🧵Happy to share some thoughts on my mini-dissertation about the main drivers of Soviet foreign policy towards India from Khrushchev’s famous visit in 1955 until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. I try to answer the Q: Why were the Soviets interested in India? 1/22
I will now be spending the next few months on my dissertation of Soviet-India relations trying to answer the Q: Why were the Soviets interested in India? I start with a few theories, though none with any major conviction, and I hope to have some answers on the other side! (16/17)
This is likely to snowball into an unprecedented deterioration of India-Canada relations, greater than the incremental slide that has been on display. Invoking protection of sovereignty, on either side, will likely leave little room for any compromise. 1/2
An interesting development has also been the massive divergence between India and Pakistan's Asian Games results:
1990: 🇮🇳 23 medals;🇵🇰 12
1994: 🇮🇳 23;🇵🇰 10
1998: 🇮🇳 35;🇵🇰 15
2002: 🇮🇳 36,🇵🇰 13
2006: 🇮🇳 53;🇵🇰 4
2010: 🇮🇳 65;🇵🇰 8
2014: 🇮🇳 57;🇵🇰 5
2018: 🇮🇳 70;🇵🇰 4
2022: 🇮🇳 107;🇵🇰 3
"At Sunday’s closing ceremony, India’s march will flag many positives: Team medals in shooting indicate a new depth of talent.. the track-and-field domination, the mother sport, added to India’s image as a growing sporting nation." 1/4
India at its weakest pushed back hard against Western involvement / interference in Kashmir. A strengthening India will not be forced into a corner by any foreign force, so I wonder if Berlin has thought this through completely.
Germany calls for UN's role in Kashmir issue.
German FM
@ABaerbock
said:
"Germany also has role and responsibility with regard to the situation in Kashmir, Therefore we support intensively the engagement of the United Nation, to find the peaceful solutions in the region."
A two-day nationwide strike in India, involving both public and private sector workers, has disrupted transport and other services across the country.
Workers are protesting the government’s economic policies, including a privatization plan.
The Economist ripping its mask off here - Western countries have nuclear weapons for strategic stability, while they are ‘prestige military toys’ for India. Would be glad to hear how this doesn’t count as condescending racism.
In the eyes of Indian generals, many of the country’s prestige military toys, such as nuclear-powered submarines and hypersonic cruise missiles, rely on Russian inputs
“In.. 1971, Pierre Trudeau toured 🇮🇳 for 5 days. He rode a camel, petted a bullock, went up the Ganges & into a locomotive factory & saw the Taj Mahal, wrote.. a 🇨🇦 Foreign Service official..
The bad blood in 🇮🇳-🇨🇦 ties.. began with Pierre Trudeau.” 1/4
"BJP Disinformation has exacerbated Hindu-Muslim divide in India. Indiam Muslim are told if they don't like the policies of BJP, they should go to Pakistan"
Karan Thapar
#ISD2022
#IsbDialogue
India has been under fire in the House of Commons and Lords for not supporting sanctions against Russia. Today Labour MP Chris Bryant said: "Should we not be putting pressure on companies - such as Infosys in India - that have big investments in Russia?"
If the West wants to spend time – and diplomatic capital – on this, it will realise that it will burn bridges with New Delhi & receive no gains. No Indian government – BJP, Congress or other – will tolerate Khalistani separatism. All costs would be deemed acceptable to bear here.
South-East Asia is today in a different world as compared to South Asia. The latter often chose grandstanding & big ideas in the early decades after independence, while the former focused on the smaller stuff and now finds itself enjoying much higher levels of peace & prosperity.
“a $1.2 trillion mega project called PM Gati Shakti.. creating a digital platform that combines 16 ministries. The portal will offer investors & companies a one-stop solution for design of projects, seamless approvals & easier estimation of costs.” (1/2)
I don’t see this as being true. Sri Lanka’s current crisis is due to economic reasons & not political, societal or cultural ones.
