Ishan B
@Ishanb22
Followers
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Following
1,277
Media
142
Statuses
1,207
Bringing more degens to DeFi @scrib3_co | Probably the first to call out the FTX Ponzi & short it (Pinned) | Angel @0xPolygon + more
Austin, TX
Joined June 2020
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
Im taking all of my capital out of
@FTX_Official
and going short $FTT 📉
FTX has been swinging and missing all year long on so many activations
AND
Something shady is going on at FTX.
Here's 12 reasons why I'm completely out on the FTX mafia and
@SBF_FTX
: 🧵👇
[1/20]
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FTX is dead.
The deal with Binance is dead.
Billions of dollars - dead.
Some thoughts on the FTX debacle and where things are going from here...
But first, why should you listen to me? 🧵👇
[1/34]
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Don't mid-curve this.
Coinbase ($COIN) is the next TRILLION dollar company, and it's staring you right in the face.
Here's 4 BIG reasons why: 🧵
[1/26]
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FRAMEWORKS FOR TOKENOMICS
Tokens + Economics = Tokenomics
Good luck understanding ANYTHING in Web3 without having a grasp on Tokenomics
Here are some of my favorite frameworks for better understanding tokenomics: 🧵
[1/15]
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The Next Generation of Stablecoins: Solving The Free Float Dilemma
Any “stablecoin” pegged to $1 is NOT stable
Your stablecoins (like $USDC and $USDT) are INFLATING in price AND supply, anon.
But the next generation of stablecoins can solve for this: 🧵👇
[1/25]
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The Trillion-dollar market DeFi is disrupting that no one is talking about:
Tokenized Corporate Bonds (On-Chain).
The current (notional) value of the bond market is $128 TRILLION
And DeFi is going to AT LEAST 2x it. Here’s 7 reasons why:
[1/16]
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The most bullish use case for crypto has been right under our nose the whole time.
It’s what will make Ethereum a multi-trillion dollar asset:
Stablecoins for remittances are inevitable & will make DeFi the global backend payments network.
Here’s 6 reasons why: 🧵
[1/15]
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So just remember kids:
- Not your keys, not your crypto
- Never trust crypto twitter cult figures
- People that are post-economic are rarely motivated to innovate
- NFA, DYOR
[19/20]
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The bull case for $FRAX
@fraxfinance
as “The Central Bank of the Internet”
DeFi is building the monetary infrastructure layer of the internet and Frax is going to be the Central Bank
Here’s why 🧵:
[1/23]
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Binance FUD is dumb
$1B outflows in 24hrs is nominal and they have the holy liquidity trinity:
-Biggest exchange
-High usage token/L1
-Stablecoin
Tether/Bitfinex is WAY riskier than Binance:
-Mid-tier exchange
-Shitty exchange token
-Shadier stablecoin
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@QwQiao
@HardhatChad
You went through that entire argument only to say that Solana may be the final form which is directly contradictory to your entire tweet that’s crazy lol
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@ShaanVP
@cz_binance
What if I told you I saw you this coming a month ago
Im taking all of my capital out of
@FTX_Official
and going short $FTT 📉
FTX has been swinging and missing all year long on so many activations
AND
Something shady is going on at FTX.
Here's 12 reasons why I'm completely out on the FTX mafia and
@SBF_FTX
: 🧵👇
[1/20]
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4. Top Execs Leaving
FTX US CEO
@BrettHarrison88
Alameda CEO
@AlamedaTrabucco
Head of OTC and institutional trading leaving “quietly”
Either something shady is happening, or these guys are post-economic.
Either way, im out.
[5/20]
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2. DEX and derivative volume is up
Besides being in a bear, FTX is losing derivative market share to decentralized products.
@GMX_IO
@GainsNetwork_io
and
@mangomarkets
are all slowly gaining market share
DEXs are just more efficient with less overhead expenses.
[3/20]
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Well, I predicted the FTX collapse - over a month ago
Shot my shot and it went in 🤷
I guess this is how
@stephencurry30
feels - except right now since he's an FTX investor too lol (too soon?)
[2/34]
Im taking all of my capital out of
@FTX_Official
and going short $FTT 📉
FTX has been swinging and missing all year long on so many activations
AND
Something shady is going on at FTX.
