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(((Harry Enten))) Profile
(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten

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Son of a man who was far from perfect, but I loved him anyway. Host of CNN's Margins of Error, a podcast about statistical stories. https://t.co/9MdpDsMxJd

I trust no living human, but I do trust the polls.
Joined April 2010
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
7 years
Let's start a cute dog thread... Whose got a pup photo they wanna share?
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
1 day
Trump reclassifying marijuana would be some of his best politics in a long time. It'd be a great issue against Dems. Why? -Most Americans think it should be legal (64% vs. 12%! in 1969) -It's especially popular with younger voters, who have swung wildly in recent elections
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
2 days
Americans ain't buying Trump's economic spin. The % saying we're on the wrong economic track has skyrocketed since Jan from 43% to 56%. This has caused a massive shift to the left on who's trusted more on inflation: it's now Dems +4 pts vs. GOP +14 going into the 2022 midterms.
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@Teamsters
Teamsters
24 hours
Nationwide, the Teamsters represent more than 10,000 workers at Sysco, and that collective strength is delivering real results. Teamsters are winning amazing contracts — including the first-ever regional agreement negotiated by West Coast Teamsters in California and Nevada.
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
3 days
GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
4 days
I think we will have many cute photos of dogs in the snow tmrw around the NYC metro. Should be a good time for all of us :).
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
5 days
The Indiana GOP shows something key: Trump's, to quote Rocky IV, "Not a machine. He's a man!" 2024 Trump voters who strongly approve of him is down 16 pts from March. GOP voters still like him, but don't love him as much. Mid-decade redistricting ends up as a "nothingburger".
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
7 days
Miami elected its 1st Dem mayor since the Birdcage era (great 1990s film). It's another sign Latinos have shifted heavily against Trump (drop of 36 pts in net approval). Also, Trump's absolute kryptonite to the GOP in big cities. Just 7 big city GOP mayors left vs 14 in 2017.
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
13 days
Trump says the discussion over affordability is a "con job", but Americans disagree. -Google searches for affordability are the highest since the Great Recession -Americans top issue is cost of living -% satisfied with access to affordable housing? 36%. Down from 69% in 2014
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
14 days
Companies aren't the only ones upset with Trump's tariffs... Americans' opposition is way up. A year ago, 52% of Americans favored the tariffs. Today, it's just 38%. 62% oppose. Why? Goes back to affordability/prices. North of 70% say tariffs raise prices. No Bueno for Trump.
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
14 days
The GOP should be running for the hills, as the blue wave is building. Tuesday's result in TN-07 is part of a larger pattern of Dems outrunning Harris 2024 in 6 specials by 13+ pts. 5 of 5 times since 2005 the party that outperforms in specials ahead of midterms win the House.
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
15 days
There have been zero reputable polls over the last year where Pete Hegseth has had a net positive favorable rating. ZERO. Every one has had him negative. Per Kalshi, the chance Hegseth is the first to leave Trump's cabinet has skyrocketed since Friday... Going from 18% to 35%.
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
15 days
TN-07's ruby red, but odds are Dems will come within 10 pts of a win (if not outright win) in tonight's special. That'd be part of a pattern of Dems outrunning Harris' 2024 showing in every special House elex this year (by avg of 15+ pts). Major GOP warning sign ahead of 2026.
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
16 days
Gallup's poll = disaster for Trump. Nixon's the only prez with a worse net approval at this point in a 2nd term than him. Trump must break history for the GOP to keep House control in 2026. No 2nd term pres' net approval rose more than 5 pts from this pt through the midterms.
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
17 days
Tough Bills team showed up today. Best win since week 1. Tremendous stuff! I'll be up in Buffalo/Orchard Park next weekend... See y'all up there :).
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
22 days
On pure politics, it's clear that Dems won the shutdown. -Trump's approval is at 2nd term lows -Dems' generic ballot lead has expanded -ACA subsidies still have a 50%+ chance of extension -If they aren't, Dems can use issue as political cudgel over GOP. 70% support extension
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
23 days
Trump's support with GOP voters remains, to quote Bob Seger, like a rock. 87% approve of him, equal to 6 months ago & higher than any other 21st century prez had within their own party at this point in term 2. MTG knew going up vs. Trump in a primary is like facing a buzzsaw.
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
26 days
This has been the worst 10-day polling period for Trump in his 2nd term. His overall net approval hit record lows in 5 polls. His net approval with independents is down 39 pts from January to -43 pts. His net approval on inflation is down to -34 pts. Just atrocious.
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
27 days
New Marquette poll should be truly frightening to the GOP. The Dem's generic House ballot lead nearly doubled from 5 to 9 pts going from all voters to those certain to vote in 2026. A sign of a "hidden" Dem advantage that polls of all voters, most right now, could be missing.
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
28 days
Trump's foreign approval rating is up like a rocket compared to term 1. He has the highest foreign policy approval rating at this point in his term 2 of any 21st century president. Big reason why: Israel-Hamas conflict. E.g. His net approval is 40 pts higher than Biden's was.
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@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
29 days
Trump usually has his finger on the pulse of the GOP base, but not on the Epstein files. His approval was south of 50% on the issue. 67% of the GOP wanted all the files released. And his problem wasn't going away. Highest Google search traffic for Epstein was this past week.
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