Daniel de Kadt
@dandekadt
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Social and data science at @LSEnews Democracy, behaviour, meta-science, 🇿🇦🇺🇲 Won't reply to anonymous profiles.
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Joined April 2022
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Out today in
#OpenAccess
, my paper with
@AdaJKanu
and
@melissaleesands
that tells the story of South African electoral and party politics post
#Marikana
.
A brief thread about Marikana, our findings, and our discipline.
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I'm in my late 30s and still an "assistant," while my peers in the real world have sweet titles. Academia needs some title inflation.
A modest proposal:
Assistant Professor ➡️ Professor
Associate Professor ➡️ Principal Professor
Full Professor ➡️ Vice President Professoring
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People considering econ PhDs really should consider polisci PhD programs too.
You get to do pretty much the same work but get paid a lot less. Pretty good deal tbth
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Idk it just feels weird to run (no consent) experiments on probably the most important process in a person's professional life.
Wow.
(It's not clear that the boost to downstream outcomes like flyouts could hold in long-run equilibrium, or that added visibility really is the mechanism driving it. But still, pretty striking, QED!)
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I think:
1. RCTs are an incredibly important social scientific tool.
2. We have over-indexed on RCTs (vs. obs. work) in the last 15 years.
3. RCTs are not going to solve "poverty".
4. Social scientists need to be MUCH more careful and honest about messing with people's lives.
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At some point early in my PhD I learned:
a. I was not as clever as I thought I was;
b. I knew and understood much less about the world than I thought I did;
c. That other people are smart and worth listening to;
d. That my opinions are not very important.
Good lessons, all.
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Another example is that we pathologise academia and pretend that it is a uniquely awful career choice.
It's not. It's a career with lots of good things and lots of bad things, basically like every other career. I promise that a bunch of these dynamics play out in industry too.
Academic Stockholm Syndrome is far too real.
Let's call out some of the lies told by the academic system that erode its participants' self-worth.
Let's call out the lies so folks can make informed choices, not fearful ones.
8 instances of
#academicstockholmsyndrome
(a 🧵)
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You don't have to agree with these students' protests - or even think they are acceptable - to know that deploying violent police action against them is totally unacceptable.
Universities are *for students*. Get your police off our campuses if they can't control themselves.
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New game: QJE or The Bible
The wordcloud of names of the authors of the published articles in top-5 journals between 2005 and 2020.
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I'm curious about what separates hyper-productive academics (multiple papers in a year, multiple books before tenure) from the rest of us.
I find the academic production function very opaque, so I'm curious about people's self-reflections.
If you're an academic, what do you consider/find to be the biggest challenge for your research productivity?
Please add more ideas below, this is obviously limited.
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After an incredibly enjoyable 1.5 years in industry I've now taken up a position at
@MethodologyLSE
with a focus on causal inference and applied quantitative methodology.
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I'm in an academic job and it's pretty good. I have great colleagues, a nice office, a lot of intellectual and time freedom, and I get to teach great students.
But I don't get paid as much as I'd like, I have to deal with rejection, and lots of mental health suff. Kinda sucks.
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It's "we need more description" time on social science twitter again.
Everyone is (rightly) grumpy that there is premium placed on causal research (does X cause Y?) at the expense of description (tell me about Y).
We all complain, nothing happens, and the cycle continues.🧵
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I think maybe one underappreciated reason why so few people are having kids is that there's just way more fun stuff to do as a 20-/30-/40-something these days than 30+ years ago.
Everyone talks about the cost of children, less about how much the outside options have changed.
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We all know social science is in the he midst of a "credibility/replication/reproducibility crisis."
Lots of very good and important work being done in this space. It often has "depressing" implications: look how bad everything is!
A brief🧵to reframe this conversation...
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Pro tip: take any applied social science paper from the 1990-2005 and you'll find lots of methodological (and often epistemological) problems.
And yes, shockingly this is also true of Economics.
Now ask yourself why you're trawling through the work of one specific person.
