Brian Rosenwald
@brianros1
Followers
11K
Following
173K
Media
243
Statuses
288K
Author: Talk Radio's America https://t.co/ebMFCIdMA2. Senior Editor @madebyhistory. Scholar @penn. Political Analysis: https://t.co/bjGMvSLZ3m
Philadelphia
Joined May 2010
Hi friends, I am thrilled to announce that my book, Talk Radio's America, is now available for pre-order now. As you may know, pre-orders are crucially important to the success of a book, and I'd very much appreciate it if you might consider pre-ordering. https://t.co/VMXcbYrGec
74
31
211
Yes, a guy who said America deserved 9/11 gets influential Democratic politicians on his show. American extremism isn't just on the right. It's a pervasive national disease.
Hasan Piker platforms terrorists, promotes political violence and does shameless propaganda for murderous authoritarian regimes. So why is he in such good standing with American politicians and progressive media?
8
38
453
So we're comparing Blackburn's underperformance to Van Epp's underperformance? Yes, Democrats didn't nominate a former popular governor who was also the former mayor of Nashville. But every other Republican in the last decade has won #TN07 by at least 12 points.
"Trump did win it by 22, but Marsha Blackburn in 2018 only won the district by half a point. So Matt Van Epps is going to win it by 9 tonight. The lesson to take away from this is Democrats had three State Representatives running, they picked the liberal wingnut."
4
12
43
Before conceding, Aftyn Behn is singing Dolly Parton's 9 to 5 in a rhinestone studded denim outfit
7
34
420
Brown, the Ds in Ohio, and even TX. A swing of roughly 13 points would mean a razor thin margin in both places. Alaska would be similar as well.
Sherrod Brown has got to like the Democratic over-performance in TN tonight, the November returns, and Trump’s problems with the economy.
0
0
1
Here's why people are saying it's a win: it should catalyze Republican retirements, which will make more districts competitive next year, it will also aid Democratic recruiting & fundraising. I'm fine w/calling it a loss that may have beneficial longterm effects fwiw.
We lost in Tennessee tonight. STOP saying this is still a win. NO IT'S NOT. There are no participation trophies fighting Trump. It's win or lose and don't tell me how far we came from the last election. WE LOST. THIS ISN'T ABOUT HOW FAR WE'VE COME OR HOW HARD WE TRIED.
0
0
4
In re: Behn's performance as a candidate, her showing was essentially "replacement-level" for 2025 specials so far. She did 13 pts better than Harris, the exact same average overperformance for Ds in specials this year per @downballotnews
6
31
174
For additional context here, these are the relative turnout levels of each of the congressional special elections we've had this year This race got super nationalized - relative turnout ended up being huge But to me, that makes this the most encouraging special for Ds so far
Identical turnout to 2022, but a completely different universe 13% to the left of 2022 despite midterm-level turnout
4
19
112
Notably, this is Molder’s first engagement with the special election. The more moderate candidate in the neighboring district kept the race at arm’s length
0
5
11
Leave the binary of "did you win" aside: I also think this is a *major* flag for Republicans. Turnout hit 2022 midterm levels, Democrats ran a DSA-esque candidate in a Trump +22 seat, got massively outspent, and then still lost by just 9%. That's really bad for the GOP.
You have someone who's to the left of Zohran Mamdani on policing in a Trump +22 Tennessee district. How exactly did people think that was going to go? That Behn is getting to an R+9 margin (a +13 overperformance) despite all that is...something.
28
176
2K
Right. Back in 2018, there was a competitive SEN race in the state. AND, the Dem came w/in a 1/2 point of winning that CD.
That said, not at midterm turnout is created equal. This version of TN-07 would have cast 242,408 votes in the 2018 midterms. Overall, turnout in Tennessee was 38.6% in 2022 but 54.6% in 2018, a 16-point drop.
1
4
42
Davidson County cast more votes on the Tuesday after Thanksgiving in 2025 than in the regularly scheduled midterm of 2022.
2022 turnout in TN-07 was 180k. We're at 156k with lots still to be counted. Anyone whose analysis of this race includes "but to be sure, Democrats have done well in low-turnout elections" gets exiled to Mars.
1
10
23
I do remember on primary night people saying "oh the least electable of the 4 Ds won the primary." This margin suggests that none of them was winning the election though.
This is when i fucking hate 3rd Way Im a centrist but i don’t understand this . who’s running in this district
0
0
1
But it seems like a reasonable estimate of the what the electorate might look like next year in a much more Democratic environment (at least in the South) than what we saw in 2022. Other places had bluer environments in 2022.
Identical turnout to 2022, but a completely different universe 13% to the left of 2022 despite midterm-level turnout
0
0
2
This would make sense given the Republican investment + the turnout creeping toward midterm level. One reason VA/NJ were better gauges than specials is because of turnout that was more like a midterm. We seem to have gotten that here as well.
It's looking like the Tennessee special election could actually be Democrats' smallest special-election over-performance of 2025. (But still a big one overall, since they've been really big in 2025.)
0
0
2
One lesson of this race imho is we NEED to do opposition research in a primary & surface the inevitable online stuff people said in 2020 before they get nominated.
Any Democrat with a pulse would outperform Kamala Harris. Any Dem would have been a *huge* underdog when the GOP invested so much into a Trump +22 seat. Not a stretch to say the Democrat might've done a bit better if she didn't refuse to disavow Defund The Police in 2025, though
2
1
9
Here's my thought: Mitchell probably gets an extra 3-4 points, but it wouldn't have been enough? But this lesson applies to TXSEN, MESEN, all kinds of House races.
The #tn07 margin creeping closer to double digits is giving centrist Dems an opening to criticize Aftyn Behn and the Dems who hailed her as a model candidate From Third Way: "Each time we nominate a far-left candidate in a swing district ... we set back that cause."
0
1
4
I thought Hurts’ accountability is what stood out most from the first episode.
Hard Knocks reveals that Jalen Hurts was expecting DeVonta to stop on his route instead of running a slant on the big missed opportunity vs. the Bears. Hurts took accountability on the play, told DeVonta to keeping doing what he’s doing. Also took accountability for his fumble.
3
14
471
Our statement from @LanaeErickson, SVP for @TWPolitical, on the special election in #TN07: “The lesson should be clear, yet again, that extreme positions will sink a campaign, and that battleground House seats must have commonsense moderate nominees if Democrats are to have any
3
9
11
I would call this margin not particularly surprising given Democrats' margin in special elections & not really enough to send shockwaves through politics, but still: every county swung to the Ds despite a flawed candidate.
0
0
1
And notably, that was a district that didn't flip in 2006 I believe vs. something like Ossoff's narrow loss. Given that turnout is approaching midterm levels, this should scare any R in a R+15 or less district. Also should prod the DCCC to intervene in primaries imho.
Always appreciate some historical context.
0
1
4