This week on the Trivium China Podcast from @triviumchina, @coryjcombs is back on the show to talk about what China did and didn't agree to in the talks in Busan when it comes to REE and other strategic minerals. @andrewpolk81 hosts as always! Link below.

💡"Consumers are intelligent. Consumers go toward the best options at the best prices." @coryjcombs on balancing EV/battery manufacturing for security purposes while resisting incentives for consumer demand. 📺From USCC's April hearing on "China’s Domestic Energy Challenges"

🌎 Who controls the minerals that power the future? @annatashton (Ashton Analytics) and @coryjcombs (@triviumchina) join #PIPFellow @jessicamdicarlo (@UUtah) to unpack how China became a global leader in critical minerals. Watch:

We're still working through everything for clients, but I'll be posting more on the issue soon. Thoughts/questions? Be in touch. (For industry folks: yes, these materials have more uses -- ~70 that we track internally -- but these are top econ, security, and political concerns.)

3/5: Bismuth (including powders, blocks, and other forms) – an alloying agent, among its other niche industrial purposes 4/5: Molybdenum (including alloys) – used in various "superalloys" 5/5: Indium (including semiconductor material InP) – key to myriad electronics

1/5: Tungsten (including tungsten oxide, tungsten carbide, and myriad solid tungsten products) – the basis of some of the world's strongest metals 2/5: Tellurium (including industrial alloys) – used in semiconductors and steel

China has just issued arguably its most significant critical #mineral #export controls yet. (Quite an eventful return from the Lunar New Year break!) In short, using the dual-use export control list, #China will now require export licenses for the key products of:

Like other analysts, we're skeptical of Beijing's current international enforcement capabilities -- but Beijing will invest in developing them moving forward.

2) The ban's extra-territorial application sets a new precedent and trajectory for export controls. - Beijing aims to prevent domestic firms from seeking loopholes, incl. re-exports via third countries. - But it also warns US trading partners not to circumvent China's controls.

1) The clampdown is both an escalation from prior retaliation and a strategically measured response: - Escalatory in shifting from licensing reqs to outright blocks - Measured in maintaining current scope, hitting tech firms rather than expanding into broader trade measures

Last week I spoke with Bloomberg @business about China's ban on select critical mineral exports to the US. https://t.co/KZhPqGQ1mU Key takeaways:

Beijing has made leading-edge, highly-efficient manufacturing capabilities a top policy priority. In this analysis, @triviumchina experts @kendraschaefer and @coryjcombs provide an in-depth overview of this emerging effort, dubbed “new industrialization.”

Beijing has made leading-edge, highly-efficient manufacturing capabilities a top policy priority. In this analysis, @triviumchina experts @kendraschaefer and @coryjcombs provide an in-depth overview of this emerging effort, dubbed “new industrialization.”

Cool paper alert: @coryjcombs takes a stab at predicting which critical minerals are most at risk of export controls by China, and outlines the framework he developed to make those determinations. Input on the framework very welcome!

I recently published the prediction that China's CO2 emissions could peak early next year, if current rate of clean energy additions is maintained. Many people who have followed China's emissions trajectory for some time pointed out that it seemed once before, in 2015, that

The real reason for the physics degree was top-tier niche meme-age. I just didn't know it yet.

A pleasure and privilege to be part of this series. @LHongqiao is doing great work to bridge analytical silos; can't wait to read everyone's contributions.

Officially released! My new book "Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions" is about the geoeconomics of China's sovereign funds and FX reserves management. A 6-part thread of key arguments: https://t.co/hZ8JtZHoCv

🇨🇳 Coal plants rush In the past seven months, Guangdong province has fast-tracked approval of 20.48 GW Coal-fired power plants (22 units), data from Shizhimedia news. The last time Guangdong approved a coal plant was in October 2019

Looking forward to the discussion tomorrow!