The Mad King
@TheKingCourt
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@RealVision Co-Founder (The French one) // Global Macro Investor Former Head of research // NFA - DYOR
My Kingdom 👑
Joined November 2022
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
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It took me 18 months to go back on my feet. The Mad King helped me to to focus on what maters, macro & markets.
Few might find it desapointing, but no crypto/NFT/Exponential narrative will come out of me.
Lesson learned!
Here is The Mad King story:
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For finance professionals who commenced their careers after 1985 (including me), a continuous decline in rates has been the norm.
We've rarely encountered more than one standard deviation, and when we did we knew the Fed's next move.
Yet now we find ourselves approaching 4…
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As the 3rd largest shareholder of Real Vision, it is with good conscience that I recommend you NOT to buy it.
Integrity before profit
This is Raoul Vision not Real Vision
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This is $NVIDIA performance YTD:
Share price +223% YTD
Market cap +$800 billion YTD
Free cash flow +$6.2 billion YTD
Revenue + 123%
Is it plausible to think that such remarkable growth was accomplished with a mere 3% increase in operating expenses?
Either NVIDIA is the most…
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Chinese stocks plummeting, luckily they suspended short selling 🫡
Chinese stimulus kicking in 3...2...1....
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'08-'23: US Stock Market Cap: +$33 Trillion
2008:
Fed Rate: 5.5%
Total UST Debt: $10 Trillion
Interest Payments: $380 Billion
US Gvt Deficit as % of GDP: -1.5%
2023:
Fed Rate: 5.5%
Total UST Debt: $33 Trillion
Interest Payments: $970 Billion
US Gvt Deficit as % of GDP: -7.6%
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Uranium stands as potentially the best macro trade for the upcoming five years (maybe more).
It embodies the elements of a true blockbuster: compelling demographics, the surge for clean energy, escalating energy demand, and constricted supply.
It will get "The Mad King"…
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2024 and 2025 is going to be all about global liquidity, central banks and the dollar.
Here are the charts to track it all, they will be updated every week and are free to access for now, there are many more coming.
Welcome to "Mad Charts". Click 👇
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Uranium isn’t just a fleeting trend; it’s a necessity.
$URA has seen a 300% increase since its 2020 lows, but a broader perspective reveals we’re merely at the starting line, with significant ground to cover to hit pre-Fukushima levels.
For the early ones, congratulations. 👑…
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Certain work is too crucial to be restricted by paywalls.
"NVIDIA - The Red Flags" is one of them.
@SamanthaLaDuc
@JG_Nuke
@kashyap286
@GraphFinancial
's remarkable work is even more powerful when joined together.
The plot thickens...
You can read it…
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This HAS to be an intern making a typo when doing a manual entry for the ECB Deposit Facility.
If not, this is probably nothing, right?
@ecb
asking for a friend?
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Total Payrolls (pink) vs Composite (black)
Composite =((Full time jobs + Part time jobs) - Multi-Job Holders)
Feel like 2000!
Reach your own conclusion 🫡
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In 2018 I listened to a presentation by
@profplum99
about passive investing during a GMI round table.
At the time I didn't pay attention (wrongly) due to personal bias.
In hindsight, he was 100% right.
This belongs to him👑
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🎉 GIVEAWAY ALERT 🎉
To celebrate the upcoming launch of "The Mad King", we're giving away a one-year free subscription worth $900 to 3 lucky followers! 💥
To enter:
1️⃣ Follow us
2️⃣ Like this tweet ❤️
3️⃣ Retweet 🔁
4️⃣ Reply with
#TheMadKing
Winners will be selected…
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The big winner for 2023 (so far) is $SRUUF (Physical Uranium ETF).
Beating the AI hype and the S&P 500.
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Davos is like a meeting between (very) rich people to discuss poor people’s problems so they can become richer. 🫡
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Disney: We are going to boycott advertising on X
Also Disney:
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The money printer is about to go brrrrrr...
