Martin Enlund ⚡️🦆🚁
@enlundm
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Former Chief Strategist @ Nordea. Founder. Apophenia enthusiast. ου φροντι.
Mars
Joined December 2012
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Everybody thinks Swedish house prices are soaring.
And in nominal terms, they are!
However, if you divide them by the gold price or by money growth (M3), nothing has happened for more than a century (gold) or since 1960 (M3)... 🇸🇪🍌👑
Instead, maybe the $SEK is being devalued?
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On linguistic issues (and racism)
Elon Musk asserted earlier this year that the media is "racist against white people." This came after the creator of the Dilbert series Scott Adams was accused of "spewing racism," which resulted in his comic strip Dilbert being removed) from
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2016 (if Trump wins):
Justin Wolfers ("markets will crash")
Paul Krugman ("markets will never recover")
...
The problem does not lie with the experts.
It's that we have no experts.
#sensemaking
#f
örståelsekrisen
#brexit
I think that Chris Hayes vastly underestimates how tweets like this are exactly why Dem political professionals have a hard time ‘communicating’ with the proles … err, I mean ‘median voters’.
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US election: Gary Johnson voters apparently switching to Trump (in NH). Story supports one of
@ScottAdamsSays
' theses ("parking your vote")
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Sweden may b experiencing worst known governmental leak ever.
Worse natsec implications than Stig Bergling. PM yet to say smith
@20committee
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If you think Trump is a risk to the world because of all his "chaos," you have been brainwashed by professionals.
Chaos is an engineered attack against Trump by someone with training in persuasion. Similar to "dark" in 2016.
Chaos is chosen to scare older voters. It is a
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What has been the cause of inflation?
Let's listen in to what the experts have to say!
A thread. 🧵👇 (1/12)
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Fed's Neel Kashkari: "I get why China would be interested. Why would the american people be for that?"
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I have a feeling that 2022 will be tremendous as well.
👇🤗
***News***
I have decided to leave Nordea
2022 will be a tremendous year and I have some interesting news in the pipeline for the coming weeks.
This also means that I will start writing/tweeting about the markets again as of today!
Stay tuned!
Happy New Year everyone 🍾🍾
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🇺🇸🤔 Kommer du ihåg att:
- USA förbjöd sina medborgare att äga guld (1933)?
- USA devalverade dollarn med 58% på en dag? (1934)
- USA eliminerade silver från sina mynt? (1970)
- USA kopplade loss dollarns värde från guld? (1971)
- IMF-ekonomer skrev att en ”...skatt på sparande”
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🇺🇸🍌🕺Everybody thinks US house prices are soaring.
And in nominal terms, they are!
But, if you divide them by gold prices or by money growth, nothing has happened for more than a century (gold) or since 1967 (M3)...
Perhaps the $USD is being devalued?
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Vad är vetenskap egentligen? Att lyssna på akademiker och på andra experter, eller är det något helt annat?
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S&P500 2020 vs 2008
Assuming a Lehman-like event started in late February (equity market crash, followed by dollar scarcity...) then S&P500 is starting to look a tad lofty.
It ain't over till the fat lady sings! $spy
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You will have no freedom, and be happy
TL;DR: The payment system is becoming incompatible with basic freedoms and rights
Did you know that the Riksbank, the Swedish central bank, decided last year to burn 2.6 million kronor (Swedish currency) in cash that was found in a
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Är det så här det ska vara nu? En kund vill överföra sina pengar, som den har på kontot, till ett företag i utlandet.
Men banken kräver en förklaring på var pengarna kommer ifrån - trots att pengarna redan finns på kontot(!). Men också en förklaring på vad de ska användas till..
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😱South Korean exports: AAAAAAAAAAAAAH!
Worst data since 2009!
A negative read-through to world trade & MSCI world EPS
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Well, well, well.
If you believe liquidity is what's pushing equities higher, then recent dollar strength could be about to bring some vol... Mind the gap! $spy $usd
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Under Ingves lyckades
#Riksbanken
med att:
i) underminera kontanterna
ii) orsaka storslagen inflation
iii) iscensätta skenande bostadspriser
iv) skrämma bort utländska investerare
v) krascha den svenska kronan
Efter detta - varför ska någon lyssna på honom?
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Korean exports appears to have collapsed in January - bad news for global EPS growth! 🇨🇳🇰🇷🌍 $KRW
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🇸🇪Visste du att bensinpriset hade varit c:a 18kr/liter om inte för alla avgifter & skatter som tillkommit sedan 2014?
