our polling averages at https://t.co/z06GGTkLFw are looking to be the most accurate of any major aggregator (esp if you look at the Dem. leads a couple weeks ago, when other averages were getting whiplashed by partisan firms — which I called out here: https://t.co/qTIJp3zMgc)

8 Senate Democrats saw charts like these and decided "oh yes, now that public opinion is on our side and our opponent is facing electoral consequences for their policy choices, now is a great time to give up all of our leverage in health care negotiations" https://t.co/kVbEroTFdS

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https://t.co/R1u66JYrKp

I think it's just plain downright stupid to compare Zohran Mamdani's margin in NYC, in 3-person race off the usual left-right spectrum, to Kamala Harris' margin in 2024. This is like saying Bill Clinton (43% of the vote) underperformed compared to Michael Dukakis (who won 45.7%)

Donald Trump is Joe Biden now. POTUS's job approval on prices is where Biden's was during peak inflation in 2022-23. Voters say 2:1 that Trump has made the economy worse. Oh, and consumer sentiment among independents hit a new all-time low in November,

AtlasIntel, the self-proclaimed “best pollster in America,” missed last week’s elections by an average of 9 points across races and by 14 points in New Jersey. Back in June, I wrote about how their accuracy in 2024 distracted from bigger methods issues:

Ipsos finds Trump’s approval rating is decreasing almost entirely because of anti-incumbent economic anxiety. Approval rating among people who say the economy is the # 1 issue is -24pts since Jan. It’s stable for people who index on all other issues https://t.co/y2wDM9XMf5

Can Democrats learn something from Zohran Mamdani’s mobilizing of and strength with first-time voters? https://t.co/MoZqP3pJ56

"overwhelming defeat" is when you lose by a point and a half (historically narrow) https://t.co/dwqL9X2yq9

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Paul Krugman and I sit down to talk about the 2025 elections. What do Democrats' big wins forecast for 2026? Why are elites from Democratic consultants to The New York Times Editorial Board concluding the wrong lessons from 2024? Why were polls off? https://t.co/wW7q6PJPRu

many people in the press overinterpreted trump's win in 2024 because they wanted kamala harris to win, and felt a crushing blow in her defeat. but his victory was quite small historically and polls showed no support for his agenda. now, w/ elec results, people are coming around

Trump at a -16 net approval rating among all adults now, per our average at https://t.co/vNmCFPHtzv, and flirting with dropping below 40% approval. https://t.co/CSLBJaLI7L

Prediction markets (including Kalshi) got the VA Governor and LG races right, also did pretty well on the VA House of Delegates, but definitely did NOT get the VA AG race right https://t.co/oKQvjMK3IR h/t @gelliottmorris cc: @ZhouJaron

$ROSE Oasis reunion? Oasis Network comeback?

In the much hyped demographic subgroups, the blue shift from 2024 to 2025 is twice as large as the red shift from 2020 to 2024.

"It is clear now that claims of a fundamental realignment of American politics have been highly exaggerated." @gelliottmorris https://t.co/YIM3uCWmaR

Update: looks like the gender row in my table published this morning got messed up somehow. apologies. adjusted table and explanation here

Also: This was all utterly predictable. The change in subgroup results from 2024 to 25 is highly correlated with Trump's approval ratings among key demographic groups from Jan to Nov. If you had a subscription to Strength In Numbers, you saw this coming: https://t.co/PzKxwsvUOI

link

Democratic gains in this week's elections erased the inroads Trump made with non-white, young, and low-income voters in 2024. In fact, the R-to-D shift from 24 to 25 is double Trump's gains from 2020-24. Claims of a Trump-powered realignment have been highly exaggerated

IMO the "Mikie Sherrill is low quality" thing was always a bunch of low IQ bs. She led in the good polls and partisan firms tilted the narrative against her

i think the L is actually bigger for the ppl arguing that Spanberger was beating Sherrill bc she had signaled her moderation by supporting right to work laws — and then they both end up doing exactly the same. proof that "moderation" isn't really worth much and other fx dominate

Junior Year stats: WR 48 receptions: 634 yards/ 10TDs/ 3 two point conversions. 6 rushes: 44 yards/ 1 TD 3/3 passes: 66 yards/ 1 TD 900(+) all purpose yards DB 20(+) TKLs/ 2 TFL 5 PBUs I'm thankful for all my coaches and teammates for this opportunity. @CoachBlackstock