Avery James
@averyfjames
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Polling @EchelonInsights Previously: @ManhattanInst @Ad_Impact All opinions are my own.
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@jaycaspiankang
A lot of Zoomer discourse about race is thinly veiled neuroticism over being in a public space with strangers.
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Impressive to find an idea that both nobody likes and solves no fiscal problems over the next 40 years.
HALEY: SHOULD RAISE RETIREMENT AGE FOR THOSE IN THEIR TWENTIES
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a third flag has just been spotted in Justice Alito's home office
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Biden steadily turning the Ivory Tower into Tammany Hall seems like a bigger deal than the student protests, imo
🚨Holy Moly🚨 We're on course to spend $𝟎.𝟗 𝐭𝐨 $𝟏.𝟒 𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 on debt cancellation. That's more than we spent ALL higher education spending before 2020, and as much as we are on course to appropriate for TOTAL education over the next decade.
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@souljagoytellem
The simpler explanation for Trump's political appeal is McCarthyism, which was quite multiethnic and ultimately anti-statist, unlike fascism.
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I think this is the result of Obama and Boehner debt talks breaking down. Look carefully at when this takes off. Teen girls are way more focused on their future than Teen boys; the Medicare cost curve and taxes it will cost is an immense source of distress.
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The main problem for liberals is Biden is widely seen to be governing badly on the economy, energy/climate, foreign policy and immigration, and the left criticizes him on all four, but the median voter believes he's doing a bad job for at least 3/4 *from the right.*
"Don't punch left" is an increasingly popular progressive social norm. Here's why I believe liberals should not adhere to it.
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@SwannMarcus89
Has there ever been a more powerful regime with less cultural or ideological heft? It's astonishing. Someone got in trouble for saying Russia had admirers because it was Western, but I wonder if the Imperial period picked up slack for the empty husk that is full state socialism.
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YIMBY thought is a gateway drug to center-right views on pensions and health care.
Slowly, you become a supply-sider. Private sector solutions with targeted public spending to specific worst off cases. Then you want Medicare to not crowd out future young worker earnings...
today I learned, that despite voting for democrats my entire life, supporting bernie in the primary, and working for one of the most progressive democrats in the Senate…
I am actually a secret Republican because… I think that we should build housing and clean energy
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This is like verbatim how James Burnham talked about any early WW2 development, and Orwell rightly pointed out it's not a good way to predict things.
There’s no good ending for the Russian people that doesn’t recognize their entire culture and civilizational model has failed, and the country has to be remade along Western lines.
Tough pill to swallow but every other path is towards certain disaster.
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I see more anti-anti-Nixon content on Twitter than ever.
Yet few Americans know Nixon is one of only three presidents to be ranked by a committee of black American political scientists as both anti-racist and white supremacist. It's incredible.
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@MattZeitlin
@MCVictorEremita
I think I made a joke on here once (since deleted) that his Italics Ross bit suggests he'll use increasingly byzantine literary devices to communicate his position to liberals, but I wasn't joking and neither is he.
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People like to dunk on DeSantis as the incoherent culture warrior but this is a far more coherent theory of the student loan debate than Biden has put forth.
Biden believes universities are ripping off young people, but we should also keep federally lending all this money. Why?
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This wasn't even true in the US when unions were powerful in the center-left.
Harry Truman hysterically denounced Taft-Hartley as a "slave labor bill" before it was passed over his veto, because voters were fed up with mass strikes. Talk about rhetorical grandiosity!
US politics would improve if more lefties came up through unions rather than dorm rooms. Unions teach the unromantic nitty gritty view of politics, all about power & tangible gains. Dorm room leftism rewards romanticism & rhetorical grandiosity untethered to material reality.
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Bush's war on terror was a disaster for domestic US politics, including this folk theory among young Democratic party voters that Middle Eastern people must all have very dark skin.
I’m supposed to believe this man’s ancestors are from the Middle East?🤣
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I think the main reason the Biden administration is prioritizing low skill immigration at record levels unseen by a previous GOP admin is because his party believes that's good and should be prioritized over high skill semiconductor visas, which they don't really care about.
There’s a basic incentives problem where many in the GOP don’t actually want an orderly and secure situation, they want chaos they can complain about.
