Claudia Sahm
@Claudia_Sahm
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macro, Fed, fiscal. creator of the Sahm rule, a recession indicator.
Joined June 2014
“They need to take their balance sheet down and redeploy that money to Main Street …” Uh? What?
Kevin Warsh on Fox Business: The Fed can “lower interest rates a lot” to get mortgage rates down. Warsh also says the Fed should shrink its balance sheet to “redeploy that money to Main Street so that Main Street can have the strong economy that we’re seeing in financial
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Trump tariffs are pushing US trading partners to buy from other countries. It's weakened US roll in global trade and attendant influence and threatens dollar’s supremacy. Contrary to Trump promise, his tariffs cannot restore lost manufacturing jobs. Read Full Article:
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That’s not criticism of ADP. They must have a business reason for cutting the Fed off. It’s just a reminder that ADP is not the BLS. Incredibly bad timing for the Fed to lose both.
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“Private companies are not in the business of creating public goods, which is what economic statistics from the government are. “ … from my piece in August, reminder here
bloomberg.com
Government statistical agencies provide breadth and context that private firms can’t match.
Federal Reserve officials, who are unable to receive U.S. economic statistics due to the continuing government shutdown, recently lost access to a separate measure of employment data from ADP, a payroll-processing firm whose data-sharing with the central bank has been public for
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🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
The US Supreme Court refused to allow President Donald Trump to immediately oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook while she sues to keep her job
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NEW: Every living former Fed chair (Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen) ... have joined several former Treasury secretaries (Rubin, Summers, Paulson, Geithner, Lew) ... and CEA chairs (Hubbard, Mankiw, Romer, Furman, Rouse, Bernstein) who served presidents of both parties ... in an
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First Fed Governor tweeting. I will give props to that.
Today I worked through the arithmetic of how I came to my policy projections for appropriate monetary policy. There's a lot of numbers in the speech, but given the divergence between my views and other FOMC members, I felt it necessary to be meticulous and transparent.
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The reason to have technocrats in charge of rates is not that they always get it right, but that they don't get it consistently wrong like politicians causing inflation. Technocrats follow the economic data and apply their expert judgment. They are not focused on winning the next
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I do not expect Powell to take on the President in the presser, but it would be a critical time to remind everyone -- the White House, Congress, markets, regular people -- why political control of interest rates is a bad idea.
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Trump threatened to fire Cook during the speech and did so the next week, though courts kept her on so far. Today, a current White House official voted on monetary policy. The wheels are coming off the data-driven, independent Fed. Not completely off, and maybe the Supreme
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"Monetary policy is not on a preset course. FOMC members will make these decisions, based solely on their assessment of the data and its implications for the economic outlook and the balance of risks. We will never deviate from that approach." Powell last month in Jackson
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In her first comments since being fired, the former BLS commissioner says the agency has lost 20% of its staff since January due to cost-cutting measures Keeping the agency operational turned into "a constant high-wire act” due to interference from DOGE https://t.co/IcqR9cpZji
wsj.com
In first public remarks since Trump removed her, Erika McEntarfer says she wanted to modernize federal statistics but the agency got caught in DOGE’s crosshairs.
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A Duke University survey of former Federal Reserve officials and staff suggests caution as the central bank meets this week. Respondents expect inflation to remain above the Fed’s 2 percent target over the next year or more, while unemployment is likely to stay near 4.5
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Higher prices were a huge issue in the last election — people are still angry about it — so to see policymakers be so cavalier about risking more inflation is mind blowing.
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“Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” Politicians (or their surrogates) controlling interest rates ends badly. It matters.
Some Senate Republicans said they were not concerned about how independent Miran would be after speaking with him. North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis said that he was not convinced that Miran would be independent — but that he didn’t see it as a problem because Miran’s term would
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BREAKING: The DC Circuit has *rejected* Trump's bid to fire Lisa Cook from the Fed board, allowing her to participate in tomorrow's interest-rate setting meeting. Trump's last hope is a quick stay from SCOTUS. https://t.co/wNtfx9GWW2
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“The stock market is filtering the economic data, and it sees good things going forward,” said Claudia Sahm. “Households are seeing that same reality and coming down pretty pessimistic.”
washingtonpost.com
Major stock indexes have climbed steadily upward through one piece of bad economic news after another.
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