Larry Sabato
@LarrySabato
Followers
198K
Following
56K
Media
1K
Statuses
61K
Director, UVA @Center4Politics. Author, The Kennedy Half Century https://t.co/JYUokVHxEZ. Read the Crystal Ball every week: https://t.co/zPYuO6A8f9
Joined February 2009
A favorite JFK quote: "The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in times of great moral crisis, maintain their neutrality.'.
2K
66K
153K
CANCEL THE REMAINING PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES. It is impossible to have an orderly, productive exchange with Donald Trump. Stop pretending otherwise. #Debate2020.
3K
12K
61K
I’m old-fashioned but treason seems like a serious crime. I’m not a lawyer but the PowerPoint seems like real evidence that a treasonous coup was planned.
526
6K
40K
This was NOT an especially close election. #PresidentElectBiden won 306 EVs plus a 4-5 million-votes plurality. You want close? Look at 1960,1968,1976,2000, among others. NETWORKS—Stop feeding this false storyline.
522
7K
30K
I'm no John F. Kennedy (thanks, Lloyd Bentsen), but if I were writing a book today, it wouldn't be "Profiles in Courage", it would be "Profiles in Cowardice"--and every chapter would feature a Republican in high office. The GOP's enabling of Trump has turned into pure sycophancy.
506
4K
25K
As a Virginian (and damn proud of it), I'd remind the President that his order to "LIBERATE VIRGINIA" was already tried when his friends visited Charlottesville in August 2017.
681
5K
24K
Why isn’t Trump’s outrageous call for televised military tribunals for his enemies leading every newscast? WHY? Never has a President proposed such a sick thing. Are you all completely numb to the dictatorial future Trump projects for America? Some of you will be featured in the.
Donald - This is the type of thing that demonstrates yet again that you are not a stable adult—and are not fit for office.
1K
8K
23K
Dear Pundit Friends, please stop attributing this D landslide in VA to "changing demographics". VA hasn't changed that much since last Nov. 8 (Hillary by 5%). The bigger explanation is a backlash to Trump and Trumpism, pure and simple. #VAGov.
744
7K
22K
Ban Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) from Twitter immediately and permanently.
331
4K
22K
Hold the Presses! Trump has just ruled out picking Mike Pence again for his 2024 ticket. Who would have guessed?.
2K
2K
22K
Biggest loser this week was unquestionably Trump. But Josh Hawley was a runner-up. Many Senators now despise him, the public saw a craven opportunist giving the mob a clenched-fist salute, his top sponsor Jack Danforth denounced him & a publisher canceled his book. More to come.
753
3K
21K
You know what I heard that weekend? Not one single comment about Robert E. Lee. But I did hear racial slurs and the chants, "Jews will not replace us!" and "Into the ovens!" Very fine people, indeed.
Trump defends his “very fine people” comments on Charlottesville: “People were there protesting the taking down of the monument of Robert E. Lee. Everybody knows that.” Fact check: There were many neo-Nazis and white supremacists.
595
6K
20K
Yep, it's #sedition. Let's hope the Secret Service and military leaders have a serious, detailed plan to remove all trespassers from the White House at noon on January 20.
872
3K
19K
Just watched #MeetThePress, whole hour on climate change, with deniers excluded. Real science matters. Message: We’d better act fast. Hey @chucktodd do this more often.
919
3K
18K
January 31, 2020: Britain withdraws from Europe and America withdraws from the Constitution.
2K
6K
18K
If anybody needs me, I'll be out guarding Virginia's potatoes.
628
2K
17K
Look around. Youngkin's "snitch line" on teachers is backfiring badly.
615
2K
16K
Congratulations to @RepLizCheney, one of 5 winners of the 2022 John F. Kennedy Profiles in Courage Award. Just announced. So well deserved.
446
2K
17K
Please, please don't EVER bring back a live audience. Without verbal interruptions and the candidates playing to the crowd they see, the debate became the kind of serious exchange the voters need. #DemocraticDebate.
194
2K
18K
If you think the revelations in John Bolton’s book are shocking, just imagine what is going to come out after Trump leaves the White House. Every aide and maid will have mind-boggling stories to tell.
424
3K
16K
The Republican Party is no longer salvageable—at least a sane center-right version the country needs as an alternative. I resisted accepting this for a long time. But Trump, Jan 6, Greene et al made me face it. Not sure what’s next & best, or how to get there. #RepublicanParty.