So if exaggerated rhetoric helps smugglers and encourages illegal entry, that’s a win for them.
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Because Dem elites believe the long-drawn low-turnout primary process the media loves is a liability for both parties. And they are correct.
Dem elites are lockstep behind Biden but their voters are not. A rare disconnect from the party establishment and the voters.
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Prop 13 is what killed the CA GOP, mass immigration merely sped it up.
If everyone agrees to build nothing and then I pay nothing in property taxes while becoming a millionaire in my suburban home ... I'd start voting blue too! Who needs Republicans! Tax me whatever! I'm rich!
California used to be a red state.
The GOP won 8 out of the 9 presidential elections during the mid-1900s.
Even in LA, Republicans won 6 out of 10 presidential elections
Then something changed. In 1986, Reagan granted amnesty to millions of illegals, the majority of them
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Pot should be safe, legal, and rare.
An arms race to load up Zoomers with truly unprecedented THC content is not great news for the whole rising anxiety and depression thing.
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this is just what Orwell described about literary nationalists
The Palestine protesters have created a dream Palestine that is almost entirely disconnected from the real place, in which all of their fantasies of a perfect society are realized.
This is a bit like what weebs do with Japan.
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Some say the NYT opinion section should embrace free speech and publish opinions from a diversity of perspectives. I strongly disagree. They should only publish Rep. Pete Stauber (MN-08) until there are twenty lithium mines operating in the United States.
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DeSantis just being some dude with flat no-nonsense demeanor and a wife who is better at the social stuff is some solid "x bf y gf" meme material, truly the meta of retail politics.
We will not allow you to exploit the innocence of our children to advance your agenda.
When you come after our kids, we fight back.
We are no longer silent.
We are united.
We are Mamas for DeSantis.
...and we will elect
@RonDeSantis
President of the United States.
Join our
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Unfortunate, given your party took down a statue of Jefferson dedicated to religious tolerance in the city hall of the largest city in the country.
It makes you wonder though, what did they mean by this?
Let us reflect on how we make history – not erase history.
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@tysonbrody
Might be of interest:
In our latest omnibus, we tested if Americans are identifying the right Kennedy when they are polled on Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the 2024 election. You can read our new blog post on what we found:
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It's so funny to watch smart people keep pretending it was Trump who killed the deal in late January and not Speaker Johnson who said this deal was dead in December when he couldn't get a sit-down with the White House like McCarthy got for the debt ceiling.
Just appalling: A new poll finds that Trump gets far less blame for killing the border deal than Biden does, even though Trump *explicitly* called on Republicans to vote it down.
This is exactly why the GOP did his bidding and sank the deal. 1/
Link:
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If you're a young professional in an expensive metro area, reflexively rejecting raising taxes on everyone for massive public housing *clicks* in a way it doesn't for other sectors. It's intuitive. Private solutions are right in front of your eyes, waiting to be deregulated
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James Carville is worried NPR is excluding men's voices, but he ignores there already is an NPR for the boys.
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"As Canadians bid against each other for an inadequate supply of housing units, they’ve soured on immigration."
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This is a better theory of the case than mocking PhD baristas as woke, good shift of the question to the institutions that are overcapitalized with federal subsidy. Last time this came up in fall, the discourse was dumber.
We have universities with billions sitting in their endowments
If their degrees do not lead to good paying jobs they should help their graduates payoff their student loans
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The other two to have this certification are the man who ended slavery (Abraham Lincoln) and the man who desegregated the military (Harry S Truman).
Some guys are just built different.
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In 1993, David Frum solved the entire campus culture war issue in less than three pages of a book.
Then the president he wrote speeches for, Dubya, foolishly agreed with Pelosi to do the exact opposite by eliminating the cap on grad school loans in 2005.
Now we're all stupider.
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I'm reading like the 4th book now on a 1960s to Trump thesis, and I've noticed writers care about cultural and social science analysis way more than the nuts and bolts of Congress, which ultimately is what American democracy means.
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We could do better.
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my guess is the average self-ID Republican voter under 30 doesn't know what a nazbol is or who Huey Long is.
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@razibkhan
That's why a politician would be for it. If very few people understand it, that's a huge feature and ripe for using to steer patronage.