Here's 12 reasons why I'm completely out on the FTX mafia and
@SBF_FTX
: 🧵👇
[1/20]
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I just still can't wrap my head around how they could have possibly lost $8B of customer deposits.
It's like having the answers to the entire test but bubbling the answers in the wrong order and getting a 0.
You literally know everyone's trades - HOW CAN YOU LOSE?!
[31/34]
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7. Bad Bull Market Decisions
They made the awful decision every degen makes during the bull.
Buy flashy things you probably shouldn’t.
Like paying $200M for naming rights to the Miami Heat Arena.
Bet they wish they could have this one back.
[11/20]
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Love what the
@GainsNetwork_io
team has been building - my favorite trading protocol atm
🍏>🫐.
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1. Volume is down
Let’s get the easy one out of the way. Yes we’re in a bear, but Volume is still down ~ 75% down from its peak.
They’re doing 3-4B in volume some days. Those are Dec 2020 levels
Less volume = Less fees = Less revenue.
But that's just the start..
[2/20]
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That's a wrap!
If you enjoy dumping on FTX:
1. Follow me
@Ishanb22
for more FUD
2. RT the tweet below to stop your frens from being exit liq
[20/20]
Im taking all of my capital out of
@FTX_Official
and going short $FTT 📉
FTX has been swinging and missing all year long on so many activations
AND
Something shady is going on at FTX.
Here's 12 reasons why I'm completely out on the FTX mafia and
@SBF_FTX
: 🧵👇
[1/20]
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Just met a billion-dollar Japanese retail giant
They're building an OP Stack L2 focused on gaming for all of the Japanese anime IP they own
We're so early.
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Who’s in the FAANG of DeFi?
Lido
Aave
SNX
CRV
UNI
MKR
Anyone I’m missing? This list is pretty fire - all primitives, keep shipping, maintained market share etc
We've figured out where aggregation points are and who the long term incumbents will be in DeFi. We've figured out some protocols are features and are likely to be rolled into larger incumbents
If you squint a little bit you can see the FAANG of DeFi assembling
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While most of this was just speculative FUD, where theres smoke - theres fire.
Remember,
@jimcramer
telling you that Bear Sterns wouldn't collapse, the day before it dropped from $62 to $2 and got bailed out?
[18/20]
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My take:
We're pretty fucked.
Will easily take all of Q1 23 to fully understand how deeply fucked everything is
Rising rates + potential Giga recession doesn't help either...
[30/34]
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Second, Im a DeFi analyst and content writer.
I've written for a handful of top 100 market cap DeFi projects and other household names in Web3
Some of which may have FTX on their cap table 👀
(PS: If you're a DeFi project who needs help with content - hit me up!)
[3/34]
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Listen: if we’re all insolvent, maybe we can keep moving money to each other so we can take quick proof of reserve snapshots so no one will know we’re all insolvent
@gate_io
@HuobiGlobal
@cryptocom
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Also, FTX Stocks is proof that instead of going deeper and more crypto-native with their product selection, they’re looking for easy money outs to increase volume and fees.
FTX is just constantly on the wrong side of everything this year
[17/20]
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5. Market Manipulation Allegations
What shady things can be happening at FTX? Glad you asked.
Allegations of Price Manipulation by Waves CEO
[6/20]
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@GMX_IO
@GainsNetwork_io
@mangomarkets
3. Splintered Attention
Instead of focusing on one goal - like making the best possible trading product, attention is getting splintered
FTX NFTs - massive failure
Sam talking about buying twitter or joining Elon’s bid.
This has also led to…
[4/20]
Messages from the court filing (Recreated)
Will MacAskill, SBF Advisor
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Allegations of listing $CEL in order to allow naked shorting and tank the price or cause multiple short squeezes
This went from meme to creating a bad brand for the FTX crew. Trabucco talking about going fast on his yacht doesn’t help their cause either.
[7/20]
Why are journalists so excited to make my stepping down about something other than a desire to go fast over the nice water
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10. Sam’s political Aspirations
@SBF_FTX
- 2nd largest donator to Biden campaign
“Spends a lot of time in DC”
Very disappointing: FTX and Sam got very quiet on the Tornado Cash issue - would've been nice to see them speak up a little louder
[14/20]
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If you like this tweet then you’ll definitely like
@DeFiRoast
2x/wk, never more than 3 minutes
Daily DeFi news and analysis straight to your inbox, for free!
