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@0xDrizzy
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these violent delights have violent ends
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Every time your timeline is at odds with that feeling in the pit of your stomach, that feeling deep in your bones. Read this
🤝 it is literally over pack it up you had one last cycle to make it and you bought the etf listing at 49k you mongrel time to get job
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@icebergy_
Think of the geopolitical setup. IMO this is first time the world has seen PMF so blatantly for individuals. You are an ordinary individual and your currency is down 50% overnight? Oh and getting cut off from global financial system? Crypto is finally a way to protect yourself...
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@icebergy_
And at nation-state level too. West weaponizing USD? Crypto = rails to circumvent. If you asked me in Dec I would have thought we are going into full bear. Board has now changed. We may have just pulled forward global treasury reserve allocations by 5-10 years…
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@icebergy_
All it takes is one sovereign watching the global events unfolding and recognizing that maybe it actually does make sense to a % of treasury reserves allocated to a decentralized, trustless, permissionless "SOV". Oh- and it can actually be an investment if you're early enough...
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@icebergy_
If just one nation announces allocation in semi meaningful capacity within next few months - and sure, that's an "if", but I think that "if" is actually 100x+ more likely than it was even in Dec - then I think many other sovereign nations follow fast like a line of dominoes...
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@icebergy_
that's the bull case rn. sure, it may be turbulent over next few mo's since new money isn't in the system yet / old money hasn't realized narrative shift and is stuck on a crypto bear meme. But the moment that changes, I think we could see a massively violent breakout to upside
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Lots of confusion on the timeline. Prev cyclers view clips like below as top signals… where is the next dollar coming from? Barely broke ATH but retail already seems to be here in droves? Cognitive dissonance.
But indeed the memecoin supercycle just beginning
This cycle,
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A few extra points that I'd posit make Trump NFTs potentially the best vehicle to express this trade by Nov-24:
- they were literally issued by Trump, himself. No memecoin organization, no anon group... Donald Trump, himself
- mainstream bear case to date has been perpetual…
Mechanism Capital has accumulated its first new positions of 2024. These new positions center around Trump and include Trump related meme coins and NFTs. Prolific usage of Trump sticker packs to start immediately.
Basic Thesis
Meme coins are all about the attention economy and…
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@0xSisyphus
My guess is ~$200-$250B of late stage impairment... crude proxy using $ARKK as late stage index, but should get you in the right zip code. Now let's see how much of this actually gets marked down ;)
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@mewn21
The nation state bid has been pulled fwd by 5-10 yrs. That pool of capital eclipses the dwindling hot ball of money by an order of magnitude
@icebergy_
Think of the geopolitical setup. IMO this is first time the world has seen PMF so blatantly for individuals. You are an ordinary individual and your currency is down 50% overnight? Oh and getting cut off from global financial system? Crypto is finally a way to protect yourself...
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@LogicalBTC
$boden is a mockery of biden... the much larger TAM ($2B+ mkt cap oppty) is a supportive $biden token. a prediction-market-like, winning proxy to battle $trump
that's what mainstream retail will be bidding come fall. that's what cnn / fox news / cnbc will be covering.
both
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@Rewkang
@MustStopMurad
But odds of election are 50/50 rn and will increasingly skew Biden by Nov if economy continues improving. If Biden wins $BODEN will reach unfathomable levels. Study DOGE in weeks preceding Elon SNL. Craziest part of the move will happen into & during election night, if not after
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Same with $LDO... IMO real shot to break ATH near or after "merge". Lack of other compelling narratives + low liquidity + most importantly, despite retail bear mkt flight... legitimate exit liquidity for speculators (VC / liquid funds need to show LPs a few non-BTC/ETH plays)
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@Fiskantes
@0xHanamichi
@0xSisyphus
@mhdempsey
& for the record - I think the buys today will do quite well on a LT horizon. But I also doubt they'll be sold to a buyer focused on the cash flow profile
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@Fiskantes
@0xHanamichi
@0xSisyphus
@mhdempsey
Okay for example walk me through r/r of LDO or AAVE (choosing defi for val simplicity). What does reasonable FCF profile look like? What do you think is fair mult? Why is that a fair mult? Does calculus add up if this was illiquid position you could only sell in 5 years?