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Gonna start referring to academia as "alt-industry" and see how y'all like it
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Great question. Here's how I try to approach an observational causal inference project.
Goal is to fail fast if the project isn't feasible.
0. Assume you have a well defined question (at minimum a D and Y), a simple theory (how D and Y are connected), and a plausible design.
Any advice on "starting" a research project?
I have a hard time following through after coming up with a question and a potential research design. It feels analogous to staring at a blank page when you're supposed to be writing.
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This is why I always plug in my laptop before running reg y x
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Just opened the latest edition of the American Economics Review and I must say I am impressed.
Many of the articles use similar methods to what you would find in top political science journals, with a similar level of rigour!
Polisci folks, I really recommend you have a look!
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When I teach modern diff-in-diff I intro
@xuyiqing
and co-authors' {fect} package in R.
I am routinely struck by what a triumph of practical user-friendly design it is. If you aspire to make applied causal inf. packages in R, this is the standard!
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@ryancbriggs
Hmmm. I agree with the spirit of this, but as someone who was born in the >97th income percentile of a middle income country, you're underestimating the importance of within-country inequality - it's more than a rounding error.
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Comparativist:
> travel to country
> gain access to archive
> laboriously scan damaged hardcopy maps
> painstakingly georeference scans
> read into R
> battle with projections and errors
Americanist:
> install.packages('tigris')
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Grad school was the most awesome 6 years of my life - the freedom, the people, the place, the discovery, etc.
It was also a series of miserable and defeating experiences, lost financial opportunities, and multiple severe mental health crises.
It's not one thing...
People who actually enjoyed their PhD experience should speak up, so many downers on this site. Possibly the best 6 years of my life.
#philosophy
#academia
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🚨Today
@joachim_wehner
and celebrate the launch of a digitized archive of South African Governmental Publications with
@LSELibrary
. 🚨
- Census publications, 1866 - 1968
- Educational reports, 1882 – 1986
- Maps/incidentals
NEW: South African Governmental Publications (1866 to 1986). Digitised to support
@joachim_wehner
's and
@dandekadt
's research into voting rights and voter suppression in colonial South Africa.
🔗
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Sometimes I feel like quantitative social science is triangulating on the general finding that "nothing ever affects anything."
Which can't be right -- look around you! -- and suggests that we are perhaps systematically asking the wrong questions, maybe with the wrong methods.
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Yes UK salaries aren't the best, UK academia has bureaucratic nonsense, and yes lots to dislike about living in the UK atm, but just FYI I finished teaching two weeks ago and I won't be teaching again until... October 🙂🙃🙂
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When I started grad school I used Stata, and the innovators said I had to learn R. When I learned R it was base R, and the innovators said I had to learn tidyverse. So I learned tidyverse, and the innovators said go back to base R.
So what I'm saying is, please stop innovating.
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GPT is very impressive and will change the way schools, universities, and many jobs work, but kids have had the power to automate this particular task for... ~40 years?
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Semi-pro tip for students: If you have the chance to take a class in causal inference, do.
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I'm proud of this paper. Quite touching to see the APSR use the famous photograph of Mgcineni Noki for the issue cover.
To learn more about Marikana, I encourage you to watch:
And here's a thread about the paper and polisci:
What are the electoral consequences of democratic governments using violence against their citizens?
@dandekadt
,
@AdaJKanu
, &
@melissaleesands
demonstrate how & and when voters hold incumbents electorally responsible.
#APSRNewIssue
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What I want is a book of interviews with academics who are not wildly successful.
Daron Acemoğlu and David Card on undergraduate vs. graduate research assistants:
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My feed is full of economists humble-bragging about how badly they did in grad school classes.
So, where are all the people who did well in these classes? Show yourselves pls.
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I poked a hornets nest, so I will just make one final point.
Field research is transactional. We manipulate things because it buys us something. We create consequences for real people, and we extract value without having to deal with the consequences ourselves.
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I've heard multiple stories of APs being told they must publish multiple books plus double-digit papers if they want tenure.