The country suspended external public debt repayments as it doesn’t have enough foreign currency earnings & resources. Not because of domestic issues
As a long-time student of Sri Lanka, I can say that the roots of the beautiful country's crisis lies not just in short-term economics, but more in its linguistic, religious and cultural majoritarianism over the past decades. There are lessons for us in India as well.
“Note the use of the word “regime” rather than “government” by Western journalists. The Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu or Rishi Sunak government is never described as a regime, with its derogatory connotation of electoral quasi-legitimacy.” 1/2
Learned a lot about the build-up and the aftermath of Goa's integration into India in "Goa, 1961' by Valmiki Faleiro who sadly passed away last year. The book shows a bumbling and inept foreign policy by Nehru's government as well as clear hypocrisy from Western nations. (1/30)
An undercurrent of religion is everywhere here.
IndiGo airline captain gives lecture on the Hindu festival of Navaratri, describes flight path from Varanasi to Kolkata as the city of Shiv to the city of Shakti: "India for me is not just a noun; it's an adjective, a quality."
🇮🇳’s UNSC voting during the 🇷🇺-🇺🇦 war ironically is exactly why it should eventually get a permanent seat. It is an independent actor, in no camp, won’t align exactly with any other P-5 member, & represents a huge constituency of its own population & much of the developing world.
I remember being told at Oxford in 2013 that The Economist was a ‘must read’ for everyone. What I didn’t know at the time was that far from having global and informative analysis, it instead continued to represent a narrow, parochial and frankly colonial view.
🚨
#BREAKING
: Chaos has Unleashed at Emory University as Georgia Police Deploy Tasers, Rubber Bullets, and Tear Gas Against Protesters
📌
#Atlanta
|
#Georgia
Moments ago at Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia, hundreds of students, pro-Palestine protesters, and other…
🧵 My thoughts on why the India-Russia relationship is likely to endure through this volatility. IMO, precedence, strategy, military, geography and emotional/anti-colonial sentiments will overcome the increased reputational costs and weak economic and cultural links. (1/14)
India was once a world champion against imperialism and for decolonization. Sad to see this embrace of imperial Russia using war and annexation to try to recolonize Ukraine. I guess money is more important than values.
India remains tough with Nepal:
"The recent trip was no tea party for the three-time prime minister. Even after bending over backwards to humour the Indians, the Maoist supremo could not extract what he wanted from them." 1/6
Ruchir Sharma: “Having covered Indian elections since the 1990s, I have never seen a contest more predictable than the one beginning later this month. The only point still in debate is how big Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s re-election victory will be.” 1/12
Genuinely flummoxed why an Indian politician would think that articulations like ‘India is not described as a nation’ makes for good politics. State-level politicians may see some electoral benefits, but this would boomerang for a national-level politician.
"Bharat is a union of states, that is the line of the constitution. India is not described as a nation, it is described as a union of States meaning the people of India have come together to form a union", Sh.
@RahulGandhi
Ji at Udaipur.
India’s Cold War legacy of leaning towards the USSR and heavy usage of Soviet, and subsequently Russian, military platforms is becoming a major strategic impediment for New Delhi. Increasing alignment with the West against China is making the Russia connection a liability.
Reminder that there was a UNSC resolution (S/5033) on 18 Dec 1961 calling for a ceasefire & India to withdraw its forces from Goa:
Sponsors: US, UK, France and Turkey
Supported by: Chile, Ecuador, ROC (Taiwan)
Opposed by: UAR (Egypt), Sri Lanka, Liberia
Vetoed by: Soviet Union
On Goa Liberation Day, the nation pays homage to the martyrs who laid down their lives for liberation of Goa from colonial rule. We salute the freedom fighters and our armed forces for their exemplary courage and sacrifce. I wish a bright future to the residents of this beautiful…
“Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gathered local journalists in Riyadh for a rare off-the-record briefing in December and delivered a stunning message. The country’s ally of decades, the UAE, had “stabbed us in the back,” he said.” 1/5
“The matter has now slipped into the hands of the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) from the MEA. And the MHA has unleashed all its agencies to crack down on the Khalistani elements. India might soon suspend all the Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) cardholders in Canada.” 1/4
Leaving aside the obvious question around India, I’m curious as to why the Scandinavian press is apparently so much ‘freer’ than US media. What does a Swedish news show or newspaper do that its American counterparts don’t?