Det är nästan som att politiska beslut har betydelse.
Även svenska sådana.
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Kommer ni ihåg när staten eldade upp Gunnars 2,6 miljoner kronor?
Det gör jag. Medan Riksbanken eldade upp pensionärers och diverse dödsbos pengar, tvättade banker som Danske Bank & HSBC pengar som aldrig förr...
Varför är det så tyst om detta?
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Ooops. US housing & real estate data have never disappointed this much before... (on data since January 2000) $USD
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🇺🇸🤯US GDP growth vs FedEx: AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH!
-> $fdx
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Interesting paper on China's housing by Rogoff et al.
"PEAK CHINA HOUSING"
=>
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Are Swedish house prices rising, or is it just the $SEK falling?
- In nominal terms house prices are up 1300% since 1976
- In gold terms they are down 40%
#fridayimagoldbug
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🇺🇸🤯⁉️ The plot thickens...
Gauging from consumer confidence, the US recession likelihood is now highest since March 2020 (as the expectations component has weakened since March)
$usd $tlt $spy
#stagflation
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Video clips relating to CBDCs. 🧵
BIS' Agustín Carstens: with CBDCs "central banks will have absolute control".
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🇸🇪👑🚀 Ni kan säga vad ni vill om kung Carl XVI Gustaf.
Men när han hade hade den formella makten över landet utvecklades vår valuta oerhört bättre än den gjort sedan dess...
Dags att göra Sverige till en riktig monarki igen?
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🤓 Isn't it always fun to dig into CPI "inflation" details?
If the "middle-class" iPhone had tracked that of CPI telephones, it would have cost $200 instead of $1000!
Now go read
@donnelly_brent
's take on "hedonic adjustments"! (via
@epsilontheory
)
A Honda Accord cost $12,000 in 1990 and it costs $25,000 now.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics says new car prices are close to unchanged over the past 30 years.
ET contributor
@donnelly_brent
tries to wrap his brain around hedonic adjustments to CPI.
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🇯🇵👺🔥 AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!
Japan's machine tool orders dropped at its quickest pace in a decade in June. MSCI World EPS could be about to start shrinking! $SPY
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Globalism is the real pandemic
TL;DR: Contrary to their stated goals, centralized solutions and globalism are poised to increase disaster risk, undermine knowledge production, impede economic growth, and hinder scientific progress. They should also be rejected on ethical
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🔥🔥🔥What usually happens following an inversion of the yield curve?
The US 2/10 curve inverted for the first time in this cycle yesterday!
Based on past four inversions, $DXY may gain 3% over next 3 mths. S&P500 by 5% next 2 mths, and curve could keep flattening for 2 mths
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🇺🇸🔥 $USD cycles since 1973.
1970-: Up for 6.4y, down for 10.45y
1990-: Up for 6.8y, down for 9.4y
2010-: Up for 8.7y(?), down for ???y
=> If the dollar is peaking this year, it will be a big deal...
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🇩🇪 Germany's ZEW expectations fell of my chart.
Seriously. It FELL OFF! (weakest since 2011) $EUR
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🇺🇸FedEx vs world trade
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!
$fdx $usd
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🇺🇸🔥$USD: FedEx profit miss a bad omen for US and global growth. Are we all doomed? Why doesn't equities care?
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🇸🇪☕️🤔 Piggelin, som kostade 2,50 kr under mitten av 1980-talet men som nu kostar 10-12 kr, egentligen kostar den bara 4 kr. Kanske är det från glass vi numera får vårt dagliga mineralbehov?
En ny krönika om inflation och idoldyrkan i Affärsvärlden
=>
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I’ve been wondering what that special place in hell looks like, for those who promoted the single currency, without even a sketch of a plan how to carry it out safely.
I've been wondering what that special place in hell looks like, for those who promoted
#Brexit
, without even a sketch of a plan how to carry it out safely.
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Macro hedge funds finally all-in equities. Most long since July 2015. Back then, China-induced sell-off followed.
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🇪🇺 Is Euro-area following in the footsteps of Japan? If so, expect a brief policy mistake (hikes) in 2025, and ~0% rates until at least 2036... $EUR
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🇸🇪🍌👑 För ett år sedan spådde Riskbanken(sic!) att inflationen skulle vara 1,3% nu. Istället blev det 9,3%.
