‼️ new data alert ‼️
Hey
#econtwitter
! Sharing the dataset I built on bankruptcy exemptions. Exemptions are a key policy lever governing the amount of debt relief bankruptcy offers households. Access here: (1/n)
Happy to see my first (!!!) publication in the RFS (
@SFSjournals
)! And just in time to shed light on recent events in the banking sector. The paper uses a natural experiment to study how the health of lenders alters the strength of monetary policy. (1/n)
A neat result about IV's local average treatment effect (LATE) that I haven't seen emphasized often:
When treatment is *continuous,* LATE identifies a weighted average of treatment effects, where larger weights are placed on observations with a larger first stage coefficient.
Excited to share that this July I’m joining
@Wharton
’s Finance Department! Looking forward to working with such terrific colleagues and students! I’m very grateful for my wonderful and supportive colleagues at
@DukeFuqua
+
@DukeEcon
and the stellar students (1/2)
🚨Job market public good alert!🚨 Staying organized during the market can make your life a lot easier. The excel file I’ve uploaded here can help keep track of applications, interviews, flyouts, reimbursements, and offers.
#econtwitter
#econjobmarket
Some exciting personal news: this summer I'm joining
@DukeFuqua
as an Assistant Professor of Finance!
I'm looking forward to working with such great colleagues and students!
Mechanism design question for the
#econtwitter
crowd!
Suppose 7 professors share a thermostat that sets the same temperature in their offices. What is the welfare-maximizing mechanism to solicit preferred temperatures and select the thermostat value? (1/n)
Hey
#EconTwitter
, with job market talk season underway, I thought I’d share some advice in case any candidates are finding/worrying that their presentations are too long. (1/n)
With the finance and
#econjobmarket
underway again, I'm flagging this tool I created to track applications, interviews, flyouts, reimbursements, and offers. Hope this helps take away some of the organizational burden!
🚨Job market public good alert!🚨 Staying organized during the market can make your life a lot easier. The excel file I’ve uploaded here can help keep track of applications, interviews, flyouts, reimbursements, and offers.
#econtwitter
#econjobmarket
Financial crises can shake our beliefs in fin. institutions. Can this reputation damage create contagion and worsen crises? Tune in to tomorrow’s NBER CF Meeting to see what underwriters in early sov bond markets can teach us about reputation and contagion! Thread & links👇 (1/n)
❗Predoc job❗
@GidiBo
, Sergio Salgado, and I are hiring a predoc starting July 2023! Join us at
@Wharton
to study inequality, finance, and macro!
Priority deadline: October 20, 2022
#EconTwitter
@econ_ra
Dissertation defended! I'm deeply grateful to Marty Eichenbaum,
@ProfNoto
, David Berger, and John Mondragon (
@Kutbil_Ik
) for being extraordinary mentors and helping me grow as a researcher at
@NorthwesternU
🔥
@Wharton
Predoc Job Posting🔥
Gideon Bornstein (
@GidiBo
), Sergio Salgado, and I are hiring a full-time Predoctoral Research Associate! Interested in empirical macro and finance? Please apply!
Job link:
#EconTwitter
@econ_ra
🎉 So grateful to the
@NSF
for this opportunity!
@chenzix
and I are investigating what leads countries to become serial defaulters.
@chenzix
summarizes the project below 👇 and the new data 📈 and NLP tools 💻 we're creating and plan to release publicly!
🎉Super excited to announce that
@SashaIndarte
and I were awarded an
#NSF
grant for our project "The Origins of Serial Sovereign Default." We're psyched! In addition to the research Q we're putting together lots of tools & data for researchers creating/using historical data! 🧵
My new favorite genre of poetry is ChatGPT-generated poems about econometric methods:
There once was a method quite fine
They called it regression kink design
It's a graph with a bend
That helps us comprehend
The causal effects that we need to find
How might econ/fin research change if we had more economists from first-gen/low-income backgrounds? Could we better understand income and wealth inequality, education, and poverty? My own experiences motivate my research focus on financial distress.
Key stylized fact:
Amongst US-born PhDs, Economics is less socioeconomically diverse than *all* the major PhD fields, including math, computer science, physical and biological sciences, and other social sciences.
