Ryan Selkis (d/acc) 🇺🇸
@twobitidiot
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founder & CEO @messaricrypto | long crypto, long America, short D.C.
D.C.
Joined November 2013
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Every. Single. Event. That I go to.
“Thank you for saying what I can’t.”
“We all owe you.”
“I wish more people would speak up.”
“Your tweets are my thoughts.”
“Crypto supersedes party affiliation.”
CoinDesk’s poll is revealed preference. It’s now safe to state the obvious.
🗳️ Hey, American crypto users: Who are you planning to vote for this November?
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In all seriousness, this is the very best timeline. A bad faith regulator who was forced by the courts to approve a product he hates, was exposed for mismanagement and incompetence in the most public way the day before he has to bend the knee anyway.
Career ender. Bye.
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I love crypto.
Imagine getting a real job after all that we’ve been through together.
Not happening. Moon or death.
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1/ HAPPY NEW YEAR
The Messari Theses for 2024 are now available for free.
Here's 105 thoughts for the new year. 👇
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CRYPTO THESES FOR 2024
For the fifth year in a row, I wrote Messari's annual report to celebrate crypto's survivors and builders.
Crypto remains inevitable.
Here's why:
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The risk of electing a Dem POTUS and Dem Senate cannot be overstated.
End of crypto in the U.S. until 2030 if things go the wrong way.
Stay vigilant.
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Three Paths Ahead:
+ Boden wins, U.S. crypto RIP
+ Trump wins, no / lukewarm crypto support, meh
+ Trump wins, crypto helps him win, U.S. crypto crushes
For people who are supposed to be good at game theory, y'all are really thick on this one.
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We beat him.
A thread 🧵
Some things to keep in mind if you're considering investing in crypto assets:
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Hmm.
@SenWarren
with respect, you told us you were building an army to destroy us and we’ve merely been defending ourselves, our teams, and our families from your defamatory attacks ever since.
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Every billionaire I know has asked me how to buy a dog with a hat today.
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Senator Warren found out we built a bigger and stronger army and she isn’t happy about it.
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I am bullish crypto’s Big Three about equally now.
BTC, ETH, SOL may dip in Q1, but much MUCH higher by end of 2024.
We’re going to win.
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SBF's parents were bundlers for Senator Warren's campaigns.
Warren coordinated with short sellers to assassinate banks that were friendly to crypto and sparked a mini crisis earlier this year.
She's trying to ban crypto in the U.S. and malign public servants that like us.
🥰
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Buy hardware wallets. Move onchain. And Hold.
Exit the system, and starve the beast.
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“It’s like Doge, but it has a hat.”
Me walking my neighbors and the friends of my children through the fundamentals that drive my very serious career.
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One lesson I learned in my trip down the DC rabbit hole is how many people work for Liz Warren: Sen Brown, Rep Waters, Pres Biden.
She herself - as a liberal from MA - is untouchable, which is why she trolls us.
Eyes on the ball: crush her friends.
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I am once again asking you to vote with your wallet and buy bitcoin this year, as it is the only check to the runaway growth and power of the security state.
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A lot of talk about Solana (justified) and Rollups (justified), but don’t sleep on AVAX in 2024.
Top performer this month, second best performer of 2023 out of the top ten assets, deeply enmeshed in the RWA space via Project Guardian.
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“I’ve held for years through multiple 70% drawdowns, but I’m going to “sell the news” on the Bitcoin ETF approval this week.”
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I’m a simple man.
I disrespect:
+ seed oils
+ endless wars
+ DC graft & surplus elites
I respect:
+ Satoshi
+ Vitalik
+ Toly & eat glass builders
Keep it simple, fam.
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No good deeds go unpunished.
Spend months on unpaid policy work and months on a free community research report (book), and now have two entire armies coming after me, Warren’s and Cardano’s.
😜😜😜
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ETH is straddled.
Ethereum was a transformative, world-changing innovation, but its token is not a good bargain relative to BTC and the field of L0/L1/L2 assets.
This and 104 other arguments in our annual report.
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PSA to Gary Gensler:
Bitcoin is the undisputed investment champion across every single time frame in its 15 year history.
