Rob Bowron
@beta_rank_fb
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Econometrician, Chief of the Math Village, Wyomingite, doodler of Beta_Rank. Part of @Sharp_CFB , @12PacRadio . Math is all around us.
Flavortown, OH
Joined July 2016
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@edsbs
Colorado lives up to the regional stereotypes pretty often, but it's still nuts to me that they lived in the Springs and went and did this. This is "Flatlander decides to pet the Buffalo and finds out" level stuff.
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How have we reached the point where Florida, a team that fired their coach, is ready and Utah, a team coming off a Rose Bowl and returning their OC, DC, and QB, is not and the reason is 'its hot?'
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I would buy at least 5 billboards in Austin with my separation money if I was the Kansas AD.
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Fisch might get some players to go with him to Washington, but he really preached "family" to the kids and families he recruited and I don't think they buy that dog and pony show again. We'll see.
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@JimPutmanRLM
@hemantmehta
Buddy you are telling on yourself with the man/girl language choice here. I hope your kids have some positive male role models outside the home.
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Not an upset
Max Duggan led the TCU offense to a shocking upset of Texas in week 9!
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Florida St's absolute disaster of a game at Boston College is flying way under the radar because they won.
Getting lit up by BC's offense is something.
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Did Arizona play better?
No.
Did they make Oklahoma pay for their mistakes?
Yes.
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AI is hilarious
Jim Harbaugh can still coach tomorrow if Mike Pence has the courage
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2024 Beta_Rank Projections for CFB
- Based on prior performance in Beta_Rank, recruiting, and Bill Connelly's returning production
- As always these are a useful starting place where everyone is graded the same
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Arizona broke USC to the point that people are saying Caleb Williams should retire from CFB.
That is the only way to read this.
With National Championship hopes gone, Caleb Williams should consider sitting out the rest of the season.
The Heisman is a long shot, CFB Playoffs are even less likely, and he won’t play in the bowl game.
The risk of playing FAR outweighs the reward. Business decision.
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@RJ_Writes
Red state America would suddenly be very concerned with the rate on capital gains paid by New Yorkers.
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UCLA doing calisthenics during a time out is so Chip Kelly it hurts.
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Like I dunno where Hudson Card transfers next year, but there is no way he is sticking around after watching Ewers shit the bed the last 3 games and not even getting a snap.
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CFB fans going through Connor Stalions venmo is perfect CFB craziness.
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Beta_Rank is updated for the whole season:
- bowls, outside of playoff games, are given a small fraction of full weight
- Oregon and Georgia have to be kicking themselves
- Michigan was the best team with a little more luck, there is always luck
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Well Bob, sure Utah looks good on a football field, but Florida actually flooded the stadium and filled it with real gators and pythons from the Everglades. It's likely going to come down to who can run an air boat the best and you have to feel that favors the local team.
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Arizona fans chanting UofA instead of UArizona...
Robbins paid a lot of money to some marketing firm for you people to just disregard his wishes.
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It's hard to believe, but this USC defense is even worse than the Oklahoma defenses from his tenure. USC would get obliterated in a semi-final.
Stay calm, USC fans.
@Ryan_Kartje
on Lincoln Riley's history of turning October disappointments into Playoff appearances
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@K_Kisner
@RexChapman
It's too bad nobody cared about you enough in your childhood to invest in you becoming a decent person.
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Big overrated: Utah, Cincy
Little overrated: Oregon, Va Tech
Big Underrated: Washington, Wisconsin
Little underrated: A&M, Memphis
USA Today coaches poll:
1-Clemson
2-Ohio St
3-Bama
4-UGA
5-LSU
6-OU
7-Penn St
8-Florida
9-Oregon
10-Notre Dame
11-Auburn
12-Wisconsin
13-Texas A&M
14-Texas
15-Michigan
16-Okla State
17-USC
18-Minnesota
19-UNC
200-Utah
21-UCF
22-Cincinnati
23-Iowa
24-Virginia Tech
25-Iowa State
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I know it's revisionist history, but Fifita beats Mississippi St by 4 possessions.
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Washington projected at
#4
in Beta_Rank on defense coming in.
We talked about 3 great units coming into year. Washington D, Oregon D, and USC O.
Only Washington D has lived up so far.
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Texas is the team that feels dangerous for me. They are likely underrated in the model with the Ewers injury games baked in. That defense is really really good.
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- both Oregon and Georgia had tougher matchups in their losses vs. their strengths and weaknesses and their opponents both had better than expected performances, but Oregon in particular should have had a better game plan and execution; especially on offense
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Bowls need to figure out NIL pretty quickly if they want to get stars to show up. The idea that anyone owes their time for free is deeply unethical.
