Jay Kotak
@jay_kotakone
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46,550
Following
671
Media
212
Statuses
7,542
Co-Head @kotak811 . Conglomerate Relationships @KotakBankLtd Feet on the ground, eyes to the sky. History, Chess, AoE2, FPL.
Mumbai, India
Joined February 2011
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India vs France & the UK
1. Same GDP
2. Faster GDP growth
3. 15x Population
4. 5-10x Land area
5. Larger stock market cap, army size & defense spend
6. Democracy
Why is India not a G7 or UN Security Council permanent member like France/UK?
Treat us as partners, not a colony.
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A 30 yr old friend landed in America, went to a local pharmacy at 10 am without appt & was vaccinated for free by 10:03 am. No documentation.
US sports stadiums, restaurants, public transport, nightclubs are open. Yet, daily cases are down from 3 lakh to 18,000. Vaccine magic.
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Five privately owned, unelected, unaccountable American tech companies can unilaterally & simultaneously lock anyone on earth out of the internet - a basic modern right.
Just because this time they did it to someone you disagree with doesn’t make it right. Dangerous.
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India administers 1.5 billion vaccine doses, still growing at 8-10 million shots daily.
Manufactured domestically. Sold at 1/10th the price of western vaccines, just as effective (vs inferior Chinese & Russian shots).
Outstanding achievement. Worth reiterating.
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In the US for my Harvard 5th year reunion. A nation in decay
Inflation is perceptible. Cities are dirtier. Every day, gun violence headlines.
Airport lines, flight delays, stretch for hours.
Average person is pessimistic.
Flying to India feels like returning to a better place
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Cases in India are down from ~100k a day in September to 8.6k
Deaths: 1,250 to 94
Case positivity/test: 10% to 1%
Deaths cannot be fudged, even if one doesn’t rely on case numbers. We criticise India for many things - let’s acknowledge this achievement & not let down our guard
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Aditi, my fiancée, completed her MBA from Yale University today. Immensely proud of you
@AryaAditi
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Short & simple budget. No complex regulation. No new tax on labour or capital (other than crypto, which is needed). No excessive populism. Focus on investment, infrastructure & digital.
The remarkable Indian growth story continues.
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Historical context for India’s abstain UN vote.
In 1971 Pakistan committed genocide in Bangladesh. America supported Pakistan, sent an aircraft carrier into the Bay of Bengal to intimidate India. Russia unconditionally supported us.
Diplomacy is rooted in history & realpolitik
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I have not carried a wallet anywhere in India this month. Just my phone.
All payments via UPI. Street snacks, medicines, restaurants & even tips. Avg UPI transaction cost is ~0 vs ~1% for cards.
All ID & documentation via digilocker. Including multiple airport entries.
(1/2)
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Amidst the negatives we often hear about India, 10 positives in the last 10 years (THREAD):
1. Aadhar. A public good, not a private monopoly like AliPay or Venmo. Identification for every Indian, for financial & telecom inclusion. 1.3 billion Aadhar cards issued, 99% coverage
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Mumbai airport handles MORE passengers than Boston. Yet, there are few lines. All counters are staffed, the airport is new and clean. Flights are cheaper. India works.
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Japan’s Nikkei Index hit 39,000 in 1989, never reached again. 32 years later, it’s at 26,000.
In the same time, Japan’s GDP has grown 65%, from $3 to $5 trillion.
Sometimes, buying at rich multiples doesn’t pay off over an entire lifetime, even if the underlying asset is ok.
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Three weeks ago, Mumbai was reporting 11,000 COVID cases daily. Today - 3,800 new cases. Mumbai also reported over 60,000 vaccinations today, that’s 1.8 million a month run-rate, and increasing.
Some green shoots amidst the negative news.
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India borrows at 7.5% vs the UK at 4% (10 yr Govt bond).
India has similar GDP, higher GDP growth & Forex reserves, lower exchange rate depreciation, public debt and fiscal deficit to GDP! Not to mention a stable government and policy framework!
Colonialism isn't entirely dead!
