🇪🇺&🇭🇷Amb, ex EU Spec Envoy Connectivity,
@gmfus
geostrategy, EU foreign policy, enlargement. Global strategic infra. Temp Bruxelles but South European soul
The Republic of Dubrovnik abolished slavery on 27 January 1416, 417 yrs before UK and 449 yrs before US...when we talk about SouthEast Europe, just saying...
Maybe start with Europe first? Recognition of
#Kosovo
by all 27
#EU
Member States would be a major strategic gain for the consolidation of the European security space.
If
#Kosova
is given a level playing field it will soon become one of the front runners
#EUenlargement
reform process. Young, dynamic, resourceful, in state building mode, outperforming WB on media freedom, anti corruption, democracy. And fully loyal to EU foreign policy values.
On this day 32 yrs ago, my home city of
#Dubrovnik
#UNESCO
Heritage, sustained devastating shelling by Serbian and Montenegrin military (still called Yugoslav). Civilised world failed to stop the evil already than, it was stopped only 8 yrs after in
#Kosovo
. World never learns.
I will keep repeating:
@vonderleyen
is one of the most dedicated and true supporters of
#Ukraine
fight for freedom and democracy. Steadfast, focused and clear. History will remember.
Dear
@ZelenskyyUA
, our hearts are with your soldiers on the frontline.
Keeping faith in an EU future will give them strength.
The Commission is taking the accession process forward.
And securing the means to recover, rebuild and reform via the Ukraine Facility.
“Dear EU, who cares. Let him go.”
#Serbia
needs
#EU
, not the other way around. Do not assist and support instigators of all troubles in the
#WesternBalkans
. Billions of EU tax payers money wasted on appeasing regime in Serbia can be much better used, starting with
#EUdefence
Dear EU,
Who cares. Let him go.
@avucic
needs you more than you need him. This is just his his latest blackmail. First with 🇷🇺 now with 🇨🇳.
Invest in other countries in the region, impose visas and isolate Vucic and his regime.
"It took too long and it was too late...I feel deeply ashamed" - this is both human decency and political leadership by
#Habeck
in Kyiv. There is a new generation of politicians in Europe. Much needed.
"It took too long and it was too late... I feel deeply ashamed". Robert Habeck erobert die Herzen der Ukrainer mit richtigen Worten. Gar so schlecht wie ihr glaubt denken wir übrigens gar nicht über euch, eure Hilfe wissen wir zu schätzen.
EU was created to secure peace in Europe, not the world, making EU an inherently introspective project, a grand compromise machine. Geopolitical power needs agility, strategic nerve, willingness to make sacrifices, will to win. My take
@IPQuarterly
If “quickly with negotiations” implies giving a large piece of territory of a sovereign democratic European state to a war crimes perpetrating undemocratic bully, this is a disaster. Europe (and Germany) should know better. And I hope we do. In particular on
#HolocaustMemorialDay
80% of Germans say it is more important to end the war quickly with negotiations than for 🇺🇦to win, while only 18% disagree, according to a representative Forsa poll released Thursday.
Crucial feature of 🇩🇪public opinon --and harder to overturn than opinion on weapons systems.
Let us not forget this day
#Kosovo
#Albania
#NorthMacedonia
next time there is a general discussion on fundamental European values... Heart cannot be negotiated and packed in chapters.
Our patience should have expired long ago. This is no time for soft words. Europe must be far more determined and demand that Serbia makes a clear choice: European values or Russian world. There is no in-between.
UK's Foreign Secretary Cameron:
"Russia wants to do more to destabilize the Balkans, wants to do more through its proxies, including Serbia."
"We should show a growing frustration with the attitude of the Serbian government... Our patience should wear rather thin."
In anticipation of
#BerlinSummit
in
#Tirana
🇦🇱 - by long far the most vibrant city in the
#WesternBalkans
. Only three decades after the end of one of the most brutal totalitarian communist regimes in the world, a testimony to resilience & grit of
#Albanians
. Nothing is impossible.