Hur det kan komma sig att våra planeringsbyråkrater har haft en sådan otur? & borde inte detta diskuteras mera?
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A regime shift is evident.
Recent stock crash has barely dented US 10y yields, due to Fed's (& others) hawkish shifts
#QuantitativeTightening
. Old pattern would have suggested 10y at ~2.2%...
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I remember when:
- PayPal choked off donations to WikiLeaks
- PayPal banned Jihad Watch
- PayPal banned domain name registrar Epik
- PayPal banned Freedom Phone
- PayPal banned an evolutionary biologist
- PayPal wanted to fine users $2500
Do you? $PYUSD
#freedomtotransact
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🇩🇪 😱AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!
German factory orders do what they do best. Drop!
-5.6% yoy vs -4.2% expected in July.
Ifo momentum suggests more weakness is on the cards
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En Bitcoin kostar idag .. 333 189 SEK.
Detta är hur mycket fattigare vi har blivit för att våra nötter till politiker inte knöt den svenska kronan till Bitcoin.
Vi hade dessutom en gång i tiden kunnat gå med i
#Bitcoin
för 3000 kr per Bitcoin.
Skandal.
En dansk krona kostar idag ... 1,57 SEK.
Detta är hur mycket fattigare vi har blivit för att våra nötter till politiker inte knöt den svenska kronan till euron.
Vi hade dessutom en gång i tiden kunnat gå med i euron för 8,80 kr per euro.
Skandal.
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Ooops!
US households are suddenly feeling financially worse off (vs a year ago), and things have been trending down since April.
High "inflation", costly housing, benefits ending, people about to get evicted all likely drivers...
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🇸🇪☕️🤔 Idag anordnar Riksbanken en jätteträff för många av världens främsta teflonprofeter (centralbanksbyråkrater) samlas för att dunka rygg.
Man har t.ex. strax lyckats med konststycket att tappa bort 25% av kronans värde bara på några år... (1/5)
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The S&P500 future is up 26.9% from its December lows.
Earnings forecasts are down by ~6%.
Who needs earnings when you've got
#greenshoots
? (&
#Fed
?) $SPY 😜💰🔥
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😎🤑🤯 Nordea View: High bull trap risk
Liquidity & macro outlooks have deteriorated further...
Read it here -> $SPY
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Monetary Policy
or
Monetary Poverty Policy?
New piece on supply, inflation & monetary policy. 👇
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🇨🇳📉🤔If everything is so great...
... then why is China's PMI so low?
Our narrative for the week ahead
=> $tlt $spy $dxy
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$EUR: 🇪🇺🇸🇪🌍 Swedish PMI details (orders vs inventories) suggest Euro-area PMI could drop to 45!
#doubleplusungood
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All a "conspiracy" is is two or more people doing something shady in secret. Happens constantly.
From
@enlundm
:
"labelling people as conspiracy theorists should in part be seen as a way to prevent the truth from emerging."
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🇺🇸🤓 The importance of the dollar for asset allocation
- At an age of 7 years, the upturn in the dollar has now lasted longer than the bull runs of the 80ies & 90ies
- If the $USD cycle turns, it will be a big deal for asset allocation
Read more ->
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More and more people are recognizing that US is outperforming the rest of the world. Usually bodes well for the $USD!
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Visste du att Piggelinpriset har mer än dubblerats de senaste 25 åren, men att glassar är lika billiga som de var 1990 enligt KPI?
Trots detta tycker jag gott att talman Andreas Norlén kan skippa bullfikat och köra på glasspåret i sommar!
FX weekly ->
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Well, well, well (redux).
The S&P500 index has now CAUGHT DOWN to global liquidity, though further USD strength might warrant more $SPY downside...
Well, well, well.
If you believe liquidity is what's pushing equities higher, then recent dollar strength could be about to bring some vol... Mind the gap! $spy $usd
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There are decades where nothing happens;
and there are weeks where decades happen.
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Are house prices going up, or is the Swedish krona being debased? 🤔
Swedish house prices have fallen since 1976(!), if measured in gold coins/bars (or if adjusted for money growth)
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It's just going to get weirder and weirder and weirder ...
and finally it's going to be so weird that people are going to have to talk about how weird it is.
- Terence McKenna (1998)
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QUICK!
Central banks better cut rates quickly, so that quarantined people can finance their 100% non-existent purchases of autos and capital goods at lower rates! That'll help.
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So, Let's All Keep Calm And Trust The Experts!