Are we surprised people are fabricating data, p-hacking, HARKing, exploiting non-co-authoring RAs, etc.?
"Science" lost long ago to hierarchy & prestige.
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The core problem - 75% of data are duplicates - came from a merge using non-unique identifiers.
Gonna use this to shill for one of my very favourite R packages - {tidylog}.
If you're doing data processing within tidyverse, use this package! It's both effortless and brilliant.
At our first Replication Games in Oslo, Montero (2022,
@JPolEcon
, ) was assigned to
@AndersKjelsrud
,
@kotsadam
and
@olerogeberg
(2023).
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That you apparently need 11 publications to get hired as an assistant professor at a "decent state university" in Psychology is a nice insight into some of the major problems with Psychology as a discipline.
A little rant about American universities, in the light on the recent Congressional testimony debacle:
Today I learned that Harvard President Claudine Gay seems to have published only 11 peer-reviewed journal papers in her entire academic career.
'So what?', you might ask.
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Hilarious meta-note on this whole conversation is that there's a (v nice) causal inference paper by
@orgRem
demonstrating that startups which A/B test tend to do better than those that don't.
@SolomonMg
@tbarrios2
yes. which is why i am successful at startups. don’t really believe in A/B w very rare exceptions.
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Yes, and the research you see in grad school is also the "finished product." It's top 1% in quality, and at the end of the production process.
It makes grad students a brutal audience, but it also makes you feel helpless because you have an improper benchmark for your own work.
Relatedly: The research people learn of early in grad school is almost exclusively from the top 1% in quality.
Partly why second-year Ph.D. students are a brutal audience—they are comparing the random paper they are seeing to the top 50 ever.
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Something quite interesting is that people seem to think the "ethical outrage" at the Twitter study is *because* economists were the subjects.
No. I posted about the study is that it is, imo, *yet another example* of social scientists (often econs) not taking ethics seriously.
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Students are v surprised when they learn that 90% of what I know about statistics (which is not much tbf) I learned on twitter
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At this rate Josh Angrist is going to have to be president of every American university
While looking at Gay's important 2001 paper, I became skeptical of the whole research approach.
I am not a political scientist, and it is possible that I am mistaken. If I am not mistaken, it is such an obviously flawed method, that I don't understand why the paper could pass
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Don't sleep on the symbolism of a masked man in military attire "arresting" a philosophy professor on a university campus for engaging in peaceful protest.
Noelle McAfee, the chair of the philosophy department at Emory University in Atlanta, was arrested during a pro-Palestine protest on campus.
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There's an ongoing convo about our failure to support and keep women in academia.
A perfectly poetic response: loads of academic men tweeting about how having kids in grad school/on the tenure track wasn't really so hard for them.
Sometimes you should just... not tweet.
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Academics (iykyk): Point estimation is dumb. Interval estimation is where it's at.
Also academics: We should literally rank-order people (grades, PhD admissions, job market letters).
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Controversial take: Academic Twitter has lots of good bits but I also suspect it's also been really bad for a lot of academics' mental health (like, it seems, most social media is for most people). But we're definitely addicted to it.
Maybe that's just my experience though.
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@maiamindel
Looking forward to the 25 minute long black-and-white scene where they offer a passionate defence of settler mortality as an instrument in the face of increasing scrutiny
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Just disgusting behaviour. Using a tazer on a person who is handcuffed, lying on the ground while being knelt on, and not even visibly resisting.
In the middle of a University campus.
American police are brutal, violent, and out of control. Something we already knew, of course.
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@GaribaldoValdez
Gotta keep track of that stuff somewhere, because your promotions committee is going to want every little detail.
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Remember folks, this type of gross public racism is just a natural response to DEI programs at universities.
As your silver-haired Maverick pilots retire, meet his new replacement...
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Lmao all these economists finally getting on board with R-squared after forcing generations of young scholars to waste money on expensive Stata-squared licenses
This is a common misconception I see a lot in my intro econometrics class. To detect causality in regressions you actually need to look at the *adjusted* R-squared, since the regular R-squared always increases with more controls. Hope this helps!
