Charles Edwards
@caprioleio
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Founder @Capriole_Fund and @The_Ref_io . Posts not investment advice.
Joined February 2018
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🚨 𝗠𝗔𝗝𝗢𝗥 𝗕𝗜𝗧𝗖𝗢𝗜𝗡 𝗧𝗢𝗣 𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡𝗔𝗟𝗦 🚨
Forget price targets. This is a list of cycle top signals to watch.
How far away is the cycle top? Is it in?
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Bitcoin is below Electrical Cost now.
The average miner is facing serious stress.
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The Euro is at 20 year lows.
The Yen is at 24 year lows.
The Pound is at 37 year lows.
We are seeing the collapse of ponzi currencies into hard currencies. First all fiats collapse into USD, then the USD into Bitcoin.
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Many Bitcoin miners are now turning their rigs off.
Bitcoin's electrical cost has just been breached for the 2nd time only in 5 years. The electrical bill for the average miner is now greater than the income earnt.
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Historically every time MVRV z-score reclaimed 3.0,
#Bitcoin
went on a parabolic price run for the next 1-2 months.
Bitcoin just reclaimed 3.0
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It's a Bitcoin miner bloodbath.
Most aggressive miner selling in almost 7 years now.
Up 400% in just 3 weeks!
If price doesn't go up soon, we are going to see a lot of Bitcoin miners out of business.
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The world's biggest Bitcoin miner is going bust. This is what happens when Bitcoin trades below its production cost for too long.
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This is historically the optimal time to allocate to Bitcoin. All prior Bitcoin cycles had bottomed by this point in the halving cycle. We have less than 100 days until all the other cycles went vertical. I am getting very excited. Not investment advice.
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Textbook perfect Bitcoin "Bump & Run Reversal" bottom is back and the target is over $100,000.
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Bitcoin miners are in pain and selling more than they have in almost 5 years!
Introducing: Bitcoin Miner Sell Pressure.
A free, open-source indicator which tracks on-chain data to highlight when Bitcoin miners are selling more of their reserves than usual.
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Welcome to a new paradigm.
Bitcoin Electrical Cost is now a whopping $77.4K.
This is the raw electricity cost to power the network, per Bitcoin mined.
Bitcoin Miner Price hit $244K on Saturday!
This is the block reward + fees per Bitcoin mined. It boomed as transaction fees hit
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Holding
#Bitcoin
in 2020 is like shorting the housing market in 2008.
It will hurt in the short term, but you know how the story ends.
#TheBigShort
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Hash Ribbon buy signal!
The
#Bitcoin
miner capitulation has officially ended today, making it the 3rd longest capitulation in history at 71 days.
This capitulation zone was longer than 2021, and just two days shorter than 2018's where price touched $3.1K
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How can you be bearish when the first nation to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender saw adoption crush traditional banks in just 3 weeks.
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What a day
👉 Microstrategy now buying up to an additional $1B Bitcoin
👉 Morgan Stanley has applied to SEC to launch a Bitcoin ETF
👉 BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, confirms they are getting into Bitcoin
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Almost half the Bitcoin network has gone offline in just 48hrs.
The Bitcoin Hash Rate is down 40% today, as a result of the Xinjiang blackout.
One province in China represents a significant share of the Bitcoin network
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Yesterday, Grayscale bought 8X the daily Bitcoin mined.
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15,000 Bitcoin being sucked out of Coinbase per week.
Yes, that's more than $1/2B a week.
Yes, more institutions are buying.
Expect the headlines to follow.
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The Fed is pivoting. The language starts soft and preps the market. Right on schedule for Q1.
So we have:
- Ultra undervalued Bitcoin
- Leverage completely wiped out
- indications of a changing policy
The stage is set.
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The Bitcoin Hash Rate is down 40% today, as a result of the Xinjiang blackout.
One province in China represents a significant share of the Bitcoin network
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We are seeing the 3rd highest Bitcoin Miner selling of all time. The level of Bitcoin miner stress today is seconded only by 2 other occasions. The 2 other times? Bitcoin was just $290 and, get this... $2.10!
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The 2024 Bitcoin halving will be the most important Halving of all time. Bitcoin is about to become the hardest asset in the world with certainty. The inflation rate of Bitcoin will drop to half gold's, overtaking gold as the best store of value in the world. A big turning point.
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Here's what really happened to gold.
It didn't go sideways for 10 years. Hard money had a massive breakout.
It's just 85% of that capital flow goes to
#Bitcoin
now.
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This is huge.
Square is selling double the Bitcoin that is made.
...and now Paypal is doing the same.
Paypal is almost 3X Square. We already know Grayscale is consuming a similar magnitude.
This is a Bitcoin supply crisis.
Base case: expect huge price moves from
#Bitcoin
.
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Basically Bitcoin looks incredible here on most metrics, but leverage traders have gone out of control.
We won't get sustainable price rises until that changes.
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Half the Bitcoin network has now been shutdown by China.
Bitcoin hash rate at levels of mid-2020.
