
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
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chief political analyst, @nytimes. writing about elections, public opinion and demographics for @UpshotNYT. polling and needling. PNW expat.
Washington, DC
Joined January 2012
It's easy for me to say this, but I would encourage people to apply!.The analyst job, in particular, is one where there may not be any candidate who is exceptionally well-qualified across the board. Not many jobs like it
@Nate_Cohn Really appreciate that you put a salary range on these positions. While I don't really meet one of the basic qualifications (familiarity with election data), it's still tempting to apply because it sounds cool, and I've been interested in elections/followed polls for a long time.
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Our last estimate was Trump to win the popular vote by 1.6 points, and this supposed (rightly or wrongly) that Harris would do quite a bit better in late returns in California than she had to this point (ending at H+20, v +17 right now).
@Nate_Cohn Any idea on Trump's final margin? Does he hold the PV? I would imagine outstanding mail ballots in California to be pretty blue.
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The 4 scenarios piece is a nice way to look at it, and I agree that 3 is the best fit -- though I'll call it scenario 3.375, given that none of the potential Democratic strength from scenario 3 materialized .
@Nate_Cohn Nate, I read your article the night before the election vis a vis the election scenarios and it looks like scenario 3 came true.
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