My new op-ed: the end of the luxury of a cost-free foreign policy for Canada
"Canada has benefitted from an incredible luxury for the past three decades: we have been able to make mistakes in major foreign and national security policy decisions...
Folks, the Houthis are not "defending Gaza" or trying to "stop a genocide". They are using the Gaza war as a pretext to consolidate their (brutal, autocratic) rule inside Yemen and to position themselves as a regional power.
2 things can be true at the same time, folks:
-the Palestinian people have been deprived of dignity for decades and Israel's brutal occupation is strategically and morally reprehensible
-Hamas is an Iran-backed terrorist group and its violence does not advance the cause of peace
My bingo card of things I did not have on my bingo card is overflowing, but I can now add "NYT spreading misinformation on Canada that is amplified by Fox, and then by the far right in Canada"
India is playing a risky game. It wants to signal its discontent to Canada and send a broader message to the West and the rest of the world (we are a rising power etc.), but too much aggressive foreign policy, especially given its continuing weaknesses, exposes it to blowback.
Reuters: “India has told Canada that it must repatriate 41 diplomats by Oct. 10.” Canada has more than twice as many diplomats in India as India has in Canada. After Trudeau’s evidence-free allegations, India wants parity in diplomatic staff strength.
Canada needs to seriously plan for the possibility that the US will not be a liberal democracy anymore. This is not fear-mongering, but a real prospect. A Trump victory in November would be a generational game changer for our security, stability, and prosperity.
Views you can hold as valid all at once:
-Hamas is a terrorist group & an obstacle to peace
-Israel's war on Gaza is a strategic & moral disaster
-The Houthis are brutal & their disruption of Red Sea shipping is a big problem
-US strikes are risky & unlikely to solve this problem
Given how weird, even by Trumpian standards, today's White House statement on Saudi Arabia is, here is a line by line comment; pardon the long-ish thread:
1. "Iran is responsible for the bloody proxy war in Yemen": no, by no objective measure is that true. The war was local..
Why did a Liberal MP organize this event? The MeK is a corrupt cult with zero legitimacy inside Iran. As protests continue in Iran, if Canadian Parliamentarians want to support democracy in Iran, which they should, they need to stay away from the MeK.
Iranian people’s nationwide uprising for a democratic republic & against a misogynistic regime
Senators & MPs attended a conference at the Canadian Parliament chaired by
@JudySgroMP
, a senior Member of Parliament & former Minister of Immigration
#IranRevoIution
#NCRIAlternative
Calling Canada an authoritarian state under Trudeau is as dumb as it was under Harper. It is also completely ignorant of what an actual authoritarian state is.
“
@Ravarora1
More than 15 years after arriving in Canada…I must now consider the possibility my civil rights might have been more secure back in India. Once a vibrant, liberal democracy, Canada is now becoming an authoritarian state.” Do read.
Iran under the Shah was not a "flawed monarchy with democratic principles". It was a repressive and kleptocratic absolute monarchy that was widely despised by Iranians. It collapsed and was replaced by a brutal theocratic regime; this does not make revisionism accurate in any way
1/ With Iran in the news, I'm going to do a brief educational thread on their history since the 1979 "Revolution" where they moved from a flawed monarchy with democratic principles to a theocracy under Ayatollah Khomeini.
Here's a picture of life in Iran before the revolution.
By rejoining the Paris Climate Agreement, President Biden indicates he’s more interested in the views of the citizens of Paris than in the jobs of the citizens of Pittsburgh. This agreement will do little to affect the climate and will harm the livelihoods of Americans.
Canada has no backing at all from the US in its current spat with Saudi. This is new. Not a big deal: the dispute is spectacular, but ultimately not very important. But this should be a source of major anxiety: when a real crisis comes, and we are alone, what do we do?
The fact that China is not even pretending to deny that the 2 Michaels were hostages is a strong signal to the world that it does not care what others think. It is openly signalling that it is a bully. Not responding firmly will only invite further bullying.
The next step is for Canada to work with allies - yes, AUKUS - to get much tougher on the containment of China. China takes Canadian citizens as hostages, spies, steals IP, intimidates its diaspora here, etc. Maybe it would have been nice to get along, but that ship has sailed.
I was in a car accident yesterday. Car crashed me at high speed. I'm banged up but OK. Million thanks to guy who helped me out of the car, police, firemen, ambulance paramedics & staff at Civic hospital. Special thanks to policewoman who described me as "male, mid 30s" (I am 46).
When we say that Canada lacks a mature national security culture, we mean politicians and the government but also others, including the media. This is a brutally bad question. If you want to ask questions on Canada's policy on Ukraine, go ahead. But this is excessively parochial.