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Nathan J Robinson is correct; climate change is the top left issue, but none of them ever argue Republicans infiltrated the Democratic party with Critical Natural Gas Theory.
He should start doing it after this, the outfits are a stale bit.
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Weird to blame Buckley and not Jefferson and Jackson for this development. America quietly gave up on being a British-Protestant nation-state when the Hartford convention dissolved, not when National Review was published?
Postwar American conservatism, being dominated by Roman Catholics and Jews, was revolutionary in that it rejected the prewar and predominate principles of core ethnicity (Anglo-Protestant) and confident ethnic conformity (Anglo-conformism). These people viewed the Founding
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One funny development of the Biden years is a liberal columnist will put out an op-ed titled "the culture war has peaked", and then the NYT reports yet another story on how Biden loves doing culture warring via an executive department on education last week or CHIPs today.
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Other stuff ignored by this: Emmigration of cold war industrial workers. GOP became nationally known as conservative; CA has always been progressive state. Green industry.
But you need a critical mass of middle class people with tax concerns for Republicans to win. That ended.
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There is no Republican equivalent of the New York Times, as Tucker Carlson learned.
What's more interesting is there was never a Republican equivalent of Walt Whitman. Partisan gap in creative expression is very old, which =\= intelligence.
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Anyways, as Chris Rufo reminds some of the edge lords creeping in on RW Twitter (including the owner of the website???), white racism is actually still very bad and morally wrong.
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I'm a fan of the DeSantis vs Newsom debate. We need to return to politics being about overambitious nerds, this is gonna be the least insufferable thing on TV since Harris and Pence debated.
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@Empty_America
And it also combines those numbers with totally insane per capita and median income standards, hitting numbers closer to what you see in some Arab petrostates and tiny European tax havens, both orders of magnitude smaller in population.
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It's telling Sanders is one year older than Biden, but he comes off very different in conversation. Quick, shrewd, and engaging. People just age differently.
I asked Bernie Sanders three times whether he thinks Israel's assault on Gaza constitutes a genocide.
Here's what he said.
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If you look at the numbers, it's clear: Central American asylum seekers spend all day refreshing YouTube to see the latest DeSantis speeches before making their decision.
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Immigration and abortion are these hot button issues where the "just leave it to the states" policy is considered a polite reasonable idea and also totally ridiculous in practice.
Eric Adams hammered Florida and Texas over migrants. But he sent asylum-seekers to both.
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Only a couple years after the death of Adolf Hitler, good old reasonable labor union Democrats compared their opponents to, well, you know
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@jessesingal
It's weird to see handwringing that RFK Jr. is going to *introduce* lurid conspiracy theories into center-left politics, if you know where to look...
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@tysonbrody
Yes, we looked further into it and published today, fun custom breaks like these.
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A problem for some of the Twitter New Right types who really really like Pat Buchanan is his bad WW2 views are a bit of a package deal with how he sees mid-century liberal statism and the civil rights revolution.
Pat Buchanan was right about many things, but this book is to RW midwits what "People's History of the United States" is to leftist midwits.
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Comically stupid, but I have to give them credit for putting the money where their mouth is.
They actually did the "I'd suffer a 10 year recession for 1950s aesthetics" meme, didn't just talk about it. In the words of Sarah Palin, no more pussyfooting around.
Tucker could sniff the supermarket bread and then go home.
But a conservative Christian family that bought into right-wing propaganda is now stuck in Russia
They used to complain about LGBT flags, now they have no access to their money and are afraid of criticizing the gov.
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The main thing that curtailed Biden from spending more through reconciliation was the TCJA setting the corporate income tax lower and forcing them to negotiate it up from lower revenue, not Biden signing an executive order making women's sports into a national policy issue lol.
What people who think the Democrats should primarily focus on social issues don't get is that they've already started doing that and it's ruined the party. Their entire economic program is incoherent idiocy specifically because they've subordinated economics to the culture war
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It's a free country, you're allowed to say you hate our allies in South Korea or West Germany because they're not sufficiently democratic and would even kill them if you could.
But why should we all pay taxes for you to sit at a resort for 4 years with these profound ideas?