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When India faced the Delta variant in May, US media painted a tragic story. Yesterday USA had 266k cases, 1350 deaths, despite 4 more months to vaccinate
The web front pages of NYT, WSJ, Fox today - almost no mention of Covid! Of course India's wave was worse, but bias is clear?
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India administered 20 million vaccine doses today, more than the US did in all of last month, more than Australia has ever done!
India has given almost 800 total million vaccine shots, almost all manufactured domestically. How many other low/mid income countries have done this?
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Turkish Lira has crashed from 7 to 20 per dollar in one year. Imagine the Rupee/Dollar going from 70 to 200!
Turkey is 4x wealthier than India on a per capita basis, but its President doesn't believe in economics & interest rates. India has had years of sound, stable policy.
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When UK last had 50k Covid cases, it had 700 daily deaths. Yesterday had 50k cases again, but 40 deaths - drastically lower fatality. UK is 54% full vaccinated.
India is 6% full vaccinated. This virus WILL return, ruining lives & livelihoods, unless we vaccinate much faster.
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America deals with millions of Covid cases & post-Trump trauma. Indians debate Rihanna & Kangana. China builds a new $100 billion company every year.
Just listed Kuaishou is bigger than any company in India.
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What happens if Facebook, Google, Twitter, Microsoft and Amazon all went down together like Facebook has today? I’m talking AWS, Youtube, Gmail, Azure - everything.
Anarchy and civilisational paralysis. Five companies own and control the human species.
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9. Infrastructure: 20+ km of highways built per day. Airports, Railways, Ports, Metros coming up across India.
10. Privatization: Air India done! Some PSU banks in the pipeline.
Quoting my dad: “India may be a challenging photograph, but an exhilarating movie!”
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Got this from a Chinese-American friend of mine who lives in Hong Kong, visiting India for the first time in a few years.
India looks great if you take a step back and appreciate all the small changes that add up!
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In addition to being of Indian origin, the CEOs of Microsoft, Google, Twitter, IBM, VMWare and Adobe are ALL engineers.
With every successful company becoming vastly tech dependent - what happens to the premium perception of finance, sales & marketing skillsets!
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In April India was vaccinating at 3.5 million daily. That has fallen to ~1.5 million, or 45 million monthly. Why? I thought Covishield + Covax are already producing at 80 million monthly run rate. Distribution constraint?
Vaccination is the only way out. We must accelerate.
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As a society we should be teaching our children - critical thinking, financial planning, basic medicine, a second language, teamwork
Past grade 7, there is little value in forcing every child to do calculus, covalent bonds and mitochondria being the powerhouse of the cell
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A learning for India from Afghanistan - hard power matters. We cannot rely on others, especially America
Our neighborhood is dangerous. There is no prosperity or democracy without security and stability. Investment in armed forces, intelligence & police is crucial
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Population adjusted, India has handily outperformed the US & Europe on Covid health metrics.
Even if we multiply India's numbers by 2x to adjust for hypothetical underreporting, we are lower than these much wealthier places. Yes, we aren't perfect, but numbers don't lie.
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A decent smartphone can be bought under Rs. 10,000, with high speed data at the lowest rates in the world. Good network penetration across India.
Technology is transforming India for all. Seamless payments and Verified ID are substantive enablers for even further progress.
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US issues lvl 2 travel advisory for India. “Crime & terrorism”
Crime (murder per lakh)
US: 7
India: 3
Anecdotally - I’ve lived in Mumbai & NY, Mumbai much safer
I deeply admire the US economy & values. But Americans are safer in India than back home!
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India administers half a billion vaccine doses (50 cr)! 38% doses/people. Our per capita GDP is $2000
Big countries under $5000:
Indonesia: 7.1 cr (26%)
South Africa: 1.1 cr (19%)
Pakistan: 3.5 cr (16%)
Vietnam: 0.8 cr (8%)
Egypt: 0.6 cr (6%)
We aren’t perfect, but this is good
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The comedian has become a leader. The leader has become a laughing stock.
🇺🇦
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2. Payments. Democratized UPI - seamless and at fractional cost. A scale solution for all. Over $100 billion of cumulative transactions. QR codes for all!
3. Telecom. Widespread 4G at the lowest rates of any major nation. 700+ million smartphone users.
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4-6% return on a bank deposit doesn’t look too bad now?
