New paper with @mw_econ on Fiscal Stagnation. Key insights: 1) High public debt may push the economy into fiscal stagnation, i.e. a persistent state of low growth and high fiscal distortions. 2) Pro-growth policies are crucial to exit stagnation, but they require credibility.

RT @atanaspekanov: @LucaFornaro3 with great presentation on another heterogeneity - in debt positions. Diverging debt positions can lead to….

RT @econromesh: Exiting fiscal stagnation requires large policy interventions that reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio, such as credible p….

Insightful takeaways from the ECB forum in Sintra.

RT @lugaricano: Excellent presentation by @LucaFornaro3 . High debt traps countries in a fiscal stagnation loop: low growth raises debt ra….

Here you can find the full slides while here is the recording of the panel which features great contributions by @Isabel_Schnabel, @agnesbq1, @pietphc and @RefetGurkaynak.

Deeply honored to have participated in a panel at the @ecb Forum in Sintra. My remarks focused on the risk that high legacy debt may push part of the euro area into fiscal stagnation, and how a pro-growth approach to fiscal policy can mitigate this risk.

RT @BachmannRudi: Enjoyed very much this podcast with @Macro_Musings and @LucaFornaro3 about endogenous growth and aggregate demand policie….

RT @DavidBeckworth: What do powerlifting and economic hysteresis have in common? My latest newsletter explores this connection, building on….

RT @voxeu: Fiscal stagnation.Luca Fornaro @LucaFornaro3 @CREIResearch @UPFBarcelona @bse_barcelona, Martin Wolf @mw_econ @HSGStGallen .http….

RT @diegoebm: Luca on why weak aggregate demand today can hold back growth tomorrow. Great episode! 👇.

RT @NicolasGoetzman: "Draghi delivered a speech back in December. (. ) where he argues that low productivity growth is a big issue for the….

This quote from @DavidBeckworth is perfect to motivate a new wave of research on the macroeconomics of the medium run.

RT @cmatthes_econ: Highly recommended podcast episode!.

Thanks a lot to @DavidBeckworth for the invitation, it was a pleasure to participate in the @Macro_Musings podcast!.

RT @ilzetzki: @LucaFornaro3 @IrvingSwisher And see evidence that goes beyond correlations here:.

The whole blog, which draws implications for monetary policy, is worth reading

Cool graph by @IrvingSwisher, showing that productivity grows faster when employment, and aggregate demand, are high. Just like what Keynesian growth models predict

Glad to see our former students publishing great research!.

Broad-based tariffs are not the solution, because they act on gross, not net, trade, and create all kind of distortions. As we suggest here policies that sustain investment in tradable sector may be the appropriate response to large capital inflows.

For instance, during the global saving glut of the early 2000s, investment in the US was much weaker than what standard macro models, such as the one in the excellent paper by @jbsteinberg, would predict. This is an issue that we should think about.