Subscribe below! ⬇️
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That's a wrap!
If you enjoyed this thread:
1. Follow me
@Ishanb22
for more of these
2. RT the tweet below so you can front-run this shitshow like me!
[34/34]
FTX is dead.
The deal with Binance is dead.
Billions of dollars - dead.
Some thoughts on the FTX debacle and where things are going from here...
But first, why should you listen to me? 🧵👇
[1/34]
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Love what the
@GainsNetwork_io
team has been building - my favorite trading protocol atm
🍏>🫐.
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6. Stablecoins
FTX took the lazy way out and made the basket of stablecoins.
The path to being the full on crypto central bank requires having a stablecoin. Bitfinex, Gemini, Binance all have stablecoins tied to their exchanges.
[9/20]
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Wanted a place to compile everything going on - will probably do a deeper dive into the impacts/post-mortem when things settle down a bit
Takeaways:
-Not your keys, not your crypto
-Never trust CT cult figures
-Decentralization
-Where there's smoke there's fire
[32/34]
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12. The FTX product
The only improvements FTX has been making are performance improvements in latency.
That really only helps high frequency traders.
Most quality HFTs i know are looking at MEV rather than arbing spreads across exchanges and scalping pennies
[16/20]
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They misread the market as being winner take all, while its increasingly obvious that multiple stablecoins will have a place in the market.
This was a massive oversight.
Missed out on a multi-billion (potentially trillion) dollar opportunity.
[10/20]
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8. FTX Ventures
Have you seen FTX Ventures Investments recently? Pretty underwhelming for an A Tier Brand and a big name team
Few of their recent investments:
-30% of
@Scaramucci
fund?
-Messari Series B?
-Doodles insane $54M Raise?
[12/20]
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I meet atleast 2 founders PER WEEK building in Web3 out of India, and more specifically Bengaluru.
Prediction: Bengaluru will be in the same conversations as SF, ATX, NYC, London, etc as a major tech hub (esp in Web3) in the next 5 years
Bullish on India tech.
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This man is literally dying and still taking shots
I can’t wait for the sequel/revenge arc when SBF comes back for CZ
CT is literally an anime lol
20) At some point I might have more to say about a particular sparring partner, so to speak.
But you know, glass houses. So for now, all I'll say is:
well played; you won.
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This went from meme to creating a bad brand for the FTX crew. Trabucco talking about going fast on his yacht doesn’t help either.
A brand of price manipulation is going to make volume go elsewhere.
Less volume => Less profitable to market make => Liquidity leaving
[8/20]
Why are journalists so excited to make my stepping down about something other than a desire to go fast over the nice water
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Best possible regulatory outcome:
- Government totally separates DeFi from CeFi (good)
- Exchanges get regulated at the highest possible levels (better)
- DeFi gets largely left alone and is allowed to thrive (best)
Totally possible outcome
@twobitidiot
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Shoutout the
@GainsNetwork_io
team 🫡
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2. The Speculative Rumor Mill
a) Its likely that the original hole in the Alameda balance sheet was caused by Q2 losses (Luna/3AC contagion)
@lucasnezzi
points out that they may have begun heavily collateralizing FTT and borrowing against it to help fill this void.
[10/34]
1/ I found evidence that FTX might have provided a massive bailout for Alameda in Q2 which now came back to haunt them.
40 days ago, 173 million FTT tokens worth over 4B USD became active on-chain.
A rabbit hole appeared 🧵👇
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@LucasNezzi
c) 10% of Multicoin AUM is stuck on FTX
Weren't they supposed to be the first 1000x fund?
I'd feel bad but I interviewed with
@Multicoincap
once and didn't get a second call smh.
Probably a pretty expensive mistake 😂
[21/34]
SCOOP: Multicoin Capital hit by FTX collapse, with 10% of its fund's AUM stuck on the exchange
by
@Yogita_Khatri5
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$AAPL, $GOOG, $MSFT, $AMZN, $NVDA, and $TSLA
These companies are (or have been) >$1T MC
Why? They have multiple businesses that have helped them scale.
