Claudia Sahm
@Claudia_Sahm
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macro, Fed, fiscal. creator of the Sahm rule, a recession indicator.
Joined June 2014
He quit in protest of QE2 in late 2010 when the unemployment rate was 9% … in the interview he could come up with no substantive reason, even in hindsight, for the Fed to ease then.
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It’s a good intro to Kevin Warsh, but watching it I kept thinking he’d have been a hawkish dissent for a hike last week and no reserve management purchases.
@biancoresearch Very good interview with Warsh. Also note that Kevin Warsh and Stanley Druckenmiller are professional colleagues, with Warsh serving as a partner at Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office. - Fed's Role: Druckenmiller faults the Federal Reserve's easy money policies for
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“We had more people working on Friday than in the history of our country..” Uh, what data is he referring to?
Trump: Inflation is totally neutralized. We may get it a little bit lower. You don’t want deflation.
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Respectfully disagree.
Trump said he thought the next Fed chair should consult with him on rates. “Typically, that’s not done anymore. It used to be done routinely. It should be done,” Trump said. “It doesn’t mean—I don’t think he should do exactly what we say. But certainly we’re—I’m a smart voice
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Good news.
NEW: The Fed's board of governors voted unanimously on Wednesday to reappoint 11 reserve bank presidents to new five year terms beginning next March 1. (Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic had previously announced he would retire at the end of his term in February)
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Alt-data offers a fuller picture of the economy, but raises transparency challenges, Claudia Sahm writes in F&D magazine. https://t.co/WeQCCeEAzR
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One of Powell's gifts is to bring calm into tumult. We will miss that next year. The Fed will be part of the tumult.
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It’s Fed Day! Policymakers are expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, but what will they signal about the path ahead? 🎥 Tune in as @JonathanJLevin joins @Claudia_Sahm and @AllisonSchrager for LIVE analysis: 1:55pm ET
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It’s Fed Day tomorrow! Policymakers are expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, but what will they signal about the path ahead? 🎥 Tune in as @JonathanJLevin joins @Claudia_Sahm and @AllisonSchrager for LIVE analysis: Wednesday, 1:55pm ET
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Time to retire the "low hire-low fire" description of the labor market. It's "low hire." That's a problem even without layoffs spiking.
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Even if SCOTUS creates a "Fed exception" when it overrules Humphrey's Executor, maintaining Fed independence in practice will be tough. Fed's practical independence and the legitimacy needed to sustain it grew alongside the independence of other agencies 1/4
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I have participated in the 'Fed Chair sweepstakes' like any good Fed watcher. It matters. But **absolutely pivotal** is the Supreme Court decision on Lisa Cook next year. If the President can remove members of the Board without review, it's game over for Fed independence.
“Big changes that could happen at the Fed, in terms of the Supreme Court allowing the president to remove a Fed governor,” said Claudia Sahm. “I think at the end of the day, the economy’s going to drive where rates go. But it could be a pretty uncomfortable
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“Big changes that could happen at the Fed, in terms of the Supreme Court allowing the president to remove a Fed governor,” said Claudia Sahm. “I think at the end of the day, the economy’s going to drive where rates go. But it could be a pretty uncomfortable
marketplace.org
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates next week as predicted, and Kevin Hassett becomes Fed Chair, where will rates be at this time next year?
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#PuffiSays who me? did I sneak into your webinar today? … yes, you did. I hope you’re pulling for a rate cut, too.
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“Kevin Hassett is more than capable of doing the job of Fed chair, it’s just a question of who shows up,” said Claudia Sahm. “Is it the Kevin Hassett who is the active participant in the Trump administration? Or Kevin Hassett the independent economist?” https://t.co/vVlxSgAWFl
ft.com
Some market participants worried candidate for top central bank job will be swayed by Trump on interest rates
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Powell: “[George Shultz] often said that trust is the coin of the realm, and that good things were only possible where there was mutual trust.” Lands heavy today.
federalreserve.gov
I am deeply honored to have been asked to speak here today about the remarkable legacy of George Shultz. Just to be clear, I will not address current economic
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If the White House really wants to ease the burden of tariffs, it should look to Canada, which has become a global leader in making consumption taxes more equitable, says @Claudia_Sahm
bloomberg.com
President Donald Trump is promoting the idea of sending a $2,000 check to most Americans funded by revenues brought by his tariffs on imports. The scheme has received a frosty reception from Trump’s...
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thankful the BLS is back!
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“By Powell not being out there right now, he’s letting every single member of the Open Market Committee have a voice and be listened to,” said Claudia Sahm. “He’s giving them space to have this disagreement, and that’s actually a good thing because this is tough and you should
bloomberg.com
Division at the Federal Reserve has intensified in recent weeks, with officials staking out disparate positions ahead of the central bank’s December policy meeting — all while Chair Jerome Powell...
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“In some ways, this administration could have come in and done nothing and made progress on inflation,” said Claudia Sahm. “But the policies they’ve chosen have created extra costs for businesses, and businesses tend to pass on costs.”
nytimes.com
From the day he took the oath of office, the president has pursued policies that are making life in America less affordable.
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