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Top Ten Power Rank out of Beta_Rank:
Neutral Field vs.
#1
1. Georgia
2. Alabama +7.56
3. Ohio St +11.56
4. Michigan +16.67
5. Wisc +16.67
6. Iowa St +17.06
7. Utah +17.22
8. Ok St +20.11
9. Ole Miss +21.11
10. Wake +21.11
11. Cincy +21.11
19. Oklahoma +24.11
22. Oregon +24.11
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They are coming for women and gays and people of color and some of you are going to be "Good Germans" and even worse some of you are going to collaborate.
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We don't know the long term effects of the novel corona virus for starters.
"We don't know the long term effects of the vaccine" is a uniquely stupid reason to not get vaccinated for a lot of reasons
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I think one of the things CFB fans are going to have to get used to is that teams might play more than once in a season and the prior head to head may not be as predictive as the long serving one off bragging rights culture has assumed.
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Washington Twitter needed this...
BREAKING: Burien (Wash.) Kennedy Catholic WR Jabez Tinae commits to Washington and goes in-depth with
@247Sports
about why committed to the hometown Huskies
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Just make these the jerseys
@ArizonaFBall
will have throwback jersey’s unveiled at homecoming this season!
#BearDown
🐻⬇️🏈 |
#BuildingTheA
🅰️
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People better be careful here. The IRS has a woefully underfunded enforcement arm, but charities that barely do charity work and pay inflated salaries are bread and butter cases.
Pay the players, but involving unwitting 20 year olds in a tax scam is deeply shitty.
In the case of Horns with Heart, there is absolutely zero chance the NIL services provided by an OL to charities as described would be worth $50K. It’s absurd. However, the donors funding the program get a tax deduction in line with the inflated value of said services.
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Really excited for everyone who is really excited about Washington's offense to meet Washington's defense.
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People 65+ only make up 16% of the US population while 63% of cable subscribers are 68+.
Again the Pac-12 is in a pickle, but it's the same pickle everyone is going to be in eventually.
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Arizona's defense got A LOT better when Akina joined the staff. This is a really good DC hire. I think Odum is a good DC too so I would not be surprised to see him retained at SJSU.
Sources: Brent Brennan makes defensive coordinator decision
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Per game metrics are a bad way to evaluate and this is a great example.
Riley is right: USC allowed just 251 yards to Notre Dame last night, the fewest yards — by far — that the Trojans conceded this season
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One of the great problems in American society is the propensity of citizens and, especially, media to decide that there are two sides to an issue and both sides have to be given an equal hearing.
Aaron Rodgers is inviting Travis Kelce to have a vaccine debate.
Rodgers proposes that it be him and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. against Kelce and Anthony Fauci.
(via
@PatMcAfeeShow
)
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I am far less sympathetic to the "innocent players" argument here than in some regular recruiting violation.
Actual innocent players on other teams have been directly impacted by this in achieving their season goals fairly.
This was so brazen and in the open nobody didn't know.
Will Big Ten punish Jim Harbaugh and/or Michigan football?
@byAustinMeek
and I explore Tony Petitti’s dilemma:
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Going to say this so it can be referenced as need be this week:
- Washington won versus Oregon earlier in the year and presents a tough matchup for Oregon's defense that is weaker against the pass
- Oregon has been playing a lot better than Washington since that game
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Rolovich is being informed he’s been terminated for cause
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Ohio St
-5.22 vs. Georgia
-8 vs. Alabama and Texas
-13 vs. Tennessee
-18.5 vs. Miss St
-20.17 vs. Clemson
-20.56 vs. USC and Michigan
-21.72 vs Ole Miss
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We literally just saw Washington fans react like this you weirdo.
Oregon, who is an elite program with the best booster in CFB, has lost their head coach multiple times to other P5 programs and you never see Phil Knight acting this way. Their fans are bummed for a couple days and then move on and focus on the future.
Not sure we’ve ever seen a…
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Some of the very best people in the Washington/Pac-12 space have put together a site bringing their content together and it's very good.
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This is great for CFB.
BREAKING: Star quarterback Cameron Rising announces return to Utah for the '24 season
#GoUtes
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Just in case you are wondering Washington fans...
Colorado's defense is terrible. This is self-inflicted.
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Caleb Williams is also a lockdown corner, a LB that can play on 3rd down, a safety that can cover the slot WR, a run stopping DT, and a pressure machine off the edge.
