Have falling labor market barriers to women led to a change in selection of high-skilled women away from education, leading to a decline in the quality of teachers, and human capital production? See my co-author Kieran present our paper at NBER SI https://t.co/QXXY1ySh9a

Great fun to present "Job Transformation, Specialization, and the Labor Market Effects of AI" (joint with the fantastic @lukasfmann) @nberpubs EFG Fall Meeting today! 🔗to paper in tweet below. Thanks to @glviolante & Corina Boar for organizing & including us in the program!

Thanks a lot to @glviolante and Corina for inviting me to discuss. Was a great conference, lots of thought-provoking papers on pressing questions

So glad to see this paper forthcoming in the AER. I learned a lot by working on it, and collaborating with @Federomei1 is always fun. Thanks a lot to the editor, the referees and everyone else who gave us useful suggestions. Special thanks to @diegoebm for excellent r.a. work!

A professional announcement: Oli Coibion, @YGorodnichenko and I are starting a new conference on Expectations and Behavior, with a special focus on giving junior researchers the opportunity to interact with more senior researchers in the field.

Unmissable for anyone eager to understand the foundations of modern macro

Espen Hendriksen presenting his work with Marcus Hagedorn at the Wien Macro Cafe

Tributes to our fallen comrades…

The Economics Department @Unibocconi is hiring 2 junior (AP) economists! If you are on the job market looking for a great place to live and do research, please apply! https://t.co/fmQIZRBILB

Apply! Considering candidates in all fields. A great place to start a career

Thanks also to @drkaenzig for generously sharing updated data with us on oil news surprises from his very nice AER paper.

💡 Key takeaways: Oil shocks are inflationary and contractionary—but unequally so. Low-income workers see the sharpest earnings losses and job-finding declines. Monetary policy can cushion these effects, but only modestly. 👉 For equity, fiscal tools may be needed

What if monetary policy didn’t respond to oil shocks? 2 scenarios: 1️⃣ Anticipated non-response (@AlisdairMcKay & @ChristianKWolf 2023): little changes 2️⃣ Repeated surprise non-response (Sims & Zha 2006): big boost to activity & employment, esp. for low-income workers

Germany’s monetary authorities reacted moderately to oil shocks: 🔹 Rates rose modestly at first (≈ +20 bps) 🔹 Then fell after ~1 year This pattern matters for how inflation and employment evolve over time

We contrast oil shocks with monetary policy shocks. Both affect low-income households more, but through different channels: Oil shocks: reduce earnings & job-finding Monetary tightening: raises separation probabilities

The pain isn’t shared equally. Earnings of the bottom decile fall ≈ 2 pp two years after a 10 % oil-price increase, while the top decile is barely affected 📉 The shock lowers job-finding probabilities and future employment more strongly for low-income workers.

A 10 % rise in the price of oil: ⬆️ Inflation ≈ +0.5 pp ⬇️ Industrial production ≈ −1 % ⬇️ Employment ≈ −0.5 pp ↗️ Modest short-run rate hike by the Bundesbank/ECB, followed by easing later

Why it matters 👇 Supply shocks, like the oil-price surges following COVID and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, affect everyone, but not equally. We show that low-income workers bear the brunt: their earnings and job-finding prospects fall sharply after oil price increases

🚨 New paper out in IMF Economic Review! 📄 The Distributional Effects of Oil Shocks (with Tobias Broer & @jvkramer1 ) We study how oil supply shocks affect workers across the income distribution using 45 years of German administrative data. https://t.co/2hlV4jWz6g

The exposure of the world to US equities is at record levels. A stock market correction would have more severe and global consequences as compared to what followed the dot-com crash. The tariff wars and lack of fiscal space compounds the problem. The underlying problem is not

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