This week for ⁦@ForeignPolicy⁩ I discuss India’s difficult choices after Trump’s tariffs. It won’t turn on Russia, but not divesting itself from Russia could bring major economic pain. I offer my thoughts on Delhi’s next possible policy steps.

RT @dawnnewsenglish: The Trump administration’s sudden outreach to Pakistan has raised eyebrows in Washington, New Delhi, and beyond. @Mich….

This may not be the only explanation, but it’s certainly worth noting as a factor. Sometimes with unconventional leaders, unconventional explanations can best explain their actions and decisions.

Why has Trump penalized India but not China for Russian oil imports? Here I argue Trump might’ve been aggrieved: Upset India didn’t let him claim credit for a role in the India-Pak ceasefire, and upset with how he was treated by Modi during a long call.

This is the resilience of US-India relations on prime display, and which is now being tested more than at any other time over the last 20 years of the current strategic partnership.

Over the last few weeks, a period of U.S.-India crisis, we’ve seen:.-The launch of a new U.S.-India satellite.-A U.S.-India counterterrorism cooperation achievement w/US designation of TRF.-FBI arrests Khalistan backers wanted by India.-Top NSC official in Delhi for IMEC summit.

RT @CNBCTV18News: 'US wants India to make concessions & India has made its stand clear, it could be difficult to come back on the negotiati….

With Trump’s new executive order, India—which has increased its imports of US goods (including energy) and invested in the US economy at rates achieved by few other nations in recent years—now faces the prospect of 50% US tariffs.

Who would have imagined, just six months after Trump’s return, that the trend lines of India’s relationship with Canada would be more positive than those of India’s relationship with the US?.

RT @PTI_News: VIDEO | On US President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, South-Asia Analyst Michael Kugelman (@MichaelKugelman) says, “President T….

Three key anniversaries today of events that continue to reverberate politically. August 5, 2024: A mass movement topples Sheikh Hasina. August 5, 2023: Imran Khan is arrested and jailed. August 5, 2019: India revokes the special autonomous status of Jammu and Kashmir.

RT @IndiaToday: New Delhi slams Donald Trump’s threat of ‘substantial’ tariff hikes. Here's what @MichaelKugelman, South-Asia analyst, said….

True, Trump also wants India to buy (even) more (and pricier) American oil. In 2021, before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, India was actually the top destination for American oil. India ramped up Russian oil imports post-invasion. But don’t overlook the pique-at-Putin factor.

If Putin were not ignoring Trump’s calls to stop waging war in Ukraine, Trump likely would not be going after India so hard for buying Russian oil. He’s clearly taking his frustration with Putin out on India.

An overlooked driver of unexpected resurgence in US-Pakistan ties may be Pakistan’s mediating role w/Iran. Munir likely pitched this in meeting w/Trump. Was 1st item mentioned in Rubio-Dar call readout. Much recent high-level Pakistan-Iran engagement, pre & post Iran-Israel war.

Amid a worsening US-India malaise, it’s worth remembering that there is no US ambassador in New Delhi and no confirmed assistant secretary of state for South Asia in DC. This isn’t unusual early in an administration, but it’s an especially significant gap in the current moment.

Certainly, the US and India could still strike a deal. It’s not August 1 yet. Even a later deal is possible. But India has already made concessions (on tariffs but also on broader trade and immigration issues), and it’s hard to imagine it can afford politically to make any more.

FWIW this sounds like another case of the Trump administration, in all its commercial zeal, putting the cart before the horse w/Pakistan-much like with crypto and critical minerals. Many Qs about these reserves, including re security, tech, infrastructure needed to access them.

Trump announces the US and Pakistan have inked a deal to develop Pakistan’s “massive oil reserves.”.In recent weeks, Pakistan has played up what it describes as its growing estimates of oil reserves.

New Delhi had projected confidence & optimism about ties w/US as Trump prepared to return to power. Makes sense; they were solid during Trump 1.0. And yet, few countries’ relations w/Washington have been as deleteriously affected by Trump’s truculent transactionalism as India’s.