Deputy PM
@cafreeland
& Foreign Affairs Min
@melaniejoly
clearly did not like my Q— Why is
@JustinTrudeau
in Europe on the taxpayer dime while there are pressing domestic issues he could be dealing w/ at home…here’s the exchange
#cdnpoli
Not a surprise, but still weird to see how some of the cheerleaders for the protests in Ottawa (and I mean for the hard-line organisers, not the people who just opposed vaccine mandates) are now parroting Russian propaganda on Ukraine.
My hypothesis on tonight:
-Iran knows every inch of Al-Asad and Erbil bases & knew US troops were secure; it purposely avoided them. Its short range missiles are precise enough to do that. Iran is fine with Iraqi casualties (it's happy to fight the US to the last Iraqi) (1/3)
No words to describe how insanely stupid this is - by former Olympic gold medal figure skater
@JamieSale
. It is historically illiterate, shows a perverted reading of Canadian politics, and is a trivialization of the Holocaust - 6 million dead - that is an insult to their memory.
In our research,
@StephanieCarvin
and I found there is literally no past instance of politicization of intelligence in Canada. Our leaders simply don't do that, unlike in other countries.
If Trudeau says this, with appropriate caveats & caution, it must be taken very seriously.
BREAKING: Justin Trudeau: "We have intelligence from multiple sources, including our allies and our own intelligence. The evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile."
"This may well have been unintentional."
-Man verbally assaults and threatens politician and her staffers
-Man partly enraged because of an alleged fertilizer ban
-There is no fertilizer ban
-Some elected politicians tweet about the (non-existent) fertilizer ban
-These politicians bear responsibility for the violence
We are going through the worst pandemic in 100 years, the vaccines work incredibly well, and we would be almost out of this crisis if everybody were vaccinated. Unvaccinated people are getting sick, filling up hospitals and preventing others from getting health care. Grow up.
As Conservatives clearly stated during the election campaign, Justin Trudeau’s vaccine mandate is discriminatory, coercive and must be opposed. We must continue to demand reasonable exemptions and accommodations, like rapid testing, for those unable or unwilling to be vaccinated.
This is the right position. UNRWA plays an absolutely essential role in providing basic services to Palestinians. It needs to be reformed and made stronger, not shut down or weakened.
We need to distinguish between what individuals may have done, and what UNRWA stands for. The organisation's tens of thousands of employees in Gaza, the West Bank and the region are playing a crucial role in distributing aid, saving lives and safeguarding basic needs and rights
To be clear, this man is a white supremacist and extremist with hard anti-government views. Not anti-Liberal, but anti-government, who played a key role in organising these protests that have violated multiple laws. Cut the bullshit on stiffling peaceful or legitimate dissent.
This is significant, and a major escalation by Saudi Arabia if true. There are about 15,000 Saudi students in Canada, the 4th largest contingent of foreign students here. This is a big hit for these students' lives, and for Canadian universities.
9. Saudi Arabia is not an ally; the US does not have an alliance with it. It is a partner.
Conclusion: I could add many other rebuttals. Bottomline, a pile of lies, BS, and nonsense; don't expect this Administration to move to pressure Saudi or to change things.
MBC a un rare talent: c'est du pur racisme, rien de plus et rien de moins, mais il l'articule en utilisant des mots avec beaucoup de syllabes qui, mis ensemble, ne veulent absolument rien dire
«Si les choses se déroulent comme elles se déroulent en ce moment, à la fin du siècle, les peuples historiques européens seront minoritaires dans leur propre pays. Ce n'est pas une peur irrationnelle. Et 'l'Empire européen' tend à inhiber la souveraineté de ces États.»
@mbockcote
An Arab country (Morocco) losing a soccer game against Iran because of an own goal tells you everything you need to know about Middle East politics: Iran plays defense, doesn't do much, wins.
The Canadian ambassador declared Persona Non Grata (PNG) by Saudi Arabia is the same who was expelled from Iran in 2012. Probably the only diplomat in the world to ever be PNGed by both the Supreme Leader and the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques.
There have been 401,000 newcomers to Canada so far in 2021 - or more than 1% of the country's total population. That is brilliant. It's the right thing to do on moral, humanitarian, economic, diplomatic, and strategic grounds.
I don't think that the son of a deposed brutal, corrupt and repressive ruler should have much to say in discussing how to deal with the equally brutal, corrupt, and repressive regime that followed - but he is right, Canada should do more to sanction key regime figures.
