Sam Trabucco
@AlamedaTrabucco
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Former CEO + crypto quant trader @ . Sports were too hard so I did math instead. Not investment advice.
Joined May 2020
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Pinned Tweet
Bigger is Bigger (when Betting is Better)
A thread about getting it in good.
(And a title about mocking
@SBF_Alameda
's little puns)
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Today was the first time I've been woken up because the market was moving in a while -- it's the biggest move we've seen in months! What happened?
A thread about history.
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Well. Crypto's crashed quite a bit in the past few days, leading up to a GIANT crash (BTC touched sub-$30k!) a few hours ago. It's ticked back up somewhat since, and started bouncing around a bit. What happened?
A thread about lemons and lemonade.
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I thought we got Evergrande out of that canal months ago
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I like how many people are apparently learning for the first time how insane U.S. government is.
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I went to school for math. I got trained in quant trading, and eventually shifted to quant trading in crypto. Over time, I've relied less on math and more on intuition, e.g. for analyzing Elon's tweets.
Yesterday I looked at ... cartoons? for 4 hours.
A thread about adapting.
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I have an idea for a stablecoin algorithm:
- When you wanna create it, you send in dollars
- When you wanna redeem it, you are sent dollars
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Haven't done one of these in a while: what happened in the crypto markets today?
A thread about the past and the future.
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Much love to everyone -- I'm sure the past few days have been dark for many and I hope the road ahead is brighter.
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1. Alameda is not affiliated with REEF.
2. Alameda does not endorse REEF.
3. We agreed to an OTC trade with REEF; they immediately went to the press to brag.
4. They then reneged on the OTC trade.
5. We obviously do not recommend anyone do business with REEF in any way.
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It's been a weird few days in the markets -- both crypto and non-crypto alike. But honestly, it's all starting to feel a little familiar ...
A thread about efficiency.
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Not sure which of them should be more offended, the outgoing CEO whose resignation caused a 10% rally or the incoming CEO whose appointment undid it
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BTC hit $60k again and my entire feed is cubes, PROBABLY NOTHING
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folks I’ve been on vacation for weeks, your aggression is mis-targeted (though the market’s dark cloud has also overtaken this vineyard)
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I appreciate all the entry-level trading position job offers guys but I’m going to have to pass for now
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Word on the street is: this price graph is fucked up. What happened?
A thread about the calm, the storm, and how to tell the difference.
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I initiated a wire and
@Chase
canceled it and locked my account due to suspicious activity until I call them, and the wait time is 90 minutes! I'm so happy my funds are protected.
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Well, we're back (and then some, as of writing). What happened?
A thread about where we've been, where we are, and what's different about them.
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Kidding, of course, but it has been nice to once again confirm the existence and efficacy of USDT's redemption mechanism! Alameda did a ton of 'em today.
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The insane price swings of the past day merit a follow-up to this thread -- as well as an updated interpretation of what's been going on in the markets more generally.
A thread about inefficiency.
It's been a weird few days in the markets -- both crypto and non-crypto alike. But honestly, it's all starting to feel a little familiar ...
A thread about efficiency.
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I'll miss all of it -- I genuinely will. But if I've learned anything at Alameda, it's how to make good decisions -- and this is the right one for me.
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Starting to see a little chatter about this, so just to quell it before it gets worse, Alameda hasn't been selling UST and doesn't have any particular plans to.
Not investment advice, etc. etc.
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TBH I'm so happy that I get to think about coins instead of pictures today.
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For a few weeks, BTC was boring -- it only moved like 10% over the course of (plural) days. I hope you all caught up on sleep, because crypto is now fun again! What exactly has been going on?
A thread about the calm and the storm.
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Up until the last day or so, the market has been stuck in a fairly consistent "zone" for a bit now. It's honestly been sorta ... boring?
A thread about X.
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Let's look at two investors, Adam and Beth. Both are 25 years old, both make $200k/year (lump sum) and expect to keep doing so for their careers (not realistic, but let's just use that for now). Adam invests it all in a 5%/year fund, Beth's fund is 50/50 to make +30% and -10%.
Volatile asset = not a good investment is a common fallacy — likely not a great idea for retirees to put all their $ in, but high risk high reward is the prototypically best thing for young people to invest in.
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Spoke with North American Bitcoin miners. They committed to publish current & planned renewable usage & to ask miners WW to do so. Potentially promising.
