The IRS is outgunned, outmanned, outnumbered, outplanned.
Single most imp tax reform is providing resources needed to police the $$$.
My latest in
@nytopinion
⬇️
“If the I.R.S. were able to collect the unpaid taxes that the top 1 percent owe — absent any increases in top tax rates or new system of wealth taxation — enough revenue would be generated to wipe out student debt for most people in this country.”
At the IRS in Austin, cafeteria is overrun with paper returns awaiting processing by campus’s dedicated employees who will *keystroke* line items into the IRS’s database
Investing in the IRS essential to overhaul this manual system, so agency can serve taxpayers way they deserve
To illustrate how absurd $750 is:
Poorest 20% of Americans
(People who make less than $25K/year)
Paid more in federal taxes in 2016 and 2017 than President Trump
President Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes in 2016, and nothing in 10 of the prior 15 years — largely because he reported losing much more money than he made.
Read the takeaways from our exclusive look at decades of Trump’s tax records.
The first bill a new Congress considers is an important statement of the majority’s priorities.
House Republicans’ first order of business?
Protecting wealthy tax cheats, adding to the deficit, and making it impossible for IRS to serve the American people the way they deserve:
ANALYSIS - rescinding IRS funding will increase the deficit by 𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 $𝟭𝟬𝟬 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻, encourage tax cheating, and cut the tax enforcement budget well below what President Trump wanted.
Over the last decade, audit rates have fallen most for the very richest Americans.
The result?
Less tax revenue and a more unequal tax system.
My latest in
@bopinion
A thread:
Returning to the gold standard and eliminating deposit insurance not just fringe views
They are literally held by no serious person in the field
It is unsurprising that a terrible President made such a dangerous Fed pick
But it is insane that R Senators are supporting her
So the IRS started with $80 billion.
House Republicans took $21 billion in the debt deal, took $25 billion in housing bill yesterday, trying to take another $22 billion today in the commerce bill...
Soon the IRS is going to owe $80 billion
The IRS has fewer auditors than at any time since WWII.
No surprise that tax gap costs the U.S. 3% of GDP/yr, disproportionately from the $$ who don't pay their fair share
@POTUS
proposals to improve compliance will raise $700B+, create a more efficient, equitable tax systm
“When you under-fund the IRS, it’s just a tax cut for tax cheats.”
—John Koskinen, former IRS Commissioner
From today’s
@arappeport
piece on the substantial importance—and revenue raising potential—of
@POTUS
’s plan to overhaul the IRS:
Here is the case for the Biden Admin's focus on resourcing IRS to pursue wealthy tax cheats in one graph:
Auditing the rich is expensive--but it has *ginormous* returns!
Thread on seminal new paper, also featured in great piece by
@crampell
today:
What are the returns to IRS tax audits? How do they vary across the income distribution?
In a new paper🚨, we find that $1 spent auditing high-income taxpayers yields more than $12 in revenue.
For an overview, check out
@crampell
’s coverage 1/:
Some news: I’ve concluded my time at
@USTreasury
. I feel so grateful to
@SecYellen
,
@TreasuryDepSec
, and my amazing colleagues for their tireless push to create a fairer tax system. So proud of all that’s been accomplished and so excited to cheer on all the good on the horizon.
Fact I learned today: IRS uses these stamps to mark every paper return w a ref numbr
To advance them, employees use basically toothpicks to change dials
In addn to requiring wild amt of manpower, system also $ to maintain—only one producer/repairer of such stamps still exists!
Lots in this paper, I'm excited to dig in, but TL/DR:
IRS thinks it can raise *$851B!!!* over the course of the next decade as a result of new IRA investments
$851B! From collecting taxes owed, disprop from top
Also puts a steep price on funding cuts
Compare Robert Smith, who evaded some $43m in taxes.
He'll avoid indictment for years of willful tax evasion.
To Tanya McDowell, who went to jail.