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This month's Bitcoin drop is the largest monthly drop ever.
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Pleasantly suprised by the lack of euphoria as we approach $60K
#Bitcoin
Just like October 2020.
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The move from 30K to 60K was driven by institutions.
The move from 60K to 100K is about to be driven by retail fomo.
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The $4K base in the 2018 bear market lasted 126 days.
The $19K base in 2022 is at 125 days so far.
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We are moments away from one of the biggest companies in the world announcing they own
#Bitcoin
What do you think the rest of the S&P500 will do after that?
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New evidence for a
#Bitcoin
double bubble.
In prior cycle tops, bounces were never able to hold unrealized profit and loss above 0.5
Only the 2013 double bubble and today have achieved this.
Data: (
@PermabullNino
)
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Bitcoin's Hash Rate is going absolutely bonkers.
Up 3X since $68K.
The level of investment is insane. Normally HR growth drops in bear markets, this the first time it's increased.
This is a step change in mining industrialization. Energy companies & governments are here.
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It's rare to see both Bitfinex and Deribit stacked this heavy bid side.
Last time, Bitcoin was $10K
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Bitcoin is trading at a -54% discount to its $43K Energy Value today.
This level of discount only happened on 2 other days in the last 7 years; the epic 12 March 2020 collapse (Bitcoin $4.8K) and on 7 February 2019 during the last cycle's bear market bottom (Bitcoin $3.3K).
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The former CEO of a $1.4 trillion financial company has flipped, and is now telling investors to buy
#Bitcoin
The dominoes are falling.
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#Bitcoin
has never touched energy value in a bull market in its 10 years of history, until yesterday.
We just had the ultimate buy.
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Bitcoin Bottom Signal Series.
A thread of on-chain signals which suggest the Bitcoin bottom is in, or very close. In my opinion, these are the most important on-chain metrics today. Based on Bitcoin's 13 year history, they are telling me this is an extraordinary opportunity.
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I am shocked at how robust the Bitcoin network is.
Bitcoin hash rate just hit April highs.
A year ago, 60% of the network was in China.
In May, the Bitcoin network had its legs and arms cut off.
They completely regrew in just 6 months.
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This will be the most brutal Bitcoin Halving in history.
Production cost is about to double to $14,000.
70% above the current price.
Last halving, price was just 10% below Production cost, and Price & HR collapsed -20%.
Without FOMO now, expect a big miner capitulation. 30%+
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That was the first $10,000 candle we've ever had, did you expect it to be down?
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History suggests the beginning of rate rise regimes actually result in stock market strength for 6 months.
10 of the 13 regimes (77%) since the 1950s had positive stock market returns over the first six months, averaging +5.1%.
We are approaching the start of a new regime now.
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In the short-term, Bitcoin is a slave to the S&P.
Extremes in Fear & Greed result in ultra-high correlation.
Today we are in Extreme Fear.
Good news is a number of metrics suggesting S&P is near bottom.
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The ETF news is massive, but no one is even talking about Bitcoin's BIGGEST Halving ever on 19 April 2024.
It's just 3 months away. It will be the first time that Bitcoin becomes harder than Gold. The best store of value.
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Bitcoin dominance is at lows near 44%.
This sidelined capital is like rocket fuel for when we start getting daily closes above $50K.
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You haven't experienced crypto until you have seen min 40% downdraw.
Bitcoin is now down 40%.
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Ethereum has entered the hard money game.
For the past 3 months, Ethereum's inflation rate has been lower than Bitcoin.
What a chart. Never thought I would see it.
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#Bitcoin
no longer cares about China.
Bitcoin is up +6% since China implemented a total ban just 7 days ago.
Let that sink in.
The inefficiency has been retraced, we now have a positive breakout on negative news.
It's a major sentiment shift. A turning point.
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Times the Grayscale Bitcoin Premium was under 5%:
- Oct 2015 ($300)
- Feb 2017 ($1100)
- Mar 2020 ($6000)
... and today 🔥
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Bitcoin Supply Delta looks very bullish.
The vast majority of similar readings to today were followed by large price appreciation.
The most similar reading to today, in terms of value, profile and price action, is the 2013 double bubble.
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Grayscale already owns 3% of all circulating Bitcoin.
Their holdings are growing around 10% a month.
At this rate they could hold 10% of ALL Bitcoin in 2021.
The centralization of Bitcoin has moved from exchanges to wall st. The difference is, this is a one-way model.
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Stocks, bonds and currencies hit new lows in September. Bitcoin didn't. That's massive relative strength. Not only is Bitcoin still trading at deep value, the macro situation is reinforcing the value prop of Bitcoin. The great fiat hedge.
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Last week the Fed abolished fractional reserve banking...
Now banks don't need to hold any cash that has been deposited and can lend at will.
We went from:
1861 - A gold standard
1971 - To currency backed by nothing
2020 - To no accountability
.. I am sure this will end well.
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80% of China's mining ban is already enforced.
Stage is set for fresh hash rate growth.
Further hash rate drops from China are no longer the risk factor to Bitcoin.