Here are Coinbase's big 4:
1. Coinbase Consumer
2. Coinbase Institutional
3. Coinbase Services
4. Coinbase Onchain
[2/26]
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@LucasNezzi
@multicoincap
h) Bitcoin miners are underwater and could begin capitulating.
Could see some crazy capitulation from BTC miners or some could go insolvent since they're down so bad
But honestly who even cares about $BTC anymore? Boring.
[26/34]
Many Bitcoin miners are now turning their rigs off.
Bitcoin's electrical cost has just been breached for the 2nd time only in 5 years. The electrical bill for the average miner is now greater than the income earnt.
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Coinbase Ventures
One of the more impressive institutional VC portfolios in crypto:
-Uniswap
-Arbitrum
-Graph
-Starkware
-OpenSea
-Arweave
-Consensys
Exposure across the board: Gaming, infra, DeFi, NFTs etc.
[12/26]
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This is how TradFi boomers sound about DeFi
Who needs free 24/7 access to billions in liquidity?
Why do you need $.01 fees for remittances I can just wire money for $25
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Woah….
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@LucasNezzi
@multicoincap
j) NFT market getting killed on $ETH and $SOL.
Maybe i'll finally be able to buy a punk? 🥺
[28/34]
In the wake of
@FTX_Official
's stunning collapse, the tanking prices of $ETH and $SOL are hitting NFT marketplaces hard.
@camlearnscrypto
reports:
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@LucasNezzi
i) No one left to work at FTX US
Can't blame them either. They were kept in the dark the entire time.
Last week, they thought they had one of the best jobs and equity packages in all of tech.
This week they have neither job nor equity.
[18/34]
FTXUS employees - specifically - have all turned on SBF and are furious. I’ve spoken with dozens of employees over the last 12 hours and it’s safe to say everyone feels completely betrayed.
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1. Things you need to know:
a) The Binance deal is dead.
This confirms that this hole in customer funds was so big that CZ couldn't justify it.
The calculus for the decision was probably:
Value of customer acq + Goodwill gained vs cost of filling the hole = -EV
[5/34]
As a result of corporate due diligence, as well as the latest news reports regarding mishandled customer funds and alleged US agency investigations, we have decided that we will not pursue the potential acquisition of .
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@LucasNezzi
b) Entities w/ FTX & Alameda Exposure
This is just scratching the surface. Its going to get really grim from here.
[20/34]
📢Calling all researchers! 🧵 Incoming but this is the contagion we know so far. Please provide info in the replies if you know of others so I can compile & share.
Thoughts 💭:
✅ALOT more contagion WILL come out
✅Entities w/FTX & Alameda exposure will be short targets
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New
@scrib3_co
re-brand is now live!! Has been a long time coming but couldn't be more proud of what we've been able to build over the past year!
From a team of 3 to 50+ all through the depths of the bear and we're just getting started
gm - today is a big day at SCRIB3...
We're excited to unveil the fresh SCRIB3 brand + website
We're crypto-native writers, PR/BD pros, designers, strategists, analysts, etc. and the brand needed to reflect that
Now, it does 🫡
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@LucasNezzi
@multicoincap
k) Alameda still has a shit ton of tokens that they will probably have to dump
Take your once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to front-run Alameda for all the times you got front run lol
[29/34]
Btw Alabama still has a shit ton of tkns to (probably) dump
(most notably $6m of $SUSHI, $3.5m of $LIDO & $3.2m of $SRM)
What a fkn shitshow
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@LucasNezzi
h) $8B hole in the balance sheet 🤯.
And without new capital FTX is bankrupt. Gameover unless we get an incredible white knight to save everyone.
Which is not likely bc for $6B-$10B you can just start your own exchange and not have to deal with the baggage.
[17/34]
[DB] FTX Faces Liquidity Shortfall of Up to $8 Billion, Seeking Emergency Funding to Meet Withdrawal Requests: WSJ: WSJ
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So lets hop in!
We'll split this up into 3 sections:
1. Things you need to know (the facts)
2. Speculation and rumor mill
3. Contagion and the impacts from this shitshow
Lets go!
