Nathan Gonzales
@nathanlgonzales
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Editor & Publisher of @InsideElections , @RollCall Elections Analyst, ex- @CNN Political Analyst, @PoliticsnStereo founder, Dallas Dragons ex-backup QB. #GoHawks
Washington, DC
Joined June 2009
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Last Seen Profiles
Just to recap, this story is about a candidate polling at about 1% in the Democratic race fighting with someone who is not a candidate.
Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State, has now accused
@TulsiGabbard
, a veteran of the wars she supported, of being a "Russian asset" who is being "groomed" for a third party bid for the presidency, along with others.
This is an insane opinion. Will anyone call her on it?
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CNN's
@ddale8
is a machine.
I'm not sure there is anyone on TV who is more efficient with their words.
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What happens when Republican Members figure out the GOP base likes President Trump more than them?
NEW: McConnell believes Trump committed impeachable offenses, believes the attack on Capitol gives Rs a chance to purge the president
and...
McCarthy has asked colleagues if he should urge Trump to resign, is open to a censure
w
@maggieNYT
>
:
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What if we have marching bands unveil new congressional district lines around the country.
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How many Republicans will intentionally disobey this order, want to be removed, and then boast about it on Twitter?
"Members not wearing as mask will not be admitted to the Floor and Members who fail to wear a mask will be removed from the Floor."
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With a few days to go, I can't figure out whether the 2020 elections were a marathon or a sprint.
But I sure feel like I sprinted a marathon.
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I don't know what disqualifies someone from public office anymore. And that makes me hesitant to declare who can and cannot win a general election six months from now.
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Tell me you're retiring without telling me you're retiring.
Retiring Republican senator Pat Toomey said Trump shouldn't be the GOP nominee in 2024, calling his behavior after the 2020 election "completely unacceptable."
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At about 6:55, I think the President said he cancelled the New Hampshire rally for public health reasons. At the time, the campaign said it was because of the weather.
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A clearly armed white individual approached law enforcement, while people shouted that he shot someone, to the point where he was standing next to the police car...and law enforcement let him walk by.
You'll never convince me the same thing would have happened if he was Black.
Chief of Kenosha Police on last nights triple shooting that took 2 lives.
#kenoshariots
#kenoshaunrest
#wisconsin
#jakeblake
#jacobblake
#kenoshaprotests
@tmj4
#tmj4
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Klobuchar getting extra screening from TSA as she leaves DCA.
I fear for the agents’ lives.
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Sure. Had nothing to do with President Donald J. Trump. Got it.
Why did Democrats win the House in 2018? Rep. Kevin McCarthy says Pennsylvania redistricting, Maine ranked choice voting, ballot harvesting in California, and GOP retirements.
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While graphic and violent, most Republicans have already found ways to dismiss or deflect the Jan. 6 invasion as Antifa, actors in a hoax, or maybe a tiny band of misguided, overzealous Trump supporters. And virtually none of them willing to connect any of this to President Trump
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Just have the kids carry some Trump flags and entry shouldn’t be an issue.
Congresswoman Norton "Calls on Capitol Police to Allow Sledding at Capitol During Expected Snowstorm"
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Narrator: The decision surfaced while the president was locked in a surprisingly competitive race with Joe Biden for Alaska's three electoral votes.
BREAKING: President Trump is exempting Alaska's entire Tongass National Forest from the roadless rule, making more more than 9.3 million acres eligible for logging and other development. It is one of the biggest public lands rollbacks of his presidency.
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Probably the two knee replacements.
Just saw the Cowboys kicker take off his helmet and I think I figured out what's going on...
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If he can't run again, he has no use for the Republican Party. And he'll lose interest in backing primary challengers to maintain control of the GOP.
"The ongoing Republican whisper campaign, according to more than a dozen sources who spoke to CNN, is based on a shared belief that a successful conviction is critical for the future of the Republican party."
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Not defending.
Two things can be true at the same time:
1)China is not a reliable source of information
2)US early response to Coronavirus was inadequate
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The success/failure of Trump's endorsed candidates is a poor litmus test of Trump's influence within the Republican Party because almost all the GOP candidates are running on a Trump message/platform.
This is still Trump's GOP whether his endorsed candidate win or not.
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That’s a dry cleaning run for Scott Pruitt.
Buzz at the US courthouse in DC: Brett Kavanaugh spotted leaving in a black sedan accompanied by four black SUVs with security agents presumed to be Secret Service, per source.
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Yes. Republicans complained about Ossoff's outside contribution while Handel was sustained by GOP outside groups.
