Vance Spencer
@pythianism
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Co-founder @hiframework , board @endaomentdotorg , formerly @netflixjp . nothing I tweet is financial advice, views my own.
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Joined July 2017
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if you have money on nexo, now is the time to consider withdrawing
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crypto is exactly where it needs to be right now
very much not dead, very much alive, washing out the excesses, very much building things people want to use
coiled spring on a path to hypergrowth
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What happens when Coinbase tells 56M Americans, who have 9M ETH on Coinbase, that they can stake and earn 5-10% on their Ethereum?
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the first/last time I ever talked to
@SBF_FTX
was saturday night
apparently he'd grown so mad I was going after his corruption and lies in DC, calling out
@MarkWetjen
, he got my # and gave me a call
ftx had been trying to set a call up for a while but i had rejected it
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im old enough to remember when jack cut off twitter api access to a generation of startups and killed them
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certain forms of speculation are normalized
you can take out an 90% loan-to-value mortgage and no one bats an eye
you can gamble high six figs on a liberal arts degree - on credit as a minor - and everyone says congratulations
but god forbid u buy a few internet coins
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Surreal. Larry Fink talking about crypto as a "flight to quality". Gentleman
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The real max pain will be crypto OGS selling $BTC at ~$100K and watching institutions take the ride to $400k+
Patience
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go tell the 12,000 people at eth denver we are in a bear market
we simply do not give a shit
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I think the next 12-24 months will be life changing for many people, but it will be an emotional journey with ~5-10 20-40% dips
Rule
#1
is stay in the game - spot long and chill if you are new here
Makes me very sad to see people get blown out
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after the ETF goes live normal people will be able to invest in crypto instead of just the mentally ill
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ETH 2.0 will be the birth of an industry
the staking industry
where you earn property
that is untaxable at receipt
unless you sell
run do not walk
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a very wise man once told me that you don't measure net worth peak to peak across cycles
you measure it trough to trough
this has stuck with me
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I could tell you all the war stories from '18-'20 bear
Playing Tronbet to make money to pay rent, moving into Michael's parents basement for a summer, selling the 401k at the depth of the bear to buy more ETH and make tax payments, bank overdrafts
But none of that matters
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looking back through the fog of war, the data points that are revealed today uncover pieces of the puzzle from last year
if FTX was selling client BTC/ETH to buy SOL/FTT/SRM - this has large implications about what organic ETH/BTC price action looks like going forward
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you may not have bought the bottom
but
you did read some really good macro threads
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GM, it is good to be back. Here is where we are by my estimation.
We are 280 days out from the BTC halvening and a spot bitcoin ETF looks to be coming by the end of the year, if not sooner. No doubt this will lead to other ETF opportunities for other cryptoassets.
Ethereum has…
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uniswap doing $2bn in volume per day through autonomous smart contracts built by a handful of employees and you are worried about inflation
my dudes
deflation is the real problem
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coinbase is a great company but needs to stop dicking around with this trash
if you spent 5 minutes on CT you know POND isn't legit
stop the retail meat grinder
ship staking, ship basic features like USD->USDC on prime, improve custody, get better analytics, launch futures
Our POND-USDT trading pair will now enter limit-only mode on
@CoinbaseExch
, Coinbase Pro and Advanced Trading. Limit orders can be placed and canceled, and matches may occur. Market orders cannot be submitted.
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This is crypto with rates at 5.5%. Imagine what happens when rates are cut to 2-3% in the next 18 months.
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Every bear market I re-underwrite why I am in crypto
1. Large untapped market (money, culture, games)
2. Lack of competition (very few trad people in crypto, still extremely early)
3. Large, liquid outcomes (already at $1Tn aggregate market cap, likely goes to $10-$20tn)
4.…
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coinbase in 5 years
probably no orderbook, trades routed to open source liquidity where they LP, focus on frontend/regulatory/staking/custody, earn most of income from LP/staking native tokens of KYC'd DEX's, serve primarily as a wallet for users
asset light
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we were once pinged by an international non crypto whale looking to acquire a size position of ropsten eth
someone had told this person that ropsten eth was the best way to play the merge, and he was intent on getting a fill
never forget this is who we are playing against
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generally I think people deserve second chances
if we institute cancel culture in crypto we are ngmi
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sorry to everyone that got hurt today
much love
we will rebuild the industry, there is a plan
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i had heard so much about SBF - bill gates, warren buffet, etc - i expected to be blown away on the call
what i got instead was a bumbling 🤡 who tried to gaslight me on DCCPA, again, and when that didn't work, threatened regulatory consequences for framework if I didn't support
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the greatest minds of a generation
all saying gm to each other
gm
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When no milllenials/zoomers can afford a house and job prospects are limited don't be surprised when P/Es for zeitgeisty tech stocks/crypto going vertical even with higher rates
Interest rates don't matter to millenials/zoomers; they have no savings and little prospect to ever…
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2021 narrative = Alt-L1s have solved blockchain scaling, ETH 2.0 is too little, too late
2022 narrative = Alt-L1s haven't been able to scale, most/all have structural issues, ETH 2.0 + rollups are the most viable to scale blockchains in the near term
funny how things change
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watching GBTC liquidity and lenders exposure to said product for contagion risk
seems someone is selling a lot of GBTC
discount is now >40% and widening, implied BTC price is $9K, and a lot of GBTC is sitting in toxic places atm
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Going to be hard to compete with the Ethereum onboarding funnel
- Gaming L2s (IMX, Ronin)
- Corporate L2s (Base, Worldcoin)
- Social L2s (Lens, Farcaster)
- All of the other (hundreds?) of L2s spitting out tokens to acquire users
They will all use ETH as their base currency
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legal/good ponzis: medicare, medicaid, social security, government bonds, the food pyramid, being 30 trillion in debt
illegal/bad ponzis: generally our stuff, new things, crypto, optimism, new ideas, unprofitable startups, gen Z, avocado toast
thank you
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serious question what is the value of funding another alt L1 if blockspace is already cheap and getting 10-100x cheaper via ETH scaling next 12 months
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There is no problem with DeFi
This mess is on opaque CeFi exchanges
We should all strive to build more decentralized and transparent systems
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Alpha hiding in plain sight - surely it can't be this easy ?
