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RT @opinion: Private companies that publish economic data are in the business of making a profit, says @claudia_sahm, but government statis….

RT @CardiffGarcia: The key part of the letter that we (@InnovateEconomy) sent to Congress earlier today calling for appropriate fundings an….

RT @opinion: The new budget law counts on better economic growth to help increase revenue, but its provisions on immigration will make that….

RT @KEBroady: •How do #cities attract and retain skilled workers at different life stages?. •What role do local amenities and #economic con….

Automatic stabilizers are fairly common, such as progressive income taxes. (One more reason to dislike tariffs and One Big Beautiful Bill is they are regressive and weaken the stabilization.).

RT @opinion: It’s Fed Day tomorrow. How is the rate-setting committee thinking about rising oil prices and tariffs?. 🎥 Tune in as @Jonath….

Piece with several examples: hiring rate, job openings, and breadth of job gains:

Three years ago, widespread concerns about a recession arose, but it didn’t happen. That false signal has some questioning the concerns now about a recession. The risks to the economy differ, and so do the buffers. The labor market is much less a buffer.

The clearest message from the Michigan survey is not for the Fed. It’s for the White House. In recent years, the survey has picked up sharp pessimism about inflation. Now it’s picking up sharp pessimism about tariffs. Americans’ dislike of inflation — and tariffs— is firmly.

There are reasons to be skeptical of the inflation expectations reported in the Michigan survey. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the Fed should be more confident about other measures that show anchored expectations. We will have to watch this one grind out in the data.

Skeptical #3 . If people expected inflation to be in double digits over the next several years, then they might be expected to buy now, before prices rise. There's been an increase in the share of people who say it’s a good time to buy household durables. But far less than the

Note, Michigan is particularly vulnerable to outliers. First, the transition to online survey last year led to a large rise in the outliers. The New York Fed survey which is also online asks the same people repeatedly about their expectations, which research shows lower reported.

Skeptical #2 . Consistent with confusion, the outliers of very high inflation are no longer outliers. One in 5 respondents say inflation will average 15% or more in the next 5 to 10 years. Highest fraction ever.

Skeptical #1 . Rise is on news of tariffs, not experience with rising prices. It’s not surprising that consumers struggle to translate unprecedented tariff increases of 25%, 30%, or even 145% into forecasts of inflation or may not realize that tariffs typically cause a one-time.

Tariffs are raising inflation expectations — but will they reshape behavior and lead to persistent inflation? . I am a big fan of the Michigan Survey and asking people about expectations more generally, but my @opinion piece today comes down as being *very* skeptical of the rise

RT @opinion: In recent years, the long-running Michigan survey of consumers has picked up pessimistic opinions about inflation. Now, says @….

Lovely to wake up this morning with my cancer treatment in the rearview mirror. Chemo, surgery, radiation done! And most importantly it was successful. Forever grateful for all the well wishes and support.

“Fifty years from now, you will want to be able to look in the mirror and know that you did what you thought was right, in every part of your life. At the end of the day, your integrity is all you have.” Jay Powell