Ossoff's big $23m haul is often mentioned. Less mentioned: Handel got millions in ground & air support from a Ryan-affiliated super PAC.
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Reminder to everyone that 70%+ of Republicans on the Hill have never served in the minority.
Some of them don't think it's a big deal. They're in for a rude awakening.
Being in the Senate minority isn't fun but the filibuster gives you some power. Being in the House minority is pretty terrible.
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We’ve only had 100 senators for less than a third of our country’s existence.
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I think Obama win % would have been greater if McCain had picked Lieberman. Palin brought conservative excitement to candidacy that had very little before she was added.
I don't think it would have changed the final result, but I always thought the political downside of McCain picking Lieberman was overstated and the upside understated
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Due to an unfortunate editing choice, it looks like a man is hunting kids in a field in this candidate video at :57
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A complete misunderstanding of the situation by the congressman. President Donald J. Trump is raising the money for Democrats, not ActBlue.
Besides McCarthy's comments, per Playbook, Rep. French Hill..."said he would not vote for any candidate to lead the NRCC unless they've come up with a way to address ActBlue -- the online fundraising platform that funnels millions of dollars to Democrats."
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After all the threats about staying the weekend, they didn’t even stay until 5pm.
HOUSE REPUBLICANS are going home for the weekend. They’ll hold a candidate forum Monday night.
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I get it, but how many normal people talk to former co-workers from 25 years ago?
Mark-Paul Gosselaar hasn’t spoken to his “Saved by the Bell” co-star Dustin Diamond in 25 years
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In 2022, dads voted for GOP candidates by 12 points (54-42 percent) while men without children voted for Republicans by 16 points (57-41 percent). So not only was there a modest 4-point difference, but dads voted more Democratic than men without kids.
ANALYSIS: Not only did Democrats overperform expectations in 2022, particularly in the House, but exit polling data shows that parents didn’t vote all that much differently than voters without children, writes
@nathanlgonzales
.
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The president's final margins in the solidly Republican states are going to surprise some folks.
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NEW bipartisan poll in
#NC09
for
@InsideElections
: McCready over Bishop 46%-42%. w/leaners 49%-44%. Conducted 8/26-28 by
@HarperPolling
&
@claritycampaign
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Dem statewide candidates tend to receive 16-19% of white vote. Jones probably needs 35%+ to win. h/t
@leahaskarinam
@HotlineJosh
might be a good time for Dems to assess whether, or how, they can rally black turnout
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What intelligence reports does the son of a former president, who never worked in the White House, have access to?
Jr: I get to read reports saying that intelligence is saying that Russians may be launching a cyber attack on America. I don’t think so. I imagine that’s our people lying to us…
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Why does someone always say this? It's ridiculous. He's the THIRD incumbent to lose this year out of hundreds who will win.
“No one is safe,” one Dem strategist tells ABC News in response to Crowley loss.
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"Polls don't elect presidents, voters elect presidents."
- DeSantis
Add another line to the Things Losing Candidates Say list.
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People seem to be more concerned about getting mail rather than if the Post Office makes budget.
The
@USPS
is very popular, per new
@MorningConsult
weekly tracking.
ALL ADULTS --
80% favorable
10% unfavorable
DEMOCRATS --
86% favorable
7% unfavorable
REPUBLICANS --
83% favorable
10% unfavorable
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If the President meets with her and learns more about her, there's a non-zero chances she speaks at the Republican convention.
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It's not a Silent Majority.
In 2016, Trump won with less than 50% nationally,
less than 50% in Michigan,
less than 50% in Pennsylvania,
less than 50% in Wisconsin,
less than 50% in Florida,
less than 50% in North Carolina
less than 50% in Arizona
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I bet this is how some people think 150,000,000 general election ballots should be counted....by 9pm Eastern on Election Night.
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Three constants in life:
1) Death
2) Taxes
3) Bowzer from Sha Na Na stumping for Democratic candidates in the final days.
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Kind of amazing that Biden is the fourth president since Tester has been in the Senate, yet it was his first time in the Oval Office.
.
@SenatorTester
had never been in the Oval Office before this morning's meeting. He described the experience to me this afternoon, which included a moment that mentioned Mike Mansfield.
#mtnews
#mtpol
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Retirement/resignation watch: GOP Rep. Joe Barton of Texas, according to K Street sources.
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New DCCC poll in NE02:
Eastman over Bacon 48-47
Biden over Trump 52-41
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Multiple GOP sources believe Gov. Rauner could lose
#ILGov
primary tomorrow night, or at least closer than expected for a challenge to a multi-millionaire incumbent governor.
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I'd offer the lead is less important than an incumbent at 38%.