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There were many times when crypto would not have been strong enough to survive without BTC as the dominant narrative
I no longer believe this is the case
Regime change is coming
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I think we break the collective hallucination that L1s are valuable because reasons this cycle
ICP is trading at a 37,210x multiple to earnings, ATOM is at 231,000x, Aptos is infinity, DOT same
Not sustainable. At some point trash goes to 0 under the weight of VC unlocks
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A founding team in crypto is three people
CEO, CTO, Community Manager/Cheerleader
Getting someone to shape community early is paramount - you literally can't hire this person later on
How much market cap do you think
@ChainLinkGod
has added to Chainlink?
Few/Soon
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Always surprised there are people who actually short crypto. Look at the SOL chart, clearly someone just got carted out.
IMO most crypto shorts are ppl trying to run a tradfi-esque L/S book. They think we are playing in the NBA. Sir we are playing slamball in a bounce castle.
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would love to see
@elonmusk
turn the twitter API back on to 3rd party developers
twitter intentionally killed a lot of startups back in the day by shutting this off, mostly out misplaced fear
this is not the way
let the devs do something!
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I don’t really see a way for Gen Y/Z to survive the Baby Boomer/Silent Generation looting spree other than to take long shots on alternative assets that explicitly give the middle finger to both corporate equity and the traditional financial system
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With fresh ATHs the class of 2021 is now OG
Congratulations if you stuck around
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normies are outside staring directly into the sun and you are bearish crypto
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So yes, I am optimistic, and am looking forward to a continuation of the cycle shortly
This shakeout was needed. Teams getting paper rich and distracted. Incentives misaligned. Dog coins pumping. Focus lacking.
Now we separate the few from the many so we may prosper once more
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Can you imagine the pride of a boomer seeing their IBIT BTC go up 3.21% today right out of their 401K, telling their friends, the envy of the neighborhood
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everyone should work at a startup at least once in their life
the adult daycare email job will always be there
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ukraine resolves next couple months, oil goes down, inflation down gradually, fed hikes once/twice, we permanently memory hole covid
wyd
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these are the good old days my dudes
make sure you enjoy them
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crypto is too focused on the on-chain super complex crypto native crypto games
most of the best crypto games will be fast casual games that incorporate minimal aspects of crypto to boost monetization and retention
CT will hate this
but it will bring in so many new users
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Deploying Into Computer Coins While Multiple Geopolitical Schisms Threaten WW3 And Rates Peak
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Crypto has not yet spent meaningful money on marketing, both relative to adoption or the addressable market
For example, Coinbase spent $56M on marketing in 2020, Netflix spent $2.5Bn
With minimally dilutive financing available to companies via going public, this will change
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have a theory that crypto twitter is actually the product and the coins/mcap are just the backend to keep score
but I don't think we are ready to have that conversation yet
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this is the first positive public hearing on crypto that I can remember
congress seems to have done their homework, industry seems prepared and synchronized
still not sure what stellar is doing there
very bullish - could be the start of a trend
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launching a token in a bear market is a far better long term plan for getting distribution and community alignment than launching it into peak euphoria bull market
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Someone asked me whats next today
A few things
- Halvening, ETH ETF, increasing instutional adoption
- DeFi earnings and revenues scare superlinearly with price. At least two will have $1bn in revenue in next 24 months
- Games bring 100M people into crypto in 2024/2025
- An…
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No one is optimistic enough on these ETF flows. We've had $4.5Bn of inflows in the first week, albeit bricked by -$3.5Bn of GBTC outflows that will fade in time.