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@realbartleby1
@0xSisyphus
@Fiskantes
@mhdempsey
inst. bidders today will write "sophisticated" internal memos about LT winner-take-most outcomes achievable by [ ] token... but in their heart, they're trying to bottom tick (on annual lens) levered beta. Most natural buyer is VC dry power / inst. equivalent of hot ball of money
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@0xHamz
Only if there’s a robust enough macro setup to prevent the marginal seller (speculators) from dumping out of what was otherwise an asynchronous catalyst. Without risk-on in broader mkt post-merge, this pump will largely be empty calories (no net new external flows)
@0xWittgenstein
Determines current exposure levels. Need to know what exit liquidity environment looks like post-merge… PvP vs. PvE
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@Fiskantes
@0xHanamichi
@0xSisyphus
@mhdempsey
Those premiums are what drive "rational" asset pricing from perspective of an institutional bidder - not an expectation of future cash flow profiles capitalized at "reasonable" multiples (given risk in this asset class at large)
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@LogicalBTC
Do you think the new coinbase wallet obfuscates complexities of onchain access for retail? Seems so at first glance
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@Fiskantes
@0xHanamichi
@0xSisyphus
@mhdempsey
Last question to probe at fact that steady-state defi probably should be capitalized at much lower multiples than traditional equities. Incredibly fickle cash flow profiles, low barrier to entry / defensibility (open-source), multiple exogenous risks vs. equity counterparts...
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@0xSisyphus
@economist
So only point I’d make is I actually think there is a 0-1 difference for 99%+ of population if coinbase executes correctly. A basic MetaMask wallet is actually incredibly inaccesible UX for average retail consumer. OS to date = 600K total users. Coinbase = 60MM+ users… 6MM+ MTUs
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Same with $LDO... IMO real shot to break ATH near or after "merge". Lack of other compelling narratives + low liquidity + most importantly, despite retail bear mkt flight... legitimate exit liquidity for speculators (VC / liquid funds need to show LPs a few non-BTC/ETH plays)
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Twitter never discusses / tracks BNB & BSC eco because CT has very little overlap with the hot ball of money in the East. That game is conducted exclusively in Chinese via WeChat. Can't break into it's upper echelon without native connectivity
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@TaschaLabs
Because stablecoins are the only pocket of crypto market cap immune to value contraction. Reason it gains share in bear mkt (beyond risk off inflows) is because relative value of all else shrinks
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@QwQiao
It seems to me like the reason most people are making the play is as a means of temporary exposure given the current rotation into L2 (and lack thereof other investible projects). Hence, if some of the more "sound" end-state solutions launch tokens mid-this year...
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@0xSisyphus
I mean it's not sustainable. Already trending towards low / no fee. No one understands how to value this. That's opportunity. Analysts should use $COIN volume / MTU to back into implied PFOF from $HOOD equities biz. That's your margin of safety
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Back to the gravitational forces of tightening + increasing / sustaining rates
Fed needs to kill consumer before assets prices can live
Can’t kill the consumer before you kill asset prices
This is why $ETH will eventually dump post-merge... in absence of "fundamentals", liquidity is king. One point of divergence I'd offer to
@NorthRockLP
view is that good is bad for equities. HH B/S too strong... Q2 prints suggest long road ahead to fed's desired demand destruction
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SOL insiders were never disincentivized to call out any of this either. The Alt L1 playbook:
Fake devs --> fake projects --> fake users --> fake activity --> fake stats --> marketing --> real devs --> real projects --> you know the rest...
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@realbartleby1
@0xSisyphus
@Fiskantes
@mhdempsey
inst. bidders today will write "sophisticated" internal memos about LT winner-take-most outcomes achievable by [ ] token... but in their heart, they're trying to bottom tick (on annual lens) levered beta. Most natural buyer is VC dry power / inst. equivalent of hot ball of money
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@Fiskantes
@0xHanamichi
@0xSisyphus
@mhdempsey
I'm not suggesting you shouldn't buy this stuff if you're a crypto fund right now. Rather, I'm suggesting there is an implicit premium you pay for the option to sell it on a non-rationale pump in the interim. I.e., investing in LDO carries merge pump optionality...