“Be glad — be grateful — that I’m not just going out and murdering Zionists. I’ve never murdered anyone in my life, and I *hope* to keep it that way.” This is a top leader of
@Columbia
’s encampment, with whom the school is “negotiating,” expanding on his thoughts about how Israel
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thank you for making the GOP look better, it is much appreciated
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Kissinger is a powerful legacy of the American college system. Skepticism of ideology, deep admiration of cosmopolitanism, and a ceaseless faith in a chosen few through a guild system to produce the best ideas against tyranny.
No wonder activists in the 1976 GOP hated his guts!
Unpopular (Lefty) professor opinion:
The dumbest irony in the “the Left is indoctrinating college students” discourse is the thing that pulls them to the Left (of wherever they are) is just explaining the world in a more ideologically neutral way than they are used to.
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@SamAdlerBell
Caring about sophisticated internal motivations is a very Boomer trait, Millennials are returning us to the good old days when the movie was about the good guy murdering everyone with a revolver and saving the girl.
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It's fascinating Democrats got the party's votes together to pass a green energy R&D bill (completely incoherent to 60s stories) but not for an LGBTQ Equality Act, abortion bill, voting rights bill, etc. Defection was small on those, but I suspect more members quietly agreed.
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@wesyang
I think people need to laugh more; it is pretty funny that people who work for the president now think the people in Portlandia are unironically correct about social policy.
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@mattyglesias
The total collapse of mobilized youth interest since then despite no federal policy breakthrough suggests it was in large part about public health authorities refusing to set a deadline for resuming outdoor gatherings.
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Rick Perlstein is a lot like Tucker Carlson in that his earlier writing was genuinely interesting, but he found an audience, and now he says very little you couldn't find some political ideologue yell on Twitter.
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Wow, how did Biden forget to invite the House Speaker for major immigration changes, a topic that has died in the House GOP in 2013 and 2005?
What a goofy mistake. That old Biden, he's so funny.
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"That's an echo chamber"
"You're marginalizing other perspectives"
"This is totalitarianism"
Fine, now it's thirty lithium mines.
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It's weird how little anyone on Twitter brags about Medicare eating up new trillions of dollars in the future. You would think one of the people complaining about neoliberalism would loudly applaud this as a bold strike against austerity.
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A theory I have is the GOP has performed well with white protestant middle class normies forever.
Distinct political economy situations (the non-industrial poverty of the Southern whites, the non-industrial wealth of West Coast and Northeastern gentry whites) explain exceptions.
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I think this is pretty underrated as to why everyone is moving South these days for cheap homes and non-union factory jobs.
After the war, the GOP sought to remake the entire South in the moral image of small farm and manufactures New England.
100 years later, they did.
The Bush family joined the enemy—*became* the enemy. So did the entire WASP political arm (“the Republican Party”).
But that is exactly the point—those fellows down in Texas were not the enemy anymore. They had been remade on WASPish lines.
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NPR is mostly privately backed anyways, let them be the DNC extended universe on their own dime.
Only Whiteness and white people have true agency. Everyone else is their pawn, and if they don't have the right views, it's likely because Whiteness infected them. Asians might think they know what they want but they need NPR to help free them of their false consciousness.
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I think a lot of right-wing and left-wing political commentators ignore that Harvard and the Ives are an ambitious nationalist project; the creation of a leadership class that can legitimately claim to represent the country at large and swiftly execute goals.
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@besttrousers
It's a question on the margins of new spending, not a question of existing stocks of spending.
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Finally, some accountability for William Penn's notorious and little-known service in the Confederate army.
National Park Service is removing statue of William Penn from a Philly park to make the park a "more welcoming, accurate and inclusive experience."
William. Penn.
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As Matt Karp wisely documented, half of House Republican caucus voted to remove all Confederate statues from the U.S. Capitol. It would be fun to see how much or little overlap there was with the Jan 6th elector confirmation, but striking either way.
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It would be good to know how many unaccompanied minors were requesting asylum and what kind of internal immigration enforcement was happening in 2008. Seems like information worth including for the reader!
Here's some history.
The GOP border bill that just passed would repeal many legal protections for migrant kids passed in 2008. That got wide bipartisan support.