Now it's time to watch stocks.
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Bitcoin's production cost floor is rising, currently at $17K. At what other times did we see a similar rising cost basis?
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The most bullish chart in the world:
Inflation's topped.
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Simple facts:
- Bitcoin is at resistance
- Funding is 6-9X normal
- Memecoins are mooning
- ETF flows stagnating
These are not conditions historically conducive of a large rally continuing.
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The upcoming announcements are going to be incredible.
Institutions have been systematically extracting lots of $1B in Bitcoin over the last months.
5% of Bitcoin's exchange supply was taken off the market last week.
When will the institution responsible step up and make a statement? 👀
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There it is. Hash Ribbon miner capitulation confirmed. Triggered by the $10B FTX fraud and subsequent collapse, Bitcoin miners are now going bust and Hash Rate is trending down.
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#Bitcoin
price has never been this high with such bearish sentiment.
This is extremely bullish.
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Textbook institutional distribution and one of the most ridiculous and intense periods of daily FUD ever.
The market has been manipulated down to acquire your Bitcoin.
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If this
#Bitcoin
bull run is like 2017, we are about half-way.
Price action, HODL waves, DNVT, everything looks like June-August 2017.
The difference is we now have 20% monetary inflation, so I expect we are less than half-way, as this has a ratcheting factor.
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Bitcoin' Electrical Cost, the rock solid historical price floor for Bitcoin, is at $31.6K today.
It will double in 63 days.
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Possible bottom has been put in in supply delta.
From a supply side, suggests
#Bitcoin
is in a major accumulation zone.
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Hash Ribbon Buy
The Bitcoin Buy signal which occurs about once a year just fired.
Note: The halving is just 2 weeks away. Expect another signal within the next 3 months, like 2012 and 2016.
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Terra bought another $130M Bitcoin today.
This brings their total
#Bitcoin
reserve acquisitions in the last 6 days to $0.9B
Only $9.1B to go
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#Bitcoin
is proving itself as a safe haven in times of global uncertainty.
It has outperformed every other asset class by orders of magnitude since the Ukraine invasion.
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I think the much anticipated decoupling has finally begun.
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This
#Bitcoin
bottom is a bull-run gift.
The RSI diagonal buy has an incredible hit-rate.
Read more in Issue 7 of our Monthly Newsletter:
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This huge $2000 move in
#Bitcoin
is all the more sweet given it was done with Gold, not stocks.
In a tumultuous year, Bitcoin is proving itself a safe haven. Crushing all other asset classes and up over 50%.
You just have to be patient.
Just. Getting. Started.
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Another $1.5T stimulus is in the works.
MicroStrategy just bought $425M
#Bitcoin
.
Just wait until the big players like Apple start to realize how much of a risk their $100B cash balance sheet now is.
The flood gates are opening.
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5% of Bitcoin's exchange supply was taken off the market last week.
When will the institution responsible step up and make a statement? 👀
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Bitcoin had the biggest first day ETF launch by $billions even though Morgan Stanley, Vanguard, Citi, Merrill, Edward Jones and UBS did not allow clients to trade it.
Epic.
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Many people think they have missed this Bitcoin rally.
What they forget is that Bitcoin is still under 1% global adoption.
There are only 32 million wallets with Bitcoin, in a world of over 7.5B population.
2021 will be huge.
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The price target of the current Bitcoin wyckoff structure is literally off the chart. Mind numbingly high.
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My bear market dream is buying at the Bitcoin Electrical value price. So currently around $23K.
But during Bitcoin's life, we have never had a proper, lasting tradfi bear market.
The S&P is only down -18% (nothing) so far.
This changes everything...
1/n
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A Hash Ribbon buy signal is on the cards for next week
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Market makers are finally revising their Bitcoin price expectations up.
Yesterdays highest orderbook price was $60K.
Today it's $75K.
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If Bitcoin's post Halving returns are the same as 2020, we are looking at $280K Bitcoin next year.
You might reasonably argue this cycle's returns are less than 2020.
However, I believe the 2020 cycle performance was mediocre and an outlier.
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Every time the Bitcoin price has hit its Electrical cost in the past, it has been a generational investment opportunity. Without fail. This is by far my most trusted long-term Bitcoin metric because of this.
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10,000
#Bitcoin
just flowed out from Coinbase.
We are one step closer yet again.
The Bitcoin stairway to heaven is down.
Institutions buying every dip.
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Bitcoin's OGs are acquiring Bitcoin at the fastest pace in 8 years.
Bitcoin's ultra long-term holders (those that have held 5+ years) are accumulating exponentially in the last 6 months. These holders almost never sell.
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A
#Bitcoin
Hash Ribbon "buy" signal is 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 today.
If price closes this daily above ~9230, it will be confirmed.
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This is by far the most brutal Bitcoin miner capitulation since 2016 and possibly ever. Hash Ribbons capitulation has captured the lowest Bitcoin hash rate reading of 2022 as miners bankrupt and default under the great pressure of squeezed margins globally.
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