Return of capital > Return on capital.
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"Not a single Omicron patient has required oxygen support so far." Delhi Health Minister.
Should we really be shutting down our economic revival for this? Restaurants, movie theaters, live shows are endpoints for long supply chains, employing lakhs.
COVID19 positivity rate is around 1% with 496 new cases reported yesterday. The cases have increased with the arrival of international flights. Not a single Omicron patient has required oxygen support so far: Delhi Health Min
Track latest news updates here
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US inflation rises to 7.5% in January. Even higher than economist estimates of 7.2%.
Month on month increase was 0.6%. With rates at zero, the US dollar is losing value at 7% each year. Scary.
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In 2003, India’s stock market value was ~$200 billion, Britain’s was $2 trillion.
Today - parity. From being 1/10th the size to equal in less than 20 years.
India’s stock market is on the cusp of overtaking that of the U.K. in value
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American Seals killed scholar, economist & poet-turned-rebel commander in Abbottabad.
p.s. His name was Osama Bin Laden.
Indian troops kill maths teacher-turned-rebel commander in Kashmir
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Odisha rail tragedy data - India’s accident rate has fallen below 0.1 per million km travelled. America’s Amtrak is ~1.0. Travel on the Indian Railways is ten times safer than Amtrak?
I didn’t see most western media discuss this, amidst their detailed coverage of the event.
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4. Domestic Startup Economy - Nykaa, PayTm, Zomato, PolicyBazaar, Swiggy, RazorPay, Zerodha, Cred, Ola, Flipkart & more. Talent is returning to India.
5. Indian Bankruptcy Code - While imperfect, IBC has created an avenue for bankruptcy resolution, critical for economic vitality
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6. REITS, INVITS, AIFs - Financial instruments giving all investors to access long term, often illiquid assets.
7. Effective Govt Technology: DigiLocker, Cowin, Aarogya Setu. Simple apps for everyone, day to day.
8. Gas Connections & Toilets for all. 100 million toilets built
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Apple cuts phone production, chip shortage
New Car wait 6-12 months
Furniture delivery 4-8 months
Freight shipping 2x more expensive YoY
US CPI 5%+ for 5 months straight
Everything correlated. Inflation is back. Interest rates have to go up. A storm is coming, Mr Wayne?
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Uber in the US is much worse than it was 3-4 years ago: 2x the price, longer waits, older cars
Uber’s current $57 bn valuation is half of its 2019 peak of $120 bn
Once irrational VC funding ended, marketplace reality kicked in. The same thing will happen to many other companies
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Yes, India needs to accelerate vaccination. But in absolute terms, we are
#2
in the world - behind America, but well ahead of all other populous, middle income countries like Brazil, Russia, Indonesia.
Excluding China because data cannot be trusted, and Sinopharm low efficacy.
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The average Judge in India makes ₹9 lakh annually, average Teacher ₹ 3 lakh. Private sector lawyers, engineers, consultants make 5-7x as much
Judges & Teachers are the backbone of society. We must better incentivise talented people to pursue these professions. Happy Diwali 🪔
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Bitcoin, Ethereum & Dogecoin are down 55%, 60% & 70% from highs in the last year - with significant volatility
In that time, the US $ index has stayed in a 5% range (90 to 95), Gold in a 15% range ($1700 to 2000) and Rupee between 70 and 76! How is crypto comparable to currency?
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India’s financial system more robust than the US? Robin Hood saga indicates that.
Strict limits on shorting and trade leverage, ban on trade data sale to “front-run” retail traders, democratised p2p payments platform (UPI), robust clearing framework. Credit where it’s due.
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Last year, India earned more from exporting software services than Saudi Arabia did from exporting oil.
India is on the move - our market size, regulatory stability and startup ecosystem are now attracting both talent and capital in droves.
India exports more software ($133Bn) than Saudi Arabia exports oil ($113Bn), with the largest engineering population in the world
What an amazing story that was seeded 40 years ago, and has huge potential to go further
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Federer, Nadal and Djokovic have won 60 of 72 grand slams since 2003 - 20 each. The next highest is Andy Murray with 3. What a triumvirate.