- Tax receipts (revenue) are down -7.8% YTD (-$250 Billion)
- Budget Deficit (running cost) +$1.1 Trillion YTD
- UST Public Debt (debt) +$1.6 Trillion
- Current Interest Payments (debt servicing) $969 Billion
- 32% of the tax…
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24 currencies weakening against the dollar. It looks like the dollar is ready to rally for now!
@SantiagoAuFund
@mnicoletos
@chigrl
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If the S&P 500 doesn't reach a new all-time high, it could indicate the formation of a double top pattern.
To confirm this pattern, it would require a break below the neckline, which means a correction greater than 26%.
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Central Banks are about to start cutting rates globally, and no it is not bullish...at first!
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For the next 24 hours, this article will be available for everybody to read.
No email, no details, 100% Free.
Spread the word🙏
The King is dead; long live the King.
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This interview is 5 years old and is possibly one of the best
@ttmygh
did!
Real Vision was really something back in the day!
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This is an outstanding piece of research - A MUST WATCH
If you hold or want to buy $NVDA shares, you must watch it!
Using a deflationary asset such as chips as collateral to...wait for it -Buy more of this deflationary asset- can only go ONE way.
This is a Ponzi in plain…
Who is Coreweave and where is their money coming from? Nobody is asking!🧐
#Coreweave
#Nvidia
$NVDA
#Magnetar
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Crypto bros: End the Fed
Also Crypto bros: When is QE back so price can pump?
😂😂😂
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$NVDA share price action looks like sh*t
All gains from Q2's "strong" performance have vanished.
Thank you for the exit liquidity.
@SamanthaLaDuc
, your timing was perfect
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When you don't charge a fee vs when you charge a fee 🫡
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$4Bn Fine
Resigned as CEO
18 months in jail
This is actually light considering the accusations.
You can be sure that CZ threw someone else under the bus.
More to come!
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We filmed a 3h interview with Grant Williams—
@ttmygh
It's accessible for the Gold bar tier members on his platform.
For me, this interview was almost a therapeutic experience.
The high-quality production took me back to the early days of Real Vision... a sentiment many share…
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NVIDIA - Don't Believe the Hype is out to subscribers.
No matter where you stand on NVIDIA, this article offers plenty to ponder.
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For the next 48 hours, "NVIDIA - Don't Believe The Hype" is available to everyone, completely free of charge.
This is a follow-up on the original piece.
No credit card or personal details are required.
This report delves deeper than just the…
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Such an epic 2mn by
@rickygervais
Remember Hollywood elites' nervous laughter at the Oscars when Ricky Gervais joked about the Epstein list?
Now we all know why. This is glorious.
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My comprehensive 54-page handbook for understanding the business cycle is finally ready.
I hope you enjoy the read.
In my opinion (but I might be biased), It's the most valuable content you can access for free this weekend.
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This chart caught my interest.
Relative values of Miners ETF vs. URA.
Looks to me that Uranium physical demand is about to skyrocket.
@uraniuminsider
, I am interested in your thoughts.
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Inflation is going down!
Real Life:
Crude Oil = +25% YTD
Orange Juice = +68% YTD
Olive Oil = +53% YTD
Cattle Live = +20% YTD
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You can now read our first-ever piece written for
@ttmygh
subscribers.
Featuring:
@Hedgeye
@AlderLaneEggs
@DoombergT
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It is out! // It is free! // It is good!
20 Charts - No Bias - No Agenda - No BS
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This account will go private in two weeks; once it is done, I will reward all my early followers.
Then, share or invite your friends because access will be exclusive later.
(Yeah! I used a picture of puppies and kitties to get your attention!)
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About the SPR:
Congress authorized the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA, P.L. 94-163) to help prevent a repetition of the economic dislocation caused by the 1973-1974 Arab oil embargo.
Using SPR to fight inflation was a strategic…
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And the best part:
CoreWeave used NVIDIA GPU as collateral to secure a $2.3 billion credit line. 🤣💀👑🫡
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Once this account goes private, only three cohorts of people will have access to my work.