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All my future paper titles:
"...: Evidence Not From the United States."
Mentioning a non-US country in the title of the paper reduces follow-on interest (experimental evidence)
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But most fundamentally, we need to move away from a career model where we simultaneously incentivise hyper-productive "innovation," and also being "right."
The two are basically incompatible imo, and in combination lead to scientific stagnation and reproducing "bad science."
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@profspur
Ok cool so you do accept that Spurs players are/have been guilty of much worse systematic behaviours?
Honestly, whatever you think of Benjamin White's shenanigans, it's far from (a) a priority and (b) something Spurs should feel hard done by. All of this reads like salt.
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Actually still can't believe that at the end of this month
@LSEnews
is going to dock me 50% of my pay (for who knows how long) for not doing ~5 days worth of marking.
Class warfare is actually wild.
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@Adamfinkel0
@shapiro_stuart
This feels too close to a Likert professor scale:
Very professor
Somewhat professor
Neither professor nor not professor
Somewhat not professor
Very not professor
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I predict a dramatic increase in submissions of merely descriptive papers to the APSR from June 1 2024.
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Voter suppression is widespread.
Joachim Wehner and I show how three "non-racial" laws passed in the Cape of Good Hope in the 1890s disenfranchised thousands of Black & mixed-race people, despite a formally non-racial all-male qualified franchise.
Paper:
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As scientists we often internalize this idea that we are "finding truth."
Consequently we condition our self-worth on being "right."
This is the wrong way to think about scientists' role! Science is all about being repeatedly wrong, but hopefully a little less wrong each time.
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These can all be true at once:
1. People shouldn't critique papers without reading them carefully.
2. Authors should be held accountable for poor choices viz framing, citations, engagement, etc.
3. Junior authors deserve more protection, especially from senior faculty.
In July 2018, I first came across a paper called “The Sad Truth About Happiness Scales” by Tim Bond and Kevin Lang. My heart sank when I read it (as did that of others, possibly including
@ImranRasul3
). 1/n
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@Andrew___Baker
I personally make all my students use wax tablets in class. If it was good enough for Plato, it's good enough for them.
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Keith was one of the best people in polisci. I never knew him as well as I would have liked, but he was kind, generous, honest, funny, humble, and, least important, a great and curious scholar. His death is a theft, and leaves many voids, including in the African pol community.
In Memoriam – Keith Weghorst
It is with our deepest regrets we convey that V-Dem Institute Associate Professor Keith Weghorst passed away in leukemia on March 30th, 2023.
Our warmest thoughts and heartfelt sympathies are with his family.
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@kbguzzo
Shortly after we lost sight of the fact that journal/book publications should happen because you have a research idea worth communicating to a wider audience, rather than to add another bean to satisfy the bean-counters making promotion and hiring decisions based on a 2-page CV?
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I'm entirely biased, but there are very few social scientists routinely designing experiments and measures that are simultaneously this creative and this important.
In this particular study,
@melissaleesands
and
@brycejdietrich
diagnose racial avoidance on city streets.
New in
@NatureHumBehav
by
@melissaleesands
+
@brycejdietrich
, experiments in two well-known New York City neighborhoods use video to explore whether pedestrians physically avoid young Black men more than young White men. Our coverage, by
@cmerref
:
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For background, everyone should read Gerring's 2012 paper "Mere Description."
Though I don't agree with all of it, it's a very useful conceptual starting point for discussions of the role, value, and status of description in the social sciences.
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Cheistha was in my class, a great student who always had smart things to say, and with an interesting and promising PhD research agenda.
We had a chat on Thursday during seminar, after which I (we?) cycled home. Five days later this happened. Just an awful, devastating tragedy.
Devastating for all involved - I didn't know Cheistha but she seems an incredibly talented person and a massive loss to the school.
Tragic, bizarre, and rage inducing that we cannot design a city where it is safe to simply cycle home
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Depressing thread, and I'd say misguided.