In part, for lying about her address to send her kid to a better school.
Btwn 2014-2016, a few hundred high-income nonfilers cost fed govt $10B.
IRS didn't pursue those cases; so this is a positive change.
But IRS is clear: today, it has more work than agents.
Sig investmt in compliance is first-order, to raise $$ and create a fairer tax system.
In a new NBER WP out today,
@LHSummers
and I estimate that investment in tax compliance can generate over $1T in the next decade.
NBER:
A version is also out in Tax Notes today:
This Tax Day, one way to *see* how IRS funding has impacted taxpayers:
A year ago, this photo of the IRS cafeteria in Austin, piled sky-high with unprocessed tax returns, made the rounds.
Here's what that cafeteria looks like today:
Paper is gone-backlogs are FULLY cleared!
BEYOND THRILLED to see the IRS release its Strategic Operating Plan, a blueprint for how the $80B investment from the Inflation Reduction Act will transform tax administration.
It is *146 pages* of amazing detail
A thread of some highlights:
NEW: I.R.S. unveils $80 billion plan to overhaul tax collection
The 10-year strategy document outlines a focus on taxpayer services and enforcement efforts on the rich.
Commissioner Werfel says audit rates for under $400k will not rise at all.
At the IRS, every paper return received is transcribed *by hand* and “large amount of time has been used looking for carts to put files on and staples for stapling files together”
Harrowing read on consequences of gutting IRS and the importance of Biden Admin funding efforts ⬇️
Americans are mad about delayed tax refunds and an I.R.S. that doesn't answer phones.
Ground Zero of a chaotic tax season is the Kansas City processing center, where scanners sputter and staplers are scarce.
Inside the nation's stalled fiscal machine.
How you can look at this and think the IRS is not in dire need of resources is beyond me
Our two-tiered tax system has one set of rules for workers (taxes withheld automatically!) and another set for the wealthy and large corps/pships (rules don't apply since no $ to enforce!)
15 years ago, Bear Stearns collapsed, ushering in the GFC. Since then, financial regulation has changed for the better
But as SVB’s collapse illustrates, there are key flaws in our regulatory regime
Must focus on preventing fires ex-ante, not just fighting them ex-post
A 🧵:
This is terrifying because we do not teach law students (who become SCOTUS clerks) anything about statistics, and this gobbledy-gook can be read as fancy science suggests coup is viable.
Here Texas argues that its' expert's statistical analysis holds up not in spite of his blinding ignorance of how elections work but *because of it.* (The absentee votes that took longest to count absolutely were not randomly distributed across the states.)
This is wild!
Thanks to budget cuts, millionaire audits down 80% in the last decade; the partnership audit rate is ~0
Left unaddressed, top 1% will evade $2T in owed taxes over the next decade
Rs should explain why they are pro wealthy tax cheats (& pro *increasing* deficit)
IRS budget, as a % of gross collections, down 50% since early 1990s.
As opaque, hard to monitor structures like partnerships on the rise.
Conservative estimate is $1 to IRS -> $12 in additional tax collections.
Robust attack on tax gap is a no brainer!
If this story does not illustrate the need to provide a gutted IRS the resources it needs to pursue ultra-wealthy tax evaders, I do not know what will.
#Econtwitter
--
@Dannyyagan
and I are hiring research assistants!
Pre-docs and current PhD students looking for an exciting RA opportunity, please apply!
Everyone else, help us spread the word!
"President Trump is one insidious example of the wealthy not paying their fair share," writes
@NatashaRSarin
. "We have to invest in tax compliance so they are forced to."
Giving the IRS the resources it needs to pursue ultra-wealthy MUST be top priority for tax reform efforts.
The dollars at stake are huge:
Collecting taxes the top 1% already owe -- absent any new changes to top rates, wealth tax -- enough to wipe out student debt.
In case you missed it: IRS Comm Rettig sent a 26 (!) page letter to
@SenWarren
,
@SenWhitehouse
,
@SenSanders
on the value of
@POTUS
tax compliance initiatives.