(3/N)
Great advice! I would strongly recommend group work at *all* stages of the PhD. Practice presentations together, discuss your research, and form reading groups. The fall before the job market, do mock interviews and job talks together. (1/3)
Thanks to
@FacultiNet
for the chance to discuss my research on why consumers file for bankruptcy and what this means for the trade offs of providing generous debt relief!
How does changing social insurance programs, like Medicaid, affect household debt?
@GidiBo
and I find borrowing can *increase* when insurance makes consumers more financially resilient!
Thanks for the chance discuss this research on
@Wharton
's new podcast Ripple Effect 👇
.
@Wharton
's
@SashaIndarte
shares her research on the effects of access to Medicaid. People...
✔️ are less likely to default
✔️ are less likely to have debt collections
✔️ have more access to credit
🎙️
#FinancialLiteracyMonth
Ripple Effect podcast:
De-identified personal financial data has played a key role in research that helps us better understand financial distress, macro policy, inequality, and many more topics. Economists, please consider signing to help protect the ability of academics to continue this important work
🚨Consumer finance researchers🚨
We're submitting a comment on how CFPB's proposed rule on personal financial data rights may curtail researcher access to consumer transaction data.
We're urging CFPB to consider permitting anonymized data access for research purposes.
1/2
It's been a privilege to advise a brilliant and creative student like
@ssarkisyan27
. And you can hire him this year on the job market!
His JMP uses a natural experiment to study how instant payment tech levels the playing field between small and big banks, promoting competition
‼️ JOB MARKET PAPER ALERT ‼️
I show that payment technology can have a positive effect on banking competition. More specifically, instant payment systems reduce deposit market concentration by increasing payment and transfer convenience of small banks.
So excited to help kick off the spring edition of
#VMACS
! I'll be presenting work on how the financial health 💪 of lenders 🏦 affects the pass through of monetary policy 💸 to consumer credit 💳
Join us next Thursday!
Follow
@virtualmacrosem
for news on the latest seminars!
#VMACS
is BACK March 11.
40 min talk by
@SashaIndarte
10 min talk by
@LHerrenbrueck
Full schedule to be updated on ASAP
(PS: sorry for the erroneous Zoom email yesterday, we start next week)
Great advice! My version of this: focus on input rather than output.
When exactly you reach a research milestone depends on luck. Motivation is easier to sustain when you focus on making the small steps you can take every day to get there.
Good piece of advice.
I'd add one more: focus on daily goals, e.g., go over intro, debug this piece of code, etc.
Thinking of long-term goals made me feel that I didn't have enough time and thus made me very anxious. This was a good way of making progress without going nuts
Next AREUEA Junior Scholar:
@SashaIndarte
is an Asst Prof of Finance at Wharton. Her research explores the causes and consequences of financial distress, with a focus on household finance, financial intermediation, and macroeconomics.
Really excited to be presenting this work w
@SashaIndarte
today at the
@econometricsoc
session chaired by
@MelissaLDell
! Lots of really cool papers showcasing new ML tools for historical data 🎉
Measuring something as abstract as consumer sentiment is hard. But sentiment is helpful for understanding and forecasting economic choices. Karthik Sastry and I had the opportunity to discuss this interesting topic with
@Marketplace
's
@kairyssdal
. Listen below:
Professor
@SashaIndarte
recently sat down with
@kairyssdal
of
@Marketplace
to explain consumer sentiment measures and the apparent disconnect between consumer feelings and what’s happening in the economy.
🔥new paper🔥 How does social insurance affect household debt?
@GidiBo
and I find that by improving households' financial resilience, insurance can expand credit access and lead to *more* debt. First draft is now available and feedback is very welcome!
In “The Impact of Social Insurance on Household Debt,” Wharton professors Gideon Bornstein and Sasha Indarte explore the ways that the expansion of social insurance affects the accumulation of household debt. Read the full paper:
One thing we’ve learned during the pandemic — always expect the unexpected. Wondering how to manage your finances in these volatile times? Join us for Office Hours with
@Wharton
professor
@SashaIndarte
tomorrow at 1 p.m. ET!
#FinancialLiteracyMonth
Great write-up about my work on racial disparities in personal bankruptcy with
@bargyle
,
@profiverson
, and Christopher Palmer! Article includes a
@WhartonBizDaily
podcast interview about this research 👇👇👇
🔥predoc job opening🔥
Come work with me and
@chenzix
on research in international financial history! Position is full time and based at
@StanfordGSB
.
