...
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#NEW
Presidential Forecast Update
Trump new all-time low to win re-election
Don't expect the downfall to stop for a while, given recent events
@marcushjohnson
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@RachelBitecofer
Forecast Link
18
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248
Democrats now favored to win Senate.
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@marcushjohnson
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@RachelBitecofer
Forecast Link>>
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Presidential Forecast Manipulator Update
The project now shows average margin for those certain outcomes.
Data
Webpage
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New Project Finished.
The State Partisan Trends tracks the trends of states and their counties over the last two decades.
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#NEW
Presidential Forecast is now fully live!!!
@RachelBitecofer
@KyungLahCNN
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@DrJasonJohnson
@marcushjohnson
@kkondik
@LarrySabato
This thread will run through its features!
40
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241
FINAL IOWA FORECAST!
Win Caucus
Sanders - 37%
Biden - 26%
Buttigieg - 15%
Warren - 14%
Klobuchar - 5%
@pollreport
@Politics_Polls
@PpollingNumbers
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@2020Delegates
@RachelBitecofer
@DrJasonJohnson
@marcushjohnson
17
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Current Presidential Forecast
Win Presidency
Biden - 55.3%
Trump - 44.7%
Popular Vote
Biden - 49.2%
Trump - 46.0%
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
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231
#NEW
Presidential Forecast Update
Win Presidency
Biden - 80%
Trump - 20%
Popular Vote
Biden - 52.3%
Trump - 44.5%
Avg. Electoral Votes
Biden - 332.5
Trump - 205.5
Link
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2022 House Forecast is out!
Republicans are favorites to win the house back in 2022.
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FINAL GA Runoff Projections
Regular
Perdue (R) - 50.6 (59.2% Win) +1.2
Ossoff (D) - 49.4 (40.8%)
Special
Loeffler (R) - 50.2 (52.5%) +0.4
Warnock (D) - 49.8 (47.5%)
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#FINAL
Senate Update!
@TheDemocrats
are favored to control the next United States Senate.
Forecast Link
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232
2022 Experts' House Ratings is finished.
Including
@FiveThirtyEight
@CookPolitical
@LarrySabato
@InsideElections
@CNalysis
@FoxNews
@RealClearNews
@DecisionDeskHQ
@SplitTicket_
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Final Super Tuesday Projections
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
Delegates thru Super Tuesday
Biden - 536
Sanders - 529
Bloomberg - 242
Warren - 169
Win plurality of Delegates
Biden - 50%
Sanders - 41
Bloomberg - 7
Warren - 2
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#NEW
Presidential Forecast Update
Improved state pages, more mobile friendly, and better looking on the computer as well.
Forecast Link
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Final Nevada Caucus Projections
*initial vote
Projected Vote (Delegates)
Sanders 34.6% (17)
Buttigieg 16.1% (8)
Warren 15.1% (6)
Biden 14.8% (4)
Steyer 11.7% (1)
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@2020Delegates
@DecisionDeskHQ
@SenhorRaposa
@JMilesColeman
17
50
187
Trump at a 1/5 chance of winning re-election.
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@JMilesColeman
@marcushjohnson
@SenhorRaposa
forecast link
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*Final South Carolina Projections*
Proj. Vote (Delegates)
Biden - 39% (27)
Sanders - 25% (17)
Steyer - 16% (11)
Buttigieg - 8% (-)
Warren - 8% (-)
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@BretBaier
@DrJasonJohnson
@DecisionDeskHQ
25
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165
New Democratic Primary Update
Win plurality of Delegates
Sanders - 49%
Biden - 40.5%
Bloomberg - 8.2%
Warren - 2.4%
Number of Delegates after ST
Sanders - 556
Biden - 473
Bloomberg - 276
Warren - 175
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@DrJasonJohnson
17
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Big thanks to everyone who has followed and supported me throughout this whole election cycle. I want to give a big thanks to
@SenhorRaposa
&
@JMilesColeman
for supporting me and getting my work out. Truly meant a lot, and I hope everyone enjoys Election night/week.
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10
169
How Trump is faring in battlegrounds states as of today compared to 2016.
@Politics_Polls
@PpollingNumbers
@RachelBitecofer
@DrJasonJohnson
@marcushjohnson
@TheRickWilson
@FrankLuntz
@JMilesColeman
@LarrySabato
@SenhorRaposa
Forecast link>>
22
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#NEW
House Simulator is Up.
Cool little project I've been working on.
Simulate the House elections one by one simulate up to 10,000 at a time.
7
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Trump liked a tweet for the first time in seven years and only for the seventh time ever. And it happened to be one a link to
@PpollingNumbers
’ and my website.
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New Presidential forecast is finally out!!!!