He's basically a wizard.
"Pac-12 Champions."
@Chip_Patterson
on the expectations of
@USC_FB
with Lincoln Riley AND Caleb Williams now a part of the team.
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Blinkin won the internet.
Shut it down. It's over.
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I will still love College Football, but I kind of won't love College Football after all of this and "this" is only getting started.
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This is insane lol, Arizona could not run block, pass block, stop the run, and finished +5 on turnovers including a fumble returned 87 yards for a TD and I have people making "good faith" arguments they outplayed Oklahoma. Get a grip people.
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2022 Coaching & Development Top 40
Controlling for recruiting, prior Beta_Rank, and Bill Connelly's returning production; who gets the most out of their players?
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Just to be clear, this is not at all what the data said you innumerate dildo.
@DrHoodieMaddog
Couldn’t give two Fs. I lean mostly left, but data clearly proved kids 18 and under were safe….Yet held out of schools. Test scores have plummeted. Suicides have risen. Chaos for parents. Just a sad reality of ignoring data. A price will be paid and hopefully a lesson learned.
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Actually it just hit me. Lol. We've just been watching ESPN and Fox maneuver to keep Apple out of CFB for one more round.
So what was the point of Wetzel’s story today? B1G has already been doing due diligence on PAC-12 teams for a while now. That was known.
Did that story get pushed to force the potential Big 12 candidates to panic?
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I am going to preview Florida-Utah for the Saturday Six and at no point am I going to reach for "it's humid in Florida."
We are just mailing it in here on narratives.
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I don't think you can understate how bad Pete Kwiatkowski's first year at Texas has been.
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A. Chanting "f--k the Mormons" is reprehensible.
B. Chanting "f--k you BYU" rhymes and has syllabic balance without being reprehensible.
It's not that hard to not be an idiot.
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Nearly Final Conference Rankings from Beta_Rank:
1. SEC
2. Big 12
3. Big Ten
4. Pac-12
5. American
6. ACC
7. MW
8. Sun Belt
9. C-USA
10. MAC
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"There are but two parties now: traitors and patriots. And I want hereafter to be ranked with the latter and, I trust, the stronger party."
- Ulysses S. Grant
Cheney: "You were knocked unconscious, is that right?"
Capitol Police officer Caroline Edwards: "Yes, ma'am."
"But then when you regained consciousness, even with the injuries, you returned to duty, is that right?"
"Yes, ma'am...I tried to hold the line at Senate steps."
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Top 40 2021 Offensive Play Efficiency from Beta_Rank
Controlling for opponent, field position, and explosives who puts up the best yards per play on offense.
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It's true for a lot of fanbases, but Washington fans need to get out of the fan bubble a bit more than most.
@beta_rank_fb
False. Our NIL is proven and stamped playa. Mike, Rome, and others were eating all year.
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Penny the Adventure Dog passed away this morning after a great 12 year run. I'll update Beta_Rank on Sunday, but I'll probably be offline for a little bit. Bear with me on questions, complaints, etc..
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Michigan, struggling to beat its peers on the field, decided to turn to one of the most pervasive and egregious cheating scandals in recent memory to have a chance...
If ultimately, the entire book on this Michigan investigation is one school hired a private-investigator firm to find dirt on another school, turned it over to the NCAA because said school is struggling to beat U-M on the field and must resort to sanctions to have a chance ... it…
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Gus Johnson just told Joel Klatt he wasn't getting on Twitter because people are mean on Twitter and that is a sign of a person in mental balance.
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Week 6 Beta_Rank Top 40 Defenses
- Biggest question about UCLA was versus a team that could throw abs they nailed it
- Mike Elko has Duke playing defense
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Pac-12, Big 12, and ACC realignment will be what ever works best for ESPN and Fox.
You don't have to pay attention to reports of where the dog is going on the walk because it's on a leash; it will end up where the owner wants.
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Week 9 Beta_Rank is updated:
- The hottest team in CFB is Kansas St, but they have to prove it against good competition, and oh look they play Texas
- Oregon and Arizona are also surging
- Duke and UNC heading in the wrong direction
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I don't think the faction of Oregon donors that matter approved that "offer."
Cal HC Justin Wilcox was offered the HC role at Oregon after Cristobal's departure. Despite being an Oregon alum who was born in Eugene, he turned it down to stay at Cal. Interesting in hindsight with Oregon headed to the Big Ten and Cal's future uncertain.
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Stanford's defense is making a compelling case for the question,
"What if Oregon and Washington's offenses are not good?"