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In the past month - daily Covid cases in the UK are up 300% (1900 to 7600). Cases in the UAE are up 70% (1250 to 2100).
Both places have some distancing restrictions and are 60%+ one dose vaccinated - Vaccines work, but Covid is resilient & treacherous. India must stay vigilant
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Podcasts have changed my life this year. Invaluable, free, long format content and learning, with just a smartphone and internet. A few hours a week might make you wiser than most schools or colleges. Sharing my favorites.
1.Lex Fridman - Dense & informative. Philosophy,…
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Afghanistan also proves that military competence is not just about billions of $ of weapons and training - but culture, respect and willingness to fight for something
India’s armed forces have a history of competence, and would never abdicate responsibility. We must be grateful.
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Average US inflation for the last 6 months is ~5.5%. Indian inflation is almost the same, 5.5%.
US govt borrows at 1.5% for 10 year bonds. India borrows at 6.3%.
$ real interest rates: -4%.
₹: +0.8%
Something isn’t right?
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HALF of all US dollars today have been created in the last 18 months. 50% of “valuable reserve currency” has just been conjured up from thin air.
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We have been blessed this past decade. Federer, Serena, Phelps, Ronaldo, Lebron, Hamilton, Nadal, Messi, Djokovic and Bolt are ages 39, 39, 36, 36, 36, 36, 35, 34, 34, 34, respectively.
The Golden Generation of ALL Sport. Let's savour it while it lasts - not much longer.
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Robin Hood banning trading in certain US stocks today shows that big tech can instantly & arbitrarily shut individuals out from the stock market - in addition to social media, cloud services, video and email!
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1 year productivity:
An acre of farmland - 50 bushels of wheat
$100 of Walmart stock - $1.50 of dividend
$100 of US ten year bonds - $1.62 of interest
Bitcoin produces nothing - an unproductive asset. It relies on the next person to value it more than you did.
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Inflation is a silent tax on society.
US bank deposit rates are sub 0.5%. US Inflation is 6%+. Simply leaving money in safe liquid funds or banks loses 5.5% annually.
A US bank deposit today HALVES real value of money in 10 yrs. Yet, there is often no better place to put it.
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Appalling hypocrisy from Bloomberg. Not one single negative word on China's original "Errors, Inaction"
Yes - India was slower to identify Delta. But that wouldn't have prevented rapid spread. To suggest that this "sent" covid around the world is awful
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UK Covid hospitalizations in December is LOWER than November, (7,500 vs 8,500/day). For context - January was 35,000/day. Similar in South Africa.
Let’s vaccinate, mask up & take precautions. But no panic. High cases do not mean much unless matched by hospitalizations & deaths.
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We learned Keplers laws of planetary motion, measuring map distances with a string, idioms and synonyms, and cylinder volume being πr2h.
But school never taught us calculating interest rate on a home loan with fees, investing 101, filing tax returns, fixing lower back pain!
As a society we should be teaching our children - critical thinking, financial planning, basic medicine, a second language, teamwork
Past grade 7, there is little value in forcing every child to do calculus, covalent bonds and mitochondria being the powerhouse of the cell
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India and China - the only major economies whose share has grown vs the US since 2000. In 6-7 years, India’s economy will be larger than Germany & Japan. Next, we must accelerate per capita growth.
On ground excitement & optimism in India is the most I have seen in my life.
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Germany closed nuclear reactors, America banned the Keystone Oil Pipeline
UK sold prime assets, football clubs to oligarchs
Italy seeks exemption to sell luxury goods to Russia today!
No one blinked as Putin murdered Magnitsky, poisoned Navalny
Ukraine's blood is on all hands
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The history & legacy of Kotak, a story of people, values & aspiration.
Sharing this article, written when I was 8 yrs old, by Sidney Pinto. A pioneer of merchant banking in India, he was the lesser known of 3 founders, the other two are recognised by the eponymous institution!
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Thank you Anand. Kabaddi has brought immense joy to our family, as it surely has to millions of families around India.
@PuneriPaltan
is a source of pride and joy for us. We will cherish this moment and keep investing in Kabaddi.