1 -
@ttmygh
subscribers
2 - My Twitter followers
3- My Substack subscribers
If you are in one of these, you are on for a real treat.
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Hypothesis:
The day
#Bitcoin
hit $1 million a bottle of water may cost $100 and a gallon of Oil $20.
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Epic 🙌
Pictured below is the greatest investor of all time.
The other is George Soros.
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Hillary is way more efficient that Putin.
Epstein barely made a month in custody...
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It is fair to say that Biden’s presidency will be remembered as the worst presidency in history.
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Here is the CoreWeave office, which is a served office operated by Regus.
While it is usual for startups to start like this to save cost, it becomes quickly inefficient when scaling up.
I doubt a $5/8B company would still operate from there for security purposes.
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Recessions don't start with stocks at all-time low, just saying!
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In 1789, beheadings sent a powerful message, one that seems to have been lost to the annals of history.
Just in🔥
Footage emerges from the Palace of Versailles at last night's sickeningly opulent event with WEF Charles and Macron.
These are the parasites pushing net zero and open borders and you into poverty.
VILE!
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I had to twist Grant's harm to get this public.
This is the just introduction of the interview we did a few weeks ago with
@ttmygh
The production quality is the best you'll find out there, shots, narrative, details, everything is perfect. by Frans De Backer.
For the…
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The US Housing sector is about to enter the turbulence zone. Here is my take on it!
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The rate of change matters for financing costs.
Price levels matter for purchasing power.
Price level + Financing cost = Street Inflation
This explains why US consumers feel like everything is expensive regardless of slowing inflation.
People must survive price levels, not rate of change.
"We can never recapture the purchasing power of the dollar that has been lost."
- William McChesney Martin, the longest-serving Fed chairman, in August 1955.
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Everything changed in 2009!
The US public debt now equals ELEVEN years of US tax receipts.
Public debt is forecasted to be at $50 Trillion by 2030.
By then, interest payments ONLY will be at least $1.5 Trillion.
Tax receipts will have to nearly double to keep up.
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A perfect representation of social class performances.
The increasing gap between the upper and lower classes is represented by 2 stocks making ATH lately: McDonald's & LVMH.
Upper class doing well = LVMH ↗️
Lower class not doing well =McDonald's ↗️
Middle class struggle = S&P…
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$NVIDIA added more market cap this year than $INTEL/ $AMD/ $TSM entire Market cap combined.
1 - This doesn't feel organic
2 - The chip demand is overstated
3 - This is not sustainable
Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM, which supplies chips to AMD $AMD, Nvidia $NVDA, Qualcomm $QCOM, Intel $INTC, and Apple $AAPL just reported August revenue of ~$5.9 billion, down 13.5% Y/Y
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Today, I extended an invitation to
@ttmygh
subscribers to join The Mad King, and the response has been astounding; it's hard to believe.
Grant, I will forever be indebted to you for your faith in me, for urging me forward and providing guidance. You epitomize the virtues of a…
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🇪🇺 - There is a looming bank crisis in Europe. The banking sector has never really recovered post-2008...
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It's a wrap, and it is in my editor's hands.
"NVIDIA - Don't Believe The Hype" will be out to subscribers tomorrow.
This 33-page report will either confirm your bias or challenge your convictions.
Whatever position you have (short or long) on NVIDIA, you'll want to read it.
A…
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Here is another crazy assumption:
NVIDIA's free cash flow is going exponential:
1- Lend money to CoreWeave
2- Sell your GPU to CoreWeave
3- Increase revenue without increasing cost
4- Beat on Data Center
5- Move that revenue to cash flow
6- Rinse and repeat
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Pure Madness!
A comprehensive 54-page analysis on the business cycle is currently undergoing editing and will be published either later today or tomorrow.
This is possibly the most valuable free content you will read today.
