Santiago R Santos | #9159
@santiagoroel
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I like crypto & Harry Potter⚡️ | Sometimes write | Tweets not investment advice
Hogwarts
Joined August 2012
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Here’s a glimpse into my 🧠 and why I’ve decided to dedicate my career to crypto 👇
Full podcast with the legend
@Shaughnessy119
:
‼️
"...and when you understand that certain things will fall outside of your control, then you focus on the things that you can control, and really, really drive those."
–
@santiagoroel
@paraficapital
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You can spot a self-made person a mile away. There is a persistent hunger and drive that rarely goes away because they know how hard it can be, and are humbly wondering how much of their success has been luck or skill. And they have a soft spot for giving back and helping others
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The total market cap of DeFi is still less than Gamestop $GME.
One is a struggling Dallas-based video game retailer, the other is core infrastructure of a new global, decentralized financial system.
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Don’t have strong opinions on things you don’t understand.
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Elon is shilling Dogecoin. That tells you everything about his character. I don’t care how wealthy or successful you are, this is not how you use your influence.
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A lot of people categorically call Web3 (NFTs, tokens etc) a scam. The real scam is all the Web2 companies that profit off of user-generated content without sharing that with creators.
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Hear me out. Why would you spend $1k to get started on a Web3 game when you can buy a PS5 for less and play great games?
Owning digital property in games is a powerful primitive but thinking users will just come to earn is not enough or sustainable if the game is not fun to play
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“Ether beats bitcoin as a store of value. The Ethereum ecosystem...provides developers a way to create new apps. Most of DeFi apps are being built on Ethereum. The greater number of transactions in ether vs bitcoin reflects this dominance” - Goldman Sachs Global Macro Research
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You never truly understand crypto until you use it. Until you use ETH to pay for gas, stake and earn. Use ETH for DeFi protocols. Use crypto. Then talk.
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If you hold USDC do you:
A) Swap to USD & withdraw to bank (are they solvent next week?)
B) Swap to major (ETH/BTC) & take market risk
C) Hold USDC
Everyone in crypto is doing this calculation rn
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Ethereum has already flipped Bitcoin, you just don’t know about it yet.
Look at number of users, developers, use cases, transactions, and applications built on top 😉
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Don’t ask people what they think, watch what they do.
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Web2: create log in & password for each site
Web3: create 1 wallet for any site. Also 1 click checkout :)
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NFTs = Identity 2.0
Can’t remember the last time I used my pic on the left 🤖
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You'll learn (and earn) more being 6 months in crypto than in 4 years of university. You'll also likely make better friends along the way. Most stop learning once they graduate, but in crypto the learning curve never stops across disciplines.
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Most don’t understand crypto let alone DeFi. Likely never will. But many will start using crypto without even noticing it in the next ~5 years. That’s the beauty of transformational tech. You use it without even caring or noticing how it works. Just like the Internet.
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“DeFi Beyond The Hype. The emerging world of decentralized finance” report by Wharton & World Economic Forum 👇
Full report:
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Crypto offers a crash course in finance, economics, psychology, game theory, political science and a few other disciplines in a few weeks 🤓
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If you’re reasonably young and not taking asymmetric career risks then wtf are you doing. Lever up on your career. This is the time to venture out and reinvent yourself. There is limited downside, infinite upside. LFG 🚀
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The future:
1. Subscription-based NFTs will revolutionize software as a service
2. Stablecoin payments will eat e-commerce
3. DeFi will become the operating standard of finance
4. NFTs will become the best growth marketing hack and redefine customer relationship management
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1/ Web3 games will dominate. Here's some data. Of note:
@AxieInfinity
is on pace to generate ~$1.4B in 2021 revenue, up from ~$80M in 2020.
@SkyMavisHQ
, studio behind Axie, is 3 years old w/ 61 employees making it arguably the fastest growing & most capital efficient game studio
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It took Coinbase ~8 years and 1,250 employees to get to $1B in revenue. Uniswap is only 2.5 years old, has less than 50 employees (38 is my best guess), and is on pace to do over $1B in revenue this year 🦄
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"BTC is more of a crypto commodity than currency & competes with gold as a store of value, whereas ETH is the backbone of the crypto-native economy. To the extent owning a share of this potential activity is more valuable...ETH should outperform BTC over the long run" - JP Morgan
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Somehow money has become the primary metric of success and it pisses me the F off. It’s underwhelming and we can do better. Stop glorifying money and let’s celebrate smart, genuine people trying to make a real impact not just hoard money and flex. gn ❤️
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Some predictions for 2H 22:
- Coinbase acquired by large tradFi
- Crypto dips <$1T ($750/800 bottom) / $20k BTC / $1k ETH
- Immersive game onboards +10M DAUs (
@Stepnofficial
@illuviumio
👀 )
- Few crypto funds close shop (blow up or deeply underwater)
- Merge happens by October
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I think we'll look back at this time of crypto as one where some lost the plot and those that prioritized delivering the best product & user experience came out ahead because demand drives everything, including attracting validators to bootstrap network security and creating
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Dogecoin trading at 2x the valuation of Deutsche Bank 🐶
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Only 1% of Ethereum addresses have used DeFi. Whenever I think DeFi has grown a lot, I look at this to remind myself that Ethereum is still young and DeFi is a baby 👶
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Every interview they ask why crypto is reaching ATHs.