870
3K
15K
POLL NUMBERS ARE NOT VOTES. Also. POLL NUMBERS ARE NOT VOTES. Overconfidence has ruined many a victory party.
255
3K
15K
I love historical documentaries. I’m currently watching one about the 1939 pro-Nazi rally at Madison Square Garden. Oh wait, it’s a live Trump rally! My bad.
8K
2K
15K
Exclusive/CNN--Judge Michael Luttig, widely respected conservative jurist, endorses Kamala Harris--his FIRST Democratic vote. Issues a remarkable statement to explain why.
419
5K
14K
So far Ron DeSantis has run a failing campaign. But here’s the good news: DeSantis has developed skills which, in some instances, can be applied for his personal benefit.
543
2K
14K
Every one of the 126 GOP House members who signed onto Texas’s ridiculous lawsuit to overturn Biden’s election (just DENIED by the Supreme Court) should hang their heads in shame. Same with the 18 state AGs, most of all the AG of TEXAS.
682
2K
14K
Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA)'s victory is significant. She was dealt a bad hand by redistricting, but her campaign was top-flight and her energy and savvy were extraordinary. More Democrats across the nation should study how she did this. #Virginiaelections.
110
2K
13K
Big change: Americans want term limits for Supreme Court justices by 66% to 21%, and favor expanding the Court by 55% to 36%. (Morning Consult poll for @politico) When I tested public appetite for Court reforms in 2007 (part of "A More Perfect Constitution") resistance was great.
486
4K
12K
Secret Service protection must be given to the top candidates ASAP. The invasion of the stage at the Biden rally could have had a tragic ending. It's happened to Sanders too. In memory of RFK, do it immediately. RT if you agree. #supertuesday2020.
241
7K
12K
Horror stories about Trump will continue as more books and memoirs are published. How can anyone be surprised by the revelations? Trump was and is a maniac—the single greatest mistake ever made by the American electorate.
522
2K
12K
Donald Trump is as guilty as sin itself, testimony or no testimony. He is one of the great villains of American history, joined in the rogues gallery by his enablers as well as the cowards who refused to speak out against him. #January6thCommittee.
991
2K
12K
That sound you hear isn't just Democrats cheering, it's the air going out of tomorrow's GOP clown show in Congress. The Fools on the Hill have picked the wrong cause and bet on the wrong horse. #GASenateRaces #SeditionCaucus.
172
2K
11K
Poll numbers are not votes. Poll numbers are not votes. Poll numbers are not votes. Poll numbers are not votes. Poll numbers are not votes. Poll numbers are not votes. Poll numbers are not votes. Poll numbers are not votes. Poll numbers are not votes. Poll numbers are not votes.
264
3K
11K
CLEARANCE SALE: all 'Youngkin for President 2024' merchandise. A free MyPillow comes with all purchases over $1. NO RETURNS.
430
2K
11K
Last night’s Trump rally proved again that vulgar antics thrill his base. The office hasn’t made the man; instead, Trump has re-made the office, lowering standards of acceptable presidential behavior so far that it will take great efforts by his successors to repair the damage.
2K
4K
11K
Very proud of Chris Krebs, on “60 Minutes” right now. He stood up to Donald Trump, a pathological liar, and Trump fired him—an honor that will be hailed by history. Krebs is a @UVA alum and took a class from me. Chris is a role model for all young people and every @UVA graduate.
“I have confidence in the security of this election… Any attacks on the election were not successful,” says Chris Krebs, former head of CISA, a federal agency charged with election security. POTUS fired Krebs after CISA called the 2020 election secure.
360
2K
11K
You rarely if ever see near-unanimity like this: new Quinnipiac poll shows, by 95-4%, Americans favor universal background checks. Highest % ever. Broad support for other gun reforms too. Crickets in DC, as usual.
203
6K
10K
Those of you who insisted the Quinnipiac poll was an outlier (Biden job approval 38%) have a stronger case. New CBS poll (50% approval) and Ipsos (48% approval) suggest Biden either was never at 38% or has recovered lost ground.
609
2K
10K
199 Republican congressmen refused to punish a dangerous loony tune in their ranks. Only 11 did so. The Republican Party is not salvageable. But I repeat myself. #MarjorieTaylorGreen.