“There a strong possibility India, at some point, starts pulling apart..” is a hell of a take from Obama, perhaps even qualifying as incendiary rhetoric.
Just sat down for an exclusive w/ President
@BarackObama
in Athens to discuss the future of democracy, at home & abroad. I asked how the US should engage with autocracies. Watch his response.
Our interview and a conversation with 3 Obama Foundation leaders airs 10pET on
@CNN
.
“senior European officials said China shot itself in the foot by staying away from the summit, allowing India to cement its leadership of the Global South and providing the US and Europe a clear path to strengthen ties with emerging markets.” 1/2
“not only has India not named a new ambassador to the United States but it now pays little attention to the US ambassador in New Delhi. Time was when doors in South Block readily opened to a US ambassador. We now have the think-tankers in the government’s extended intellectual…
The anomaly will keep becoming more and more pronounced, especially when India’s economy eventually grows larger than Japan and Germany within this decade, taking it to third place.
Decolonisation is not fully complete as yet.
India vs France & the UK
1. Same GDP
2. Faster GDP growth
3. 15x Population
4. 5-10x Land area
5. Larger stock market cap, army size & defense spend
6. Democracy
Why is India not a G7 or UN Security Council permanent member like France/UK?
Treat us as partners, not a colony.
Interesting parts from
@nitingokhale
's Gentleman Spymaster (2019):
"3 crucial files on Bangladesh, the merge of Sikkim and Mrs Indira Gandhi’s assassination will not be open until 2025, according to instructions left behind by him, months before he passed in January 2002.” 1/12
Very interesting – “Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has tried to maintain good relations with Moscow and Kyiv, offered assistance on peace talks in a call with Zelensky last month. He was spurned by the Ukrainian leader.”
‘Friends with Benefits’ is an excellent account of the US-India relationship by
@seemasirohi
, who lucidly writes about the bilateral relationship from the early 1990s onwards.
Thoroughly recommend this book – it’s easy to read, full of interesting stories & unputdownable. 1/42
There will be no Khalistan, but Canada will certainly earn the enduring wrath of the soon-to-be world’s 3rd largest economy. Ottawa clearly sees no problem in this given the domestic electoral benefits from the strategy, so expect this faultline to get amplified with time.
#BREAKING
: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau smiles as Khalistan Zindabad slogans are raised by radicals in Ontario of Canada. NDP’s Jagmeet Singh says Sikh Genocide needs to be recognised. Canada continues to shelter and sponsor Khalistani separatism and terror. Shame.
“Modi may genuinely be the world’s most popular leader. What is often difficult for outsiders to appreciate, though, is that turning this popularity into sustained political control is an order of magnitude harder in India than elsewhere.” 1/2
The world has still not seen the full extent of Indian nationalism - the reaction to
#Chandrayaan3
shows only a glimpse of the world's largest population that is desperate to succeed.
This is a remarkably ignorant and frankly dangerous tweet. ‘Allying with Russia’ leading to India becoming ‘part of an axis of evil’ is an incredibly bad faith argument made for some strange domestic political posturing.
India needs to speak up. Allying with Russia (no matter what our past ties) risk making us part of an axis of evil. Condoning criminality cannot be smart foreign policy.
“These state polls cannot be viewed as a proxy for what might happen at a federal level, but they do tell us one thing: Modi is a force to be reckoned with.”
Scintillating insight in 2013, embarrassing analytical ability in 2023.