About 150 years ago accessible publicly provided education simply did not exist in most parts of the world, including the UK and USA.
If you teach at any level you contribute to maybe the greatest revolutionary human achievement ever.
I've said before that I think that most academics doing similar jobs to me are *de facto* conservatives. A short thread on what I mean by this.
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Someone should write 'Titles,' a paper about how economists come up with paper titles.
The financial success of films in different markets is strongly influenced by their alignment with the traditional folklore, ingrained cultural narratives, and core values of each society, from Stelios Michalopoulos and Christopher Rauh
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Something that happens when you create a scientific culture that rewards (and often requires) hyper-production.
“The fraud isn’t my fault because my grad students, who weren’t coauthors, did literally all of the work” is quite a take.
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Quarterly reminder to social scientists: you don't have to use the word "exploit" in your abstract and paper. In fact, please don't.
(Unless your paper is actually about exploitation or something, then it's ok.)
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Not gonna be popular for this but maybe the prevailing wage for academics is too high
Why are we always arguing about the
#academic
job market?
The huge mismatch between the number of good academic jobs and the number of job candidates (elite overproduction) has produced a serious jobs crisis.
Here is a really good stuctural-economic analysis of how the academic
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If you believe the findings it does offer an interesting lens into the "meritocracy" of the job market.
But then if you believe the findings it also makes you wonder about the ethics of it all.
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To me it's no surprise that a lot of social science (and many other sciences!) is basically "wrong."
Social science is really hard to do: the ground is constantly shifting under our feet (in context, data availability, and methodology), and we don't know what we don't know!
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What are we doing
Of a cohort of 36 predocs at Yale, 21 already have a Master's
- Europe: 3 LSE, 2 PSE, 1 Cambridge, 1 LMU, 1 UCL, 1 ENSAE, 1 SciencesPo (yours truly)
- US: 3 Yale, 1 Brown, 1 Madison-Wisconsin, 1 Urbana-Champaign
- Canada, Colombia, Shanghai, HK, India: 5
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Arthur (
@arthur_spirling
) encouraging social scientists to remember that even in the era of LLMs and generative AI, simplicity often rules
Our third session featured work exploring the persuasive possibilities of LLMs (
@lpargyle
) and work exploring the use of LMMs for the digitization of historical data (
@bapmiller
).
Now gearing up for a keynote from the inimitable
@arthur_spirling
.
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Today
@LSEnews
announced they will continue to punish striking faculty in a *grossly non-proportional* way, *ad infinitum*.
This means LSE is now one of the most punitive unis in the UK. I hope our new president is watching as trust between faculty and leadership is destroyed.
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And yes, in 5 years time the same will be true of the work from 2005-2020.
We learn things by trial and error. Science is not about being "right," it's just (hopefully) being progressively less wrong.
Progress requires flawed work. It's just hard to see it in the here and now.
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As an applied social science researcher reading all these new methods papers I feel like current best practice is simply "don't do applied social science research."
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I'm getting increasingly annoyed with R's non-backwards-compatibility. Every time I update R some code breaks. Not a huge deal to fix, but it's both frustrating and not great for replicability.
Is this just me being a bad programmer (should I be doing something differently)?
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I think one explanation for why we are so bad at ethical reasoning in social science experiments is that researchers are trained to avoid taking explicit normative positions.
I find this is discouraged in many disciplines, where people want to believe their science is "neutral."
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I do think a problem in academia (social science at least) is that we focus very heavily on outputs, rather than process.
This is true in the training we offer (much of which is reading finished work) and in what we reward in the profession more broadly (counting publications).
Yes, and the research you see in grad school is also the "finished product." It's top 1% in quality, and at the end of the production process.
It makes grad students a brutal audience, but it also makes you feel helpless because you have an improper benchmark for your own work.
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Apparently "the completion of this dissertation would not have been possible without the support of" constitutes plagiarism...
There are some weird cases in here - some of the reused methodology language worries me - but these threads are consistently disingenuous.