On this day, 32 years ago, Serbian and Yugoslav joint military and paramilitary forces killed 🇵🇾 city of
#Vukovar
. But not for long.
#Croatia
won the war and regained entire territory against all odds, including UN arms embargo. Today
#Croatia
is a core member of
#NATO
and
#EU
.
#Albania
…from GDP of 56 US$ per month in 1990 at the end of one of the worst communist dictatorships to being a NATO member, negotiating EU membership and sending satellites into space in 2023. Incredible🇦🇱
Context: EU will give 2,2 billion euros for the rehabilitation of 230 km of railway in Serbia, 600 million are grants, EU tax payers gift! So that Russian and Chinese companies have better conditions to make even more profits? 🤦♀️ 🤷♀️
“Serbia’s most profitable companies are Russian and Chinese owned” while
#EU
gives billions of grants and soft loans for infrastructure projects that enable these profits. Something is completely off…
It is heartbreaking...again and again and again. We must double our resolve to end this horror, and have
#Ukraine
as a part of Europe free, whole and at peace.
the whole pain of ukraine in this single video.
a holocaust survivor who rebuilt her own city just to see it flattened in a second holocaust by russians. this is also the last story produced by
@RFERL
’s vira hrynych who was killed by a russian rocket in her own apartment
“Once again the interests of Trump and Putin are aligned, but this time the stakes for both are much higher than they were in 2016. That should worry us all. It should worry us a lot.”
@djrothkopf
Today, Albania and North Macedonia open accession negotiations with the EU.
A historic moment for the people of 🇦🇱🇲🇰.
We have supported you all the way, and we will continue to do so to welcome you to the EU.
Russian President Putin is emboldened right now and believes he's winning the war in Ukraine because the U.S. has "blinked, because we don't seem to have the courage, either politically or morally right now, to stand up and support Ukraine," Russia expert Fiona Hill says.
This is truly heart warming, 🇦🇱 support for 🇺🇦, its freedom and democracy. Albanians know deeply the meaning of both, and have always done the right thing to help those in danger. Being European is more than being in the
#EU
- well done
#Albania
, Europe is proud of you.
Since the first days of the full-scale invasion, Albania has supported Ukraine in our struggle for freedom and territorial integrity.
During the meeting with Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama
@ediramaal
we signed the Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation between Ukraine and
Spain has not recognised Kosovo but will recognise Palestine👀 EU Common and Security Policy is dead, before it ever even had a chance to become anything serious
10 years ago
#Croatia
became a member of the EU. It feels both as if it was just yesterday and a lifetime ago. We worked hard, it was un uphill struggle from a war torn country to a member of NATO, EU, Eurozone, Schengen. Failure was never an option.
If
#Spain
recognises
#Palestine
and does not recognise
#Kosovo
the same day or the day before, it will be a final proof that
#EU
not only does not have a common foreign and security policy, but is hard to imagine it will ever have anything close to common strategic thinking.
🇪🇸🇵🇸 Spain to recognize Palestine on May 21, EU's Borrell announced.
🇪🇸🇽🇰 Spain is one of the five EU countries that still don't recognize Kosovo's independence.
Malaise of dogmatic groupthink is one of the biggest dangers of EU policy making in general. We need far more people willing to question old paradigms. The world of yesterday is no more.
Scholz has many weaknesses. His biggest flaw, however, is that he seems to think he knows better than everyone else. Journalists from Der Spiegel recently described him as a know-it-all. A short 🧵/1
My take on why and how EU should step up its game
@ecfr
#connectivity
Reconnected: How the EU can assert its sovereignty after the pandemic | European Council on Foreign Relations
one of the themes in our latest newsbriefing is a comparison between Germany's reliance on China with the subprime crisis. It is insane for large industrial companies to rely on China for 40% of their sales in the current geopolitical climate.