I talked to a Senate staffer from that time. This shift captures GOP radicalization:
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In other words, you have to actually tell Biden's people to read Fareed Zakaria and gut the asylum stuff if he doesn't want to lose to Trump. But that's less fun to do than complaining about woke staffers/educated young people in some abstract sense.
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Something interesting in the RCP average is Biden has been consistently polling between 43-45% going back to Nov. 2022.
There is no recent popularity problem for him, he's been doing this the entire time, it's just Trump has now gained as the GOP primary looks to wrap up.
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@mattyglesias
Similar to the GOP and the hard-line right-wing, I'm sure Democrats can take some of the responsibility for this after inviting these people into their ranks of media and activist circles.
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Arguably already in the Democratic party; lots of Democratic voters have a socially conservative opinion on *one or two* things.
But often doesn't cost Dems a ton of votes to ignore it, unless a large enough bloc of Dems hold the opinion and care enough.
There are a lot of social conservatives who believe in populist economic policies and it would be a good idea to have those people a part of a Democratic/left coalition and accept a bit more intra-movement friction on culture issues as a consequence.
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It is honestly impressive Democrats memed the "social security trust fund" into existence despite going pay as you go merely years after being created.
They truly have no higher goal than funneling money to middle class retirees to win elections, I respect the hustle.
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It's interesting anti-immigration politics has grown stronger in the US, but the 90s and 00s concerns over the English language are practically gone.
I haven't seen Trump ever bring it up. Everyone kind of knows it would be ridiculous in the age of the Anglophone internet.
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GOP judges in Alabama believe the government should ban you from using IVF
Dem judges in Indiana believe the government should confiscate your daughter if she identifies as "they/them" and you disagree.
My moderate position is that you can keep your IVF and your daughter.
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@JakeMGrumbach
good take, imo:
Think about it from both perspectives. Almost certainly exploitation played its role. But someone who came on the Mayflower has a radical like Angela Davis as a descendant. America is huge. Talk of divorce is senseless In light of this reality.
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basically Ike won us the Cold War by keeping military spending *down*, few know this
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All the right-wing and left-wing opinions on Sw*ft and her boyfriend are fake. They don't exist. The only real issue in politics is how many welfare checks to give to boomers for being old.
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Like the European Union, when conservatives win big on something, the idea slowly becomes center-left coded. Then in roughly a generation, not a single young leftist can even dare to criticize it like Rawls did.
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This part of Twitter talks as if:
A) US leftists are parasites and tyrants, the literal worst ever of all time.
B) There is no serious rise in left-wing policy ideas in the Democratic party *that would also reasonably convince someone to vote GOP* in 2024.
It's unhinged.
The reason so many "leftists" in America are actually fascists if you look beneath the hood is because there are no powerful Communist countries left (since China isn't really Communist) so being anti-American necessarily requires you to be an active supporter of fascist states
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@njhochman
Gavin Newsom, certified sigma male, on his way to build five emergency natural gas plants so the grid doesn't tank while saying it's all about renewables and energy storage.
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We're in a fun situation where;
1) Trump campaigned like a populist and largely governed to the political economy views of swing normie suburbanite
2) Biden campaigned to the swing normie suburbanite crowd and has terrible econ ratings after governing as populist
Sadly, the best answer may be “Chinese-government influenced propaganda couldn’t possibly be more harmful to American society than propaganda shaped by the Trump allies who want to buy TikTok.”
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Joe Biden wants every young person to become a serf for the boomer welfare state, it's very sad and I hope he changes his mind on this.
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So much capital improvement in America is driven by mid-sized business.
Democrats have distrusted mid-sized business and manufacturing for most of their 200 year history. They've never been supply-siders.
Grover Cleveland and Bill Clinton were probably closest to pull it off?
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Like a few other things Matt says, I read National Review in addition to Vox in high school and found out a bit earlier, but I'm also glad he came around.
I am against murdering people regardless of the specific motive (hot take…) but probably worth saying it’s not clear the shooter even knew it was gay club and evidence at trial suggests no LGBT-related motives.
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@DanielBerman2
Exactly, if men like Lee Kwan Yew were more common, you'd be naming them regularly. But the world is a vast place, and there are more than enough Mugabes and Chávezs for everyone.
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so true king
Starmer stating that inequality can't be dealt with until there's 'growth'
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