Flagging this conversation around how Taiwan + Asian economies are meeting energy needs amidst efforts to develop AI capacity. This event was in partnership with @caprifdn and featured @syaru, @garydirks, @R_D, Tarcy Sih-Ting Jhou, and @samanthaenergy.

TODAY: At 9am EST, tune in to our event with @caprifdn on the energy implications of the AI boom for Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific region. Featuring @ryanl_hass, @syaru, Gary Dirks, @R_D, @samanthaenergy, & Tarcy Sih-Ting Jhou. Stream it live ⬇️

Pax Americana is over — what comes next for Southeast Asia? Such aggression, or the threat of it, would force leaders around the world to devote more resources to national defence. It also could lead to an era of nuclear proliferation... @ryanl_hass https://t.co/oa4yAucJRF

Thank you Foreign Minister Cho for welcoming our ⁦@NATLCOMMITTEE⁩ delegation with such warm hospitality and sharp insights. | Yonhap News Agency

Useful corrective to arguments that Taiwan’s semiconductor sector is being hollowed out. “It is clear from the flow of capital that tech titans (like Nvidia, Google, AMD, and others) see Taiwan as a safe, efficient and irreplaceable center of the global semiconductor industry.”

What to make of Trump's 2025 National Security Strategy? My colleagues and I weigh in: https://t.co/NgUZQdhlXZ @BrookingsInst @BrookingsFP #NSS2025

Early in 2025, @ryanl_hass and I quantified the degree of undervaluation in China's RMB in this @BrookingsFP study. It's undervalued at least 20%, even allowing for recent US tariffs. China's massive industrial policy push into EVs is making this worse... https://t.co/WOtEl3y9Xx

China and the US continue to dominate cutting-edge research in AI

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9/ Bottom line - This will be a space to watch between now and Trump's trip to China in April. It remains unclear whether Beijing will prioritize and push for Trump to alter US declaratory policy. My sense is that this is still an open question in Beijing (and Washington). END.

8/ Additionally, even if Trump changes this aspect of US declaratory policy, it wouldn’t have significant impact on the ground. It would create political reverberations inside Taiwan insofar as it would be uncomfortable for Taiwan's current ruling party, but not much beyond that.

7/ Lastly, there are still folks in Beijing loathe to erode China's longstanding principle that Taiwan is a "non-negotiable issue." If Beijing introduces a request for a language shift as part of negotiations of outcomes for Trump's visit, that would be a departure for PRC.

6/ Beijing also must plan for second-order effects. If Trump takes a more China-friendly posture on Taiwan while visiting Beijing, Congress would react by showing stronger support for Taiwan. Taiwan also would become a larger issue in run-up to US elections in 2026 and 2028.

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5/ There are a handful of reasons why Beijing might not prize this outcome as much as many in Washington seem to believe. First, PRC officials recognize that Trump changes his mind often and that there would be little to ensure Trump wouldn't reverse his rhetoric after trip.

4/ It is far from certain Beijing will push for Trump to shift US declaratory policy during his April visit to China, or that Trump will accede to such a request. Having just spent nearly a week in China, I didn't detect unified thinking in Beijing on this potential ask.

3/ Historically, US policy has insisted on non-violent, non-coerced outcome to cross-Strait disputes while leaving it to leaders in Taipei and Beijing to determine formula. If US moves to opposing TW independence, it would begin deciding what outcomes it would/wouldn't accept.

2/ Instead, the US traditionally has maintained a posture of opposing unilateral changes to status quo and supporting any peaceful resolution of cross-Strait disputes that enjoys support of people on both sides of Strait. (At times, the US has said "...support of Taiwan people.")

1/ I'm glad Bill (@niubi) is exploring this question. It's important and often misunderstood. The US has refrained from opposing Taiwan independence (or unification) out of deference to the principle that the US isn't the arbiter of Taiwan's future political status. (short 🧵).

Thank you for the insightful exchange with the @NATLCOMMITTEE delegation, @chia_lung.

Thank you for the exchange on Taiwan’s domestic and international situation and US-Taiwan relations with @NATLCOMMITTEE colleagues, @ChingteLai

Big congratulations @EvanFeigenbaum, @damienics, and @CarnegieEndow on such an inspired choice for this role. We’ll all be beneficiaries of this next step for Carnegie China.