Jonathan Eyal
@JEyal_RUSI
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Associate Director, RUSI ( @rusi_org ). Views expressed here are entirely my own.
Joined April 2012
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Last Seen Profiles
I have an equally good idea to stabilise security in Asia, following China's advice to Ukraine:
It may also require some form of demilitarized zone between the 2.
I've heard from a reliable Chinese insider source;
That a viable demilitarized zone can be as large as all Ukraine territories East of the Dnieper river
Here's my take:
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The President of the European Commission should be commended for her conduct in this war
I visited soldiers recovering in a hospital in Kyiv.
In spite of the injuries, their spirit is unbroken. Their determination, intact.
These are hard times for Ukraine.
Europe is at your side.
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Remember all these brands. They are all owned by a company which continues to trade in Russia, oblivious to Russia's monstrous crimes. Think before you buy.
#Mondelez
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@zhao_dashuai
The UK will deploy to the Pacific as part of a coalition of allies led by the US. Shall we, therefore, rearrange your graphic? Equally cute, I assume?
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Hatoyama is, of course, famous for his lack of political sense. Prime Minister for less than one year, his real speciality is destroying every political party he joins
Russia Day was celebrated at RU embassy in Tokyo today. In attendance was ex-PM Hatoyama Yukio & upper-house member Suzuki Muneo. Hatoyama gave speech in which he regretted that US did not heed RU warnings about NATO expansion. Suzuki pledged that he’ll always be friend of RU.
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Hungary’s Viktor Orban each year goes to Romania's Transylvania to deliver nationalist speeches designed to galvanise the considerable local ethnic Hungarian minority. Few governments would allow such an open appeal to irredentism, but the Romanians have tolerated this. A 🧵 1/12
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Read this excellent article, which tells readers what most European governments have known for decades: that if you tell Austrian officials any bit of confidential information, it immediately gets to Moscow.
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@DrProudman
This is a very frivolous, silly tweet that does you and your academic pretences no good.
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Listening to this nonsense, one has to wonder whether the place of the current Hungarian government is really inside the EU and NATO and whether our claim that these two key institutions are based on values makes any so long as present Hungary is a member 12/12
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@Bundeskanzler
@katholikentag
Let us continue with profound questions: Why do we exist? Why are humans violent? Can we not leave in peace? And while we debate such weighty matters, Ukrainians get killed wholesale
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Here
@BarackObama
is peddling self-serving nonsense. He claims that he and Merkel prevented Putin from occupying all of Ukraine in 2014 and that a true Ukrainian national identity only emerged after the seizure of Crimea. The claims are false and do him no credit
Did the west stand up enough to Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2014? Former President
@BarackObama
tells me that, "given both where Ukraine was at, at the time, and where the European mindset was at the time, we held the line."
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And since the Poles were so difficult, forcing Hitler to invade them, the Soviet Union also came along and seized half of Poland. Because, you see, these Poles are impossible. It would have been funny only that it's not: this little man is justifying & trivialising mass murder.
⚡️ Putin said the Poles forced Hitler to attack them in 1939.
Hitler just wanted to "realize his plans" and Poland was "uncooperative" and "forced" Hitler to attack and start World War II, Putin said.
So, 1939, late August.
Hitler: Poland, we want to annex you, agree!
Poland:…
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We Germans should have never agreed to the construction of Nord Stream 2 and we Germans turned a deaf ear to those in Europe who warned us about the implications of this project from the start
"We Germans are prepared to pay a high economic price" if sanctions against Russia are necessary. "This includes Nord Stream 2"
@ABaerbock
@MunSecConf
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Deeply moving. Latvians singing the Ukrainian national anthem outside the Russian embassy in Riga
#GloryToUkraine
#SlavaUkraini
Brīvību Ukrainai! Ukrainas valsts himna šovakar Rīgā, blakus Krievijas vēstniecībai.