To put it in context, its like 30-40 Michael Saylors worth of yearly buying
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if you ever see the CTO wearing a suit and the CEO wearing a henley T just know the CTO wants to be the CEO and he will eventually rug to do so
tale as old as time. send it to zero
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List of current/future narratives:
- On Chain Fixed Income / RWA / Stablecoins
- ETFs / Institutional Adoption
- On Chain Social / On Chain Casino
- DeFi Incumbents Scaling Earnings / DeFi FAANG
- Gaming / Asia
- BTC Halvening / ETH Staking
Thats honestly a lot of meat
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the era of the crypto megafund has begun
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I saw things you wouldn't believe
steth depegging sub .90 as we became backstop bidder
curve pools emptying despite jump firing in every clip it had
chinese whales trying to buy 9 figs of goerli eth off of us
all these moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain
milady
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Seems like polkadot stopped producing blocks ~7 hours ago
Does anyone have a list of all ETH killer downtime/crashes (Solana, Polkadot, etc)?
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web3 music startups doing 1 of 3 things imo
1. packaging up royalties - catalogs as a new asset class
2. artist nfts + token communities - web3 fan clubs, expanding price elasticity of fan continuum
3. reinventing labels via a DAO structure - crowd sourcing the next big thing
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it is clear now that crypto won't just be fintech
it will be everything
just like you don't understand how facebook runs on databases/graphql
every major tech category will have elements of blockchain in it
have already gone 0-1
now 1-n
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Some food for thought. Most VCs in crypto have not even raised new funds yet, but looks like most will get a capital reload in the next 12-18 months
Hard to imagine we are anywhere else than the beginning of the cycle as a result
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the 2 most exciting products released by coinbase probably ever came out this week (coinbase pay, coinbase on-chain access)
this style of progressive product development aimed at bringing users on chain gives me a lot of hope for the future of coinbase
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The Prometheum fraud is one of the wildest things I've ever seen
We need to get people talking about this
Multiple layers of crime, like a crime onion
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The 1-3 year setup:
Macro:
Geopolitical instability + gold bid + interest rates peaking + dollar peaking + deficit narrative + return of money printer
Crypto:
ETF/Larry Fink Cycle + RWA narrative + Web3 gaming launch + ETH, BTC institutional adoption + Regulatory clarity
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volunteered for ron paul's presidential campaign in 08 in high school after reading about it on reddit
the main policy planks were to audit fort knox to see where the gold was at, lower taxes, and abolish the fed
in retrospect the man was truly based
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Money is great, but participating in the birth of an industry is a once-in-every-other-generation opportunity
Make the most of it - your ancestors were shoveling shit for some land baron
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If these are your senators, start calling
DEMS
- Padilla
- Carper
- Lujan
- Hickenlooper
- Cantwell
- Markey
- Merkley
- Sinema
- Warner
- Van Hollen
- Gillibrand
- Bennet
- Rosen
- Cortez Masto
- Ossoff
- Peters
- Manchin
GOP
- Collins
- Romney
- Cassidy
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Confident we will see Blackrock set a 1 day and 1 year inflow record with their BTC ETF
Larry didn't come to play fiddlesticks
He came to win
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Crypto is a technological wave that will touch almost every aspect of people's lives in the coming decades
Blessed to be chasing the dream of a more inclusive and innovative financial system with my best friend, an incredible team, and incredible backers
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1/ As the largest $ILV holders outside the team we've gotten some questions on what we plan to do with our tokens when unlock happens
We're not selling, we've agreed to extend our lockup voluntarily, and the tokens are held within a 10 year lockup fund
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ETH network state vs. USD/US state system
- ETH has no debt - doesn't owe boomers trillions for medicare, social security, etc
- ETH has no inflationary problems - supply/demand balanced
- ETH is growth oriented in a digital context
- ETH has shared values closer to GenX/Y/Z
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the boomers are giving each other crypto awards again
I don't see a single frog, punk, or ape avatar here, so this can't be right
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after a true capitulation event you have ~months to buy the bottom
when i've bought post-capitulation i've felt physically sick, and the bet is usually smaller than i would've liked as a result
central tenets of crypto are questioned and there is career risk to even buying
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we really only need 1 crypto game to work and show the rest the way
once we know the path the consensus will rapidly converge and you get the virtuous flywheel of vcs funding and an order of magnitude more games building
same thing happened with defi - “compound moment”
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I suppose at this point we can all agree there's at least some use cases for self-custody and trust-minimized assets outside the existing system
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We've made 16 investments, ~6 have launched
The other 10 are teams that are trying legitimately new things, net new code, no forked bs, pushing the space forward
I'm sick of the food coins and the ponzis and the never ending games of musical chairs with 0 innovation
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Defi going 100-1000x from here
Federally Chartered Banks and Thrifts May Participate in Independent Node Verification Networks and Use Stablecoins for Payment Activities
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Hedging alts that are locked up on perps is incredibly dumb. This was popularized by SBF to get VCs to put cash on FTX, squeeze them, demand more collateral, squeeze again
The real flywheel is blowing out the hedgooors on the way up, keeping the cash, starting a polycule
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is there a more beloved product in crypto right now than
@zapper_fi
these french canadians just ship product and grow constantly
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days like today are painful but we will be back, my conviction in crypto has never been stronger
no government bailouts, we sort this out amongst ourselves
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