[4/34]
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This Liquid Staking Derivative (LSD) narrative rotation has seen every staking-adjacent project bump 20-40% this week:
$LDO
$FXS
$STADER
$RPL
$BTRFLY
New narrative forming that Shanghai upgrade will not be bearish and many will continue staking
Expecting a ~20% $ETH Bid NFA
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I continue to be fascinated by the “Business Development” position in Web3 start ups.
A unique mix of enterprise/B2B sales + a master of relationships and network in the space
Always blown away by how surprisingly value add and needle-moving elite BD guys are
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Put all of these together and you’re staring at a Trillion Dollar biz over the next decade.
Don’t Mid-Curve this, anon. No other asset is exposed to the industry like this at scale
Asymmetric and diversified bet
Something, something, be greedy when others are fearful?
[26/26]
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@LucasNezzi
@multicoincap
e) Jump has been VERY quiet.
They're still likely hurting from the $320M hole they had to plug from the Wormhole hack + $LUNA & $UST losses.
The quietest ones are the ones you need to worry about most and we know they have extensive $SOL exposure.
[23/34]
Jump has been remarkably quiet on the
@FTX_Official
events. They undoubtedly had massive exposure to the current contagion.
IMO: the ones who are quietest are worth watching 👀
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d) Withdrawals are locked and users are selling their account balances for pennies on the dollar
Unfortunately, without a white hat to bail out FTX - billions in user funds are probably never going to be recovered (or users will have to wait 10+ years like mt. gox
[8/34]
Customer funds stuck on crypto exchange
@FTX_Official
are being firesaled for cents on the dollar via over-the-counter transactions.
@0x_tracy
reports
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@LucasNezzi
3. Contagion: we’re just getting started
a) FTX investor List: You can likely consider all this written off - will reverberate throughout Web2 and Web3.
Companies are going to be pushed to be more profitable so investors can mark higher and returns look better
[19/34]
FTX investors:
BlackRock
Ontario Pension Fund
Sequoia
Paradigm
Tiger Global
SoftBank
Circle
Ribbit
Alan Howard
Multicoin
VanEck
Temasek
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One massive silver lining through the $USDC de-peg:
Holders always retained full optionality and sovereignty over their funds.
The choice to sell your funds at .90 on the dollar (although stupid) and de-risk is a fundamental right.
Can’t imagine how many $SIVB customers would…
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1. $FPI
@fraxfinance
FPI is a stablecoin pegged to the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
FPI uses the unadjusted 12 month inflation rate reported by the Fed and uses a chainlink oracle that commits this data on chain immediately after its release.
[5/25]
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@LucasNezzi
f) $SUI and $APTOS treasuries may be stuck on $FTX?
This doesn't include the equity that FTX ventures (and Alameda?) have in these projects that will get shopped around at a heavy discount
[15/34]
Wait all of aptos/sui treasury is on FTX? This is according to Delta Blockchain Founder on CNBC right now.
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Its been ~1 year since we launched
@Scrib3_co
✍️
We’ve scaled from 3 to a team of 50+ of the most crypto-native folks in the industry
Some thoughts on scaling a crypto biz through one of the deepest bear markets 🧵
[1/6]
gm - today is a big day at SCRIB3...
We're excited to unveil the fresh SCRIB3 brand + website
We're crypto-native writers, PR/BD pros, designers, strategists, analysts, etc. and the brand needed to reflect that
Now, it does 🫡
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@LucasNezzi
@multicoincap
i) Many oracles in DeFi use FTX prices for their price feeds.
This could be an attack or manipulation vector.
Imagine we start getting hack season on top of all this lol
There are no more highly profitable trading strategies left 😂
[27/34]
prices are going to be a nightmare for oracles. Be careful with Defi positions that depend on them.
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@LucasNezzi
e) Rumors that Genesis margin called Alameda for $300M.
Genesis is big, but not very many counterparties that can eat $300M in bad debt.
[14/34]
Hearing rumors that Genesis margin called Alameda for ~$300M. Unsure of when or whether they paid out.
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Coinbase Bank has:
-Direct Deposits into Coinbase
-Payroll for businesses
-Retail loans against crypto (currently deprecated but with recent SEC/XRP case could be brought back)
-Coinbase Debit Card (IMO best UI + Earn program, which is a revenue generator)
[7/26]
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Just thinking about all the trades we made back in the FTX days. I would trade it all for one more night with U.
