Tascha
@TaschaLabs
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Crypto & web3 through macro lens. PhD macroeconomics. Angel investor. Startup advisor. Founder .
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A Crash Course on Crypto Economics in 1 Hour
This twitter course will help you get ahead of 99.9% of population—including all financial "experts" on TV— in understanding crypto, the biggest revolution in the history of finance
Bonus lessons at end on how to think better
👇
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Carrying a rock around your finger is no less absurd than buying a rock jpeg on the internet.
If you can't appreciate the absurdity in ALL human rituals, you'd be a slave to past rituals, not a creator of future ones.
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2021 was good to crypto.
Next year things will look different b/c of changes in macro environment & tech adoption cycle.
Here are top 3 crypto investment themes I’m bullish 📈 & bearish 📉 about for 2022 👇
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Next wave of crypto adoption will come from utility tokens of real-world companies.
Why & how:
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Many people try to value layer 1 blockchain tokens like stocks.
That’s absurd.
Instead of pricing Ethereum, Solana & so on like *companies*, you should price them like *countries*.
Here’s how.
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1995: Amazon is just an online shop for books.
2005: Netflix is just a DVD-in--mail service.
2021: NFT is just jpeg you can right click & save.
It's amazing how many smart people can get the facts very right & yet still comprehend nothing.
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Ethereum will be the new government bond.
Staked ETH, or PoS asset of a dominant blockchain, will replace US Treasuries as the risk-free asset in any portfolio.
This shall be the biggest revolution in the history of financial markets.
Here’s how I think it’ll go down 👇
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The US is in big trouble with twin deficits & high debt.
But few realize that a Fed-issued digital USD token can change the fate of America.
How?
Grab a coffee ☕️ & read on 👇
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If you make a NFT of a real diamond, and the diamond itself gets destroyed in a fire tomorrow, you still have the same asset.
Because the token still exists and is in limited supply just as before. Nothing has changed.
What NFT is doing to the concept of asset, few understand.
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Ranking of active developer counts:
1. Solana
2. Ethereum
3. Elrond
4. Algorand
5. Terra
6. Avalanche
7. Fantom
Solana contributors more than double Ethereum, while market cap is 13%.
I was gonna say "prob nothing" but tbh if you think 'tis nothing you're sleepwalking.
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Crypto will eat fiat.
But it’s not in the way you think.
Monetary policy sovereignty of every country on earth will be weakened by crypto in coming decades.
A rundown of how it may play out, in short term & long term 👇
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If you have trouble figuring out which layer 1 blockchains are investment worthy, it’s not your fault.
There’re so many L1 chains now & things are changing fast. Hard to keep up.
Let’s go through major L1s one by one & assess prospect for each 👇
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The surest bet in crypto:
Blockchain nations with proof of stake as their economic engine 👇
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35 business ideas of how web3 could improve or disrupt the most successful companies:
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Globalization 2.0: The poor in rich countries transfer wealth to the rich in poor countries.
Globalization 3.0: The digital-illiterate transfer wealth to the digital-native in both rich and poor countries.
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In case you haven’t heard, the world’s 2nd largest economy beat the crap out of its big corps this year & made Wall Street lose $700 billion.
Some say China’s autocratic government has gone crazy trying to revive communism. Really? What the hell’s going on?
Grab your popcorn 🍿
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If countries are stocks, which ones should you long & which to short?
I used machine learning to grade the industrial health of 190 countries over 30 years. Here’re results on China, US, India & more.
See which countries I’m bullish & bearish about for the next decade 👇
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Crypto is a systemic shock that’ll make society more equal.
Rising inequality is an inevitable feature of capitalism. But like all systemic shocks through history, the rise of crypto’ll help reset wealth distribution.
Here’s why & what it means for your own wealth strategy 👇
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Amazon stock (or most growth stocks) is no different from "useless governance token".
Amazon doesn't give dividend. Being a share "owner" is in name only, w/ no benefit except hoping other people'll bet on it too so price go up.
All risk asset market valuation is mostly a meme
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This is the most powerful anti-globalization argument I've heard. And it has nothing to do with economics.
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Extreme decentralization is a solution looking for a problem, with very small market demand in real world.
Most btc & eth maxis have yet to wake up to that.
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People angry about a jpeg 🖼 selling for $1 mn fail to see the big picture.
If you understand the nature of assets & long-term macro backdrop, it’s easy to see why NFTs will grow exponentially.
Here’s a simple framework to help wrap your head around this new asset class.
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10 truth about China that mainstream media won’t tell you.
I lived half my life in China, half in US. The US media coverage about China is stuck in the cold war and laughable at best. Yet people eat it up.
Here’re 10 myths about China you often hear that are patently false👇
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Terra eco had 10% of DeFi TVL.
It's bigger than 7 largest US banks' total share in global banking.
