Mark Galeotti
@MarkGaleotti
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Mayak Intelligence, @UCLSSEES, @ConGeostrategy, @IIR_Prague. Analyst of murky topics from Russian politics to global crime. Views my own
Isle of Thanet, Kent
Joined April 2011
I don't think there's anywhere the EU's cognitive dissonance is on display more than the Caucasus. This official was (rightly) lambasting the Georgian govt yesterday for its abuses. Yet today she's in Azerbaijan - a much worse dictatorship - and it's all smiles and 'progress.'
Good discussions with @presidentaz and Foreign Minister @Bayramov_Jeyhun in Baku today. I congratulate you on agreements towards peace and normalization of relations with Armenia. The OSCE stands ready to support the implementation of the peace treaty and confidence-building
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We need to talk about WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN! I've just received the advance copies of the revised and updated version of my 2019 book from @PenguinUKBooks, out in the UK 13 November. Ukraine, Navalny, Prigozhin - lots to include but the core takes hold true.
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An excellent survey of the evolving Russian architecture of political warfare from @A_SHEKH0VTS0V, well worth reading
The Kremlin’s New Contractors: Inside Russia’s Market for Political Warfare: https://t.co/6IppnNfHYA
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And my apologies for not tagging journalist @marcoimarisio, whom I hadn't realised was on twitter, X, you know...
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«La Russia di Putin è prigioniera del passato. Una popolazione plasmata dalla guerra» Somehow, I doubt the Italian translation of my FORGED IN WAR will fall into Putin's hand, but I appreciate the image, and the chance to talk to @Corriere about the book https://t.co/s841C5TdXL
corriere.it
Lo storico Mark Galeotti autore del libro «Forgiati dalla guerra»: «La Russia non ha mai fatto veramente i conti con i demoni del passato»
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How Crime Organises the World Great to have a chance to talk about my @EburyPublishing book HOMO CRIMINALIS on this @APJ22 podcast episode. Australian cops inevitably have rather different perspectives on some of the geocriminal challenges of the 21stC!
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Monday morning re-up: looking for the new Nikolai Patrushev?
In Moscow's Shadows 220: Power Politics in the FSB and a new 'Most Dangerous Man in Russia'? Has the FSB's Military CI Department a new head? What does this mean for the FSB's internal politics - is 'crown prince' Korolev finally going to take over? https://t.co/24ksDXGp76
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Distinguished security analyst and historian @MarkGaleotti talks to us about the evolution of organised crime and its interdependence with legitimate society. Unique insights of a wicked problem. Available through podcast apps or at https://t.co/kA3k8g3Fg5.
#police #truecrime
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A very helpful statement from the Estonian govt, hopefully putting to bed the more lurid claims doing the rounds
Reports suggesting that the situation on the Estonian-Russian border is becoming tense are exaggerated. There is a road in South-East Estonia that briefly crosses into Russian territory. Locals are permitted to use it without stopping. On Friday, we observed seven armed Russian
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In Moscow's Shadows 220: Power Politics in the FSB and a new 'Most Dangerous Man in Russia'? Has the FSB's Military CI Department a new head? What does this mean for the FSB's internal politics - is 'crown prince' Korolev finally going to take over? https://t.co/24ksDXGp76
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A grim but important thread by @BalazsJarabik on his takes from #Ukraine
1/ Just back from Kyiv (after Washington). The mood has turned darker — even before last night’s strikes. The word “winter” is back, not just in forecasts but in tone. Energy, money, morale — everything now bends toward one goal: survival.
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The @TheStudyofWar really needs to rein in the wild speculation here & in their 6 October assessment... the 'Phase 0' argument strains the bounds of credulity to say the least, & buries the necessary & warranted caveats under unsupported alarmism.
ISW continues to assess that Russia’s increased covert and overt attacks against Europe indicate that Russia has entered “Phase 0” — the informational and psychological condition-setting phase — of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.
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A wave of conspiracy theories has spread online regarding Alexei Navalny’s book Patriot. People have noticed that in the Russian-language edition, unlike the English one, there are no anti-war texts by Alexei — no statements opposing the war with Ukraine. Some even write things
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I talk about this more in this episode of my podcast: In Moscow's Shadows 197: Russia's future fascist turn? https://t.co/3evD323iqW
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I do think that the growing combination of nationalism and populist economic protest is one of the more dangerous emerging phenomena for the Kremlin, which one can as easily see in a minigarch vanity project like Tsargrad TV as NatsBol protests
Here's something you don't see every day: Nationalist Bolshevik protesters chained themselves to the fence of Russia's Central Bank building in Moscow, shouting slogans against high interest rates and inflation (which is actually falling, but not quickly enough for many people).
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If you're a Russian speaker and you don't really 'get' why qualitative research on the war is useful, Yasha Lur'e does what I consider the best job yet in explaining PS Labs work to a tough audience.
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What's that you say? You don't have the ebook of A SHORT HISTORY OF RUSSIA? Inconceivable! Fear not, though: it's on sale at https://t.co/yk2FB0VJ2B for a trivial 99p this month
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…his default is likely towards conservatism and authoritarianism. Brezhnevism or Nicholas II-ism? One died in office, the other emphatically did not. We’ll see which parallel plays out best. 10/end
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He is, after all, risk averse, and tends to regard change as always the riskier option. Having seen both the USSR and DDR collapse around him, and regarding this as results of attempted reform and regime weakness… 9/
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But it’s hard to imagine VVP and his fellow septuagenarians able to reinvent themselves or come up with any substantive changes in direct. He *could* do all kinds of things, but will he? I suspect he’ll just plough on, hoping everything works out. 8/
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