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@MoonOverlord
BTC narrative has never been stronger. You’re thinking about the crypto-native pool of money. What’s happening right now is a lot bigger than that
@icebergy_
Think of the geopolitical setup. IMO this is first time the world has seen PMF so blatantly for individuals. You are an ordinary individual and your currency is down 50% overnight? Oh and getting cut off from global financial system? Crypto is finally a way to protect yourself...
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@0xSisyphus
@Pool2Paulie
@setanimals
@CaliPnL
there is a nuance here though... do you really think liquidity aggregation matters when 99%+ of the supply you've aggregated is absolute trash (and will be completely illiquid in the future given no demand)
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@matthuang
I haven't looked closely into the proposal details yet - will they allow unrealized tax-loss harvesting? ;) I suspect not, and in that case gov't incentives will heavily skew towards manufacturing market volatility...
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@Bitcoin_Sage
CBDCs will actually be the biggest catalyst for mainstream to understand the importance of a self-sovereign decentralized money
@matthuang
Rollout of CBDC will ironically be the mass onboarding catalyst for crypto. Not gaming, not defi, etc… the moment a centralized digital currency becomes the standard rail for mass money movement, the PMF for a decentralized alternative will be acutely felt at a GLOBAL level
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tempting to book profits but probs best to keep eating the dips here. there's a natural buyer upstream for a "blue chip" asset on it's way to reaching narrative nirvana
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@PermEquity
exactly. news is more bearish Elon <> crypto vs. crypto itself. $DOGE holds more Elon <> crypto surface area than $BTC by order of magnitude
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@DegenSpartan
it's programmed
Same with $LDO... IMO real shot to break ATH near or after "merge". Lack of other compelling narratives + low liquidity + most importantly, despite retail bear mkt flight... legitimate exit liquidity for speculators (VC / liquid funds need to show LPs a few non-BTC/ETH plays)
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@0xWittgenstein
Access to become employee != access to invest. Often the startups that end up driving outlier returns are also the ones inaccesible for an average tech worker’s investment
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@0xMagellan
@ABTestingAlpha
@knlae_
Every major financial market is inherently zero sum. Every single trade has an equal winner to loser. Crypto just intensifies the magnitude & concentration of wealth extraction given there aren’t pervasive valuation memes to bound upside or downside
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@LomahCrypto
Agreed. End of cycle = No net new inflow. No net new inflow means price movement is function of capital reallocation within existing pie…
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@JoinOnly1
@jvb_xyz
@chumbawamba22
@1000xPod
IMO - most compelling aspect of being on-chain is less about any of those factors and more about what’s possible from a GTM perspective:
$LIKE token at a “high valuation” unlocks ultra low cost of capital for creator acquisition (minimum guarantees / bonuses) —> creators
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This is why $ETH will eventually dump post-merge... in absence of "fundamentals", liquidity is king. One point of divergence I'd offer to
@NorthRockLP
view is that good is bad for equities. HH B/S too strong... Q2 prints suggest long road ahead to fed's desired demand destruction
The issue for crypto is that it is trying to follow equities, but the reason equities are rallying is actually bad for crypto. Crypto is far more sensitive to monetary policy than company earnings. For equities good news is good news. For crypto bad news is good news.
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Study the globality, anon
هل تُصدّق؟!
صاحب هذا الحساب
@LarpVonTrier
تمكّن من تحويل 350$ إلى أكثر من 8 مليون دولار خلال بضعة أيام من خلال شراء عملة ميم تُدعى $Keycat ! 😮😳
القيمة السوقية للعملة عند شراءها كانت تساوي 2200$ فقط!
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@0xWittgenstein
this is why investor letters that deep-dive into positions are counterintuitively value destructive for LPs. marries a manager to a position and hampers adaptivity to thesis-invalidating data points that can emerge. self-inflicted erosion of behavioral edge
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watch for this "narrative" near peak
@Data_Always
@Unchained_pod
@ryanberckmans
Right, but then Lido will effectively be a governance layer for Ethereum & the small number of people who control LDO will control ETH. As I said in the show, this becomes a tragedy of the commons problem because no one will want to give up the benefit of staking with Lido
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@Evan_ss6
@trading_vapor
@RemindMe_OfThis
The time frame you’ve chosen for the reminder says everything
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@neon___glow
@Mysten_Labs
Would you not raise at $2B if you were one of the founders? Valuation tells you everything you need to know about intentions once liquid. What does kissed’em bags rhyme with 😘? Aptos just the v2
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@Galois_Capital
@NorthRockLP
Selling pump optionality for an incremental ~2% into catalyst with such strong narrative potential has typically been EV- throughout the history of crypto
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Lots of confusion on the timeline. Prev cyclers view clips like below as top signals… where is the next dollar coming from? Barely broke ATH but retail already seems to be here in droves? Cognitive dissonance.