245
2K
10K
Never in my 60 years around politics have I encountered this many people so tense, so full of dread and foreboding about an election--and what comes afterward. Of course, we've never before had a president undermining confidence and predicting fraud & mayhem--if he doesn't win.
439
2K
10K
The Crystal Ball team has just met in emergency session, and in the fastest rating change in our history, we are moving NC GOVERNOR from Lean D to LIKELY D.
And here is the CNN article on Mark Robinson, just posted.
248
2K
10K
Win or lose, @BetoORourke may be drafted to run for the D POTUS nomination. No one else in the D field seems to come close to matching his appeal to the grassroots.
311
2K
10K
Things are so bad we’ve reached the point where Republicans won’t agree to investigate the Jan. 6th insurrection—America’s first real attempted coup. The GOP fears (and knows) what a commission would find—more traitors to the Nation in their own Capitol Hill ranks. #January6th.
345
3K
10K
Sen. Ron Johnson is a disgrace. But only 1 Senator has voted against every single Biden Cabinet nominee so far: the infamous Josh Hawley(R-MO), last seen giving a fist salute in solidarity w/ the insurrectionist mob on Jan. 6. Why are the good people of #Missouri tolerating this?.
337
2K
10K
Everyone expected Trump to be a poor loser. He is, inventing nonexistent fraud & making flimsy excuses. But GOP “leaders” are coddling him, indulging his stubborn delusions. A predictably disgraceful ending to the worst presidency in U.S. history. #Shame.
336
2K
10K
New poll from @CBSNews @FaceTheNation (@YouGov) shows 70% of Republicans still believe Trump's Big Lie that Biden is not the legitimate winner of the White House. It still shocks & disgusts me that millions of Americans would embrace such a dangerous untruth.
837
2K
9K
OK @CNN, you owe all of us a DETAILED explanation of how this audience was picked--who did it? who pre-screened the questions? why weren't more diverse participants selected? how did the Trump team influence any of this? ETC ETC ETC. #CNNTownhall.
884
2K
9K
You'd never know it from the TV coverage we're watching, but President Biden's address on #Afghanistan was effective because he stressed that America's longest war must end and there will never be a good time to do it. That connected with most people--70% of whom want out now.
338
1K
9K
Yes, Gov. Josh Shapiro could have brought a bigger payoff (19 Electoral Votes) but Gov. Tim Walz fills the age-old bill for VP nominees: First, do no harm.
835
622
9K
Ignore the Washington Post - ABC poll. It’s a ridiculous outlier (Trump up 10 over Biden—laughable). My question: How could you even publish a poll so absurd on its face? Will be a lingering embarrassment for you.
3K
2K
9K
Disgusting, disgraceful, and unworthy of anyone who respects the First Amendment—not to mention basic manners. POTUS and his crew refuse to put a stop to this. Future generations will wonder why we the people let this happen, and there’s no good answer. Mob rule, pure & simple.
This is what’s happening at the Trump rally in Tampa as @Acosta does a live shot. Folks booing, shouting “traitor,” and “you’re a liar.”
3K
3K
8K
WARNING: These are just real election results, not headline-worthy polling data certified by the New York Times. Respected network pundits will disregard these actual votes and await the next batch of contrived polls.
In the Huntsville AL area, Democrats have flipped state House District 10 tonight. In 2022, Marilyn Lands (D) lost by about 7 points. This time, she won by almost 25%, sweeping nearly everything. This was a stronger margin here than Doug Jones's 23-point spread from 2017.
289
2K
8K
Over and over again, this most disgracefully authoritarian, narcissistic, and purely selfish President makes statements like this, and those in the GOP hierarchy refuse to condemn it. History will not forget or forgive.
477
3K
8K
The media will never admit it, but they've been waiting for an opportunity to harshly go after Biden to prove anew how "balanced" they are. "See, it's not just Trump!" #Afghanistan.
579
2K
8K
TRUMP'S JOB APPROVAL has fallen to 33% (60% disapprove)--matching his ALL-TIME LOW from August 2017. Gee, what happened then? I'll ask around here in Charlottesville. (Quinnipiac Poll, released today, 1,239 registered voters, MOE 2.8%).
246
2K
8K
Press & pundits have now progressed to flat predictions of Dem tsunami in Nov. midterms. Quite possible given Trump. but also premature. Fine to be motivated by good polls, but let 2016 be a cautionary tale. Overconfidence about an election 10 months away can be deadly.