There is a lot of really important (and new) data here.
A thread:
$31.3 billion in overdraft fees.
I get that banks need to generate revenue from checking accounts but the folks who are paying these fees are *literally* those who can least afford it.
This is a *remarkable* graph of the revenue that will be raised from a robust attack on noncompliance
$700B in first decade; $1.6T in the second
And a fairer, more efficient tax system--where all, including $$, pay their fair share
Full report here:
A year ago, President Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act, which included a historic investment in the IRS.
American taxpayers are already seeing huge returns.
My latest in
@PostOpinions
:
This is incredibly stupid
ZERO rationale other than burn it all down
Given tragedy of fiscal stalemate, handicapping monetary policy is insane
12% of Americans reported not having enough to eat last week -- Trump Admin determined to make things worse on way out, not better
Wow. Major news coming out of the Treasury, as reported by
@SalehaMohsin
:
All emergency programs from the CARES Act will expire on Dec. 31. So that's:
Municipal Liquidity Facility
Main Street Lending Program
Primary and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities
All kinds of bad on this list, worth noting rescinding IRS funding would *increase* the deficit, per CBO:
So, Rs aren't even directionally right here. And worth asking why they are so pro wealthy tax cheats.
Rs claim the global min tax threatens sovereignty, is unconstitutional, decreases the competitiveness of our companies, hurts workers, and won't raise revenue
That sounds bad. Fortunately, none of it is true.
My latest in
@PostOpinions
with
@KClausing
This week, I joined the faculty of
@YaleLawSch
with a secondary appointment at
@YaleSOM
. Thrilled to be returning to New Haven and really excited about the opportunity to apply all that I’ve learned these last two years to my research and teaching.
🚨SO excited to see the IRS is answering ~90% of calls it receives, up from ~13% this time last year🚨
A truly remarkable stat—$80B investmt already transformative!
Reminder: when Rs propose defunding IRS, they’re saying let’s erase these gains, make agency worse at serving ppl
NEWS: The IRS is answering nearly **90%** of taxpayers' phone calls, up from **13%** a year ago.
It's hired 5,000 employees to staff the phones, funded by the Inflation Reduction Act.
Part of today's Post Politics Now:
Making corporations and the wealthy pay the taxes they already owe raises significant revenue and creates a fairer, more efficient tax system.
It is win-win, as this brief makes clear.
Bipartisan tax experts on need to invest in the IRS, per
@BudgetHawks
:
“higher funding will more than pay for itself by allowing the IRS to better collect taxes owed under the law while drastically improving Americans” satisfaction with our tax system”
Was only a matter of time; SO thrilled to see
@PikaGoldin
win the Nobel.
CG’s research is ofc pathbreaking, she changed the way we understand women and work.
She’s also an icon for women in econ: Her guidance and generosity has shaped the careers of so many in the field.
2023 economic sciences laureate, Claudia Goldin, provided the first comprehensive account of women’s earnings and labour market participation through the centuries. Her research reveals the causes of change and the main sources of the remaining gender gap.
#NobelPrize
This report is wild:
90% of unreported income from those making $1M+, who just don't file taxes!
Easiest form of evasion to identify, IRS asked for the resources to pursue, b/ "the proposal was never funded"
Adequate resources to police the $$$ is first order for tax reform
Beyond the sig revenue potential ($1B+ tax dodge for one firm!), investing in tax compliance is essential to ensuring a tax system that is equitable.
American workers pay all the taxes they owe; large corporations (and the executives who run them) should also.
It is only one data point, and there is much left to do--but the progress the IRS made this filing season is proof that the American people are *already* seeing a sig return on their $80 billion investment in the agency:
Audit rates for millionaires are down 75% in the last decade
Today, you are as likely to be audited if you are in the top 1% as if you are on the EITC
The result is a tax system that facilitates the kind of illegal games Trump has been playing for decades
Quite striking to see what’s happened to the workforce over the last 60 years relative to the US population.