But indeed the memecoin supercycle just beginning
This cycle,
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VR hardware cycle will bring about a world where decentralized blockchain applications - NFTs / DeFi / etc. - will have meaningful “real-world” utility. Until then, majority of crypto is solutions looking for problems
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@PermEquity
@DataCommandant
If value accrual rights for gov tokens are approved by regulators tomorrow, there will be a violent bid for cash flowing protocols that trade at such cheap levels. At that point, applying traditional P/E mental model based on earnings & growth of EPS makes sense because...
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@DegenSpartan
…but both will look equally shit on USD denom chart to any non crypto-native eye
BTC “most valuable” may remain hard meme to kill for much longer than most anticipate
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@Pool2Paulie
@0xSisyphus
That would assume no digital SOV, which is largest TAM by order of magnitude (and arguably a requisite for “decentralized” apps to overtake *today’s* SOV caps in the future)
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@0xHamz
@TaschaLabs
Crypto-native fund flows. Fwiw idt you hold ETH after "merge rally" absent net new crypto inflows... but there's a world where consolidation into blue-chip buoys majors and buys time into a better chart. With that said, gun to head I choose BTC over ETH post-merge
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@santiagoroel
what happens when equity research desks start pumping out valuation work / price targets / models on defi protocols… 👀
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probably a few quick drawdowns on the way up tho... the big 50-80c was inst. accumulation (won't sell). ~80c+ when speculators came in... will be natural sell pressure coming up for many @ 2-3x paper gains in a few days...
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VR hardware cycle will bring about a world where decentralized blockchain applications - NFTs / DeFi / etc. - will have meaningful “real-world” utility. Until then, majority of crypto is solutions looking for problems
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@DegenSpartan
On what horizon?
2 - Agree... imo LDOETH could easily 0.0024+ by the time we're in peak staked supply control narrative
1 - Marginal seller in $ETH MVRV > marginal seller in $BTC MVRV... with no net new catalyst, feels like BTCETH outperforms in mid-term
Where’s the next buyer?
$ETH looks pretty high off those bear cycle lows thanks to merge pump frontrunners vs. $BTC (mkt beta)
What do front runners do when there’s no front left to run?
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looping back to
@DegenSpartan
comment, all temporary. post final breakout (near ATH+), dump / grind down next several mo's. but at least your favorite liquid fund will have a "sophisticated" new position to talk about in their quarterly investor letter
@Fiskantes
@0xHanamichi
@0xSisyphus
@mhdempsey
Okay for example walk me through r/r of LDO or AAVE (choosing defi for val simplicity). What does reasonable FCF profile look like? What do you think is fair mult? Why is that a fair mult? Does calculus add up if this was illiquid position you could only sell in 5 years?
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When ppl say there’s no terminal value in alt volumes, they misunderstand the product. Alts compete for share vs. casinos, sports gambling, lottery, etc… increasingly, given return convexity + online virality + 24/7 accessibility, alts are actually a more compelling form factor
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@fintechjunkie
Under-appreciated in context of ecosystem talent retention. Web2 early employees had to build product with terminal value to IPO / get meaningful liquidity. Half-baked Series B stage projects good enough to extract wealth in web3. “The best devs are unhirable”… already too rich
Not should they be with the current incentive structures… you can exit well before you’ve built long-term value
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@c0mputerbrain
@wenwencoin
@bonk_inu
@boden4pres
@dogwifcoin
@Moutai_Sol
@costcodogsol
@chonkycom
@MewsWorld
@Slerfsol
@mumu_bull
Phenomenal analysis. How are you pulling these data points? Manual entry or is there a plugin/ API? Thanks!