391
3K
8K
10 pizzas for the 5 students from my Campaigns class who actually showed up tonight. All the others, see what you missed? Happy Pizzagiving!
266
260
8K
For those moaning about the latest NYTimes/Siena Poll:. --Election is a full year away. --Biden's likely opponent faces 91 counts in multiple jurisdictions. --Economy is clearly improving, but it takes many months for voters to perceive and believe it. Keep calm. Carry on.
4K
2K
8K
Rumor: RFK Jr is dropping out Friday and endorsing Trump. IF TRUE (1) Kennedy is barely relevant, at 5% & falling. (2) He can’t transfer much support, esp. to Trump. His backers will splinter. (3) RFK Jr makes Trump-Vance ticket even weirder.
1K
1K
8K
I’m not permitted to endorse candidates, but I’m going to make an exception.
224
2K
8K
The Republican Party hasn’t been the party of Lincoln for decades. The GOP has become the party of Jefferson—Jefferson Davis, that is.
341
1K
8K
Best provisions in Biden proposal: (1) Cutting off a candidate’s mic when his time is up—only way to insure fair allocation of time; (2) No live audience—a disruptive, irritating distraction. Many of us have advocated for these rules for years.
542
1K
8K
If you are not watching @RepLizCheney on live TV, you should be. Absolutely devastating for Trump--even FOX hosts were texting Meadows, demanding Trump do something. EVEN DONALD JUNIOR texted, demanding the same. Crickets from the White House for hours. #January6thCommittee.
172
1K
8K
Where is the Secret Service? Where is the FBI? @SecretService @FBI Some of Trump’s cult are crazy enough to do anything.
Trump Posts Image of Joe Biden Kidnapped And Bound With Rope. Trump signals approval of violent imagery targeting his political opponents.
833
3K
8K
Longtime major GOP donors and campaign workers in VA have told me last night and today that with Corey Stewart’s nomination, they are “done” with the party. Last straw, they say. Hard to know how widespread this is, but it’s not good news for Republicans.
637
3K
7K
I watched. She was what I expected: a complete, total LIAR who should never be forgiven for being a senior Trump enabler and trying to stop the peaceful transfer of power. No Traitors. #NoRonna.
310
2K
7K
What ex-Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, fired by Trump after he lost, issues a stark warning to Americans in a new book that Trump shouldn’t even be allowed into the Oval Office as a visitor, much less as President again. A flashing neon sign for all patriots not blind to truth.
225
2K
8K
New WaPo poll on VIRGINIA has Harris up 49-43%. That should end the ridiculous talk about VA suddenly becoming a tossup.
445
1K
7K
A new motto for the Washington Post!.
@LarrySabato “In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.”.― Martin Luther King Jr.
99
2K
7K
Donald Trump just endorsed incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) over the GOP primary challenger, George P. Bush—who sold out his own family to kiss Trump’s ass. No hero in this tale, just a reminder that there’s no honor among thieves—and a deal with the devil can backfire.
The left’s out of control policies are eroding the fabric of our nation. It was great to see Pres. Trump today & discuss how we must come together as a party to restore America First Priorities. I appreciate his friendship & kind words as we work together to Keep America Great.
451
1K
7K
Reluctantly, I’ve come to the conclusion that neither #HunterBiden nor #DonaldTrump should be elected President in 2024. Occasionally both sides-ism makes sense.
346
973
7K
Now I see why Trump has never before given an Oval Office address. Just. bloody. awful. #TrumpAddress.
316
1K
7K
THIS IS DISGRACEFUL VOTER SUPPRESSION: Texas Gov. Abbott restricts absentee ballot drop-off locations (one per county)
512
3K
7K
Just one poll in May. but @JoeBiden's home basement might turn out to be the best campaign HQ since Wm McKinley's front porch. NEW Quinnipiac Poll (national): Biden 50% - Trump 39%. 11 Biden, was +8 Biden in early April. Bigger D margin than other recent polls, though.
281
1K
7K
There was NEVER the slightest credible evidence of substantial election fraud even in the immediate wake of the 2020 election. Urged on by Trump, they INVENTED it. Now Trump's acolytes such as #JennaEllis claim they were just led astray. Trump nearly destroyed the peaceful.