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Best video you’ll watch today
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Narrator: Bitcoin is going to $2.3m
Me: so you are saying that Bitcoin market cap will be higher than the current S&P 500 market cap?
For Bitcoin to reach that kind of prices it would most likely mean that our financial system has collapsed.
Context matters 🫡
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Since 1945:
The S&P 500 is up 7.58% per year on avg.
US Total debt is up 7.42% per year on avg.
Current total debt = $91.6 Trillion
Current S&P 500 Market Cap. = $38.8 Trillion
We are reaching the end of the debt road.
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The S&P 500 went from oversold to overbought in only 16 trading days.
I am not convinced this is a sustainable rhythm.
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This is a market where fortunes have been made...soon we will enter the market where fortunes are being lost. 🫡
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Says the man who doesn’t do the shopping himself…
Amazing how much mail and comments I get insisting that grocery prices have doubled and are still soaring. They haven't and they aren't.
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Either the building will get on fire before it happens or the documents will be “lost”.
🔸Federal judge orders documents naming Jeffrey Epstein's associates to be unsealed
A federal judge in New York has ordered a vast unsealing of court documents in early 2024 that will make public the names of scores of Jeffrey Epstein's associates.
The documents are part of a…
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The EURO is going back to parity
The US Dollar is going to break everything
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This chart represents the path to net-zero emission by 2050.
Let's cut the BS : IT AIN'T HAPPENING
This is the piece I am currently working on, I am going to prove how impossible it is using facts as simple as 1+1=2
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I am writing my next Market Chronicle; here is an excerpt.
Gold- "A clean breakout of its resistance would send gold to uncharted territories. A very powerful cup and holder pattern is in place; the next move is usually exponential."
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And then competition arrived…
$NVDA
Microsoft-backed AI startup beats Nvidia H100 on key tests with GPU-like card equipped with 256GB RAM
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Following an influx of very positive feedback, I've chosen to make "Smoke & Mirror" accessible to all, given the significance and polarized nature of the topic.
You can now read it for FREE.
Regardless of your position about climate change, this is an important piece to read.…
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$NVDA just announced the H200, which is much more powerful than the H100.
What will happen to the H100 order book (apparently full for the next 18 months)?
What will happen to CoreWeave H100 stock?
Somebody is about to get those H100 chips at a nice discount!
Timely…
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I feel for her, this is wrong to so many levels.
HE should not compete with women. Lets stop the BS!
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ISM is going to come out weaker than expected in January and could fall below 45 which gives us a 80% chance of recession.
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This is a very interesting chart.
The DXY is behaving EXACTLY the same way as in 1981 when inflation was slowing down.
2023 is going to be an explosive year for the US Dollar!
Milkshake time
@SantiagoAuFund
!
Now guess what the Fed will (try to) do if DXY gets too strong...
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Such a sign of an healthy market!
CNBC is running a $NVDA earnings countdown like it’s New Year’s Eve. It was a good run everybody, it’s so over.
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That gap will be filled, and people will be in disbelief.
On the bright side, even at $318, $NVDA will have witnessed a 125% surge year-to-date.
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The website is blowing up, and images are not loading because we are hitting Google Cloud API limitations.
There is some irony considering the topic covered.
I guess Google needs NVIDIA GPU badly, but CoreWeave bought them all. 🫡
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New Platform
New Features
New Tools
We are just starting! 🚀
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The halving narrative is being pushed right, left and center.
With 92% of Bitcoin already in circulation, I am not sure this time it will matter like it has in the past!
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We are told the US economy is strong and yet Small Business Optimism just missed and is ticking down again.
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Let’s be real.
Crypto has never been about utility, but about greed and speculation. 🫡
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Bitcoin YTD = 66.5%
Gold YTD = 16.45%
S&P 500 YTD = 9%
NASDAQ YTD = 9.5%
Everything is fine, yeah sure🫡
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A) Release good numbers
B) Revise numbers down
C) Repeat until something breaks
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