Iran's exiled former Crown Prince
@PahlaviReza
says Canada and the world should respond to the protests in Iran by targeting the regime and its associates through "specific measures" like the Magnitsky Act.
4. Saudi "agreed to spend and invest $450 billion" in the US. Man, Trump drinks that kool-aid. There is no evidence this is true. 100Ks of jobs and "tremendous economic development"? Have I ever got a server in a basement in Chappaqua to sell you.
...and entail massive costs. Trump simply does not understand that this gives the US tremendous leverage, not the other way around.
7. "Saudi Arabia says Khashoggi was an enemy of the state": to be clear, the President of the United States endorses a brutal dictatorship's...
6. "If we foolishly cancel these contracts, Russia and China would be the enormous beneficiaries": nonsense again. Saudi is so dependent on US (and western) military kit (and training, spare parts, etc) that shifting to Russian/Chinese procurement would take decades...
What the CAQ government is doing to McGill University - where I did my undergrad - is a disaster. Narrow-minded, petty, counter-productive; the actions of a parochial and small nationalism. Bad for Quebec society in every way.
+1,000 this. I just can't understand why a society - that's you, English Canada - can offer free school but not daycare. 7-20$/day daycare in Québec is a revolution for parents (especially mothers - studies have shown few policies have been as beneficial), and it pays for itself.
"When Qc introduced subsidized daycare, the resulting economic boom delivered a fiscal windfall that more than paid for the added costs."
A little less conversation, a little more policy learning please. The solution to curbing the she-cession is obvious.
During the 2018 Canada-Saudi Arabiadispute, it was clear Saudi hit back hard at Canada not because of what it did (a tweet) but to send a broader message to western states: stop criticizing us. Canada is not the US & not in Europe, so an easy target. Clear parallel with India now
Former Canadian PM Stephen Harper addresses MeK event in Albania, refers to its role in working for change in Iran.
The MeK is a corrupt, thuggish cult with no support in Iran. It is neither viable nor democratic. It is moral failure & strategic lunacy for Harper to endorse it.
5. "$110 billion will be spent" by Saudi on buying US weapons. This has long been debunked. Some of these deals are Obama-era; most have not materialized yet. In practice, the real number is far lower.
I have no doubt that India can't be bullied... but the idea that Canada, or anyone else, is trying to "bully" India is self-induced fantasy (Canada bullying another country - think about that for a second).
MEA has hit hard at Canada by stating it should be worried about its growing reputation as a safe haven for terrorists, for extremists, and for organized crime. Trudeau has bitten more than he can chew. Time for Anglosphere to realise India can’t be bullied.
Vaccine mandates literally save tens of thousands of lives in Canada, and millions in the world. And they would be less necessary if folks like you did not constantly repeat disinformation.
The vaccine mandates have resulted in loss of freedom and livelihoods. But they've been done cleverly so as to stay just within the Charter. The lockdowns also resulted in loss of freedoms ostensibly in the collective good. It's that balance that's at issue.
labeling a dissident (and a mild one at that) an "enemy of the state".
8. "King Salman and MbS deny any knowledge... maybe he did, maybe he didn't": bullshit. Dynamics in Saudi Arabia in the past three years very, very strongly point towards MbS's direct responsibility.
We've become desensitized after almost 4 years, but watching clips of Trump's press conference, it's just unbelievable how the leader of the most powerful country in history is so illiterate, inarticulate, ignorant, dishonest, and basically so full of shit.
What you don't get is how francophones are disadvantaged in the public service. Most work is in English. Francophones are handicapped: they must work in their second language, which they worked hard to learn. You work in your 2nd language, every day, then tell me who is penalized
Very good piece on the limits of bilingualism. Western Canadians have little chance to become fluent in French despite the best of intentions. The trend to require bilingualism in most top govt jobs discriminates against them.
And, just to stay on the gloomy side, even if Biden wins, Canada (and the rest of the world) will have to live with the reality that at least 40% of Americans support, and will no doubt continue to support, his Trumpist agenda. That shit is not going to just disappear.
3. "Saudi Arabia would gladly withdraw from Yemen if the Iranians would agree to do the same": nonsense. Saudi will not withdraw from Yemen, gladly or otherwise. And if it were ready to, this trade would be very strange, since Saudi has a massive investment in Yemen, unlike Iran.
Protests in Ottawa this weekend have gone far beyond what is acceptable. Some protesters legitimately criticized Israeli policies, a right which democracies must protect. But others were openly antisemitic, calling for violence & supporting Hamas & glorifying terrorism.
Trump: no president has ever done what I've done in 3.5 years
No kidding. No president so far has sabotaged US power, credibility and democracy so much and so fast.