The priority application deadline is Oct 1, 2021
📢Apply to come work for me and
@SashaIndarte
starting summer/fall 2022
@StanfordGSB
! Research at the intersection of finance/international/history
More info here:
#EconTwitter
Spoke yesterday with
@WhartonBizDaily
's
@DanLoney21
about the GameStop short squeeze! Check it out if you'd like to learn more about these recent developments in the stock market.
Join us Feb 3-4! Fascinating program on debt restructuring.
My talk describes what we know 📈 and don't know 🤔 about the costs and benefits of household debt relief 💸, highlighting policy implications and directions for future research 💡
Join us! Against the backdrop of record levels of debt, we have a fantastic program to discuss options for debt restructuring for households, firms and sovereigns. Macro, micro, history. With
@SashaIndarte
@SorryToBeKurt
@louishyman
Yueran Ma, Adrien Auclert
@RanaForoohar
et al
Very neat paper on the impact of wealth windfalls on new business formation/self employment. Erik's coauthor Aymeric is a Wharton PhD on the market this year too!
In “Personal Wealth, Self-Employment and Business Ownership,” Erik Gilje writes about the effects of personal wealth on entrepreneurship. Read the full paper:
Excited to see the NC
#MedicaidExpansion
pass! My work with
@GidiBo
finds expanding Medicaid significantly improves peoples' financial health---and it can even crowd *in* the supply of credit by making people more financially resilient
A Medicaid expansion deal in North Carolina received final legislative approval, likely ending a decade of debate over whether the politically divided state should accept the federal government's coverage for hundreds of thousands of low-income adults.
One of the best papers on the consequences of the 2005 bankruptcy reform! Bottom line: costs of bankruptcy rose significantly, which improved credit access but reduced the insurance value of bankruptcy
My paper with Feng Liu +
@talgross
+
@ProfNoto
+
@ray_kluender
about the 2005 bankruptcy reform is forthcoming in the AER! 🎉🔥
With this ambitious Biden-Warren reform plan, our paper might be relevant in the next few years 👇🏽👇🏽
@paulgp
Tarek Hassan has a lot of neat applications of ML-NLP/textual data. His firm-level political risk paper was a great intro to these methods and how they can expand the types Qs we can work on!
Best Paper in Asset Pricing at
#SFSCavalcade
2021
“Social Security and Trends in Wealth Inequality”
Sylvain Catherine
@sc_cath
Max Miller
@mjmill611
Natasha Sarin
@NatashaRSarin
Paper will be presented Thursday at 2:45!
3/4
Liquidity & credit access: how does it affect employment and wages? Financial inclusion and financial distress? The decision to file for bankruptcy? Join us this Saturday at the WFA to find out! Free registration for students!!
Join me for the
#WFA2020
session on Personal Finance this Saturday 6/20 @ 8:15am PDT!
- Liquidity constraints + employment @ Denmark
- Formal credit + credit scoring @ Paraguay
- Moral hazard v liquidity @ Bankruptcy
Registration is free for students! 🤓🤓
The application process for the MFR Program Summer Session for Young Scholars to be held at the University of Chicago on July 28-31, 2020. Learn more about this 4-day program and apply here:
🔥 job market public good alert 🔥 There's a lot of info to stay on top of during the job market. I created an organizer to keep track of apps, interviews, flyouts (zoom-outs?), reimbursements, and offers. Find it below or on my website
🚨Job market public good alert!🚨 Staying organized during the market can make your life a lot easier. The excel file I’ve uploaded here can help keep track of applications, interviews, flyouts, reimbursements, and offers.
#econtwitter
#econjobmarket
@florianederer
Thanks
@florianederer
! Minor correction: the contagion is *across* countries. E.g., when Argentina defaults, Mexican bonds with the same underwriter as the defaulting bonds fall in price relative to Mexican bonds with different underwriters
First year courses are a unique opportunity to do a guided deep dive into the fundamentals of econ/fin. Grades may not have direct consequences, but it's correlated with how much you're taking advantage of this learning opportunity.
2. College grades matter for getting into econ/finance PhD. Some PhD students actually work hard in 1st year and try to ace their classes, not realizing that this basically has 0 direct effect on whether you'll find a job after PhD, it's all about writing papers
Thanks for the opportunity! Uploaded my discussion slides on my website! Highly recommend reading the paper – important findings for bankruptcy policy, and clever empirical approaches that could be useful for other policy analyses.