Underwhelming. Instead of price talk, let’s discuss how
#Ethereum
, a 6 year old network, has grown into the largest open-source developer community. ATH human capital
~2,325 active devs - a figure which has grown +215% in 3y
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Satoshi & Musk are both great innovators. While Satoshi didn’t draw attention to himself & put the interests of the network first, Musk appears obsessed with power & attention.
In crypto, you learn that true power comes from decentralization. That must be hard for Musk to accept
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> investor takes all the risk
> govt takes 50-80% of profits
Modern capitalism disguised as serfdom
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Congratulations to the class of 2020-2023. Now you’ll be able to tell the class of 2024-2027 that you managed to survive the collapse of a major exchange, multiple lending desks and hedge funds, major “stablecoin” protocol, countless apps and lived to see another day. Forged in…
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Long term investor but checks CoinGecko every 5 mins 🫡
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I can't think of a single fintech startup that has reached the scale of DeFi protocols in the same time & capital raised
Many DeFi protocols are <5 years old, generating at least $100M in revenue, profitable, w/ small teams & global expanding communities
* Note: just a sample👇
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I’m not sure folks realize that DeFi could be much much larger than digital gold.
Financial services > gold
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Most people don’t appreciate how valuable the underlying metadata of NFTs is. Imagine being able to see how the Mona Lisa traded hands over centuries. It adds a whole new dimension of value to digital art that is hard to find in antiques. Quite excited to see punks in 50 years
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We need less shilling, more education. Less maximalism, more collaboration. Less defensiveness, more objectiveness. Crypto is among the most important technological breakthroughs of our time. Most people eventually come to realize this. Some just take a bit more time than others.
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"Bitcoin is on the verge of getting broad acceptance among finance people"
@elonmusk
on CH
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Most failed to predict Luna, Celsius, 3AC, FTX etc and now they're all sure they know what's coming next...
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The smartest investors I know believe it's still incredibly early in crypto. Fwiw, I felt I missed the boat when I first discovered crypto. Bitcoin had almost 10x in a year and was at $150 and Ethereum didn't exist. After all these years, I feel more than ever we're still early.
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Warren Buffett calling crypto “rat poison” makes me incredibly bullish. He missed the Internet big time and is missing crypto. I appreciate investing in things you understand but dismissing a new field without learning about it betrays the
#1
rule in investing: always be learning
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Let’s get a few things straight:
> there’s room for “Ethereum killers” like Solana & Terra to succeed without minimizing Ethereum’s success
> VCs are not worthless
> Maximalism is counter to crypto culture
With that out of the way, let’s build. Lot’s of opportunities. Win-win
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You really think we’re going to stop with a Bitcoin ETF? Lol. You must not understand how the Wall St machine works. There will be ETFs of the top 10-20 crypto assets in the next 3 years. The floodgates have been opened.
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Takes less time for me to take out a loan on
@AaveAave
than for me to write out his tweet. Can't say the same for my local bank
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Crypto is still not obvious to most. Neither was the Internet as late as 2001. Yet here we are - where most can’t live without the Internet. Make no mistake, crypto will be as transformational. We’re headed to a world where you’re in control of your capital, data & digital assets
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Most of us in crypto live in the future with a growing impatience to get everyone else to see what we see.
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Friendly reminder 1559 is an ETH upgrade not a price target 🐸
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You may not like Facebook but they have been early movers into mega trends acquiring Instagram, WhatsApp & Oculus. Now they are going all in on the metaverse as META. They can’t acquire Web3 but tells you everything you need to know about where Web3/crypto/NFTs space is headed 🚀
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Get paid to think, not to do work. This will become more important in an AI world 🤖 💡
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Books I keep coming back to understand how crypto is unfolding and where we may go:
The Sovereign Individual
1984
The Giver
Brave New World
Power vs. Force
How the Internet Happened
Ready Player One
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Anyone that has used stablecoins knows we’re not going back to wire transfers.