New
#NCSEN
poll: Sen.
@ThomTillis
(R) led former state Sen.
@CalforNC
Cunningham (D) (April 5-7; 500 LVs; +/- 4.4%):
38% Thom Tillis
34% Cal Cunningham
23% Undecided
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The narrow margins could also cause the networks/cable channels to take longer than usual to call the solid Republican states, instead of doing them just after poll closing.
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This is not an old tweet folks. This is what the president chose to say at this critical moment in our country.
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This is clearly an emerging GOP campaign message: But China
VP Mike Pence, asked by CNN's Wolf Blitzer if the the U.S. was slow in reacting to the coronavirus outbreak: "The reality is we could have been better off if China had been more forthcoming."
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.
@presssec
also said President's congrats to Loomer in Florida was part of a normal course after primaries.
President had 5 tweets or RTs about Loomer last night.
No tweets from the President on the 18 other contested GOP primaries in Florida.
.
@PressSec
tells me President Trump "hasn't done a deep dive" into the anti-Muslim comments made by Laura Loomer and Marjorie Taylor Greene, and maybe hasn't seen them. He has congratulated both for their respective primary wins and called Greene a "future Republican star."
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Can we just start a GoogleSheet and have all the campaigns plug in the numbers from their precinct captains?
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I'd be interested in a Venn diagram comparing people who want Pres. Trump to receive all the credit for the vaccine development and people who refuse to get the vaccine because they believe it's unsafe.
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A win is better than a loss (and the result has an impact on the majority), but the overall lessons from
#NC09
should be the same whether one candidate finishes slightly ahead or behind.
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Another Toss-up goes to the Dems.
13 of 20 Toss-up races called and they've gone 11 D, 3 R.
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A private GOP polling memo, with signs of independents and new voters shifting toward Democrats on the abortion issue, fell into Democratic hands when a binder was left behind at a Greenbier event for GOP Senate chiefs.
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It may not come across on TV, but this is a difficult speech to deliver w/ scattered protestors and counter chants. Tough to keep rhythm.
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Folks....
0 of 14 competitive Senate races called.
3 of 63 competitive House races called.
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I’d like to be the first to mention Chip and Joanna Gaines as potential candidates. Fixing Congress would be their biggest reno job to date.
#FixerUpper
#shiplap
#TX17
Rep. Bill Flores is the fifth House Republican from Texas to announce his retirement in recent weeks
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From April, when Biden suggested President Trump would do what he did today....
This morning, the Trump Campaign is responding:
“Those are the incoherent, conspiracy theory ramblings of a lost candidate who is out of touch with reality. President Trump has been clear that the election will happen on November 3rd.” -
@TimMurtaugh
Comms Director
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Kelly total raised Q2: $12.7 million
GOP Sen. Thom Tillis total raised for the CYCLE: $11.7 million
NEW:
@CaptMarkKelly
raised nearly $12.8 million in the second quarter and finished with nearly $24 million in cash entering the final four months of the
#AZSen
campaign. The average donation was about $44.
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Basically, Republicans don't want to count early ballots early, don't want to use machines to count, want to count tens of millions of paper ballots by hand, but want to know official election results before they go to bed on election nights.
Am I missing something?
Esmeralda County commissioners voted Wednesday to ask their county clerk to switch to paper ballots and hand-counting for all future elections.
Commissioners in Nye County made a similar request in March.
@s_golonka
reports:
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How do Democrats get the high road on Maryland for giving Republicans 12% of the seats in a state where Trump received 34% and Romney 36%?
@nathanlgonzales
And yet the example of Maryland, where Dems went for 7-1 map instead of an 8-0 map, shows they didn't do the same thing. NC GOP (by its own admission) went for the maximum possible gain.
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Folks,
@bridgetbhc
is one of the best reporters I know and one of the nicest people you'll ever meet in DC.
And how she is being treated on
@Twitter
makes me want to quit Twitter.
Hello! Replied to this but posting here as well. To clarify I was referencing this line in the story: "Unlike a gun with a traditional safety, a Glock will fire if the trigger is pulled — making the discovery of an unattended gun in the Capitol complex particularly concerning"
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.....except get out of the race completely right now.
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Even if you don't want to give Pres. Trump credit for anything, he deserves credit for record turnout.
Trump is turning out Republicans as well as Democrats. The latter is a significant difference from 2016.
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Georgia has counted twice before New York has counted once.
I know I'm not the first person to point this out.
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8-year-old pushing the envelope with his Christmas Eve poll questions.
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Now go back home and infect the rest of the country with your irresponsibility.