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So, let me get this right: Germany makes no compromise to alleviate its energy crunch, but the rest of Europe must still cut its energy consumption in solidarity with Berlin? German economy minister rules out keeping nuclear plants running to save gas
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Let us hope that calmer heads will prevail. But the accusations against Poland - especially those uttered by Ukrainian and German politicians - are outrageous and completely unwarranted; the only one benefitting from this spat is Vladimir Putin
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The man who signed the deal with the Nazis to destroy Poland, occupy the Baltic nations and cut a large chunk out of Romania. The man who served as Stalin's lap dog. Now hailed as an "outstanding Soviet statesman" by Moscow. Tells everything there is to know about Russia today
🗓️ On March 9, 1890 outstanding Soviet statesman Vyacheslav Molotov was born
🔵 Permanent Representative of the USSR to the IAEA (from 1960 to 1963)
📌 Minister of Foreign Affairs of the USSR in the period from 1939 to 1949
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Reading this excellent
@NYTimesCohen
analysis led me to ponder about what would have happened if, say, the Polish government imposed legislation without parliamentary approval. Just imagine the shouts of "dictatorship" or "kick them out from the EU"
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This is a classic case of Westplaining. Report compiled by foreign researchers; Amnesty's own Ukraine office was not consulted. Because only westerners know how the natives should behave
⚡️ Ukrainian forces have put civilians in harm’s way by establishing bases and operating weapons systems in populated residential areas.
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Disappointing that in an otherwise very fine survey of Polish-German relations, the authors of the article don't ask once why Germany expanded so much effort over decades on reconciliation with France but never thought the same was required with Poland
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The US has provided five times as much military assistance to Ukraine as the rest of Europe (not merely the EU) put together. Remember this when someone talks again about "European Strategic Autonomy".
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Actually, the greatest risk facing Europe is to have Macron articulating the strategic interests of the continent
"The great risk” Europe faces is getting "caught up in crises that are not ours," says Emmanuel Macron.
In an exclusive interview aboard his plane, the French president explained why he wants Europe to reduce its dependency on the US 👇
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In case you wonder or have forgotten, this is the person meant to represent EU foreign policy and uphold respect for human rights around the world, but who has chosen to be utterly silent over the current democracy protests in Iran
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Step 1: Don't trust Chinese statistics. Step 2: Don't listen to
@WHO
advice. Step 3. Repeat the steps above
6 steps every country must take now to prevent coronavirus deaths: WHO Director-General
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This year’s speech was more unhinged than usual. He claimed that what is happening in Ukraine is “not our war”. He repeated Putin’s propaganda that the blame for the war lies with the West, for refusing to accept Russia’s “clear security demands” 2/12
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@RueDaungier
Under this logic, Ireland is guilty of aggressive behaviour when it joined the European Union?
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Good riddance! Shame it took so long
This morning, the Ukrainian coat of arms was installed on the Motherland monument’s shield in Kyiv, replacing the Soviet hammer and sickle that had been there for decades.
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The Coronation Procession is in good hands: it's commanded by General Christopher Ghika, heir to a historic Romanian family!
#Romania
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The only true "dynamic" here is the collapse in French influence in Europe.
Pour une dynamique réciproque.
De paix, de stabilité et de prospérité.
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The events of the past 18 months indicate that she was eminently dispensable.
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Orban dismissed Ukraine’s determination to continue fighting as a doomed strategy, akin to “sitting in a car with flat tires on all four wheels”. “The Ukrainians will never win a war,” he claimed, with the backing of the “Anglo-Saxons”. 4/12
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Chomsky's stupidity remains endless
🖋 Noam Chomsky : la Russie est bien plus humaine que les USA en Irak
💬 « Lorsque les États-Unis et la Grande-Bretagne ont détruit Bagdad, un dirigeant étranger est-il allé lui rendre visite ? Non, car lorsque les États-Unis et la Grande-Bretagne entrent en guerre, ils
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And naturally, we expect you to stop murdering people on our streets.
First Deputy FM Titov on Russia-UK relations: Sooner or later the normalisation will happen. Naturally, we expect more responsible and less hostile behaviour from London as a prerequisite.