@rudnicknoah
@SenhorRaposa
@LarrySabato
@Politics_Polls
@ElectionMapsCo
@FrankLuntz
@JMilesColeman
@Garrett_Archer
@PoliticsWolf
@Redistrict
@gelliottmorris
@270toWin
@RachelBitecofer
@StatesPoll
@kkondik
link
19
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Finished what I think is my favorite project so far. You can change the vote of each candidate and it spits out a new outcome
@DecisionDeskHQ
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@RachelBitecofer
@LarrySabato
@DrJasonJohnson
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
Link
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#New
Presidential Simulator Update
Now you can do as many simulations without the page reloading. It saves results from previous simulations and creates a mini-forecast. One of my favorite additions to the website so far.
Project Link
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Most Accurate Pollsters/Forecasts through SC
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@LeanTossup
@FiveThirtyEight
@djjohnso
@DecisionDeskHQ
@RealClearNews
@FiveThirtyEight
@irihox
@EmersonPolling
@DataProgress
project link
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Democratic Primary Early States Update.
Delegates through SC
Biden - 72
Sanders - 52
Warren - 15
Buttigieg - 14
Steyer - 1
@pollreport
@Politics_Polls
@PpollingNumbers
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@2020Delegates
Full Forecast>>
20
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Presidential Forecast Update.
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@RachelBitecofer
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@DrJasonJohnson
link to forecast>>
17
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127
New Project Up!
Tracking all expert's ratings!
Included : [
@RachelBitecofer
,
@politico
,
@LarrySabato
,
@InsideElections
,
@CookPolitical
,
@jhkersting
]
@Politics_Polls
@PpollingNumbers
@PoliticoRyan
@POLITICO_Steve
@JMilesColeman
@kkondik
Link to project
15
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#NEW
Democratic Primary Update
Win Nomination
Biden - 99.9%
Sanders - 0.1%
Projected Delegates
Biden - 2218
Sanders - 1574
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@DrJasonJohnson
@marcushjohnson
27
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#NEW
Redistricting Project Up!
The new interactive compares the new congressional maps for the 2020s to the old 2010 maps. The in-depth state pages compares the geography and demographics of districts to its predecessors.
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129
#FINAL
Virginia Gov. Projection.
@GlennYoungkin
is ever so slightly favored in this tossup for the governorship.
Full Projection>>
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🚧🚧🏗️Under Construction🏗️🚧🚧
First Look at Biden v. Trump
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@RachelBitecofer
@LarrySabato
@kkondik
@StatesPoll
Opinions on layout welcome. ( will create a mobile friendly version later)
33
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116
Trump Slump continues.
His chance of winning the Presidency drops to an all time low of 28.3%
Forecast Link
14
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114
Been a while, but here's a new project I'm working on.
Showing county trends in states over the last 20 years.
Only done with Texas right now, and just a starting point of features.
5
17
112
Changes this month in the first four states.
@JoeBiden
&
@BernieSanders
up in all four.
@TomSteyer
up in NH & SC.
@PeteButtigieg
down in all four.
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@2020Delegates
@SenhorRaposa
@JMilesColeman
Full forecast>>
18
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#NEW
Senate Forecast Update
—
GOP favored in 50,
DEM favored in 50.
Gonna be close.
—
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@marcushjohnson
@SenhorRaposa
@JMilesColeman
—
Link —>
9
27
109
NEW!
Presidential Election Simulator based off the forecast. Will add more features on to it but check it out!
@Politics_Polls
@PpollingNumbers
@SenhorRaposa
@JMilesColeman
@RachelBitecofer
@marcushjohnson
@DrJasonJohnson
@FrankLuntz
@gelliottmorris
Link
17
26
111
#NEW
Senate Forecast Update
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@marcushjohnson
Forecast Link
18
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108
I was not able to get my internship thins summer due to COVID-19, so I started a Patreon. Any contribution would be great, just to make a little money for the hours I put into the website.
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@marcushjohnson
@RachelBitecofer
7
18
104
New small project. Just my take on the polling averages, very similar to fivethirtyeight. just got bored during class.
Link
6
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Presidential Forecast - Texas
Win
Trump - 71.9%
Biden - 28.9%
Vote
Trump - 50.3%
Biden - 46.8%
Other - 2.9%
Link
8
24
98
New addition to State Partisan Trends Page.
A table is now available to look at the data in a sortable fashion.
6
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IA, NH, NV, SC Projections as of 1/16/20.
Projected Delegate Totals after SC:
Biden - 72
Sanders - 45
Warren - 24
Buttigieg - 15
Everyone else - 0
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@2020Delegates
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
Link for full Forecast>>>
15
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90
After new Quinnipiac Poll,
@JoeBiden
and
@BernieSanders
essentially tied as favorites.
@MikeBloomberg
continues his rise.
@USA_Polling
@Politics_Polls
@PpollingNumbers
@DrJasonJohnson
@marcushjohnson
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@2020Delegates
Link
17
28
92
Update on the House redistricting project.
One of my favorite projects if not favorite I have worked on.