Providing the IRS with the resources it needs is *only* way to ensure the agency can provide the services taxpayers deserve and collect owed taxes from high-end evaders.
Pretty amazing stat via Treasury I'd never seen -->
The IRS has *fewer auditors now than at any time since World War II*
The US had ~200 million fewer people at the end of WWII
I was!!! So grateful to speak at
@codeforamerica
Direct file pilot is *such* an exciting moment for tax admin
IRA investment in IRS finally gives agency resources to serve taxpayers, and you're already seeing results!
Read IRS's (106 pg!) report here:
🚨NEW PAPER🚨
@KClausing
and I have a Hamilton paper out today, “The Coming Fiscal Cliff: A Blueprint for Tax Reform in 2025”
Thesis: Policymakers should approach 2025 tax debates w/ eye toward raising $$$ to address deficits & pay for imp priorities, eg a fully refundable CTC
Quite a week for
@USTreasury
! Ben Harris is the heart and soul of the building, and we would be lost without him.
Feel so privileged to get to work with
@econ_harris
every day—now as my official boss, the Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy 🎉🎉🎉
Belatedly found my way to these lovely remarks by
@PikaGoldin
at the Nobel banquet earlier this month. Sharing here because I promise they will bring you joy.
IRS Comm. Rettig thinks tax gap could approach and possibly exceed $1T *per year*!!!
As a matter of revenue-raising, efficiency, and fairness--investing in tax compliance is first order for tax reform efforts.
Often think how lucky I am that my parents brought me to a US that welcomed them & helped us thrive
This country meant so much that they invited Pres Bush to my 1st bday—he declined, but sent a card
Trump Admin crusade against immigrants will have lasting consequences ⬇️
In 2017, Trump pushed a bill to cut legal immigration in half. It was so radically anti-immigrant even GOP lawmakers couldn’t stomach it.
Turns out he didn't need them.
He's quietly managed to halve legal immigration anyway -- entirely by executive fiat
85% of overdraft fees are borne by 10% of "repeat overdrafters" -- lowest income, most vulnerable consumers.
It is insane that we don't have stricter regulation of bank fees, and even more nuts that when banks shirk the (limited) rules we do have, they get off scot-free.
The House R stance is, I kid you not:
Support for Israel *as long as* we make it easier for $$ people to cheat on their taxes.
(Also btw hard to see how this qualifies as a budgetary offset since defunding the IRS *costs money*, per CBO).
High-income nonfilers (most obvious type of evasion, literally don't file) cost the IRS $66 BILLION from 2017-2020.
Funds from the IRA are finally helping the agency track them down.
Calling a rescission of those resources an *offset* is BONKER BANANAS!!!
Today's compliance proposal is about much more than $700B+ it will raise.
It is about tilting the scales of tax justice in favor of ordinary Americans--who already pay all they owe.
And away from the wealthy--who for too long have been able to outgun a gutted IRS.
No longer.
A well-functioning tax system requires that all taxpayers pay what they owe.
An unfortunate characteristic of the current system, however, is a difference in adherence to tax law based on income level. Noncompliance is concentrated at the top of the wealth distribution.
1/5 large companies paid nothing in federal taxes last year
In today's
@PostOpinions
with
@LHSummers
, we argue that taxpayers (and policymakers!) need to know why this is.
A thread:
Since SVB failed, many--incl the Biden Admin--have called for reversing Trump-era banking deregulation.
That's a step in the right direction, but wouldn't have prevented the crisis that unfolded at SVB.
Much more is needed. My latest in
@PostOpinions
:
Oh good, it's starting already.
Reminder: you voted for ~$2T in tax cuts.
Other reminder: In the middle of a pandemic w/ desperate need for stimulus $$ (and interest rates so low!) means absolutely not the time for this nonsense.