When I conceived the idea of the ProKabaddi league over a decade ago, it was a hard task to find people to take ownership of a franchise. Many thought it was a wild idea, despite the success of the IPL. They felt Kabaddi was too niche a sport to gain any widespread viewership.…
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When Trump supporters rowdily entered the US capitol, Twitter banned Trump. The Taliban violently overthrows a government, and now gets to speak!
A handful of unaccountable people have divine, discretionary power to silence or open-mic anyone, anywhere.
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75 years of free India. Our remarkable nation. Immense ecological, linguistic, artistic, culinary & ethnic diversity.
The worlds fastest growing major economy & 6th largest economy. Top class big companies & blossoming startups.
A thread on India at 75 ⬇️
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Scenario A: invest in the US S&P 500 index at peak of 1,550 in year 2000. Today 3,650.
Scenario B: invest in a 4% interest bond. Today 3,675!
In the most advanced, safest stock market - entering at an overpriced valuation may not pay off, even in the long run!
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India has more than 420 companies each with a market value of $1 billion or higher (Rs. 8,000 crore)
40% of these stocks quintupled in value over the last decade. The highest concentration of private sector success stories in the emerging world.
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As a history major who did an MBA and is now working in finance, I’m proud of my education.
To people mocking the new RBI Guv’s credentials - History is a vastly important discipline. Teaches us about our past - mistakes, achievements, patterns, human nature. I wish him the best
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Congratulations to
@JaipurPanthers
and
@juniorbachchan
for an outstanding season of Kabaddi. Well deserved champions. I am sure
@PuneriPaltan
will be back even stronger next year!
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Correction: RIL is slightly bigger than Kuaishou, but the point still stands!
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Investment vs Expense. Person A buys a new $800 iPhone every year since it’s launch in 2007. Person B instead puts $800 into Apple stock and reinvests dividends.
In 2020, Person A has 1 working iPhone and 12 antique ones. Person B has $160,000 of stock.
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This is India’s moment in history! Economics, demographics and geopolitics are all aligned for us to pursue transformative growth. I am excited for the future.
What will be 🇮🇳's future in NXT10 years?
@jay_kotakone
Co-Head at
@kotak811
, said, “In the past 200-300 years, countries like 🇬🇧🇺🇸🇩🇪 had a moment where everything came together & produced exceptional growth. I think, 🇮🇳 is that moment right now.”
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Green Shoots - higher testing is the reason for more positive coronavirus cases in India (700% increase in testing in 1 month) .
Percentage of positives per test has dropped significantly - from 5.8% to 3.4%. For context, this number is 16.5% in America.
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The global media obsession with Covid “cases” is puzzling. The correct measure has to be hospitalizations & deaths. Let’s set aside rhetoric & opinions, and look at simple, google-accessible data. A thread.
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These Olympics will inspire our youth. Paris 2024, India has to gun for 20 medals, 5 golds. The juggernaut has awoken. We can do it.
Imagine how this would feel:
2024🥇🥇🥇🥇🥇🥈🥈🥈🥈🥈🥈🥉🥉🥉🥉🥉🥉🥉🥉🥉
India’s 🇮🇳 Olympics Medals (by editions)
1896🥈🥈
1928🥇
1932🥇
1936🥇
1948🥇
1952🥇🥉
1956🥇
1960🥈
1964🥇
1968🥉
1972🥉
1980🥇
1996🥉
2000🥉
2004🥈
2008🥇🥉🥉
2012🥈🥈🥉🥉🥉🥉
2016🥈🥉
2021🥇🥈🥈🥉🥉🥉🥉
Best 2 weeks, these in our Olympics History
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There is also enough anecdotal evidence from doctors and hospitals here in Mumbai that the situation on-ground is improving. However, that is not a reason to let down our guard.
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Silicon Valley Bank is a US bank whose stock price is down 75% in TWO days, over 90% off life peak. High Interest rates caused bond investments to lose value, forcing asset sale for liquidity.
SVB has $170 billion in deposits. 50% of US startups have money at SVB. Alarming?
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“We will lead not by the example of our power, but by the power of our example.”
This Biden speech is Presidential. Hopeful for better times.