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1/ Crypto teaches your lessons quickly. I've you've been around for a few years, you've seen compressed - but no less severe - market cycles in a span of months/years that most traditional investors only see once or twice in their careers. A 🧵on some of my crypto lessons 👇
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ETH flipping BTC increasingly possible when you consider:
1. ETH powers DeFi & digital metaverse
2. ETH issuance slows down/negative w/ EIP-1559
3. Staked ETH generates cash flow
4. Demand for ETH increases due to drivers
#1
-3 and becomes reflexive
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You simply need to understand that many more users will bridge and enter the Solana ecosystem to use protocols given the recent airdrop bonanza. This frenzy is not dissimilar from DeFi summer but one key distinction: way more user friendly and things to do (NFTs + DeFi perps,…
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I’ve gotten multiple messages from Ethereum-based teams today positively surprised by the caliber of the Solana Breakpoint conference. Events like these are important to bring together the community and show what is possible across protocols in Web3.
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Depositing $ into a smart contract is hardly “handing your money to a stranger” as the code that defines what the contract can do can be inspected & monitored by anyone 24/7/365. Handing your money to a bank is. While regulated, there is no transparency into what they do with it.
Yield farmers chase double-digit interest rates on crypto holdings, but it’s risky: “It’s the virtual equivalent of handing your money to a stranger.”
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I don’t think the world has realized the amount of human capital energy that is behind crypto. It’s like a freight train that is steamrolling through old and inefficient hierarchies and systems.
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A user anywhere in the world downloads a game, plays, earns, collects & uses tokens/items. Meanwhile in the background, they build up a savings account that automatically optimizes yield & asset utilization, wraps funds w/ insurance contract. Welcome to the future of finance 👾
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NFTs are the Trojan horse of crypto. Once you own an NFT it opens your imagination to explore a new world of possibilities. You appreciate what true ownership is (and lack thereof in Web2). I haven’t met a single person that just buys one NFT and stops there…🕳🐇
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Send a stablecoin transfer and then tell me if you’re going back to bank wire transfers.
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Define a century in one word:
15: printing press 📚
16: microscope 🔬
17: steam engine 🚂
18: penicillin 🦠
19: electricity 💡
20: Internet 🌐
21: crypto ✨
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Will be hard to outperform a portfolio of long ETH + stables earning nice yield to buy dips while world figures out inflation and other geopolitical risks. Sometimes simple strategies are the best 🤷♂️
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The concept that has strengthened my conviction in Solana the most is that the team has approached building Solana to solve latency in information propagation. You’ll hear Anatoly talk about his experience trading and how that inspired his desire to solve latency issues.…
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Ethereum: $480 billion
Microsoft: $1.87 trillion
Google: $1.55 trillion
Facebook: $867 billion
Only one is creating the value layer of the Internet.
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Ethereum has created the most amount of wealth among a distributed & diverse group - far beyond any other startup. This ecosystem is great because the community constantly reinvests in new research & projects. The rate of reinvestment is perhaps greater than Silicon Valley
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Solana is having its ICO moment as Ethereum did in 2017 with meaningful airdrops to the community (BONK, PYTH, and soon JUP among others). That new wealth has a reflexive impact on the Solana ecosystem.
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If your eyes don’t lit up when you talk about crypto then gtfo
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Panic sells
Exits all markets
Goes to cash
Then wonders: how will I beat inflation?
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When the dust settles a bit, Ethereum will emerge as the market leader. Crypto moves away from "sound money" narrative and toward a pure tech investment.
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Every Web2 company is now making a “big” push into the metaverse.
Folks, why don’t you start by enabling login with Ethereum ;)
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Say what you want about crypto but the fact that today almost anyone in the world can easily and cheaply exchange their local currency shitcoin for a USD denominated stablecoin like USDC which is fully collateralized 1:1 with bank deposits is a killer use case.
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Solana has proven time and time again to perform under pressure.
My prediction is that the devs figure out this spam issue and end up rolling out a novel solution that optimizes fee markets faster and better than most seem to think.