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I throw the term "expected value" (EV for short) around a lot. What is it, and, more important, why is it the thing that matters?
A thread about the median and the mean.
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hey bitcoin, counterpoint, it's the weekend and I was having fun
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It's with the same goal that I'm announcing today that I am stepping down as co-CEO of Alameda Research --
@carolinecapital
will continue on as Alameda's CEO. I will stay on as an advisor, but otherwise will not continue to have a strong day-to-day presence at the company.
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bonkers how people just instantly 100% believe every shitty “news” story they see
A few notes on the balance sheet info that has been circulating recently:
- that specific balance sheet is for a subset of our corporate entities, we have > $10b of assets that aren’t reflected there
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Why are journalists so excited to make my stepping down about something other than a desire to go fast over the nice water
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And the biggest takeaway for me was just how familiar today's move still feels -- it's been a few months, but it was really just the same thing with a slightly different spin.
History repeats again, and I've got a feeling we've not seen the last of it.
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Volatile asset = not a good investment is a common fallacy — likely not a great idea for retirees to put all their $ in, but high risk high reward is the prototypically best thing for young people to invest in.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren says cryptocurrencies need more regulation.
“What’s happening right now…it’s a Wild West out there," she tells
@TheStalwart
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Reminder, “sold” and “will sell” are not the same just like “bought” and “will buy” are not the same; typical discourse around this kind of thing tends to be almost totally flipped (not investment advice etc etc)
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There's been some chatter about the recent
@StargateFinance
auction, and I wanted to clarify a few things about Alameda's involvement.
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I can't believe 20 years ago we had commercially available supersonic flight (Concorde) and just collectively decided not to anymore.
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Increasingly seeing crypto trading-types express delta opinions about, e.g., the S&P 500.
My advice: be *super* skeptical of virtually anyone who claims to have edge delta-trading the S&P 500, very few of the world's best traders believe they have any edge doing so.
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“My dad likes traditional tokens and my mom likes dog coins ... if you dig deep enough it’s why they got divorced” — alameda employee
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Quick thoughts on the congressional hearing that's wrapping up.
A thread about the "future of finance."
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The set-up is the same every time:
- futures are at really high premia -> this suggests aggressive buying
- OIs going up -> this suggests the buyers are opening positions
- number go up -> this means there's *net* buying
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What other things? I'm really not sure, exactly. Lately I've been really happy, spending a lot of time traveling, visiting friends and family, working on "myself" and whatnot. Also I bought a boat, that's been cool. I needed to relax, and I'm really, really happy.
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I'm gathering from twitter that I can feel vindicated for never looking up what "stock to flow" means
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I like how no one really knows what the word "recession" means.
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“Even with vaccines we should quarantine” people give me ETH maxi vibes
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The crypto market has been very active this week -- and that makes sense, considering all that's been going on in the U.S. What's actually happening though -- and why?
A thread about efficient markets.
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March 12, 2020 was the hardest* day** of my life. A year later, it sticks out more clearly as the most interesting situation I've ever been faced with -- and one from which I've learned a ton. Here are a few lessons I learned directly from March 12:
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In fact, trading at the END of any of these periods is a predictably awesome trade -- the goal is finding it.
It seems like MAYBE today marks yet another paradigm switch? We'll have to wait and see -- Alameda's new long positions are sure hoping so.
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A thread about why THIS caused today's sell-off and not China.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Grimes break up after three years together: NYP
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And all these led to Alameda doing what we do best -- buying a LOT more over the past day or so. This isn't quite "sell us all you want below $30k and fuck off" territory, but we're continuing to buy down here, because it really just seems like too much points that way.
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2 years ago, Alameda maintained pretty strict delta neutrality most of the time, generally trying quite hard to make sure our PNL was from spreads and arbs. Today, not so much -- we got ... uh, really long in winter 2020, for instance. What changed?
A thread about super powers.
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My secret plan to turn Alameda into a long-only fund gets so much easier when it's "+EV" to buy the dip so often.
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have you ever seen su zhu and putin in the same room
Russia 'Defaults On Foreign Debt' For First Time Since Bolshevik Revolution Amid Western Sanctions
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To address a lot of tags I’m getting:
- Alameda is obviously buying FTT right now, I never thought we’d see a dip like this vs. the market again, best trade I know of.