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The EU’s job, said Orban, is not to side with the Ukrainians or Russians “but to stand between Ukraine and Russia”. But if you think that all this is outrageous, prepare yourself for the crescendo of the speech 5/12
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Throughout, Orban’s tone was dismissive of a West allegedly in terminal decline. Only Hungarians, he told his audience, “are better, more diligent and talented”. And, yes: “the world belongs to us” 11/12
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On this day in 1989, nothing happened. Absolutely nothing.
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The man who brought you the Brexit referendum and risked an entire nation just because he wanted to tackle an internal party problem is now complaining about the short-termism of others
Today’s decision on HS2 is the wrong one. It will help to fuel the views of those who argue that we can no longer think or act for the long-term as a country; that we are heading in the wrong direction.
HS2 was about investing for the long-term, bringing the country together,…
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And, for good measure, Mr Orban also repeated his already famous “racial purity” theories. “We’re not mixed race,” he told the ethnic Hungarians of Romania, “and we don’t want to be” 9/12
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@MFA_China
Absolutely not. The Royal Navy would organise live firing drills off the coast of Scotland, UK Government would start offering patriotic re-education programmes for Scots, and threaten sanctions on any foreign country that dares to send senior politicians for visits to Edinburgh
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@bbcnickrobinson
So, the standard BBC practice is to ignore the legal definition of a crime? Do they avoid using the word "murderer" for someone convicted of murder? Hamas is a proscribed organisation. By avoiding this definition, the BBC is actually taking sides
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According to Orbán, Western governments have tried to break up the V4 alliance of Central and Eastern European countries “for years” and are now seizing on the opportunity of the war in Ukraine to accomplish their destruction 6/12
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Still, Hungary is facing grave danger from George Soros and those plotting Elders of Brussels: “György Soros and the forces in Brussels still want to force migration on us” by dragging Hungary through the courts, he said. Naturally, only Orban can foil such knavish plots. 10/12
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“Russians speak such an old language”, Orban admitted. “But that doesn’t mean that what they say doesn’t make sense,” he added 3/12
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Outrageous behaviour from Stephen Flynn. Upside down wreath, staring blankly at the Order of Service, and not singing the National Anthem. A disgrace all around.
@theSNP
Not Representing Scotland
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Orban then went on to dismiss the choice of the Slovaks and Czechs who “are now with the post-Westerners” as a foolish choice, akin to “a person who ties up his horses in a burning stable” 8/12
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It's not just that the Poles "resent this asymmetry". It is that the German policy is wrong: Berlin's inability to see Poland as one of its key European allies and work hard at consolidating relations is myopic and self-defeating
Odchodzący ambasador niemiecki w wypowiedzi dla „Financial Times” diagnozuje rzekome kompleksy Polaków, którzy jego zdaniem pożądają niemieckiej atencji, bo „nie widzą się jako mały naród”.
To zdanie więcej mówi o Niemcach niż o nas.
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The Chinese delegation left the hall when the Ukrainian president spoke, the head of state of a country with which China has supposedly normal diplomatic relations. Remember this when you next hear some horseshit from Beijing about China being "neutral" in the "Ukraine conflict"
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The present political divisions inside
#Visegrad
, according to Orban, “are a matter of the heart, since, from the Hungarian point of view, the war is a conflict between two Slavic peoples, which we want to stay out of, while the Poles feel that they are involved” 7/12
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European defence, in one tweet
❗️The Taurus manufacturer has announced the cessation of missile production due to a lack of defense orders.
There has been war for two years and Field Marshal Olaf Scholz has not ordered any more Taurus.
Incredible.
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One of the most decorated generals of World War II. Started military service in Austro-Hungarian army, and died aged 102, living long enough to see Poland free again from communism. Disgracefully, was denied a British pension and ended up working as a waiter in an Edinburgh bar!
"The Germans had surrendered."
#OTD
5th May 1945
General Maczek, commander of the 1st Polish Armoured Division, describes the moment that he, and the German officers, learned that the naval base of Wilhelmshaven would be surrendered - to the Poles.
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Hundreds of thousands of Czechoslovaks mourning the death of Stalin on 9 March 1953. No doubt, all feeling as deeply bereaved and as spontaneous in their pain as many the Iranians are today for the death of Soleimani
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Here's my advice to all those who, overnight, have upgraded themselves to experts on the finer points of the diplomacy tradecraft: tweet less
Here's my advice to the next UK Ambassador to US: if you want to trash-talk President Trump, don't put it in writing so someone can inevitably leak it. Hope this helps.