Meanwhile in 🇷🇸... List of documents signed w 🇨🇳... including MoU on cooperation in the development of human resources of Min. for European Integration🤷♂️
Time magazine with two
#Kosovo
women on the cover 25 years ago and today is also a metaphor for a small nation with resilience and grit not so easy to find anymore.
The capture of the photo and its publication in Time magazine during the Kosovo War (1999), featuring a Kosovar 🇽🇰 woman with a white scarf on her head fleeing from the war zone while holding a baby in her arms, and 25 years later the publication in Time magazine of another
Europe comes right next - EU was created as a peace project, not as a security actor. And it needs to become one very fast. If that is possible at all.
Gaza, Israel, Hamas, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, China, terrorism, climate change, disrupteive technologies, democratic backsliding, protectionism, and the list goes on - it's an increasingly dangerous world and Canada is not ready to deal with it.
#Serbia
is zero factor in any unity of the West. It has nothing to do with the unity of NATO and EU. Although it is an EU candidate country on paper and in funding. That’s about it. Everything else is pro Russia and pro China anyways 🤷♀️
“France, Serbia, Hungary…For strategic and economic reasons, China badly wants to disrupt the unity of both Nato and the EU. Each of the three countries that Xi is visiting is seen as a potential lever to prise open the cracks in the west.”
🇷🇸🇹🇼 Serbian President Vucic for Chinese media:
"Taiwan is China. Full stop. President Xi will take care of Taiwan in a very proper way in the future, in the way he wants"
Next Commission should consolidate&simplify Global Gateway, scale up financing, and appoint senior Commissioner tasked with repositioning Europe in the network of global value chains - my piece
@Euroactive
#connectivity
is both about best quality infrastructure & value models that shape our world and
#EU
gears up to invest in high impact, transformative, sustainable, collaborative and inclusive projects. It is all in the document below:
#Kosovo
is sending military support packages to
#Ukraine
- even if Ukraine has still not formally recognise Kosovo.
#EU
and
#US
should know well who are true allies in the Western Balkans and that values are not for sale.
“
#Kosovo
has decided to provide two support packages for
#Ukraine
. The first package will be sent this week, and consists of tactical trucks, tactical vehicles & military armored vehicles. And the second package, which consists of 120, 81 and 60-millimeter mortar shells, will
This is all so sad, and a terrible failure of
#EU
#WesternBalkans
policy - to the benefit of frozen conflict,
#Russia
and all those who do not wish Europe well.
#Kosovo
is resilient, they’ve seen worse and will overcome. But
#EU
credibility has been severely damaged yet again.
Berlin, Paris & Rome following the line of Donald Trump in the Balkans. The Social Democrats in the 🇩🇪 chancellery, ignoring the majority of their own party in the Bundestag on the question of Kosovos membership in the Council of Europe, receive a well deserved compliment.
Alarmed by the epidemiological situation in India. We are ready to support.
The EU is pooling resources to respond rapidly to India’s request for assistance via the EU Civil Protection Mechanism.
We stand in full solidarity with the Indian people!
The beach where I learned to swim as a toddler - my father carrying me on his shoulders down and up hundreds of stairs…Profound wild beauty
#Pasjaca
#Konavle
#Dubrovnik
Biden administration nominates Amb. Donald Lu to be Assistant Secretary of State for South & Central Asian Affairs. He is currently amb. to the Kyrgyz Republic, and has served all around S & C Asia, including as DCM in India (that's a file pic of him in 2012 in Delhi)
"So we have to be emotional, because it is also an expression of our values—emotion in the face of the deliberate killing of children is still part of what we are fighting for. It is probably even ultimately the basis of the legitimacy of the free world."
In my 50th essay on my strategy blog, I explain why the phrase "Don't get emotional!" in the face of Putin's massive
#warcrimes
in
#Ukraine
—after Chechnya, Georgia, Syria—is morally undignified, but also strategically dumb.