Like former Harvard president Claudine Gay, Anderson even stole language from another scholar's acknowledgments, copying phrases and sentences used by Khalilah Shabazz, now a DEI official at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis, to thank her dissertation advisers.
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This whole thread is actually a great advertisement for what causal inference can bring to companies!
Take this idea: "Purple shirt people buy stuff from your store, so target them with ads."
This may not be a *bad* idea (it's probably ok!). But it could be much better. 🧵
SECOND OF ALL, IT DOESN’T FUCKING MATTER. if your analysis shows people who wear purple shirts buy more stuff at your store, it is probably not causal, i.e. the purple shirt isn’t making them spend more. AND YET, if you run ads targeting 🙎♀️, I bet your revenue will 📈
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Anyway, here's the point: Good jobs are good (I've been *really* lucky), and bad jobs are bad. That's as true in tech as it is in industry.
What makes a job good? Well, it's hard to say because different people value and need different stuff. That's kind of the point, really.
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Only had budget for 6 schools (didn't know abt waivers), so ended up with:
Princeton ❌
Yale❌
Duke❌
NYU❌
Stanford ❌
Applied to one other school not because there was much fit (3 of my eventual 4 advisors weren't even on faculty yet) but strictly on vibes:
MIT✔️
PhD Rejections:
Not enough characters to spell them out. First time I applied, I got rejected from all 10 schools I applied for.
Next time I applied, I got rejected from 6/10 I applied for.
PhD Acceptances:
- University of British Columbia
- McGill
- UC Davis
- George Mason
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These are legitimately good jobs for newly minted PhDs -- min. of 2 years, teaching load is very reasonable, lots of encouragement to pursue independent research agendas, and folks tend to end up in good permanent posts.
And we (Methodology and LSE broadly) are nice!
📢 Apply now to be an LSE Fellow!
This is an opportunity to join an outstanding group of social scientists, suited to applicants with a quantitative background and an interest in developing and delivering improved doctoral training.
🔗 | Deadline: 2 June
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Which leads back to our "crisis."
Imo the crisis is *not* a "credibility/replication/reproducibility crisis" at all -- being wrong a lot is the cost of doing science.
The crisis is that scientists - you, me, and everyone else - truly despise being told we are "wrong."
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A common view of the "goal" of science is that it should "incrementally triangulate on the truth."
I think that's basically fair. But it's worth reflecting on what "incrementally" implies - that our science will probably be wrong a *lot.*
Being wrong a lot is actually ok!
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This is one of my wilder thoughts, but I think people working in the "methods" space should be nicer to applied researchers, and less smug.
There are a few standouts who are, and they are all very successful people. Unsurprisingly.
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Starmer's new gov. will have one job: Create growth in a stagnant economy with an ageing population.
"Cutting immigration" undermines one of the few growth levers available: Incredible people want to come here to live and work.
Galling how xenophobic modern British politics is.
My Labour government will cut immigration.
We will expand opportunities for people in Britain, training more UK workers and protecting working conditions.
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A major failure of modern research on Comparative Politics (of young democracies) is how much more ink has been spilled understanding things like "vote buying" and "clientelism" than understanding things like turnout and electoral accountability.
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*randomly* seated, you say?
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Most undergraduates in the humanities and social sciences learn quite a lot of useful and important stuff in their 3/4 years.
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@jt_kerwin
Ok but the LPM lacks the extreme convenience of logit where every coefficient can be trivially interpreted, after exponentiating, as a multiplicative change in the odds ratio.
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Second predoc?
Those are ROOKIE NUMBERS.
I was a predoc for 31 YEARS.
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Please join us on June 7th at
@LSEnews
for our Generative AI in Social Science Research workshop.
You'll hear 6 talks (with Q&A) from researchers actively using Generative AI in their research, plus a keynote address from
@arthur_spirling
.
Register:
📢Check out our "Generative AI in Social Science Research" workshop this June!
Join us for a full-day event showcasing latest research on generative AI in social science research from scholars at
@LSEnews
,
@UniofOxford
,
@BYU
and
@uni_tue
. Register here 👉
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