Jenna Ellis: “I failed to do my due diligence. I believe in and I value election integrity. If I knew then what I know now, I would have declined to represent Donald Trump in these post election challenges. I look back on this whole experience with deep remorse.”
997
2K
7K
U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Alabama), "whose military background consists of using war metaphors to inspire his teams during three decades coaching college football," has bravely taken up the cause of WHITE NATIONALISTS in the U.S. military.
624
2K
7K
To no one’s surprise, 68% of Iowa caucus goers say Biden didn’t win legitimately in 2020. But I don’t hear anchors pushing back at every opportunity to say that is totally FALSE. Repetition is vital lest the Big Lie continue to spread. #IowaCaucuses.
805
2K
7K
Louisiana appears to have re-elected Gov. John Bel Edwards (D). Significant achievement in a very Republican, pro-Trump state. Another off-year feather in the cap for Dems to accompany winning KY Governor and VA General Assembly. #Louisianaelection.
116
1K
7K
It can’t be stated often enough: If Trump reclaims the White House, the American Republic dies. We came close enough the first time.
402
1K
7K
JFK's grandson hits RFK Jr very hard. Definitely worth a listen.
284
2K
7K
I sincerely apologize for looking so much like this insane man.
469
307
7K
Donald Trump is so manifestly guilty as charged that only members of his cult and GOP Senators afraid of this cult come down on the other side.
157
1K
6K
ABC is NOT enforcing the rules for Donald Trump. I know it's tough to corral an INSANE person, but this is your responsibility. Many of us are disappointed. #Debate2024.
372
1K
7K
Q: How stupid is the Arizona GOP? A: Very stupid. They just censured their GOP Governor (Ducey), their ex-U.S. Senator (Flake), AND--here's the topper--the widow of Sen. John McCain (Cindy McCain). It's becoming easy to see why @AZGOP lost BOTH Senate seats AND President.
Here are the margins on the censures of Cindy McCain, Doug Ducey and Jeff Flake, per @AZGOP:.Flake: 64-36.McCain: 62-38.Ducey: 59-41.
299
1K
7K
After nearly 50 years of association with Thomas Jefferson's University, I believe I know Mr. Jefferson. Thomas Jefferson has become a friend of mine. And one thing is certain: Donald Trump is no Thomas Jefferson--not in any good way that matters.
179
1K
6K
Roy Blunt is part of a trend. No D Senators have announced 2022 retirement. Five R Senators are retiring, one each in AL, MO, NC, OH, PA.
343
1K
6K
I’ve watched many a congressional hearing. Rarely have I felt as drained and outraged. Justice must be done all around, and that includes Republicans who’ve tried to sabotage an investigation into Donald Trump’s #January6th. #SelectCommitteeHearing #InsurrectionHasConsequences.
126
1K
6K
Congratulations to the news media on a terrific job of public education.
441
2K
6K
My nominee for best, most statesmanlike speech of this long day: Majority Leader Steny Hoyer.
172
781
6K
H.L. Mencken may have come closest to defining Donald Trump as well as the devious Republican politicians and media phonies who promote Trump’s Big Lie: “The demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots.” #MarkMeadows.
90
2K
6K
45 GOP Senators just voted that Trump's trial is unconstitutional since he isn't in office now. Those who thought 17 R Senators would somehow vote to convict Trump have presumably awakened from their dream. As guilty as Trump is, Rs still cower before him. #ImpeachAndConvict.
595
2K
6K
Spurning golf, Biden attends Mass weekly. Not everyone thinks this is the best use of his time. @washingtonpost.
313
828
6K
OF COURSE Nikki Haley is voting for Trump. There are very few prominent Republicans with the courage of Liz Cheney.
292
807
6K
Solid credible poll out of Wason Center-Christopher Newport University, just released:. Harris 52% (up 11%).Trump 41%. Senate.Kaine 55% (up 20%).Cao 35%.
393
943
6K
Trump pushed every button to illegally seize a second term. Shame on all those who conspired with Trump or enabled him! Extra shame on those Rs in Congress who still defend him despite a mountain of damning evidence.
250
1K
6K
Unlike most celebrities, who care only about themselves and are known mainly for their conspicuous consumption, @MarkHamill sets a wonderful example by getting involved in politics and standing for something much bigger than himself.
Actually, I am considered a D-list actor. The D is for "delightful.".
71
485
6K