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@DegenSpartan
May actually be giving general public too much credit: “yield,” “deflationary,” “productive asset,” etc…
Not sure how much any of this *actually* resonates with retail
BTCETH may underperform thru rest of bear (post merge dump)…
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Are you seeing it yet?
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@icebergy_
Think of the geopolitical setup. IMO this is first time the world has seen PMF so blatantly for individuals. You are an ordinary individual and your currency is down 50% overnight? Oh and getting cut off from global financial system? Crypto is finally a way to protect yourself...
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@Bitcoin_Sage
I don't think it will be interoperable. Ppl will rotate a portion of their CBDC into crypto via a centralized exchange on-ramp. Then ppl will move those crypto assets into self-custody. The two will exist side-by-side. Kind of like cash under the mattress
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@PermEquity
@DataCommandant
Agree in short-term. Right now there simply isn't institutional bid for cheap "P/E" gov tokens - even with promise of eventual fee switch. Price movements = supply & demand. Bearish formula for any cryptoassets outside of hot narrative window with upcoming unlocks
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Lots of confusion on the timeline. Prev cyclers view clips like below as top signals… where is the next dollar coming from? Barely broke ATH but retail already seems to be here in droves? Cognitive dissonance.
But indeed the memecoin supercycle just beginning
This cycle,
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@CoastalDegen
Now you can roughly break out $COIN retail vs. inst. volumes for Q2. (Overall vol publically avail & $SQ reports on 4th for additional data point to triangulate retail). Next extrapolate GM% from each rev stream. Use street opex. If est. material miss, scoop short-expiry puts…
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@cobie
@namcios
@gckaloudis
@coryklippsten
@Stacks
given you acknowledge maybe 20 coins exist that aren't scams (& retail often only corralled by insiders / influencers in time for exit liquidity), do you in your heart believe it's a *net* benefit to society to allow retail to invest in alts broadly?
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these violent delights have violent ends
i have come to the conclusion that it is almost impossible to sell anywhere near the bull market top
there are a few psychological tricks that the bull market uses in order to keep you poor
only a very small % of people will manage to sell the top (me included)
once you…
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@cobie
@namcios
@gckaloudis
@coryklippsten
@Stacks
is the government's job not to serve in the best interest in the population at large vs. outliers like yourself? it's a philosophical question I guess. in alts, for every 1 retail with a 100x outcome, there are 100 retail investors with 0x outcomes
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@DegenSpartan
“enough people + money need to be using this alternative system to give it authenticity so that it cant be shut down by any govt” is this why in LT you pick ETH over BTC?
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@0xSisyphus
@0xRacerAlt
My music ages like fine wine. You might not be ready for it today… but one day you will be. Every album. Every time. Tried and true.
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@CoastalDegen
The play here is getting paid to buy vol. Buy Monday AM / hold for potential pump over next two weeks given merge rally / equities relief. Hopefully sell with gains by Aug-03 $HOOD earnings. Use $HOOD crypto Q/Q volume contraction to extrapolate $COIN retail vol decline…
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@PermEquity
my view is not that crypto will be up by jan 24. my view is:
1) by jan 24, we will see bouts of severe upwards volatility (bear market rallies, idiosyncratic catalysts e.g., merge, etc.)...
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@Bitcoin_Sage
Not your keys, not your cheese. Confident the world will wake up to this reality the second one large government oversteps their CBDC bounds of control. Agree with you directionally... it will be harder - but never impossible. It's the very essence of this industry
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@0xWittgenstein
In the interim, it is purely "risk" which ultimately only trades with liquidity. SOV being the anchor meme providing a *tangible* price target for tradfi pools of capital to justify allocation
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Equity is cheaper cost of capital than cash when market will trade equity at arbitrarily high valuations with no tether to fundamentals
Web3 yield farming is basically Silicon-Valley/Uber/Moviepass style highly-subsidized-usage growth hacking, except it subsidizes users through newly issued equity instead of discounts paid out of VC's pockets
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@mewn21
Issue in trying is that it’ll rotate more retail dollars into hands of insiders / VCs who can’t handle the fact that they’ve lost money. They deserved to lose that money. The only thing propping up this burning house will do is amplify the wealth extraction from retail
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