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As they used to say in communist Eastern Europe, you always need three security officers: one who knows how to read, the second one knows how to write, and the third one is there to supervise the two dangerous intellectuals
Good news: the combined efforts of three Vienna airport security officers were eventually able to confirm that my pen was safe enough to let past…
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Four EU leaders visited Kyiv yesterday. All four of them were photographed with Zelensky. In common with most of the Western media, however,
@FT
chose to print a picture that has only three of the visiting leaders. And we all know why, right?
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As they used to joke in the Soviet Union, "the future is always predictable; it's only the past that gets rewritten"
Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin on Rossiya 24:
"If the operation hadn't started, on literally the next day Nato would have launched an operation, but using Ukraine's Neonazis and Banderites. We got in their first, which means we saved hundreds of thousands of lives"
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Congratulations to
#Austria
. Your soft power must have been boosted hugely by the sight of your Interior Minister running away from the media like a thief. But then, that's how he dealt with accusations of anti-semitism and plagiarism as well. By running
@BMI_OE
@MFA_Austria
Curaj de ministru de Interne 🇦🇹…😅 Filmarea e făcută de colegii mei: Bogdan “Pisică” Călinescu și
@lucianpirvoiu
.
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Ukraine: remember this when the war is over. Remember this as you rebuild your country.
Hungary‘s Foreign Minister met his Russian counterpart in Moscow & secured additional 700 mcm Russian gas as well as conducted talks under motto „Energy security in Hungary, peace in Europe.“ Lavrov‘s face says it all: Energy security and peace in Europe under Russia‘s dictates.
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Every leader kills people... Another pearl of wisdom from Comrade Tucker
Tucker Carlson, when asked about Alexei Navalny, opposition leaders and journalists in Russia: “Every leader kills people. Some kill more than others. Leadership requires killing people.”
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Say it loudly, say it clearly: European solidarity is far stronger, bigger and deeper than the propaganda aid offered by dictators in China or Russia
In the face of adversity, the people of Europe are showing how strong we can be together.
This is the example that the EU must follow. EU countries are starting to help each other.
#EUCO
#EUsolidarity
#EuropeansAgainstCoronavirus
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Now, this is an excellent angle of the problem, seldom explored in the UK
If Brits cannot even agree on Brexit, how will they be able to agree on a strategic course for the country once they‘ve left the EU?
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Powerful, frank words from Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki
@PremierRP_en
to leaders of Germany and France about their handling of Russia (in French, £ paywall, liberal translation) 🧵1/6👇
@PolandMFA
@PolishEmbassyUK
#Poland
via
@lemondefr
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"Kyiv, I'll be back", our Ambassador
@MelSimmonsFCDO
vowed on 23 February. As so she is now! Proud of what the UK has done and continues to do in support of Ukraine.
@UKinUkraine
@FCDOGovUK
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So, supposedly nothing has changed in the French position; it was all a big misunderstanding. That's how all of Macron's foreign policy initiatives go: they start with a bang, morph into a whimper, and end with a denial
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So there you have it. Each Olympic Games we are treated to two events: a Russian land grab from another country, and a Russian doping scandal
The latest from Putin's bloodthirsty mouthpiece, the head of RT Margarita Simonyan:
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I expected Moscow's shills to go into overdrive this weekend and, sure enough...
There is nothing subtle about this latest attempt to cajole US/NATO military intervention. Best way to do it: assert the existence of a "genocide" and tell foreign governments they're betraying the legacy of "Never Forget"
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Finally realised his dream. The self proclaimed defender of personal liberties becomes a citizen of a brutal, murderous dictatorshp. Edward Snowden granted Russian citizenship
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This a perfect example of everything wrong with the UK media today. A journalist representing the national broadcaster is sent to cover the G7 summit in a middle of a European war, but all he asks is about Braverman's speeding ticket. And, presumably, his Auntie bosses approve
Good to see the PM challenging
@ChrisMasonBBC
over his banal question on Suella Braverman.