Gary forgot to include this in his FUD thread below.
A thread 🧵
Some things to keep in mind if you're considering investing in crypto assets:
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#5
DePIN will explode in 2024.
Our full report lays out some of the most promising projects in greater detail.
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The Bitcoin ETF is a tsunami event.
Short term may be “sell the news” like a tide that recedes before a giant wall of water hits shore and engulfs everything.
Most mega bullish event in years, and people dunk on dips at their peril.
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The SEC is the Harvard of financial regulators.
A corrupted, declining institution that must be rebuilt by people who actually believe in its original mission vs far leftist bullshit.
Ah yes Kraken, Coinbase, Uniswap, and the Metamask wallet. The true villains of crypto.
Well done SEC.
Thank you for protecting us.
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Bitcoin added $500 billion in market cap in 2023, enough to buy JPMorgan.
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I spent ~3 hours with Vivek around Mainnet this fall.
+ The teammates that met him backstage (including some hesitant about my speaking invitation) were blown away by how approachable he was.
+ He killed it on stage and showed a nuanced understanding of not just crypto but the…
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Their benefactors defrauded us, then blew up our chances at common sense crypto laws.
They conspired to kill banks that were friendly to us and sparked runs that threatened our reserves.
They sued our leaders and defamed us in the press.
And we doubled. See you in 2024.
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Solana Apps + Phantom wallet are so fast and easy.
So are L2 Apps on Coinbase Wallet.
This cycle is going to be very different.
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GBTC NAV Gap closed.
Wall Street engaged.
We’re on to the final phase of the multi-decade war for decentralized finance.
Up next, inevitable dominance.
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What seem crazier to you?
BTC market cap at 3x ETH’s or ETH market cap at 6x SOL?
I know my answer.
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If you're curious as to whether Senator Warren should be taken seriously, the answer is (unfortunately) yes.
Not as a policy leader, but as an influencer on the executive branch.
I explain why, and also how to beat her in 2024.
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The thing people are missing about the Bitcoin ETF is that it's a "cross the rubicon" moment. Crypto will have a long-awaited wedge into mainstream global finance.
That won't "unhappen." Mass crypto adoption is inevitable with this step.
It's just a question of time horizon.
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Better Markets (which works for the banks, I guess?) desperately lobbing in letters to stop the bitcoin ETF.
Their (real) website testimonials:
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Can’t wait for Tues morning so I can buy some BTC at the open at these prices.
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Zooko pulled forward zk research by ten years by launching Zcash.
One of the highest ratios of value created vs. value extracted that I've seen in crypto.
Change my mind.
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Is the bottleneck to exchange listing the dog or the hat?
I think the hat might make it a security.
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I feel like we need to all collab on our “here’s why we might need to move our family out of the state / country soon” presentations for our spouses.
It would help to be consistent and get our story straight.
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It was the ones who were going to get fired anyway.
Nothing to celebrate as no one from the agency has resigned in protest. They’re all in on the action. It’s just a few that get caught that are afforded the luxury of “resigning” vs “getting fired for fraud.”
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Multiple SEC lawyers resign after a federal judge sanctioned the agency for false statements & abuse of power in a crypto case.
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Vivek is going to shock people on Monday.
Yes, I saw President Trump’s Truth Social post. It’s an unfortunate move by his campaign advisors, I don’t think friendly fire is helpful. Donald Trump was the greatest President of the 21st century, and I’m not going to criticize him in response to this late attack.
I’ve met…
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Your job right now should be to hold on for dear life to BTC for the next couple of months, then take some gains as MVRV crosses 2-3.
Set aside half for taxes and use the other half to play the hot ball of money game if you must.
But in Q1 a) HODL & b) create a strategy.
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Merry Christmas to all!
Root for every green candle, every new entrant, every airdrop, every IQ on the bell curve, and every team and community building for the future.
2024 is going to be a helluva ride, and Gary the Grinch can’t stop it.
🎅🎅🎅
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I can’t believe that’s the last time we’ll ever see soylana under $100. 🚀
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Anyway, see you tomorrow for the actual ETF approval.
Bitcoin is inevitable.
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$1 trillion by EOD for Bitcoin.