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Pac-12 game in Vegas is 1000% improvement over Santa Clara. What a terrible idea that was.
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Oregon stops the run really well.
Dear Ryan Grubb,
Dillon Johnson is a really really good running back. Please remember that tonight.
Sincerely,
Husky nation
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2021 Top Offenses in Drive Efficiency from Beta_Rank.
Controlling for opponent, field position, and explosives; who sustained drives and put up points.
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I'll just keep repeating; nobody is going to Duke or Kentucky for free if Sean Miller and Rick Pitino are giving out $100k handshakes.
All that said, I believe Miller and several other high profile coaches will be impacted. My guess is that this is so widespread that individuals and not institutions may be the ones punished. I could also see a scenario where top programs split from NCAA and do their own thing(4)
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Washington's offense was very good last season and should be again, but the defense was awful, particularly in coverage and sustaining a pass rush. If the Huskies make a jump to merely average on defense they could navigate a tough schedule to the top of the Pac-12.
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This is the correct Arizona uniform.
UA
Late '90s
Why?
White helmet with stripes better than more recent blue or red.
Unique helmet stripes match pant and shoulder stripes.
Block numbers.
No piping.
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"Iowa just needs a QB" is my favorite off-season tell.
I have decided my surprise teams for each P5 conference this year:
ACC - Pitt: favorable schedule, upgraded QB
SEC - Missouri: Defense will be great, lost ton of close games. Could be 5-0 when LSU visits.
Big 10 - Iowa: With an actual QB now, can go 10-2.
Big 12: Texas Tech:…
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People are not talking enough about:
- How poorly Oregon graded out on the field last season
- How much Michigan State lost on defense
- How much Texas lost on both sides of the ball
Some high rankings getting tossed around for these teams.
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BYU is playing for a big bowl rather than the playoff, but this could really hurt them even with that.
Cincinnati is going to have a far tougher schedule and BYU skipping this is not going to play well.
SOURCES:
#BYU
turned down the opportunity to play
#Washington
this coming weekend. UDub had reached out yesterday but was told BYU wanted to wait until after the CFP rankings Tuesday to gauge their place. "It's off the table."
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- Washington ended up being the team they were in their data and not some super clutch team that could not be measured, great run and great year, but they were a lot like 2022 TCU
- Ohio St was really really close this year and the defense was fantastic, but the offense fell off
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Arizona's defense currently sits at
#123
in Beta_Rank, worst in the Power 5 and would give up 3.78 more points per game against the same opponent and field position as the next worst P5 defense.
They are 8 points per game worse against same opponent/field position versus 2021.
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I'd pay real dollars to know what kept Leipold from taking the job.
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Bunch of Pac-12 coordinators who had very, very, bad first years where you could easily justify going in another direction:
1. Arizona DC
2. Wazzu OC
3. Wash DC
4. UCLA DC
6. Oregon DC
5. USC DC
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Honestly I think we had a decent run as a species, but clearly it's time for somebody else to step up.
Today, we signed legislation that allows the sale of raw milk within the City's jurisdiction. This will help local vendors sell dairy products at our farmers' markets and stores, and make a big difference for folks who benefit from its nutritional elements.
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Yale's law school would probably like to rescind it's degree. Not because of cancel culture, but because you don't know what the first amendment contains.
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There is a citizenship lesson here, from the people that showed up and did their part and didn't melt like soft serve when they were asked to sacrifice for the good of their communities and country.
Hopefully it's a painful lesson you dork ass loser.
@DrHoodieMaddog
Couldn’t give two Fs. I lean mostly left, but data clearly proved kids 18 and under were safe….Yet held out of schools. Test scores have plummeted. Suicides have risen. Chaos for parents. Just a sad reality of ignoring data. A price will be paid and hopefully a lesson learned.
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If this is to the American instead of the Big 12 I am going to die laughing.
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To convince yourself that every single one of sixty six women who showed up to do their job then chose to engage in sex with a client at work is a remarkable feat of hating women.
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Most Improved Offenses in CFB '22 vs. '21
Some interesting under the radar improvements by some teams outside the limelight. We'll see who keeps it up this season.
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I think people are overestimating the portal and underestimating that the recruiting juggernauts made some less effective coordinator hires this year. Every team this year would be a pretty significant underdog to every champion from 2019-2022.
It's a question that's hovered for 2 months:
Would a Michigan title be tainted, or have the Wolverines rendered it moot?
Also:
What does it mean for two "anti-Stars Matter" teams to reach the title game?
This week's Mailbag:
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