Senate committee talk from Graham: If we keep the Senate which I think we will and I become Budget chairman. I'd like to create a dialogue about how can we finally begin to address the debt.
A bipartisan group of former IRS Commissioners appointed by Presidents Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Obama agree:
The Biden Administration's tax compliance initiatives will raise $700B (at least!) and create a more efficient and equitable tax system.
There’s been a lot of chatter about how the IRS will deploy new resources
So this by
@crampell
could not be more timely—look for yourself at a tax system that today is “held together by scotch tape” and understand why $80B for the agency is so important
Terrific by
@mattyglesias
on the need for a robust investment in the IRS.
This would mean more tax collection from the wealthy, who today underpay knowing a gutted IRS lacks the resources to pursue them.
As Matt emphasizes, would also mean improving taxpayer services for all.
The Admin’s compliance initiatives raise $700B+/10 yrs.
But even more imp—shrinking tax gap means ending a tax system where ordinary Americans pay their fair share; and wealthy tax cheats don’t
No wonder that those who benefit from inequities are ones fighting to preserve them
🚨New paper alert🚨
The Inflation Reduction Act’s Impact on Tax Compliance—and Fiscal Sustainability with Mark Mazur
Headline: We estimate the IRA IRS investment will generate at least $560B in new tax collection/10 yrs.
Paper:
Thread ⬇️
@SecYellen
on the importance of info reporting
When IRS has third-party info, compliance 95%+
W/ no reporting, compliance under 50%
Bit of info to the IRS will help end two-tiered tax system, where ordinary workers pay what they owe; $$ who accrue income in opaque ways do not
"There's an enormous tax gap in the U.S. estimated at $7T over the next 10 years in terms of a short fall of tax collections to what we believe are owed," says
@SecYellen
. "It comes from places where the information on income is opaque and can be hidden."
For House Republicans, tax policy appears to be less about raising revenue and more about satisfying wealthy donors.
My latest in
@PostOpinions
:
A thread ⬇️
Today, IRS doesn't have the resources it needs to go after high-earners and the corps they own
Result is 3% of GDP lost every year in owed, but uncollected taxes
As a matter of revenue-raising, efficiency, and most imp justice: investing in tax compliance is first order
Partnerships and S corporations get little scrutiny from the I.R.S., making it tempting to use questionable or even illegal strategies to lower their tax burden.
The fact that the this processing is manual meant more than 1 million hours of IRS employees’ time was spent adjusting one return at a time.
Think about the savings that could accrue (and benefits to taxpayers IRS could provide!)—if agency had the resources it needs to automate
Douglas O'Donnell, deputy commissioner of IRS, says adjusting accounts to make unemployment comp non-taxable for 2020 was a manual process, taking 4-6 minutes per return.
Not so bad, right?
But there were 14 million of those.
Terrific from
@RepRoKhanna
on imp of giving gutted IRS resources it needs
Left unaddressed, tax gap=$7.5T over a decade (3% GDP!)
Wealthy disprop fail to pay fair share
@LHSummers
, Rossotti, and I estimate investmt in compliance raises $1T+
Key to fair, efficient tax system
"Everyone should agree on this simple principle, that you ought to pay the taxes that you owe, it seems to be the essence of the American sense of fairness,"
@RepRoKhanna
says. He has introduced legislation that would beef up the IRS with $70B.
There is a whole lot of misinfo about the bank reporting proposals under consider, that
@SecYellen
clears up here:
One imp one: Those protecting $$ evaders push myth this proposal means IRS will see every transaction above $600 in all bank accounts
That is completely false.
“There’s a lot of tax fraud and cheating that’s going on.” Treasury
@SecYellen
tells
@NorahODonnell
the proposed $600 IRS reporting requirement for banks is “absolutely not” a way for the government to peek into American’s pocketbooks but to hold billionaires accountable.