Important new education financing paper 👇Punchline: adverse selection limits private market provision of equity-like alternatives to student loans. But there are large welfare gains to gov't provision of these alternative contracts.
My new working paper out today with
@djh1202
shows how adverse selection has unraveled private markets for financial alternatives to student debt that would reduce the risk of investing in college.
Thread summary below: (1/n)
One of my fav econ/fin history stories! Gregor MacGregor got away with selling bonds for the *fictional* country of "Poyais" for over a year before his fraud was discovered. Along the way, he stranded would-be settlers in an isolated Nicaraguan swamp.
in the roaring early 1820s, faced with low rates, British investors were reaching for yield by investing in the currency of a fictional country. you could add 200 years and tell the exact same story.
Household debt is on the rise in developing countries, but many lack a formal bankruptcy system and are just beginning to design one. Very interesting look into how households cope without debt relief and the new policies emerging around the world:
How did the 2005 bankruptcy overhaul affect filing and consumer credit markets? To find out, join
@jialanw
and I next Friday May 15!
@jialanw
is presenting her work with
@talgross
,
@ray_kluender
, Feng Liu, and
@ProfNoto
, and I'm discussing, as part of MoFiR!
Thanks to all (~120) who joined the first MoFiR virtual seminar on banking. Webinars are on Fridays, every 2 weeks; full calendar here:
Next in line is
@jialanw
(
@SashaIndarte
will discuss) on May 15.
If interested, please subscribe to the mailing list
Interested in international macroeconomics and finance? Find online all the materials from the Stanford Initiative: videos, slides, data, and code.
Intended to be a starter kit for PhD students interested in large-scale empirical work in the field. 1/n
Reducing barriers to bank entry can spur credit growth but at the cost of financial instability.
Very neat quasi-experimental evidence from the National Banking Era!
Almost 5yrs ago,
@Ogoun
and I joined the Fed Board. Our offices were next to each other. We chatted a lot and started a project on banking competition (soon also joined by Mark Carlson). Now the resulting paper has been accepted at the JPE! Here is what we learned! 1/N
Good reminder for job market candidates! In addition to this issue, some cloud services are blocked at the Fed. I recommend hosting PDFs on GitHub (see my website for an example)
There is a PSA every year that says, "Job market candidates -- you may be tempted to post your CVs/JMPs on Google Drive/Dropbox/etc. and link to that on your website. Don't." This 👇 is why. Heed the warning.
Great thread on
@NicolaLimodio
's fascinating work linking silver prices to terrorism. Very clever research design and great example of surprising/unintended policy consequences
Absolutely incredible paper presented at the
@StiglerCenter
's Political Economy of Finance conference in Chicago this weekend, by
@NicolaLimodio
.
Takeaway: fluctuations in the international price of silver can predict the probability of terrorist attacks!
(1/9)
The int'l
#StudentBan
is harmful to the US and cruel. The ban will devastate the dreams of many who contribute so much to our schools, economy, and society. It also puts many schools in the position of choosing between faculty + student health and their financial future. Sign 👇
The landscape of household finance and consumer payments is rapidly evolving. Join us for a two-day virtual conference seeking to capture insights from the latest research. View agenda and register today for the
#NewPerspectives
conference, Sept 9-10.
Presenting new work w/
@GidiBo
this Fri at Indiana’s Junior Finance Conference. We explore the micro + macro effects of expanding social insurance on household debt. Bottomline: by improving financial resilience, insurance can⬆️HH debt
Excited for this conference, sign up below!
A new zoom first: running to your office for wifi after a fire alarm forces you to evacuate right before your seminar starts. Thanks
@uzh_bf
for the great questions and discussion (and patience with my delay)!
Suspending evictions and foreclosures is a great move for both public health and financial health. Social distancing gets much harder without a home. Maintaining households’ financial health will likely set us up for a stronger recovery.