$2 trillion by EOD for crypto broadly.
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The longer crypto grows and thrives, the more single asset maximalism becomes a sign of mediocrity.
It’s one thing to have conviction in bets and focus on underserved markets. It’s another to go full maxi.
Never go full maxi.
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If Better Markets bottles their team’s tears, I’ll buy a case.
These are terrible people we are up against and it feels good to beat them.
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Having been on all sides of the information business ("journalist", analyst, news publisher, data vendor, etc.) over the past decade, I have a truth pill for you:
Narrative is 100x more important than truth.
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When it comes to crypto policy, my watch is ended.
2024 is about fast DeFi apps, DePIN, and AI.
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National Interest payments are going to grow $500 billion this year.
If they nationalize JPMorgan, it would cover *this year’s* *growth* in national interest payments.
I have bad news for you:
Balaji was right.
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If the bitcoin ETF is denied (which it won't be), it would be time for an organized financial protest: liquidate deposits from banks in favor of mass bitcoin buys.
i.e. Vote with your wallet.
(I don't think this is likely.)
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Never Nikki.
They’re saying the quiet part out loud.
Absolutely not. Vivek, 45, or RFK Jr.
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Bitcoin is now back to the most dominant asset of the past 15 years over every single conceivable time period.
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Dennis is one of the most important people in crypto policy, as he’s been doing critical blocking and tackling at the state level across the country.
It’s 50x as hard, but will be critical in defending crypto: if the Dems win DC in November, only the states can save us.
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Bitcoin is the Godzilla of Finance.
I still think people underappreciate its tailwinds heading into 2024.
This and much, much more in the Theses I wrote for your holiday enjoyment.
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Hal wouldn’t give a shit about the ETF.
Be like Hal today. Keep building.
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My understanding is that there has been basically no contact between team Nikki and the crypto industry.
If you want crypto policy outsourced to the Bank Policy Institute, then enjoy Nikki courting Dems on Wall Street, and crossover voters in Iowa and NH.
#NeverNikki
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One of the vets that
@SenWarren
called out as a mercenary traitor to his country offering to help the SEC and its Chair on improving the commission’s OpSec.
All you need to know about who the actual good guys are in this fight.
hey
@GaryGensler
and
@SECGov
, serious offer: as a crypto exchange we've had a lot of experience with security protocols around social media, and as a veteran and patriot I love to help my country. If you'd like any suggestions feel free to reach out.
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There’s a good chance GBTC doesn’t get uplisted in Jan because of the SEC’s cash creation standard, and Grayscale’s incentives to push for in-kind creations that delay approval (and thus their need to slash fees and offer redemptions).
Bookmark this tweet.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 SEC just met with ALL spot Bitcoin ETF issuers and told them to remove any reference to "in-kind" redemptions from their filings. "Cash creates" only.
It's a done deal. 🤝
Negotiating the finer details.
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Print this out, and read it daily.
A crypto ban + AI boom combination will be the end of freedom as we know it in the West.
AI is inevitable. Crypto is as well.
But if the latter is impeded for much longer, the results will be nightmarish.
As a VC whose job is to understand what’s coming in technology, I don’t believe anything is more important for my friends and family to understand than what I am about to say.
The hallmark of the first era of internet companies (2003-2023) was growth.
This era, it will be…
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If I were a gamer and just hit the lotto on something like WIF, I'd start a twitch / tiktok / vlog on crypto gaming, and simply play all of the crypto-native games this year all day every day.
Guaranteed superstar status. I'd consider staking a few gamers to do this in 2024.
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Kid: “Can we watch a Christmas movie?”
Me, after ~11 cocktails and IPAs: “Have you seen the one with John McClane?”
HO - HO - HO
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#7
Crypto's top 10 projects to watch:
1. USDT on Tron
2. Apps on Base
3. Celestia
4. Jupiter & Solana DeFi
5. Farcaster / Lens
6. GBTC
7. Lido & LSTs
8. CCIP vs. Pyth
9. Blur & Blast
10. Project Guardian
What are these? I guess you'll have to read the report.