If you liked this thread, like, follow, & listen to our 🇸🇪 podcast Svart Ekonomi
#f
örståelsekrisen
#svartekonomi
#sensemaking
#dumbflation
#Bitcoin
(12/12)
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🇺🇸🥧📈 Nominal ISM manufacturing the highest since Sept-2004, another sign of a coming inflation surge... $USD
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🇸🇪🍌👑 Swedish retail sales at -7.7% yoy in October.
Worst number at least since 1992.
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Hannah Arendt, one of the greatest philosophers of the last 100 years ... who experienced nazism, said that:
"once something can’t be said, you’re already in a tyranny"
- Iain McGilchrist
#f
örståelsekrisen
#sensemaking
#chatcontrol
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KYC is the real terror
The erosion of our freedoms and rights is on the rise due to KYC and AML regulations. What is the origin of these rules and to what extent are they effective?
It has become increasingly evident that our financial system has started undermine our
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After yesterday's ISM services release, we can update the nominal ISM composite - it suggests an inflation surge to a whopping 3.5%(!).
=> It'll be harder and harder for Powell and his ilk to push back against the tapering narrative if/when this unfolds.
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Kommer ni ihåg när Riksbankschefen förra sommaren sade ”det borde räcka med att höja räntan till någonstans kring 2% ”för att få bukt med inflationen”?
Det gör jag.🇸🇪🍌👑
Nu är räntan dubbelt så hög än vad som nyss borde ha räckt.
#finanstwitter
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🇺🇸 What usually happens with equities during US profit recessions? (data since 1900...) $SPY
For more ->
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And if you think tighter financial conditions won't matter, here's ISM manufacturing vs the change in financial conditions.
Does the Fed really want to tighten further here & now? $USD
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This is sad. 😢
Macro hedge funds were /crazy short/ equities in September, but then went long /right ahead/ of the equity market crash. Now they appear short.
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🌎🔥$USD: Well, well, well.
Six months ago Fed officials & other economists said the flattening yield curve was wrong, that we had nothing to worry about, and the near-term forward spread was a much better indicator of recessions.
The near-term forward spread is now inverted.
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Denmark closing schools, keeping public employees at home for 2 wks. Likely the right thing to do. One earlier day of action can bring MASSIVE reductions in the
#covid19
case count.
Sweden a laggard, but stopping big public gatherings today.
Not sure what's happening in Norway..
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🇺🇸🔥 $USD. Will soft QE be announced already today?
Hearing chatter that
#Fed
might announce soft QE already today (100-125bn/year). At least that is how expectations are developing... Does seem too early given how NY Fed was caught completely off guard this week!
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How do these compare to Black Swans?
#2020
An incredibly rare black deer, also known as a melanistic or melanic deer, has been spotted in the forests of Poland. 🇵🇱
📽Jakub Wencek
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🇸🇪🍌👑 Are Swedish house prices rising or falling?
Since 1913, house prices in Stockholm (the capital) has risen by 13500% - when measured in Swedish kronor $SEK
If we measure by the price of gold, they are down by 32%(!)
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🤓🇺🇸 Why did the Fed just hike the IOER rate by 20bp instead of 25bp?
Wonkish, but I know you like it... $USD
#QuantitativeTightening
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Censorship lacks epistemic grounding
TL;DR: today's censorship enthusiasts can't know what's true or not when dealing with complex systems, which should make them more cautious before reaching for their black markers.
Earlier this summer, Slovakia's current president warned
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Idag publicerar Riksbanken en betalningsrapport. Det kommer därför pratas om pengar i maktens salar.
Kanske borde även vi som slavar på pyramiden diskutera detta?
Riksbanken kommer t.ex. ha tappat bort 25% av kronans värde bara på några år...
(1/7)
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If we're all doomed, why is "Dr Copper" telling you to buy cyclicals?
FX weekly: No doomsday (yet) ->
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🇸🇪🍌👑Fint på något vis.
- Järnvägsunderhåll för 350 miljoner läggs på is.
- Samtidigt som politikerna hetsar på för en snabbjärnväg.
- Nu sitter Riksbankens Ohlsson fast i Uppsala och måste senarelägga sitt tal (10:10) - för att tåget inte går.
*mys*
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🌊😱 Dollar liquidity is STILL set to become tighter in coming months
A friendly four-chart-reminder... $DXY $SPY
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Gold seems surprisingly resilient given what has been unfolding in fixed income. $xau
What's next?
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