U don’t have to respond just want u to know that
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There are 3 narratives happening right now:
1. The Merge
2.
#RealYield
3. OFAC
Theres only one play that gives you exposure to all 3 narratives
Enter
@manifoldfinance
AKA the
@1inch
for MEV services
Lets break down the biggest convergence of narratives we’ll see this year
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Coinbase Bank
If you haven’t been paying attention, Coinbase has been slowly building the infrastructure to be the largest, most complete, Neobank in the world.
Self-Custody is like Cash. You need it, but stuffing your life savings in a mattress doesn't make sense.
[6/26]
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b) Alameda, FTX ventures, and now FTX website are all down.
Not the sign of a solvent organization lol
[6/34]
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Hear me out: no more market makers like Alameda to help exchanges get liquidity
We can automate that entire MM business model based on total liquidity for pairs
We’ll call it, an Automated Market Maker
Problem solved
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e) SEC investigating FTX and FTX US for use of customer funds.
Gensler is coming for us all.
[9/34]
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Theres almost $7 BILLION worth of $DAI in circulation
Between OFAC/Tornado Cash, USDC blacklisting etc I've been waiting to hear from the
@MakerDAO
community on their thoughts
Lucky enough
@JasonYanowitz
had
@hexonaut
and
@MonetSupply
on
@theempirepod
and I took some notes: 🧵
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Excited to come out of a mini-stealth mode and share what I've been working on the past few months!! 🫡
Good morning builders, unprofitable traders, shitposters, copypasters, gigabrain anons and everyone in between 👋
Time for us to come out of Twitter hibernation 🐻💤
A primer on SCRIB3, the
#1
technical marketing studio for DeFi, infrastructure and technology-first protocols 👇
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@LucasNezzi
b) $50M+ Sol could be hitting the market today from validators unlocking stake
Could be a long night for the $SOL boys
[11/34]
There's now ~53.6M $SOL scheduled to be unstaked in 16hrs time from now, when the current epoch completes.
That's potentially $1B USD (SOL @~19) worth of selling pressure.
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@LucasNezzi
d) FTX US approaching every major US exchange to acquire them.
If investors get wiped we could be in for a long 2023.
[13/34]
Rumors circulating that FTX US has approached all major exchanges to be acquired, only Gemini and Kraken have shown interest. Equity from selling the business would first flow into backstopping losses from FTX customer deposits. Investors would be wiped completely.
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Trust is another key factor for the consumer business.
73% of adults trust Coinbase.
In a category (CEXs) where opacity is the norm - trust is a moat and this moat already has 100M+ globally active users.
[5/26]
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@LucasNezzi
@multicoincap
f) Galaxy reveals they have $76M with FTX.
They’re definitely still hurting from their Luna losses too
Tough year for Galaxy :(
[24/34]
Galaxy Digital reveals exposure of $76.8 million of cash and digital assets to FTX
$47.5 million is currently in the withdrawal process.
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Crypto’s best PMF has been disintermediating markets
Replacing middlemen with immutable contracts while unlocking new market efficiencies
And there's a specific market that has yet to be disrupted...
Shared some thoughts w/
@Blockworks_
:
[1/7]
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@LucasNezzi
g) Which is being speculated to be up to 70% discounted.
Even 70% seems doesn't seem like enough at the moment lol
[16/34]
Rumors circulating that FTX Ventures and Alameda's VC am is currently doing a fire sale of their venture holdings. Taking up to 70% discount on some token warrant deals.
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In early tech categories, great UI wins.
Apple
Airbnb
Slack
Netflix
Adobe
All massive companies in emerging categories that have been able to onboard and keep sticky users.
Also, amazing UI allows you to charge absurd fees (CB= ~.5%, 5x Binance's fee).
UI premium.
[4/26]
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You know who has a strong and sustainable earn program?
Ethereum PoS
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You either live long enough to buy all the Sol at $3
or you lose all your money before you can fuck off smh
[33/34]
@coinmamba
I'll buy as much SOL has you have, right now, at $3.
Sell me all you want.
Then go fuck off.
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