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Wow
There is overwhelming evidence that Covid was a bioweapon that escaped from a lab in Wuhan, China. I detail the case in my new book, “The Wuhan Cover-Up.”
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Circle's IPO filing is confidential, but they're killing it.
2022: $800m Revs / $150m Profits
2023e: ~$1.5bn Revs / ~$300m Profits
Source from my fireside chat with Jeremy Allaire.
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Saying “Trump is better for crypto than Biden” is 2024’s “Cloth masks don’t work, actually.”
Everyone knows it’s true, it’s just that there’s only like seven people saying it for fear of The NY Times hit piece.
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Jamie Dimon meeting with the JPM crypto team after the successful ETF.
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Vivek has called out the playbook to a T. Never Nikki.
She’ll be a nightmare for crypto.
Some Iowa Democrats and independents are planning to crash the state's Republican caucuses Monday night and become "Republicans for a day" to vote for Nikki Haley — but mostly, against former President Trump.
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Crypto is inevitable.
It will either help revive the U.S. financial economy or destroy it.
All of my energy is in the former, as I love this country even if many of its leaders have lost the plot and undermine us at every opportunity.
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Must follow new org:
👇🏼
🚨 It's time to tell the truth about crypto.
We're launching a multi-million dollar national campaign to educate the public and policy makers about the power of blockchain and advocate for clear and sensible crypto policy.
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Always enjoy my chats with the Bankless guys.
For those that want a preview of ~10% of the Theses in an interview format, this is a good one to watch!
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One of the reasons I write this report is to sharpen my thinking and figure out where our team should invest resources in the new year.
I welcome debates and dunks!
Putting the report behind our Pro paywall:
a) rewards our loyal supporters with a holiday preview.
b) limits…
CRYPTO THESES FOR 2024
For the fifth year in a row, I wrote Messari's annual report to celebrate crypto's survivors and builders.
Crypto remains inevitable.
Here's why:
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#18
Solana was the industry's comeback player of the year, and it still has room to rally against ETH as the top integrated network.
If bitcoin is Godzilla, then Solana is Pacman, eating all of the killer crypto apps one pellet at a time.
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No such thing as a low energy, rich company either.
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Wallets are the most important and under-discussed area of innovation in crypto in 2024.
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What are the most underrated podcasts in crypto?
And what were your favorite *episodes* of the year?
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Regardless of what happens on Monday, I’m proud to have hosted an early event for
@VivekGRamaswamy
.
He’s going to surprise far to the upside in Iowa and be a political force for a long time. And he has been the hardest working and most authentic politician I’ve met.
When I first heard about
@VivekGRamaswamy
many months ago, I thought, "Ah, another one of those guys with a different profile than the typical politician. He'll get some attention, probably write a book, and then disappear."
But then, I stumbled upon his appearance on the Don…
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If an ETF were *not* approved next week - based on all signals from the SEC, I'd have to expect criminal investigations for market manipulation. Or are they exempt from that sort of thing?
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Getting VC inbounds from folks I haven't heard from since December 2021.
We're so f*cking back.
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#11
There's no future in the U.S. for crypto if Democrats hold both the Senate and White House.
We need to take out Sherrod Brown, Jon Tester, Katie Porter and a couple of other hostile Senate candidates, or you should move offshore of pick another industry.
Sorry:
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10/ That brings us to crypto, which gave birth to *triple entry accounting.*
For the first time in history, counterparties who do NOT trust each other, or who in fact may be adversaries, can trust each other's books via verifiable proofs.
The Chair of the SEC dismisses that?
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Bitcoin back to a $1 trillion network by end of January. You love to see it.
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Max pain trade that seems likely since most people think we’re going to have “sell the news” then “up only”:
+ BTC pops 50% in Q1, dominance spikes as traders take gains for taxes on the long tail of assets
+ BTFP drama leads to sharp March correction, which also hits crypto
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Happy 15th birthday Bitcoin.
And
Happy 6th birthday Messari.
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#14
You aren't bullish enough on the bitcoin ETF.
+ Wall Street is now into crypto.
+ They must all compete heavily with marketing dollars.
+ Gateway drug for ETH, and then everything else.
But it's a tsunami (earthquake, mini correction, then relentless wall of money).
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