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Overcoming bouncers, sledging, injuries, racism and unethical conduct, Team India makes our nation proud. Test Cricket reigns supreme.
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China will have 70,000 km of high speed rail by 2035. India currently has 0 km, instead we have 70,000 opinion pieces on the farmers protests.
As a society, we must find consensus on these kinds of issues if we ever want to progress. Divided we fall.
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Trump might be rightly angry about China's disproportionate influence at the WHO. China contributed ~$80 million, 10% as much as America, even less than tiny Norway. In terms of voluntary amount contributed above mandate, China is negligible.
Value for money, the Chinese Way!
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Walmart stock has performed better than Amazon over five years cumulatively (42% return vs 37%)!
In 2022, year to date, Walmart is profitable (+$5 bn), Amazon has swung to a loss (-$3 bn).
Despite Covid & ubiquitous use of e-commerce - the old world strikes back?
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Anecdotal evidence: I know ~50 people in Mumbai that have got covid this week. Spreading like wildfire.
However - Zero of them in the hospital. Symptoms mild or non-existent. Almost all are vaccinated
Still, it’s wise to remain cautious.
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Inflation in India has been under 6% for 3 years. RBI now predicts that it will stay below 4%.
Credit to policy makers and regulators for appropriate domestic action and harnessing of global tailwinds to tame a difficult beast that has destroyed many an emerging economy.
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In the modern tech-enabled era, a competent, motivated team of ten can easily outperform a thousand strong corporate division.
Adding headcount without fixing culture is like enlisting more soldiers, without training or weaponry!
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Age of Empires 2 in the Financial Times. $200,000 tournament prize-pool for a 23 yr old game! Cumulative annual prize ~$1 million. Plus subscriber & ad revenue from content platforms. E-sports works!
@TheViperAOE
&
@JorDan_AoE
in the FT, of all places :)
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Goldman Sachs got it wrong? Shocker.
Goldman Sachs predicts that England will win its first major tournament in 55 years, based on a probability model using 6,000 matches
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CHAMPIONS of
@ProKabaddi
.
@PuneriPaltan
Proud of our young lions. 6 of our 8 are homegrown. Trained at Yuva Paltan academy.
The most ever points in a season, the most wins & least losses, the largest net points differential. The best defence in the history of PKL.
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Another Made in China special. Build a $15 billion business to educate children online.
Watch it evaporate overnight when authoritarian, unaccountable govt declares - companies teaching school curriculum cant go public, raise capital or make profit!
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Regulation of crypto is urgently needed in India. We’re surrounded by ads, WhatsApps & fake news about quick money-making or cashback. Many are investing without understanding.
There are no rigorous controls on money laundering, forex or illegal payments. This could blow up.
This would be highly amusing if it wasn’t so unethical &, in fact, dangerous. Someone saw this online & alerted me. I need to make people aware that this is completely fabricated & fraudulent. Takes fake news to a new level. Ironically, I’ve not invested a single rupee in cryptos
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@sm63
Of course India still has a journey to get to where US is. But the relative trajectory is clear now.
Over the past 5 years, the US is arguably worse in absolute terms (quality of life wise). India is better.
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1. Low cost mobile data (5G/4G)
2. Affordable smartphones
3. Identity for all (Aadhar)
4. Democratised payments (UPI)
5. Digital Mindset Shift (Covid/DeMon)
Five foundational platforms. Each alone would be special. stacked atop of one another, it’s remarkable. Only in India!
When asked about the future of the fintech industry,
@jay_kotakone
said, “🇮🇳 is the first country which has 5 segments layered on each other:
📞 Telecom for all
📱 Cheap Smartphones for all
▶️ Identity for all
💲 Democratised Payments
🧠 Mindset Shift”
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As we debate whether Fed will hike rates from 25 bps or 50 bps in March, the Russian central bank has hiked interest rates by 1050 bps in a single day, from 9.5% to 20%! Catastrophic for their economy
Russia’s currency, the Rouble, has crashed 40%
Financial markets are ruthless
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Also, this is not criticism. India has done a great job with 400 million vaccine doses administered. But our population denominator is large - and the virus still has over 1 billion non/partially vaccinated people to mutate through and keep spreading.
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