Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
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chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat.
Washington, DC
Joined January 2012
It's easy for me to say this, but I would encourage people to apply!.The analyst job, in particular, is one where there may not be any candidate who is exceptionally well-qualified across the board. Not many jobs like it
@Nate_Cohn Really appreciate that you put a salary range on these positions. While I don't really meet one of the basic qualifications (familiarity with election data), it's still tempting to apply because it sounds cool, and I've been interested in elections/followed polls for a long time.
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Third, Deputy Editor. As the team grows, coverage will expand beyond flagship products like the needle and the NYT/Siena poll. You'll help turn a growing team and a trove of data into wider set of articles and products for before, during and after elections.
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Second, Election Researcher. You'll help collect and clean the data that goes into our poll averages and the needle, and you'll help analyze it too .
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First, Election Analyst. You'll work with me on the models behind our operation, from voter file models of someone's race and education to the likely result of every county and precinct ahead of an election.
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We have a lot of job postings in the world NYT elections. Click to see more.
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If you're interested elections and you're excited to apply your technical skills and ingenuity to novel problems in a high-profile setting, this might just be the job for you.
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Job alert! .We’re hiring someone to help work on some of the most essential elements of our election polling and modeling here at the New York Times.
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(This kind of dedication often works -- you may have noticed that it deduced the final Milwaukee dump would be better for Harris than MKE to that point -- but if a place like CA *is* different than modeled, post-2020 mirages mean the model can't be sure until it's nearly done).
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(The needle had no special knowledge of late ballots in California in making this estimate. The reasoning is deductive: Harris doing worse than model expected, and post-2020 the needle doesn't give much weight to partial returns, so it thinks what's left must be decent for her).
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Our last estimate was Trump to win the popular vote by 1.6 points, and this supposed (rightly or wrongly) that Harris would do quite a bit better in late returns in California than she had to this point (ending at H+20, v +17 right now).
@Nate_Cohn Any idea on Trump's final margin? Does he hold the PV? I would imagine outstanding mail ballots in California to be pretty blue.
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Last I checked, the tallied vote was approaching 143 million. There's a lot of vote left to count in the vote-by-mail West, and it should be noted that the prior estimate doesn't account for any possible reporting by state officials on the actual number of remaining mail ballots.
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Our last estimate for the final turnout in the presidential election is 157.5 million, almost matching 2020 in raw votes though falling a tick lower as share of eligible voters, given population growth.
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One overarching theme here: a lot of what really mattered in this election probably happened 2+ years ago. Indeed, the results by state are more correlated with our 2022-House based estimates than the 2020 result.
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(Here's the four scenarios, where really only 3 and 4 are worth consideration post-election).
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The 4 scenarios piece is a nice way to look at it, and I agree that 3 is the best fit -- though I'll call it scenario 3.375, given that none of the potential Democratic strength from scenario 3 materialized .
@Nate_Cohn Nate, I read your article the night before the election vis a vis the election scenarios and it looks like scenario 3 came true.
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And my initial first post-election take. Hardly comprehensive and written from 4AM-6AM on Weds, so if you find it lacking you'll just have to give me a break for a bit and wait .
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Why the EC-PV gap shrunk (it appears essentially nonexistent right now): the lasting effect of the pandemic and the upheaval that followed
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Why we should expect big swings in this election that departed from 2020.
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Why this election probably ought to have been a clear Republican victory / why Trump was harder for Democrats to beat than they assumed.
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It's going to take some time to sort through everything, but I thought I'd post a few things that have already been written that nonetheless feel relevant after the election.
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