In rare cases when the IRS goes after wealthy & corps they owe, they are stuck in disputes that last for years
Outmatched by those who can spend basically infinite resources to push back
As this great story by
@paulkiel
details
We are at a time when the world is appropriately focused on injustices in criminal law enforcement
Those same inequities exist in tax administration
Five counties w/ highest audit rates are all predominantly African American
Lots to like here, especially *thrilled* to see the Biden Admin's focus on tooling the IRS to pursue evasion by the $$$
A short thread on what's been accomplished so far since the IRA's historic investment in tax administration, and all on the horizon:
I’m also so thankful for my colleagues at
@PennLaw
and
@Wharton
, who have been so supportive of my work over the years. Leaving is with a heavy heart—I feel so lucky to have been at Penn. It is just a remarkable institution and community.
Result of gutted IRS is a two-tiered tax system
Compare 99% compliance for ordinary Americans
To $750 tax bill for Donald Trump
🤞 come January, things will change
Given revenue needs, investmt in IRS shouldn't be where tax reform efforts end
But must be where they start
SO exciting to see a feed full of the next cohort of Econ PhDs!
Congrats to all! This profession needs you. And, despite its flaws (that you all can help redress!), it is a wonderful community full of brilliant people trying to understand the world--and make it a little better.
Hard to overstate the severity of the problem at the IRS and the deep inequity created.
Ordinary workers are fully compliant with their tax obligations.
The companies and wealthy executives that employ them are often not.
Giving IRS resources and info needs is SO important.
@gabriel_zucman
@akbarpour_
If you thought the efficiency story was true, you'd expect that as resources declined revenue wouldn't have fallen as much -- not what we see, there's a 1:1 decrease
It's actually not that surprising when you remember that IRS tech is from the 1960s and in need of sig overhaul
Estimates suggest $1 to IRS for enforcement—> at least $12 in additional taxes collected.
Giving IRS resources it needs is no-brainer!
Raises revenue, improves efficiency and equity of tax system.
Portman, at a Tax Policy Center event, says he's now willing to provide more $$$ to IRS for enforcement. Praises Rettig and the implementation of recent changes to improve taxpayer service/rights.
Beautiful Anita Summers tribute:
"She told me to do the right thing and do it as well and passionately as you could, whether it was raising your children, teaching your students, advocating the policies you preferred or trying to get legislation passed."
Just beyond bonkers to have as a pillar of your "debt plan" making it easier for the $$ to cheat on their taxes which ***ADDS TO THE DEFICIT***
Here's the CBO score the last time Rs proposed IRS cuts, which was House Rs *first bill!* in Jan -
So much for fiscal responsibility.
MCCARTHY DEBT PLAN - the "Limit Save Grow" bill.
- Debt ceiling to 2024
- Cut to FY 22 levels
- 1% growth per year
- Cut climate credits in Infl. Reduction Act
- Cut at least some $ to IRS
- COVID unspent $ clawback
- Some GOP energy/permitting reforms.
- More work requirements
As
@LHSummers
and I have argued in past, regulators have to figure out how to incorporate market info into prescription of bank health
Stress tests are perfect vehicle to do this! Should supplement annual stress-testing with a market-based approach
My take on the stakes of Moore in
@postopinions
:
Tl/dr: SCOTUS must rule against the Moores. Failing to do so, even in a narrow way, risks more Moores—cases that draw into question long-settled (and clearly constitutional!) areas of the tax code.
Really excited to see from
@RoKhanna
and
@RepPeterDeFazio
IRS fails to collect $600B of owed taxes/yr, disprop from $$$
Yet, top 1% as likely to be audited as EITC recipients
As matter of fairness, efficiency, revenue-raising--this must change, and these proposals will help
In my dissertation, I wrote “Claudia Goldin has been more than an advisor to me – she has been my grad school champion, my role model, and my dearest friend. I wish a Claudia Goldin for every graduate student.”
Nothing could be more true
So very grateful and so very proud 🥲 ❤️