On Friday he asked the PM about Harry and Meghan’s car chase.
Why send the BBC Political Editor all the way to the G7 Summit in Japan for this level of reporting?
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Dear Sweden, don't you think we should mention how Wallenberg died?
Today is Raoul Wallenberg Day, when Sweden honors moral courage & humanity.
The Swedish diplomat Raoul Wallenberg saved tens of thousands of Jews from the Holocaust. Like Raoul, you can make a difference, big or small, through your engagement and actions.
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Little detail Ros Atkins does not mention: the UK does not leaf through EU passports, nor does it stamp them; EU citizens continue to use e-gates. So intrusive passport checks are a political choice, not an automatic Brexit outcome
The delays at Dover and how they connect to Brexit. In 2 mins. Produced by Michael Cox, Tamara Kovacevic, Nicholas Barrett.
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And so it begins. The liar masquerading as a diplomat is now complaining about the "Moldovan regime". A prelude to a sequence of events which is by now familiar
Lavrov threatens "Moldovan regime" over Transnistria.
He compares Moldova with Ukraine and says that "the situation is identical."
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Nice one! Candidate for EU membership...
This mural in Serbia honours the Wagner Group forces in Ukraine
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With more than 75000 passing largely through Croatia and Hungary unchecked, I decided to approve Croatian membership in Schengen but veto Romanian and Bulgarian applications. All very logical and nothing personal, you see!
Wenn über 75.000 Migranten unkontrolliert durch EU-Staaten gehen, ist das ein massives Sicherheitsrisiko für die gesamte EU. Wir müssen Rumänien & Bulgarien beim Außengrenzschutz unterstützen & konkrete Maßnahmen ergreifen. Österreich macht sich dafür beim heutigen
#EUCO
stark.
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The EU Commission failed in its duty to defend farmers in central and eastern Europe by deciding that there was no longer a need for a formal agreement preventing the dumping of Ukrainian agricultural products. It was a politically-disastrous decision which guaranteed division
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Romania has given Russia a maximum of 30 days to reduce the size of the Russian embassy in Bucharest by around 60 per cent, given the "reduced" diplomatic scope between the two countries after the Russian aggression against Ukraine
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"A great European"... So great that Europe had to devote great efforts over the past 18 months to undo most of the fundamentals of her policies. Merci for leaving, Mme Merkel. Et bonne retraite
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The Polish President is absolutely right. It is unseemly for him to be prevented from speaking, while someone who defends an alliance with Hitler is apparently to be allowed to speak.
President Duda has now himself confirmed that he will not attend the event if he is not allowed to speak.
"It is a prerequisite that, as a representative of the country which had the most citizens murdered at Auschwitz, I can speak about historical truth"
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Precisely so. Prigozhin knows enough about the Kremlin to be aware that he is not Napoleon and he cannot march to Moscow. In reality, he is just a stalking horse for other forces, now waiting in the wings
Prigozhin would not be doing this if he didn’t know he has back up.
Let’s wait and see who that is.
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Absolutely: nothing can change simple facts. So, here is a photograph of the Nazi-Soviet "victory parade" after the two divided Poland between them
❗ Against the backdrop of attempts to rewrite history it is vital to
#remember
that we fought Nazis together, triumphed together.
👉 Nothing can change simple facts:
#OTD
the 🟥 USSR, 🇺🇸 US, 🇬🇧 UK, 🇫🇷 France held a historic joint
#Victory
Parade in Berlin.
#SeeForYourself
👇
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Read this excellent rebuttal of the claim that China exeeded others in helping with Europe's current health crisis. It didn't; it hoarded medical supplies, and then *sold* them to Italy. China’s Mask Mercantilism
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Fascinating how French president projects himself in a speech designed to show humility. Sitting at a rococo desk, dripping with gilt all around. A gold inkwell topped by a Gallic rooster. And antique books carefully placed on one side. In short, just like any homely French abode
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Soviet-style falsification of history. His party opposed EEC membership. It urged voters to say "no" in the 1975 referendum on Europe. And it was ready to leave the EU in 2014. These are absolute facts
50 Years Ago Today: Scotland became part of the EEC when the UK joined in 1973. Despite voting to remain in the European Union, Scotland was forced to leave the EU two years ago by the UK govt. Brexit has been a disaster.
