Gerard DiPippo
@gdp1985
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Econ, China, food, mostly. RAND China Research Center. Former Bloomberg Economics, CSIS, DNIO for Economic Issues, and CIA. Views my own.
Washington, DC
Joined March 2011
In the latest China Leadership Monitor, I offer some thoughts on China's economy in the trade war. Lots of charts! (And I'm in the same edition as @jonczin, @ryanl_hass, and @NBorstSF.) https://t.co/osgit19xIy
prcleader.org
China is weathering deflation, a property-sector collapse, and renewed trade tensions with the United States through calculated restraint rather than panic. Exports remain resilient via market...
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Totally. China's official labor data is not good. The most useful series are the PMI employment sub indexes and private sector data on job listings. But that's not enough to confidently know levels. Plus official data on industry-level employment (outside of SOEs) barely exists.
@gdp1985 The real data scandal in China is with the labor market not growth indicators. Lots of ways of getting a handle on cyclical momentum, very little real info on what’s happening with hiring and firing
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But yes, I think there's something fishy about the investment data China is reporting. My operating theory is still local level over compliance with the "anti-involution" mandate, but I'm not sure. 4/
China's reported investment growth in its Q3 GDP statistics is hard to reconcile with the fixed asset investment data. My hunch is that overly zealous local officials are reporting lower investment numbers in FAI to signal compliance with the anti-involution campaign. 1/
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Also, if you want to see how you can tell a negative China macro story with the official data, please see my CLM piece. 3/
prcleader.org
China is weathering deflation, a property-sector collapse, and renewed trade tensions with the United States through calculated restraint rather than panic. Exports remain resilient via market...
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@andrewpolk81 and I discussed these data issues last month on the @triviumchina podcast. 2/
sinicapodcast.com
Tired of listening to the same old Trivium voices?
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This issue will never die. China's data is good enough to tell a pretty negative story. Domestic demand is growing at ~3%. The reason it doesn't feel like 5% RGDP is that the real world is nominal, and China is in deflation. But I don't believe the economy is contracting. 1/
This is a really great article about China's shitty economic data. I recommend the whole thing. Here are some key paragraphs.
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Here's a possible explanation. Higher exports from China crowd out production of high-tech goods and innovation in the rest of the world. Over the medium term, GDP in the rest of the world drops because of lower productivity growth.
1/ Fascinating and important report from Goldman Sachs. They have upgraded long-term GDP of China because of increased exports, but see this as reducing, not increasing, rest of world GDP. Chinese displacement of domestic manufacturing swamps any positives from cheaper goods.
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Great analysis, the first to consider the implications of Xi's war on the PLA under the post-2015 command structure.
Xi's military purges and reorganizations have reinforced his control over the PLA at the expense of its operational capabilities. I wrote about the new Central Military Commission and what it indicates about Xi's priorities and willingness to use force: https://t.co/FGZqB7IILL
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China published its 2024 figures for government procurement. Total procurement continues its gradual decline, likely due to fiscal constraints.
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DID YOU KNOW: the mushrooms in the mushroom shakshouka at Tatte taste like escargot?
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Fun conversation. Guess I need to buy the book for the global perspective.
NEW ODD LOTS: The origins of the biggest housing bubble in history. @tracyalloway and I speak to @Birdyword about how real estate became China's speculative investment of choice. And the policies which created a bubble that's still deflating today.
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China has suspended for one year its sweeping Oct 25 controls on REEs/tech and its Dec 24 license rules on critical minerals. But the April 25 controls on REEs remain in effect. General licenses for those will be the sticking point. https://t.co/1S7He4UORF
nytimes.com
The changes would make it easier for American firms to obtain key minerals, delivering on what the White House said the two countries had agreed to at last month’s summit.
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This week on the Trivium China Podcast from @triviumchina, @coryjcombs is back on the show to talk about what China did and didn't agree to in the talks in Busan when it comes to REE and other strategic minerals. @andrewpolk81 hosts as always! Link below.
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Excellent new article drawing on field research, interviews with local officials, and close reading of official documents, explaining how the Party has been building out organizational capacity to exert unprecedented (since Mao) influence over village governance (600,00+ units).
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And no, I don't buy that an extra day during the Golden Week holiday explains this.
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China's exports had been resilient overall despite high US tariffs. But in October, they stalled, mostly with non-Asian trade partners. Why?
China published its September trade data. The trend of Chinese exporters diverting trade away from the US and toward other markets continued.
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Rather than debate methodology, I'll ask why US consumers can afford such higher prices and what the implication of these findings are for China? No, it's not just the dollar. If the answer is, because the US is higher productivity, we need to talk about China's service sector.
Those bemoaning the eclipse of US manufacturing by China sometimes find comfort in the sheer difference in scale. Sure, they say, China produces a lot more stuff than the US -- but it also has roughly 10x as many manufacturing workers. 1/
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Very interesting piece. I have lots of thoughts. But one question is whether this claim about reclassification in US data is true. My impression is that the OMB ultimately decided against counting factoryless goods producers (FGPs) as "manufacturing". https://t.co/b5fq2dqVGZ
We just published a terrific guest piece from my friend Weijian Shan. I think it is a must read for anyone looking to understand China’s advances in manufacturing. https://t.co/8GtvAX3HUk The piece has no firewall and is open to everyone. Incidentally, Weijian Shan wrote one
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