After 2 years of work, 70 interviews with serving and retired intelligence and national security practitioners, a SSHRC grant, and 75K words,
@StephanieCarvin
and I just submitted the manuscript for our book on intelligence analysis and policy-making in Canada to a publisher...
This article refers to "Tom Quiggin, a former military intelligence officer who also worked with the RCMP and was considered one the country's top counter-terrorism experts".
No - he left years ago & is widely viewed in the intelligence community as an islamophobe & a buffoon.
Some Canadian commentators repeating the Indian government's talking points on the foreign interference dispute might not be surprising, but is still pretty striking.
No. It is very specifically NOT an intelligence failure.
It's precisely the opposite: the experts - in intelligence, and in public health - got it right, and policy-makers failed to act. The job of intelligence here is to analyse and warn, not to act.
A couple things.
- if you equate Trudeau with Trump, you are blinded by partisanship and are part of the problem. Absolutely fair to be critical of Trudeau, but they are not on the same planet in terms of venality, corruption.
-same if you equate Canada's conservatives with Trump
10 years ago today my grandfather Pierre Juneau, a great Canadian, passed away. As the father of Canadian content regulations, the Juno Awards are named after him. He was later president of CBC/RadioCanada. Canadian culture would be poorer without his work
Before last week, I did not have the Toronto Sun blindly repeating Indian disinformation on my bingo card.
(admittedly, my bingo card has been really taking a beating recently)
..., then Saudi intervened, and subsequently only did Iran increase its low support to the Houthis.
2. "Assad has killed millions of his own citizens": Inacurate. Assad is responsible for far more deaths in Syria than any other actor but hundreds of thousands, not millions.
Canada should start having quiet conversations with its closest allies and partners about scenarios of instability, political violence, contested elections and democratic backsliding in the US. There is not that much we can do, but to the extent we can, we should start planning.
Here is the Chinese embassy in Canada targeting a think-tank after it published an open letter (signed by senior politicians and experts from many countries) criticizing China.
This is the new normal and will be increasingly frequent. But it is unacceptable, and must be opposed.
Illegal outposts are part of an explicit strategy to kill the two state solution. Israel's international partners - US, EU, Canada - need to clearly condemn this and tie future relations with Israel to this stopping.
The wrong translation - on purpose or out of ignorance, whichever - from French to English of the quote of a politician candidly admitting that his work can be tough has got to be the most Canadian political mini-scandal.
"These vacines are saving lives"
In his most direct effort to encourage people to get vaccinated, Governor Ron DeSantis said 95% of the new COVID cases are those who are not vaccinated.
The US and its allies, including Canada, need to clearly condemn this - and openly lay out serious consequences to bilateral relations with Israel if resettlement in Gaza happens. Can't be business as usual or just timid press releases.
12 Israeli ministers (including from Netanyahu's Likud party) participated at a conference today about rebuilding Isrseli settlements in Gaza & encouraging displacement of Palestinians from Gaza. Ministers Ben Gvir, Smotrich and several others from Likud gave supportive speeches
This is a cliche, I know, but it's true. It is stunning to compare the reaction in Canada, where rival politicians who really didn't like each other 1 month ago now behave like the reasonable adults we need to get through this, with the absolute clownshow in Washington.
Thank-you, Deputy Prime Minister
@cafreeland
.
I appreciate all that you are doing to coordinate with the provinces, and the efforts of the Government of Canada.
This crisis reminds us of how Canadians pull together to do big things. Alberta will always be there to do its part.
Seeing some calls for Canada to play the role of "honest broker". Just to be clear, there is no scope for Canada to play that role. We can tweet it and pat ourselves on the back, but that's it. When the time for mediation comes, that role will be played by others.
This is inaccurate, Canadian intelligence - which, as a member of the Five Eyes, had significant access to US intelligence - dissented and concluded that based on the information it had, it could not conclude that Iraq had WMD. It also laughed off allegations of Iraq-AlQaeda ties
@besttrousers
No major intel agency anywhere dissented from the basic view that Iraq was hiding WMD. Weapons inspectors wanted more time to prove a negative, that Iraq *didn't* have them. Duelfer later found none, but intent to preserve the WMD programs for quick restart. /3
Hamas is a genocidal terrorist organisation & an obstacle to peace. It must be defeated. But that's a slogan, not a strategy. In practice, it is an incredibly difficult balance to strike for Israel. But what is happening in Gaza now guarantees the cycle of violence will continue.
Gaza, Israel, Hamas, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, China, terrorism, climate change, disrupteive technologies, democratic backsliding, protectionism, and the list goes on - it's an increasingly dangerous world and Canada is not ready to deal with it.
