andrew polk
@andrewpolk81
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Co-founder @triviumchina. China economist in DC, after 10 years in Beijing. Erstwhile Texan. Check out my work here: https://t.co/bQR2IvJ3HP
Beijing
Joined September 2011
Excellent podcast here from @KaiserKuo interviewing @jonczin about his recent piece in Foreign Affairs ( https://t.co/xQQt83rIe2). Both the pod and the piece are must-listen/must-read.
foreignaffairs.com
Xi Jinping confronts the downsides of success.
This week on the @SinicaPodcast, the analyst Jonathan Czin (@jonczin) on "The View from Behind Xi Jinping's Desk," in which he takes on a lot of conventional wisdom about Xi Jinping. He applies his framework to the REE export restrictions and PLA/CMC purge, too. Linke below.
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@SinicaPodcast @triviumchina @coryjcombs @andrewpolk81 Here's the link to the pod. @coryjcombs is truly one of the smartest people out there when it comes to critical minerals & China, so if you're following this story you're NOT going to want to miss this one.
sinicapodcast.com
Policymakers in Beijing wasted no time getting back into the swing of things after the week-long October holiday.
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On the @SinicaPodcast page — check out the latest @triviumchina podcast featuring @coryjcombs in convo with @andrewpolk81: Back on the Escalatory Spiral. A deep dive into China's motivations for the REE export restrictions. Link below!
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Yep. This one’s a banger.
Do you want MORE takes on China's economy? Well, do I have the podcast for you! I went on the @triviumchina podcast with @andrewpolk81 and @DinnyMcMahon. Fun. https://t.co/zMSBnRGf6H
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Do you want MORE takes on China's economy? Well, do I have the podcast for you! I went on the @triviumchina podcast with @andrewpolk81 and @DinnyMcMahon. Fun. https://t.co/zMSBnRGf6H
open.spotify.com
The Trivium China Podcast · Episode
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Trivium China Podcast | China's AI+ Initiative: Why the AI Race is Not the Manhattan Project -- @andrewpolk81
@SinicaPodcast @triviumchina
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This week on the Trivium China Podcast, @triviumchina co-founder @andrewpolk81 is joined by @kendraschaefer and @coryjcombs to explain China's AI+ initiative. Fascinating stuff!! Link below.
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Fantastic sense-making on China's stock market and its current ongoing rally: Why is Beijing taking equity markets seriously now? @DinnyMcMahon and @andrewpolk81 from @triviumchina's podcast, part of the @SinicaPodcast Network. Listen or read the transcript at the link below!
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The Trivium China Podcast | China’s Surging Stock Market -- @andrewpolk81 @SinicaPodcast
sinicapodcast.com
China’s stock markets have been on a tear over the last few months, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index – which tracks the biggest companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen – up 25% since its low point...
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US-PRC relations are off track. Risks of conflict are rising, while benefits from the relationship for American and Chinese citizens are receding. Ideological arguments don't carry answers. Evidence-based, interest-driven thinking is needed. https://t.co/cKuSIlMmmx
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My condolences to the investors who deluded themselves into believing Xi was joking in his work report. https://t.co/TH9RW6PydN
bloomberg.com
China will “unswervingly” adhere to its current Covid controls as the country faces increasingly serious outbreaks, health officials said, damping hopes that Beijing will ease its stringent policies...
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I’m no big @elonmusk fan. But the commentary on this move from people who’ve never run a business is amazing. If implemented, on a very conservative projection, it brings in $1 billion in new annual revenue, a boost of 20%. I’d take that over “considerable economic value” any day
Great example of how weird Musk's plan to charge power users for verification is. AOC has 13.5 million followers. When she writes a tweet like this, it generates millions of impressions, creating considerable economic value for Twitter. And he wants to charge her $8 to do it!
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Last weekend there was a coup. This weekend zero-covid will be dropped at any moment. Thank god there are only two more weekends before the party congress.
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Xi and co not wearing masks at National Day celebration is not a signal of coming Covid policy relaxation. Here’s Xi in Liaoning six weeks ago. Covid control policy has only tightened since then.
Senior leaders, including President Xi, did not wear masks during today’s National Day celebration events. Onshore investors broadly perceive this as another important signal for a potential recalibration of zero covid next year.
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Agree and disagree with Bill here. Agree in the sense that, of course, XJP policies and especially "zero COVID" right now are the dominant factors in cutting off people-to-people exchange, especially in the (academic) world I know best. A few points of disagreement below... /1
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Me, writing in @ChinaFile in Aug 2020 >> The @FT just published today (Not a dig. Just sayin I’ve been howling in the wind about this problem for a while now.)
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Any way you slice it, to us it all means that China’s zero-COVID policy will be in place well into 2023. And that means all attendant disruptions to life, business, travel, economic growth, etc – will stick around for a while as well. 15/15
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Key takeaway: Beijing will have a slightly higher tolerance for COVID-related social unrest after the party congress – but that doesn’t mean officials will significantly adjust the current calculus regarding the tradeoffs between economic growth and COVID-related lockdowns. 14/15
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And again: Once that decision is made, it will take months just to message that it is coming – let alone to gradually put the new policies into place. 13/15
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Instead, officials will need to see a combination of extremely low rates of infection, subdued hospitalization and death rates, increased rates of inoculation, widely available therapeutics, and (ideally) increasingly weaker variants before changing course. 12/15
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