#Brexit
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@mixich
Do read this thread. The truest voice for a generation of central and eastern Europeans. And why the EU matters
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But NOT ONE mention of
#Poland
, a key neighbour of Germany and clearly a sensitive relationship at the moment. And nobody in the Chancellery thought it clever to issue a Polish-language translation of the document. Quite astounding
Please note: especially on the ‘counting the countries’ bit there are almost certainly mistakes. I tried to check adjectives (“chinese” in addition to “China”) and things like PRC, and deleted mentions in the glossary, but 🤷♀️.
Should be correct enough to give you a sense though.
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The brave women of Belarus. Europe's pride
Women in Minsk have formed human chains in solidarity with protesters detained and beaten by the police.
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@OliverKamm
@WesternOpin1
The notion that people coming to the UK should be pressured to learn English is apparently "preposterous"...
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Congratulations,
@EU_Commission
! You did not manage to get the Central and Latin American countries to endorse a resolution supporting Ukraine, and you did not bridge the north-south divide, but you did manage to shaft the British over the Falklands!
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The real Chinese approach to international relations
Just when you thought Estonia couldn't be more of a joke.
The Baltic 3 littles aren't serious countries.
No, they aren't countries
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@kimwillsher1
To answer your question. No, this does not sound like French "appeasement" of Putin. But it does sound like Macron remains wedded to a Franco-German approach to the Ukraine war, one which is deeply distrusted by almost everyone else in Europe & especially Ukraine
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Tell it to the Austrians, who prefer to pay blood money to Russia rather than uphold European solidarity.
Bulgaria and Romania should be admitted to the EU's free-movement zone "without any further delay," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said today.
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Classic example of how to lose political reputation in one tweet
The
@Ryanair
flight took off just now from Minsk bound for Vilnius. Great news for everyone especially the families and friends of people onboard.
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Now, this is significant. Taiwan knew in December that something is developing in China. It informed the
@WHO
which did nothing. Precious lives were lost for political reasons, precisely what this wretched organisation should not do
Important reporting from
@TheEconomist
.
@WHO
has admitted it did not even REPLY to Taiwan officials raising concerns in late DECEMBER over possible human to human transmission in the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan. For fear of hurting WHO relationship with China. Answers needed.
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To all those repeating the "lifted millions out of poverty" trope: "By the time Mao died in 1976, living standards for the population were lower than in 1949". The Communist Party calls 1949 a liberation. But China was far freer beforehand.
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@Jingjing_Li
@wallacemick
@ClareDalyMEP
Do persuade them to stay in China; they won't be missed in Europe!
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Can't wait for the next
@nytimes
OpEd written by a complete unknown, telling us that soon after the Coronation was over, all this crowd went to the nearest food bank to have its first meal in days
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"If we want to talk about democratic values, we need to carry out a major European examination of conscience.
For too long, the most important value for many countries has been the low price of Russian gas". 6/6
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Indeed. The Romanian was ignored or cropped out of pictures by most western media
President Johannis of Romania is there too! He's standing right behind Macron. Romania has been a leader in supporting Ukraine from the very beginning. What a great, important Ally!
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As
@RaduTudor1970
reminds us, this is the second Moskva ship sunk in the Black Sea. The first Moskva (pictured left) was sunk by NMS Regina Maria (pictured right) of the Royal Romanian Navy in June 1941 when, incidentally, Snake Island was still part of Romania. Historic cycles
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Nonsense or to be more precise, bullshit. Lavrov's lies about the poison attack in Salisbury and his deliberate peddling of conspiracy theories does not make him a "professional" foreign minister. He is, though, long-serving. So were Molotov and Gromyko
The world is a small place! Look who I bumped into in Minsk: my old friend and colleague, Sergey Lavrov. We might not agree on everything, but he is one of the most professional and experienced Foreign Ministers I have ever met.
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