As of tomorrow, I am on the open market.
A well funded, internationally successful scientist is accepting offers from academia and industry in order to leave the state of Utah, taking my team of neuroscientists if they chose to leave with me.
I will not endanger my team.
Not a surprise, at all. Egypt has very precisely zero intention to welcome Palestinian refugees. Its interest is not in helping the Palestinian cause. To the contrary - it is an active participant in the long term disenfranchisement of Palestinians.
The US needs to do much more than just rhetorical condemnation at this point. Smotrich and Ben Gvir are openly advocating for ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. To just refer to them as "irresponsible" is counter-productive.
The United States rejects the inflammatory and irresponsible statements from Israeli Ministers Smotrich and Ben Gvir. There should be no mass displacement of Palestinians from Gaza.
Former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has always claimed that he had a values-based foreign policy. But to support the MeK - a corrupt and thuggish cult with zero legitimacy inside Iran - is morally bankrupt and strategic lunacy.
Worst part? Harper knows this.
It’s my pleasure to address the NCRI’s Free Iran Summit from Canada today; together with friends and allies from around the world, I continue to stand with the people of Iran against the tyrannical and oppressive regime in Tehran.
#FreeIran2020
#NCRI
The consistent effort by some on the far left to minimize or deny Hamas atrocities on 7 October, including sexual violence, is absolutely repulsive. It's dogmatic narcissism of the worst kind. It's also not helpful to the Palestinian cause.
What we mean when some of us say that the inquiry on foreign interference was right to be broad and look beyond China, to other countries too (India, Russia, Iran, Saudi...):
I don't mind Xi "berating" Trudeau. What is concerning, more broadly, if you combine this with the 2018 dispute with Saudi, is the prospect of dictatorships targeting Canada to send a message to other democracies - since we are not the US, not the EU, we might be an easier prey.
This appears to be a catastrophic intelligence failure by Israel, one that will be studied and criticized for a long time, but it can't be only that. Multiple layers of security failed. The Gaza border wall failed (paragliders zipped in). The technology failed.
If the plan is limited airstrikes on Houthi coastal military sites, it will:
-do minimal damage (Houthi infrastructure is dispersed, after years of countering Saudi airstrikes)
-not deter them (the Houthis are hubristic)
-be counterproductive (boosting their resistance narrative)
The murder of a dissident journalist has to be seen as a new item in the growing list of reckless Saudi actions under MbS: destroying Yemen, blockading Qatar, taking the Lebanese prime minister hostage, sanctioning Canada. Eventually Saudi will have to face the costs of all this.
Pierre Poilievre, new leader of Canada's opposition Conservatives, attends the massive anti-Islamic Republic rally in Toronto today (PM Trudeau did not).
Spoke to thousands in Richmond Hill fighting for a free Iran.
#MahsaAmini
Enough talk, Liberals must act now.
Sign our petition to list the IRGC as a terrorist group & support Iranian people in their fight for freedom against this murderous dictatorship:
Anyone who talks about a "post-American" Middle East should look at this map for one second. Yes, there is limited retrenchment (and it's a good thing), but not more than that.
Big debate on whether Canada's response to COVID was too slow. What is missing from much of the criticism is - ***based on the information that was realistically available in January/February*** should/could governments have done more. NOT based on the info we have today.
Some advisers of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah of Iran, hold a direct responsibility for the failure of the Iranian exiled opposition to organize itself since September 2022 (and of course RP has to be held accountable since he keeps them as advisers).
The main victims of foreign interference in Canada are often Chinese/Iranian/Indian-Canadians (& other diaspora groups). The racist thing is to fail to protect them by not doing enough to counter foreign interference - and *not*, for example, to establish a foreign agent registry
Memo to some on the left: you *can* oppose a brutal, corrupt, incompetent dictatorship like Maduro's in Venezuela (no, he is not a legitimate democratically elected leader) while *also* opposing US-led regime change and military intervention.
@thomasjuneau
And I’m supposing this is being verified against the same intelligence community that missed 9/11 but was certain of WMDs in Iraq right?
When has military intelligence ever been wrong before…
Canada is about to cut its already small defence budget. We have long neglected foreign, defence & national security policy - and have had the luxury of not suffering for it. But as threats accumulate and we continue this neglect, the cost of our collective dilettantism will rise
My new op-ed: the end of the luxury of a cost-free foreign policy for Canada
"Canada has benefitted from an incredible luxury for the past three decades: we have been able to make mistakes in major foreign and national security policy decisions...