A lot of interesting details in former ambassador Chandrashekhar Dasgupta’s ‘India and the Bangladesh Liberation War’, especially around India’s overall aims & grand strategy. Some noteworthy anecdotes:
In August 1971, when the 🇵🇰 foreign secretary, Sultan Mohammed Khan.. (1/7)
Wikipedia describes Subhas Chandra Bose as: “Indian nationalist whose defiant patriotism made him a hero in India, but whose attempts during World War II to rid India of British rule with the help of Nazi Germany and Fascist Japan left a troubled legacy” - surely not for Indians?
Pakistan's foreign minister's unexpected reaction to the Indian External Affairs minister's remarks
“I want to tell India that Osama bin Laden has been killed while the butcher of Gujarat is still alive & he is the PM of India"Says Foreign Minister of Pakistan
@BBhuttoZardari
Insights into why Indonesia rejected the BRICS invite:
“Instead, Indonesia sees its national interests are best served by joining the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the “rich men’s club” made up of 38 mostly Western countries.” 1/5
"The same source mentioned that the ministers who rejected the BRICS proposal argued that the coalition is fragile due to a lack of unity among member countries. Russia’s presence in the grouping is also deemed as a liability."
Dreams of Running Bullet Trains like Japan in India is a bluff to the Nation. Indian soil is not capable to set up such railway tracks on the
Ground. It is the Science / not to be taken as one speech of a street corner meeting.
“black-and-white videos are emerging of the Pakistani team celebrating victory in that January 1999 Chennai Test with “naara e takbir, Allahu Akbar”. For decades, Pakistani centurions in cricket and winners in hockey against India have bent in prayer.” 1/2
We are cricket-crazy and partisan, not Nazis. Stop demonising Gujarat crowd
ThePrint Editor-in-Chief
@ShekharGupta
writes in this week's
#NationalInterest
Illustration: Soham Sen
@SohamDraws
.
@AkhiPill
: “In truth, most Indians do not care about the occasional raid against a journalist or a magazine – a very narrow elite concern – but do care about a party’s overall performance, ability to deliver development, and vision.” 1/12
After reading this thread, one feels that perhaps the British should re-colonise India so that the natives can be taught more about who their real heroes are. Apparently it’s dangerous to commemorate resistance to the magnificent and famously benevolent British Raj.
India has always had a rather ambivalent attitude to Subhas Chandra Bose, who initially sought Hitler's support and then allied with the Japanese, but was also fighting for Indian independence. That said, I think this is going too far. Dangerously so.
Who will come out on top? The smaller economy which benefits from strong Euro-Atlantic friends that will frame it as a rule of law Q, or the larger – & faster growing economy – that is apparently ready to shed its ‘soft state’ tag in pursuit of its perceived national interests?
“India will start out doing low-value assembly work using imported tools and components, and then gradually work its way up the value chain. Right now, in terms of its position in the supply chain, India is about where China was in the early 2000s.” 1/6
This roundup was a very fun one.
- Saudi Arabia is screwed
- Wait 1yr for Americans to be optimistic
- The "EV revolution stalls" story is fake
- American schools are good except in math
- India is industrializing
- China's urban quirks
British (and most of Western) media would have created an uproar had their embassy in New Delhi been subject to separatists forcibly taking down the Union Jack. Instead, we are getting to see ludicrous takes on how difficult it is to secure property in Central London.
This is a real compliment from Chinese media towards India – spending time churning out such nonsense. This isn’t going to make Tesla rethink its investment decisions but it does tell a global audience of the immense sour grapes in some parts of China with respect to 🇮🇳’s growth.
#Tesla
should worry about its decision to build a factory in
#India
, why? Charles Liu, senior fellow at the Taihe Institute, at
#GlobalArena
:
-lack of supply chain and infrastructure
-lack of skilled engineers and workers
-negative business environment
Absolute nonsense. We’re seeing the fear-mongering now and we’ll see fear-mongering in the years to come. Western media can continue with their histrionics around Indian democracy & keep impinging on the natural friendship between the West & India – with no gains to show for it.