Has
#foreignpolicy
consequences.
@Andric1961
I don’t think it is right to describe Kosovo as a “country with the Muslim majority” - because this is not how citizens of Kosovo would define their country. Albanians do not self-identify through religion, that is a well known fact. Unlike the rest of the Balkan nations.
Tusk finally saying what needs to be said. Let's hope they DO what's said.
'We will demand the full mobilisation of the West to help Ukraine. I can't listen any more to politicians who talk about being tired of the situation in Ukraine️. An attack on Ukraine is an attack on us
Do not withdraw the EU candidate status, that is exactly what Russia wants.
#EU
candidate status belongs to the people of
#Georgia
🇬🇪 Sanction individuals and political forces who work against it. And stop any money they can use and abuse.
We need concrete consequences!
- withdrawal of the EU-candidate status
- stop the funds for 🇬🇪 projects
- sanction Bidzina Ivanishvilli
- travel bans for MPs who vote in favour of the
#RussianLaw
One of the most important sets of political messages on EU global positioning by any European leader in long last. But also from a professional point of view an impeccably written speech.
@epc_eu
&
@merics_eu
excellent context. Good day for the EU foreign and security policy.
Our relationship with China is one of the most intricate and important.
How we manage it will be a determining factor for our future economic prosperity and national security ↓
It is interesting to see how small but fierce most progressive & pro EU forces in
#Serbia
understand that their future will be to a very large extend defined not by the
#EU
, but by
#Ukraine
, and its victory.
Život u Srbiji je mnogo lepši kad prihvatite realnost da ovde ne može biti bolje ako mi sami to pokušavamo. Važnije je pratiti vesti u Ukrajini ako vas interesuje futur Srbije nego proteste na kojima su Tadić i Mlađa Đorđević, a u pričuvi vrebaju Savoe i Jeremaje.
Students chanting
#NoToRussianLaw
marched through the central streets in Batumi, drawing citizens to join them, before finally gathering at the central
#EuropeSquare
.
#Georgia
“Serbia’s most profitable companies are Russian and Chinese owned” while
#EU
gives billions of grants and soft loans for infrastructure projects that enable these profits. Something is completely off…
“A weaker and divided Europe is enhancing the prospects for a bipolar world”…one of the best available analysis of (the lack of) EU global projection comes from Delhi, by
@MohanCRaja
“Many countries are trying to expand their area of influence by creating trade corridors and Turkey backs the Iraq Development Road Project, which aims to connect the Gulf to Turkey and Europe through a railway and highway via ports in the UAE, Qatar and Iraq.”
#Connectivity
Turkey opposes the newly proposed India-Gulf Region-Europe economic corridor and suggests an alternative connectivity with Europe, Qatar, UAE and Iraq. Turkey is also part of China‘s BRI middle corridor.
#geoeconomics
#Velsig
#Spain
🇪🇸 has not recognised
#Kosovo
🇽🇰 yet but is planning to recognise the State of Palestine. European Common Foreign and Security Policy is not even an afterthought… How can Europe be a strategic foreign policy actor when it is not capable of consolidating mere basics?
"In our city spring came from the sky, not from the soil, which was ruled by stone that recognizes no seasonal change." Only a genius like
#Kadare
can in one sentence describe the overwhelming beauty & esoteric melancholy of European south...
Sari is 100% right - Chinese elites do not actually understand Europe and European Union and believe whatever different merchants from Europe tell them. But personal greed and structural political reality are two very different things. Europeans are great at confusing people🤷♀️
⤵️ In other words, this narrative from Beijing is telling 30 European nations that they are nothing but US vassals while “Russia is waging a war of aggression on their borders”.