This was bound to happen at some point and…
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Yeah you’re right, I was just lucky to be early in crypto. Don’t mind the market cycles, +90% drawdowns, endless walls of stigma/worry to climb & grind to build conviction and leave a comfy job. Yeah, just pure luck I guess but you heard it but never decided to capitalize on luck
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It’s clear we’re going to decentralize:
SoV:
#Bitcoin
Internet:
#Ethereum
Banks:
@AaveAave
@compoundfinance
Investing:
@synthetix_io
@iearnfinance
Exchanges:
@Uniswap
@CurveFinance
@SushiSwap
Search/APIs:
@chainlink
@graphprotocol
News:
@PolymarketHQ
Storage:
@Filecoin
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If you’re here today in crypto, you’re an early adopter. Embrace it. Enjoy it. Gn frens, wagmi 🐸
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I consider myself the luckiest person out there because my parents have given me unconditional love and inspired in me the confidence to take wild risks knowing that, if I failed, I could always come back home to a safe spot. Best feeling in the world 🥲❤️
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Ethereum: the most important Internet network. Owned by everyone, controlled by no one. Attracting the smartest minds building the next wave of protocols and applications putting users and community first.
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I’ll be here at $4k, 1k, 500, 50…any price of ETH. At times, I’ve though about leaving crypto but I stay because best people are here trying to solve hard problems that can radically improve the human condition. This is the most important, assymetric movement for our generation.
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I’m increasingly of the mind that Ethereum & DeFi will be larger - much larger - than Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is a SoV substitute (i.e. gold). Ethereum is also a SoV substitute, and DeFi unlocks entirely new economies & use cases.
Case in point: Bitcoin in Ethereum/DeFi
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Bonsai are cool NFTs but it would be nice to have the ability to tend to the tree based on on-chain activity. What if you could seed a bonsai, water it, and watch it grow based on specific quests.
Make static NFTs dynamic to drive user engagement & retention. Anyone doing this?
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Most of the criticisms I've seen center on the idea that Solana has lower fees and therefore will not flip Ethereum which is securing more value and has higher fee extraction. Higher fees = higher net present value of network...where is the fault in that logic? Utility, not
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19th century marked the separation of church and state.
The 21st century will be defined by the separation of money and state. It may be a rocky transition but ultimately states will become corporations competing for talent. Security will be privatized and DAOs will thrive.
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I've yet to meet someone that discovers DeFi and goes back to tradFi
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It’s hard to be bearish on Ethereum when you see the growing developer community, applications being built (DeFi/NFTs/DAOs), & migration from PoW to PoS. In 3, 5 & 10 years from now those here today will be the early adopters who bought a piece of the value layer of the Internet.
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For a while I ask a simple question to teams:
What do you get building on Ethereum that you can’t in Solana?
The most common response is “that’s where the users and liquidity are”
I end up passing on most of these teams. Not because I don’t think they can be successful…
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The metaverse will be crazier than most think. It’s creating new economies & jobs. IRL & digital worlds will blur as we oscillate between the 2 worlds:
> gaming
> real estate - land purchases, leasing & construction
> commerce - in-game & digital versions of IRL items
> DeFi
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Was just on the phone with one of largest global hedge funds. They’ve been interested in crypto for years but haven’t allocated
Their biggest surprise was hearing about DeFi protocols cranking out cash flow. With record low rates, DeFi productive assets become too hard to ignore
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Euphoria when other bags pump but not yours
Fundamentals when your bags pump
Hey guys there’s a lot of euphoria and froth rn
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Gamblers get liquidated
Speculators capitulate
Builders build
Users stick around
Best investors in crypto are builders and users.
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The surest path to misery is comparing yourself to others. The real competition is within
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DeFi is becoming a cash flow machine. These protocols are generating annualized earnings (est.):
Uniswap = $140M (swaps)
Aave = $100M (interest & flash loans)
Sushi = $90M (swaps)
Maker = $45M (seniorage-based credit swap lines)
Most protocols are <2 years old
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Crypto changed my life. It feels good being part of a community that is this welcoming, intellectually curious, and forward thinking. Open source is the most competitive but that pushes us forward and drives progress.
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At some point, you learn to stop listening to figure heads, “experts,” and even your parents and instead develop views of your own informed by research and independent thinking.
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9% transaction fees ain’t the future of finance folks
MetaMask just rolled out ETH to fiat withdrawals.
∼9% in transaction fees and 5 minutes later my fiat withdrawal dropped into my bank.🧵(1/8)
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Front page of the Financial Times: The Merge
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Over years I’ve offered ETH to friends getting married/having kids. Few wanted it. Today I’m giving NFT portraits & more want that
It’s hard to explain the utility of ETH to the uninitiated. But everyone ❤️ a digital imprint to showcase. NFTs will be explosive onboarding funnels
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Spreading your portfolio thin to increase probability of hitting a 100 or 1000x is flawed & likely underperforms a concentrated strat doubling down on winners
You can buy 100 lottery tickets. Holding on to them is the hard part. It’s the difference between investing & gambling.
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