Will this be India's last democratic election? The degree to which Modi has used pliable judges, tax authorities & other forms of coercion to silence critical journalists, imprison opposition leaders, close down pesky NGOs, and bring civil society to heel is massively…
“Apple's suppliers in India.. are being asked to make over 15 million iPhones in India this year -- more than double the goal a year ago, Nikkei Asia has learned. It is all part of a tectonic shift in Apple's manufacturing supply chains.” 1/10
India will let its relationship with Canada wither away if it has to – FTAs are not even remotely a pressure point on New Delhi. If Canada wants to base its entire bilateral relationship with India on this issue, it’ll not have much of a relationship left.
Fantastic riposte from Guyana’s President to a sermonising, condescending and tactless BBC reporter who seems to be believe the world is still in a past century. The Global South very much knows what it is up against.
“Let me stop you right there…”
Caribbean nation Guyana is booming after discovering oil. BBC’s Stephen Sackur puts it to President
@presidentaligy
; lobbyists say oil is bad for the climate.
Dude wasn’t having it. Mans was ready!
“Canadian intelligence establishment is yet to identify any 🇮🇳 citizen potentially linked to the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar flying in or out of 🇨🇦, either directly or indirectly, before or after the killing of the wanted Khalistani terrorist..” 1/2
As many have noted, he was an apologist for Japan's war crimes — not forgivable — and something of a militarist, or at least an advocate of a Japan once again willing to use force. Nothing good to say about that 2/
Former 🇬🇧 National Security Adviser and Ambassador to the US Kim Darroch says UK has a “warm and fuzzy” view of India, but India is “ruthlessly unsentimental.”
He doubts a UK-India trade deal is possible (that’s not exactly what his former colleagues are saying).
The Economist deserves no free pass when it comes to its framing around India — it has always reeked of colonial bias and nothing has changed. The country is always on the brink of ‘ruin’..
@FareedZakaria
: “Visiting India this week, I was struck by how different the mood there is compared with much of the world. While people in the US & Europe are worried about inflation & a.. recession, Indians are excited about the future.” 1/5
'To Raise A Fallen People' edited by
@rahulsagar
contains some excellently discovered works of Indians writing in the 19th century on various topics- sometimes about a very different India, & other times about how inhabitants of this great civilisation imagined their future. 1/12
“Today, with India embarked on its 18th general election campaign, there is no electricity in the air. It is hard to find anyone who believes Prime Minister Narendra Modi will lose his bid for a third term in office.” 1/6
Fascinating:
@DhruvRathee___
, arguably the most widely followed & highly admired YouTube video-maker of his generation in India, whose last two videos on dictatorship have together achieved nearly 50 million views, has said that Narendra Modi is “70-80% a dictator”, and urges…
“The United Arab Emirates is considering investing as much as $50 billion in India, its second-largest trading partner, as part of a broader bet on the world’s fastest-growing major economy.” 1/4
I’m generally immune to the intellectual buffoonery often on display on here, but this is really something – using a video about another country to make a point while shrugging off complaints about inaccuracy.
"India was to be patronised for being an obedient ally, serving the West’s overarching interests.
There was one problem though. India, on the cusp of becoming the world’s third largest economy by 2029, didn’t quite see matters that way." 1/2
#FPOpinion
| The Pannun case is a warning shot across India’s bow: India’s rise is good for the world but it should be on the West’s terms
By
@MinhazMerchant
Rather than government ministers, opposition MPs (no fans of the government) are vocalising India’s stance on the matter against Canada, displaying national unity and conveying that is not a Modi/BJP/NDA/episodic issue. This is a no-compromise issue for any Indian government.
