1/ A quick word from me — not a promo, but a personal note. If you’ve been listening to Sinica or reading the newsletter and found it valuable, I’d be grateful if you’d consider becoming a paid subscriber. Here’s why 👇

Somehow missed this last month but it’s very good! Can either China or the U.S. “win” strategic competition?

Read the story here.

The SCMP reporting on a My Formosa poll showing a major drop in willingness to fight unification, majority favoring resuming government-to-government talks and more people-to-people exchange. Link follows.

Excellent interview. I really enjoyed talking to Tom for the @SinicaPodcast about Granta’s Chinese literature issue. Smart, engaging, super charismatic.

Aviation touches roughly 11% of U.S. GDP in some format, but with today’s air traffic control limitations, it’s also a cap on growth. AI can change that, not by replacing pilots or controllers, but by empowering them with smarter tools that open the skies to many more aircraft.

To be clear, that is not the only reason I opposed those restrictions. I also relieved that the primary trust of US competition should be to try and run faster, not try to trip the other guy. And I believed that trying to deprive China of inputs was fundamentally immoral.

It’s becoming clearer by the day that those of us who, from the beginning, opposed US export restrictions against China on the grounds that it would light a fire to Chinese tech innovation and incentivize autarky, were completely right. See the report from ITIF in the link below.

It’s “hotheaded” to quote Ronald Reagan verbatim but not hotheaded to impose a 10 percent tariff because you’re pissed off about a TV advertisement quoting an icon of American economic conservatism in his own words?

@triviumchina @SinicaPodcast @ChinaGSProject 11/ Xi has pushed all his chips to the center of the table. The question for others isn’t whether to “contain” China. That now seems laughable. It's whether they can match China's commitment to building the industries of the future.

@triviumchina @SinicaPodcast @ChinaGSProject 10/ If Beijing succeeds, the trade frictions of 2025 will look mild. But they think — and I tend to agree — that the West’s tariffs and export bans are no match for a coherent, long-term industrial strategy.

@triviumchina @SinicaPodcast @ChinaGSProject 9/ Globally, the model could draw developing nations into China’s industrial orbit — but obviously it will also intensify competition with advanced economies in sectors Beijing now targets. That's unavoidable.

@triviumchina @SinicaPodcast @ChinaGSProject 8/ It’s still a very supply-side vision: nurture industrial champions first, and demand will follow. A “slow bull market” in equities replaces the property bubble as the new wealth channel. They did a great podcast on this a few weeks back:

@triviumchina @SinicaPodcast @ChinaGSProject 7/ The logic: stronger firms → higher wages → rising wealth and tax revenues → greater social security → confident consumers. In this model, consumption is the outcome, not the engine. An end, not the means.

@triviumchina @SinicaPodcast @ChinaGSProject 6/ This is not the “rebalancing toward consumption” Western economists (and yeah, many Chinese too) keep calling for. Xi’s focus is raising productivity — cultivating what he calls New Quality Productive Forces — through innovation-led, high-efficiency manufacturing.

@triviumchina @SinicaPodcast @ChinaGSProject 5/ Tech self-reliance remains crucial — but it’s now a means, not the end. (Other things are ends, not means — see below). Industrial strength is the foundation on which Xi wants to build China’s economic resilience and global influence.

@triviumchina @SinicaPodcast @ChinaGSProject 4/ But they dig into what that means. The Party’s top priority: “building a modern industrial system.” That means doubling down on emerging high-tech sectors and upgrading traditional industries with advanced tech. Again, so far, obs.

@triviumchina @SinicaPodcast @ChinaGSProject 3/ So the Trivium theory on the Xi Jinping vision for the Chinese economy: With the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) taking shape, China is shifting from property- and debt-driven growth to a model powered by world-class manufacturing and advanced technology. Duh.

@triviumchina @SinicaPodcast 2/ Check it out here. It's free each week — good reason to become a subscriber, as if their podcast, my podcast, and the @ChinaGSProject podcast plus the many essays and columns weren't enough!

1/ I publish the weekly @triviumchina round-up via the @SinicaPodcast newsletter, usually on Saturdays. This week you'll really see why I value it. In recent months, Trivium has articulated their excellent take on Xi Jinping's vision for the Chinese economy. Thread follows. 🧵

You absolutely don't want to miss this episode of the Trivium China Podcast from @andrewpolk81 and the people at @triviumchina. Killer episode. Sean Stein of USCBA is amazing.

Serious banger of a podcast. The first half's great — looking at Q3 macroeconomic data from China — but the second half is off the hook great, with USCBC's Sean Stein. Best perspective on fentanyl and on the Sep 29 BIS Affiliate Rule BIS that prompted REE export bans. Link below