3
15
98
Presidential Simulator finally fixed!!!
Simulates the election once based on the forecast.
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@marcushjohnson
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@RachelBitecofer
@daveweigel
@ForecasterEnten
One of my favorite projects!
14
24
93
Update to House forecast.
Better graphics and table to find the district you are looking for. Will have district by district pages up soon.
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@SenhorRaposa
@JMilesColeman
@marcushjohnson
8
16
92
Current South Carolina Projections
@PpollingNumbers
@pollreport
@Politics_Polls
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
link forecast>>
27
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89
The state polls have recently been more favorable for Biden compared to national polls. The graph below shows the difference.
Check it out at
9
22
82
Presidential forecast analysis is up.
Will be adding more when I get the data, as well as one for qualitative.
link
8
13
85
New project out in collaboration with
@PpollingNumbers
.
Who Beats Trump?
The project shows who beats Trump and how they fare in battleground states, along with polls you can sort.
link to project
2
15
87
Those Sienna/NYT have really moved this race.
Forecast Link
7
16
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6
17
84
#NEW
Senate Forecast Update.
@PpollingNumbers
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@Politics_Polls
Forecast Link
4
14
83
Update to Democratic Primary Forecast!
@pollreport
@Politics_Polls
@PpollingNumbers
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@2020Delegates
@RachelBitecofer
@DrJasonJohnson
@marcushjohnson
Full Forecast
16
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81
#NEW
Democratic Primary Update
Win Majority
Biden - 85%
Sanders - 11%
No one -4%
Proj. delegates
Biden - 2145
Sanders - 1646
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@DrJasonJohnson
@LarrySabato
@marcushjohnson
@RachelBitecofer
8
20
82
#NEW
Senate Forecast Launch!
Republicans slightly favored at launch
@LarrySabato
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@kkondik
@marcushjohnson
@RachelBitecofer
@gelliottmorris
@PoliticoRyan
@alexburnsNYT
Forecast Link>>
10
15
77
NEW Democratic Primary Update!!
Projected Delegates after Super Tuesday
Biden - 582
Sanders - 582
@2020Delegates
@Politics_Polls
@PpollingNumbers
@RachelBitecofer
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@Nate_Cohn
@DrJasonJohnson
@marcushjohnson
Link to forecast
15
30
71
#NEW
Senate Forecast Comparison.
Forecasts on right now :
@jhkersting
@RachelBitecofer
@CookPolitical
@CNalysis
@politico
@InsideElections
@LeanTossup
@LarrySabato
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@kkondik
@PoliticoRyan
Project Link
6
26
75
NEW Project Up!
Pollster and Forecaster Accuracy Tracking!
Calculates what pollsters and forecasters are predicting the primary the best.
@Politics_Polls
@PpollingNumbers
@USA_Polling
@SeanTrende
@SeanMcElwee
@RealClearNews
@LeanTossup
@djjohnso
Link
0
18
72
Biden regains status as front runner.
@rudnicknoah
@SenhorRaposa
@LarrySabato
@Politics_Polls
@donnermaps
@ElectionMapsCo
@JMilesColeman
@Garrett_Archer
@PoliticsWolf
@Redistrict
@gelliottmorris
@270toWin
@RachelBitecofer
@2020Delegates
Forecast below
11
34
68
New addition to Forecast Comparison
Race to 270
@RachelBitecofer
@CookPolitical
@InsideElections
@PoliticoRyan
@LarrySabato
@CNalysis
@LeanTossup
@plural_vote
@kkondik
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@JMilesColeman
@SenhorRaposa
@NiskanenCenter
7
23
70
#NEW
Forecast Database project finished.
Take a deep dive at how forecasters have performed individually or as a whole in different elections since '16.
As of now 98 different forecasts from 29 forecasters.
3
20
72
Trump starting to slump
@rudnicknoah
@SenhorRaposa
@LarrySabato
@Politics_Polls
@donnermaps
@ElectionMapsCo
@mcimaps
@JMilesColeman
@Garrett_Archer
@PoliticsWolf
@Redistrict
@gelliottmorris
@270toWin
@RachelBitecofer
@StatesPoll
@politicalwire
Forecast >>
13
25
65
New page for all the projects. Still in the work but pretty decent right now.
Trying out a new graphic to show time changes instead of line charts
@SenhorRaposa
@JMilesColeman
Link
7
7
65
#NEW
Democratic Primary Update
@PpollingNumbers
@Politics_Polls
@marcushjohnson
@DrJasonJohnson
@JMilesColeman
Win Majority
Biden - 9,997 out of 10k
No One - 2 out of the 10k
Sanders - 1 out of my to 10k
Proj. Delegates
Biden - 2284
Sanders - 1554
6
18
60
2024 Presidential prediction project along with experts ratings now complete.
Submit your ratings and get added to the project.
See what the experts are predicting for 2024.
..
6
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