#WATCH
| On the India-Canada row, Congress MP Shashi Tharoor says, "...We are now seeing a new phenomenon where immigrants to Canada have become Canadian citizens but are not doing anything in Canadian politics. They're focusing on how to actually do damage to their country of…
@RuneLinding
Who determines this? And can the same judging committee say that Russia and China are meeting this criteria currently? Have the US, UK and France met this criteria all the time since 1945?
The real world unfortunately seems to validate that power and influence overcome all else.
.
@stevenacook
: “Washington is overlooking one of the most interesting geopolitical developments in the region in years: the emergence of India as a major player in the Middle East.” 1/6
India Has Become a Middle Eastern Power
“At least $1 trillion of govt securities traded daily in the most populous nation & biggest democracy is poised to become the darling of international investors when India this year joins the benchmark for emerging-market debt compiled by JPMorgan..” 1/4
Interesting from
@AkbaruddinIndia
: “I haven’t heard any US diplomat ever, in my 30 years plus at the UN, ever speak once in favour of India as a permanent member (of UNSC).. never once have I heard even a 3rd secretary from the US mission say..”
“Japan’s Daikin Industries aims to make India its biggest manufacturing hub for exports, as the world’s largest air-conditioning company targets a near tripling of Made in India products sent abroad by 2025.” 1/3 via
@FT
For a low-income country like India, the overriding priority has to be to maximise economic growth & to enable financially strengthening the state, households & businesses. There’s enough time to redistribute later. No need to primarily focus on inequality issues right now. 1/2
So liberal, much rules.
All countries have problems with policing and controlling demonstrations but the US is unusual in its grand moral posturing when it comes to other countries – especially when its own domestic conduct is often found lacking.
RAMASAMY
1. Ramasamy is annoyed that I still distinguish the descendants of migrants from China and India as “orang asing” or people of foreign origins.
The staggering levels of hypocrisy and racism on display during the reporting of this conflict send a very clear message worldwide — life is apparently valued differently for Europeans and non-Europeans.
“It’s one thing for sarin gas to be used on people in far away Syria who are Muslim and of a different culture. What is Europe going to do when it is on European soil, done to Europeans?”
Unbelievable from Julia Ioffe on CNN.
“The recent act of (Malaysian) Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim who openly converted a Hindu youth to Islam after performing Friday prayers at a mosque in Klang, Selangor, yesterday has sparked criticism among non-Muslims.”
It’s interesting to see how some bad faith arguments by a few US analysts ahead of Modi’s visit are getting massacred by scores of Indians online. This, of course, has no impact in the real world but it does make a mark in the arena of English-language social media discourse. 1/2
@ZeeMohamed_
Using a random one-off incident which involves a junior-to-mid level official’s interaction hardly is conclusive evidence of some nefarious plot planned by the Central Government, no? Feel free to oppose any political party’s ideology - but this argument is really a stretch.
“India has confronted Myanmar in recent months with intelligence showing that China is providing assistance in building a surveillance post on a remote island in the Bay of Bengal, according to Indian officials with knowledge of the matter.” 1/2
Some have lost their mind re:India:
“Consider 🇮🇳& 🇵🇰. Perhaps.. that both are nuclear powers keeps.. occasional border clashes from escalating. But what if a skirmish somehow gets out of hand, perhaps fueled by the rising militancy of Hindu nationalists?”
@stephenWalt
: “people outside the West view the rules-based order & Western insistence that states not violate international law as rank hypocrisy, & they were particularly resentful of Western attempts to claim the moral high ground on this..” 1/8
Not commenting on the merits/demerits of the specific argument here, but it’s interesting to see how many non-verifiable caveats and disclaimers are used here:
‘critics’, ‘wants’, ‘hopes’ and ‘encouraging’
How can this be proven or disproven when such language is employed?
“Modi’s critics say that his Hindu nationalist government wants to exert more control over Muslim-majority Kashmir and that it hopes to shift the demographic balance by encouraging members of the country’s Hindu majority to settle there.”
@MichaelKugelman