Great intuition for clustering in RCTs (see the follow up blog post too). Inference only requires clustering when both the error term AND treatment are correlated within a cluster. Treatment should be uncorrelated in a true individual-level RCT with no spillovers
Highly recommend this opportunity for PhD students interested in macro and finance! In addition to being a lot of fun, it was so beneficial for my research to get feedback from macro-fin folks with such a variety of perspectives
The Macro Finance Research Program (MFR), which I lead, is holding our 2022 Summer Session for Young Scholars on August 1-4, 2022 at the University of Chicago. Read more and learn how to apply here:
@BeckerFriedman
This is great advice! I wish someone had told me this early on as a PhD student.
This is also a good tool for *explaining* an empirical strategy. You can make it intuitive by describing the implicit comparison that the research design is using.
This rule of thumb works for thinking about empirical papers too! E.g. project the identification strategy into a simple version of whatever exercise they are doing.
Today, brokerages are restricting trading of the stocks at the center of the short squeeze. This is likely contributing to the reversal of $GME we're seeing today.
Wondering what is going on with GameStop on NY Stock Exchange? Check out this podcast interview yesterday with
@SashaIndarte
of the Wharton School.
Real time update: Right now, 13:59 Eastern Time, GameStop is down more than 31% on the day on the NYSE.
With continuous treatment, heterogeneity can help show how the LATE may differ from the ATE. If you identify subsamples that you expect differ in first stage strength, you can compare their LATEs to see whether estimates are larger for upweighted obs.
🔥predoc job opening🔥
Come work with me and
@chenzix
on research in international financial history! Position is full time and based at
@StanfordGSB
.
The priority application deadline is Oct 1, 2021
Check out
@SashaIndarte
's virtuosic takes on bankruptcy, non-pecuniary costs, bleeding-edge literature, and much much more in her discussion slides. 👇🏾👇🏾👀👀
Anyone studying bankruptcy should check out her stuff today👩🏼💼👩🏼💼💳💳💸💸🤓🤓
What an awesome public good! There is much new territory researchers can better explore with digitization and textual data. These tools look very useful!
I found the first year extremely challenging, and another benefit of aiming for high grades was that I learned how to work towards challenging goals. You can practice optimizing work habits and get better at working harder.
💥Wharton Real Estate is looking for a new RA to join our in-coming class of pre-docs.
Work will be at the intersection of urban, and housing, and public economics.
Apply here:
Amazing new mentoring program for students from under-represented backgrounds considering an econ PhD!
#EconTwitter
please share with your students!
Props to
@sarahraviola
and Duke's PhD students for launching this! What a valuable service!
1/ Some exciting news: the Duke Econ Grad Student Diversity and Inclusion committee is launching a new initiative: the Graduate Mentorship Program (GMP), targeted to students from backgrounds under-represented in economics and considering a PhD in econ:
It's
#econjobmarket
season! Here's what I learned about interviews/spiels, hopefully still applicable this year:
Your audience has diverse interests, their questions can go on a tangent, it's your job to pull them back! Respectfully say "That relates to my next point..."
1/N
A great way to gain research experience before a PhD!
@sc_cath
has a fascinating research agenda, working with him will be an especially interesting predoc opportunity!
🧪I am recruiting a predoctoral research assistant to work with me on household finance, public economics and inequality. The position is at the Wharton Finance department:
Interested in empirical work on consumer finance? Come check out our
#SEA2021
virtual session at 10am today! My awesome junior colleague
@NatePattison
will be presenting our work,
@paulgp
supposedly has a cameo appearance,
@SashaIndarte
,
@talgross
, and several more!
Econ PhD students + postdocs: Submit your (applied) paper by July 22 for Northwestern & UChicago-hosted EMCON conference, Oct 11-12. Keynote speakers are Josh Angrist (
@metrics52
) + Molly Schnell.
🚨 New paper thread 🚨
2 in 5 Americans have medical debt. 18% have more than $2,500! In response, states & local governments have pledged $12 billion of medical debt relief.
We randomized $169 million of debt relief for 83,401 people between 2018-20.
Here's what we found:
@chenzix
A simpler solution might be using the syntax \cite*{} and \citep*{}. The * makes all authors appear. I think I'm just using natbib and the AER style file.
I'm discussing a fascinating paper today by Ramin Baghai, Rui Silva, and Luofu Ye that uses inventor-level patenting data to explore how corporate bankruptcies can destroy team-specific human capital and reduce innovation
@AdrienMatray
My preferred solution for annotating slides on Zoom is by screen sharing my ipad and using
@NotabilityApp
. It's relatively quick to set up and I haven't had resolution or latency issues!