Shows how badly 🇨🇳 actually understands the systemic structure of Europe. Xi’s visit to Serbia and
#Dubrovnik
on glorious sunny day. Non Bene Prototo Libertas Venditur Auro - Freedom is not sold for all gold of the world - resonates today with same power as it did during centuries of this tiny City Republic on the shores of Adriatic Sea. Nothing is more important than
#Freedom
Full two days of concrete and foresight discussions on how to do better & more in one of the key global trilateral 🇪🇺-🇮🇳-🇺🇸It was a pleasure to listen&learn, thanks for great organisation
@GarimaMo
@BonnieGlaser
@d_jaishankar
India Trilateral Forum in New Delhi discussed challenges and progress in various areas:
- What’s going on in the Quad
- 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇮🇳 perspectives on Taiwan
- 🇪🇺-🇨🇳 ties
- 🇺🇸-🇪🇺 and 🇪🇺-🇮🇳 TTCs
- Maritime security, economics, connectivity, emerging technology cooperation
"As it rises to become a major geopolitical actor in Asia and the world, Japan has become the unlikely actor persuading the West to rethink its strategic assumptions." Fantastic piece by
@MohanCRaja
on 🇯🇵 as the primary geostrategic thinker of today's world. Must read!
To say dynamics of US/China trade hasn’t changed is simply not true. According to owners of manufacturing in China 1. they do reroute, but it can only be partially done. In addition to additional shipping/insurance costs, finished products are taxed differently from components in
In 25 years of NATO membership (for CZ, PL & HU) and 20 years of NATO & EU membership for others in the region there has been ONE CEE holder of those 4 top jobs - NATO SecGen, EU Commission President, EU HRVP For & Sec Policy, EU Council President (Tusk 2014-19) This must change!
Many of you have asked why I’m pushing for
@GLandsbergis
as EU HRVP &
@kajakallas
as NATO SecGen
TLDR: they’re the best people for the jobs - and to ensure NATO & the EU hold together & have a bright future we need our best in these positions.
I came back from
#MSC2024
more
Charles Lindbergh speaking in 1940:
“I’ve been forced to the conclusion that we can’t win this war for England regardless of how much assistance we send”
And then America and England won the war.
In 1991
#Serbia
army for months tried to kill the city of
#Vukovar
#Croatia
. In 2022 Vukovar and Croatia are part of
#EU
&
#NATO
family of democratic nations. Stay strong
#Ukraine
- victory will be yours.
Pro Russian forces fueling a crisis in the
#WesternBalkans
so that
#EU
&
#NATO
have an additional (smaller) front to worry about when all our focus should be on how to help
#Ukraine
go through the winter and win the war? When will we learn? Needs to stop NOW
There was shooting last night again, according to Kosovo police. Belgrade using propaganda and directly influencing return of parallel structures in north. A recipe tested since 1990 with balvan revolutions in the Croatian roads. Quite depressing and distressing.
@MohanCRaja
must read, and wise as always! “Russia and China hope that the divisions within the West will help them transform the global order. But the Indian strategic community should not hold its breath. The many faultlines within the West are real, but they are by not fatal.”
If we invest in transport, in energy and digital networks, we always have to make sure that it serves the planet and the people.
In this spirit, 🇪🇺 will soon be launching the
#GlobalGateway
Europe initiative: stay tuned!
Yes 💯 - not even too much courage, to be fair. Moral clarity first and foremost, and geostrategic common sense.
#Ukraine
has been the key inflection point for a while now.
Pin this thread - fantastic work by
@kielinstitute
& all you need to know when whoever tells you that “we” are “giving too much” to support
#Ukraine
- because in reality, we are still giving too little.
📢Is Western aid to Ukraine large or small? Our new Ukraine Tracker release takes a "big picture view" over 100 years. Main insight: It's comparatively small. US expenses in previous wars were far higher &the EU mobilized 10x more for other crises (Euro, Covid19, energy crisis)🧵
For China and Russia, this is an opportunity to install their security, economic and digital infrastructure in the very close proximity of the EU, and project power for free. They do not even have to try hard or invest much - I told
@fbermingham
📣 We are delighted to announce that
@RVlahutin
will be joining GMF as Visiting Distinguished Fellow for Geostrategy. She will be focusing on strategic infrastructure and wider EU geostrategic issues.