- If Alameda *were* to be intentionally putting on an aggro FTT position, Binance isn’t where we’d do it.
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Joking aside -- I think this has felt pretty productive and not at all antagonistic (on either side) so far.
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Q: Why do gay men make good traders?
A: They can always tell the top from the bottom.
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First off: we did indeed buy all the tokens. We love the team and what they're doing, and we believe this space and the technology they're building is really important.
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It's hard enough to be a great "level one" trader -- figuring out what's happening and reacting. The next level up is even harder as it requires figuring out how others will react to what's happening and reacting to *that*.
But it's where the $ is, so it's where we'll be, too.
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If anyone ever faces this choice I will pay you $20k for your winnings from the coin flip.
Would you rather have $10,000 guaranteed or a coin flip chance of $100,000?
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So the dude who got fired for being a homophobe etc was bad ... but crypto rallies a ton despite equities for the first time in weeks and the homophobe dominates my timeline???
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Look at these two images -- one is my comment on Slack at 4:05am (Asia time), and one is BTC's price graph at 4:06am. Am I the best trader in the world?
A thread about decisions and results.
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At least 3 people who’ve been around Alameda forever cried at this.
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The most bitter lemons can make the best lemonade -- you just need a good recipe (I think this is just sugar, which makes sense). Make sure you're ready for next time if you weren't this time!
Because lemme tell you: lemonade is good.
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One of my first crypto trades was setting up a bot to scrape his twitter and buy his weekly promoted coin, easy to forget how much real influence he had.
RIP.
I have a million followers but I'd be surprised if even 1% bother to read my tweets.
Ramblings of an old man lost in a near infinite Twitter verse - like tears in rain.
As you may guess I'm having a down day.
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On a plane to Miami, thinking about the topic of the panel i’m on: Is it possible to time the market? It’s a great question, and one my priors were REALLY wrong about.
A thread about being wrong and making money.
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What Alameda is trying to do still astounds me, to some degree. A tiny team -- ten people, at some points, not even triple that now -- trying to build the world's best crypto quant trading firm, and OTC desk, and MM service, all 24/7. It sounds impossible.
1) Long overdue, and bringing titles in line with what reality has been for a while:
Congratulations to some of the most impressive people I know,
@AlamedaTrabucco
and
@carolinecapital
, the CEOs of
@AlamedaResearch
And
@nateparke
, its CTO
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This is a little cliché but I finally feel like I understand what love songs are singing about.
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It’s crazy that we can just tap credit cards now but they’re still in the form of a credit card
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We'll see if we're right! For a quant team we do put on fairly big delta positions longish-term, and I've been glad that it's been this direction so frequently -- bull markets are way more fun.
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It's the biggest I have ever seen by volume (not by price move or whatever but liquidity is up so much since the last one like it).
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IMO being named "Magnus" is a dead giveaway you're gonna be the best at something, you've just gotta figure out what it is.
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Was told — standing inside a Chase bank — that none of my three (3) valid forms of ID would suffice to withdraw $5k cash and I had to wait a week.
The Bitcoin ATM next door took 5 minutes.
I can feel that soon I will not need a bank account and I'm so ready for that day
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Have been seeing a lot of chatter about this, here’s our stance
happy to return the Voyager loan and get our collateral back whenever works for voyager
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Like folks, I’m gay and think he’s dumb but also, half the world agrees with him and I don’t have time to think about him
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I’m just a kid who liked math and playing games and got lucky that combining the two with a once in 1000 lifetimes opportunity led me here.
I’m just a kid from the neighborhood building products I love, on stage with absolute galaxy brains
LFG 🔥
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I guess that's about it. My time at Alameda has been the most formative of my life. I've learned how to think, I've found out how far I can push myself, and I've been gifted the incredible experience of being in the trenches with lifelong friends -- and *winning*.
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Have been away from work for 2 days did I miss anything?
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Studying the typical SNL episode structure to try and understand when a DOGE mention would be the most natural, AMA.
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If you *are* expecting it, the best move is to sell beforehand (we weren't so we couldn't). Barring that, though, there's still plenty you can do -- the best and most predictably great thing is to buy the HUGE dip -- buying right here has just never not been awesome.
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FWIW this is the sort of move which hasn't happened in quite some time:
- big moves have basically all been driven by liquidations lately
- ESPECIALLY "low-liquidity" ones such as on weekends
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