Gov. Ron DeSantis Says Florida is Shutting Down For Spring Breakers: ‘The Party is Over’
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If Republicans are so confident about winning Hispanic voters then why do they assume Hispanic immigrants = Democratic voters?
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Doug Jones be like:
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Clearly before the game and Dodgers fans aren't exactly known for being on time.
Attendance Friday night was higher than average. 49,074 Friday night vs. averaging 47,761 for home games this year.
BREAKING: Never seen
@Dodgers
stadium so empty as they honor the demonic! 😅💪🏽
Yet thousands of believers are protesting outside!
The message from America has been clearly sent again:
YOU GO WOKE, YOU GO BROKE!
#HoldTheLine
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Email: Democratic candidate Jay Chen drops out of
#CA39
race to help consolidate field and make it easier for a Democrat to finish in the top two.
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Pelosi playing hard ball.
Whoever signed me up for Cat Facts text as a birthday prank, I will do everything I can to find you and when I do I will end you.
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The presidential race was competitive before the verdict and it will be competitive after the verdict.
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And Garland...
#TooSoon
?
Currently missing three SCOTUS justices in the chamber: Thomas, Alito, and RBG
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Rating changes in 24 House races. Updated House projection: Democrats +25-35 seats.
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I think this vote is going to look very different a week from now, let alone a month from now or a year from now.
The more we learn about the attack, the worse it gets.
Meet the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. Team work here w/
@bridgetbhc
@stephanieakin
@HerbNJDC
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I'm not convinced the country wants to come together.
What evidence is there that progressives/liberals want anything to do with Trump supporters and vice versa?
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Maybe they are, maybe they aren't. We may never know what happened.
Sorry to be a buzzkill, guys, but all of the previously-pardoned turkeys are now dead.
@sarahzimm95
has the story.
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If it was Antifa and crisis actors who invaded the Capitol, why didn't President Trump seize the opportunity to squash them? He would have been justified to employ over-the-top military force and he didn't.
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I believe the Obama campaign might have conducted more polling than any campaign in recent history.
Obama on Beto: "What I liked most about his race was that it didn't feel constantly poll-tested. It felt as if he based his statements and his positions on what he believed. And that, you'd like to think, is normally how things work. Sadly it's not."
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By my calculations, that should include approx. 3.5 hours of Jeter not getting to routine ground balls within the range of an average SS.
This is rather amazing. MLB Network starting 64 consecutive hours of Derek Jeter programming tomorrow at 6 a.m. Bob Costas looks back on legendary moments from Jeter’s career throughout the weekend. Coverage includes 13 signature games.
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I think sometimes we forget that Trump was not popular in '16 and won.
For example, Trump had a 41% fav/57% unfav rating in Ohio when he won by 8 points.
In Indiana, Trump was 46% fav/52% unfav and won by 19 points.
Though I realize this is a midterm.
Trump approval
Indiana: 48% approve-51% disapprove
Michigan: 39%-59%
Ohio: 45%-54%
Pennsylvania: 44%-56%
Wisconsin: 42%-58%
There are plenty of other things in the results as well:
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He was the Democratic presidential nominee 35 years ago, and yet is only 13 years older than both likely 2024 nominees.
Happy 90th birthday, Governor Dukakis! 🥳
We’re all grateful for your decades of public service and everything you’ve done for Massachusetts. As a mentor to many, your never-ending wisdom and kindness continue to inspire the the next generation of leaders.
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GOP analyst
@ScottJenningsKY
on CNN: President Trump went from being on offense to being offensive.
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A new Democratic member hiring a GOP chief of staff is not something you see everyday.
So happy to see that the extraordinary new Democratic Congresswoman for Alaska, Mary Peltola, hired the late & honorable Republican Congressman Don Young’s longtime aide & Chief of Staff Alex Ortiz. He’s a great person and such a powerful choice. 🇺🇸!
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Opinion: It's Time for Newspapers to Stop Endorsing Candidates
Me from 4 years ago in
@rollcall
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Democrats don't have to be competitive in places like this in order to win the majority.
#PA18
SOURCE CLOSE TO SPEAKER PAUL RYAN:
“Lamb ran a unique campaign that almost no Democrat on the ballot this fall can replicate. It allowed him to compete here, but it doesn't mean Dems are gonna be competitive in places like this come November.“
#PA18
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Let's get one thing straight about
#KYGOV
tomorrow:
No one "counted out" Beshear or Cameron and a victory for either one of them would not be a surprise.
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Moving from Solid Republican----> Lean Republican.
#KSSen
Rating Change: Pompeo decision makes Kansas seat more vulnerable via
@RollCall
@nathanlgonzales
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