🇪🇺 Top 10 countries by amount of EU aid received (aid per capita)
🇵🇸 West Bank and Gaza
🇷🇸 Serbia
🇹🇳 Tunisia
🇸🇾 Syria
🇦🇫 Afghanistan
🇲🇦 Morocco
🇺🇦 Ukraine
🇹🇷 Turkey
🇮🇶 Iraq
🇲🇿 Mozambique
“While US and European officials have been promoting African partnerships and compiling lists of critical minerals, Chinese investors have been not only buying up African mines to produce minerals but building refineries at home to process the output.
German exports of motor vehicles and parts (blue) to Kyrgyzstan are up 5500% since Russia invaded Ukraine. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that all this stuff is heading to Russia.
German exports of motor vehicles and parts (blue) to Kyrgyzstan are up 5500% since Russia invaded Ukraine. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that all this stuff is heading to Russia. It's not like Kyrgyzstan is suddenly in a massive boom. Germany has to stop this...
#connectivity
is both about best quality infrastructure & value models that shape our world and
#EU
gears up to invest in high impact, transformative, sustainable, collaborative and inclusive projects. It is all in the document below:
“Something has to give if the EU’s trade agenda is not to unravel due to the extra-territorial application of its climate ambitions” Fantastic piece by
@JohnAClarkeEU
on EU-India FTA and how to think strategically in an era of
#EconomicSecurity
30 yrs ago, Albanian students stood up for freedom & dignity, against the last Communist dictatorship in Europe: Duam te jetojme si Evropa (We want to live like Europe)! Courage & perseverance still needed today, to honor the idea of Europe whole, free and at peace
#EUenlargement
Today marks the 30th anniversary of the student movement that led to the fall of communism in Albania. 8 December 1990 was the day that divided the past from the future!
#NationalYouthDay
🇦🇱
"Russia was one of the cases where the old regime retained such a preponderance of power that democratic transition never took place. Reforms were cosmetic. Old Soviet elites and their methods of organizing power relations remained in charge. "
Hooray, my new article is out in the new issue of
@JoDemocracy
! Citing my own (and other scholars') work, I argue that we need to reconsider whether Russia indeed transitioned to democracy in 1990s keeping in mind the composition of the elites - Soviet nomenklatura remained in
In the loving memory of Ambassador
#LidijaTopi
ćBowen the Foundation in her honour will support female students from
#BiH
🇧🇦 who want to pursue Masters program
@collegeofeurope
and continue Lidija’s work for European BiH with dedication, integrity and strength.
@mfa_bih
📃We are delighted to announce the signature of new scholarship agreement with the Lidija Topić Bouwen Foundation.
👩🎓It aims to support a woman from Bosnia and Herzegovina through a full scholarship to study at the College of Europe.
100% right! In all the top jobs in the EEAS , 19 positions from Managing Director up - there is NO ONE from “new” Europe. This deprives all Europeans of the critical knowledge and experience. Ukraine is a testimony. We have to do better. Thank you
@kajakallas
@politico
Two reasons why West made wrong predictions at the outset of Russian attack on Ukraine: lack of understanding & expertise on both Russia and Ukraine, and fear. “You must never ever have fear. If you have fear, you’ve lost.” Excellent interview of
@OleksiyDanilov
by
@MacaesBruno
My brand new interview with secretary of
@NSDC_ua
, national security advisor
@OleksiyDanilov
is full of fascinating passages. Take a look while it is outside the paywall. Is a new large Russian offensive coming?
My byline for
@SCMPNews
on President Xi visit to
#Serbia
: “Serbia clearly perceives the EU as a cash machine while at the same time [it] wants to build ‘relations above the strategic partnership level’ with China and ‘brotherhood’ with Russia,”