Imagine JPMorgan, BoA, Citi, Wells Fargo, GS, Morgan Stanley...go bust all at once.
That's the level of systemic shock we just had.
Spillover'll turn out bigger than you realize
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Ethereum market share 1 year ago: 97%
Ethereum market share today: 67%
Ethereum market share a year from now: 30% ?
The multi-chain universe is only getting started.
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Safe advice most OGs give is to buy BTC/ETH.
That's not an advice I can give in good conscience.
Crypto is a fast growing field. You won't be where OGs are by doing what they did.
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Hodling BTC & ETH doesn’t get you far. Outperformance comes from betting on winners b/f the crowd.
Yes that’s hard. But crypto is more equal than tradFi. W/ solid process, you can beat many larger players.
A 5-step framework for picking winners w/o hot tips or “expert” help 👇
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Today’s problems of web3 are tomorrow’s investment opportunities.
Look for projects that work to solve these 8 big problems of the industry:
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TLDR: Crypto asset allocation game plan for 2022--
1. Hold on to alt L1s
2. Increase exposure to high-quality gaming & performant Eth L2s
3. Lower exposure to DeFi, memecoins, creator platforms & web2 marketplace clones
4. Watch for cross-chain interoperability projects
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It took $240k and 6 years to get my PhD. 4 out of 5 of my classmates didn’t make it to the end.
It was brutal, but it taught me how to think.
To save you quarter million dollars, here are 10 lessons on how to learn about any topic & form your own original insights, quickly👇
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Active address--
Ethereum: 750k
Solana: 1.5 mn
Market cap--
Eth: $500 bn
Sol: $64 bn
Solana has twice the activity of ethereum & yet only 13% of the market cap.
Probably nothing.
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With regulations coming, some say DeFi will lose its edge.
They’re wrong.
“No regulation” is not the winning feature of DeFi. Neither is decentralization. Take those away and DeFi is still 100x better than TradFi.
Here's a look at DeFi’s true competitive advantages 👇
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Osmosis is the most popular decentralized exchange in Cosmos.
A friend asked me if it’s a good long-term investment. Here are some thoughts 👇
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This real-world business is growing 80% a year w/ a most downloaded mobile app & 100 million users.
Their secret? Tokenization.
7 lessons web3 projects can learn from them on how to use tokens to drive growth without being a ponzi:
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5 things to look for in tokenomics (No. 4 is controversial but important):
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Crypto is full of potential & full of bullsh*t.
You’ll be a better investor if you see bear market as a stress test to help you separate the industry’s long term truth from short term delusions.
8 truth & BS in web3 economy at current stage of adoption:
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What would it take for crypto to have a new bull market?
The real answer nobody's talking about:
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Super cycle is practically confirmed at this point.
We're at end Dec & yet there's no bull-run "grand finale" in sight. If your strategy was to cash out at "cycle top", time to rethink that.
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Shocking fact on crypto adoption:
Real global transaction volume in crypto is back to early 2019 level, while prices are much higher (txn volume is deflated by crypto price index to take out price appreciation effect).
I.e. real crypto usage has barely grown since 2019.
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US equities have mkt cap of $46 tn. But only 150 mil US people are stock owners.
Crypto has mkt cap of $1 tn, but 300 mil people world-wide own crypto.
However chaotic, this is the largest democratization of capital ownership humanity has ever seen.
Keep the long view in mind.
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The only tokens that consistently gained mkt shares in past 4 yrs are not Btc, not Eth, not deFi or games.
It's 2 centralized USD stablecoins.
i.e. most robust crypto use case to date is giving the world easy access to the strongest fiat.
Humbling.
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Prediction for next cycle:
Ponzi schemes disguised by clever tokenomics will grow out of fashion.
Projects will focus on partnering with real-life commerce to gain adoption for their tokens.
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Ok, you've all convinced me this is an experiment that needs to be done. So here's the deal.
I'm going to buy a real diamond--> create a NFT for it--> list it on
@opensea
--> destroy the original diamond. I'll ping this tweet on my profile so you can track progress.
Stay tuned.
If you make a NFT of a real diamond, and the diamond itself gets destroyed in a fire tomorrow, you still have the same asset.
Because the token still exists and is in limited supply just as before. Nothing has changed.
What NFT is doing to the concept of asset, few understand.
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The idea of “ownership” is absurd as humans are mortal. You ultimately own nothing & take nothing with you.
Wealth is a temporary illusion.
The gaining & losing of it is a game we play. Pretending it’s real is the fun part.
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Leaving Avalanche Summit in Barcelona feeling more bullish than ever about web3.
Amount of ingenuity, smarts & grit of people in this space is phenomenal.
So many challenges ahead but with this much collective will, mountains will be moved.
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Being cheap, fast & decentralized is NOT enough for a blockchain to win.
Blockchain nations that don’t have good “industrial policy” will lose.
7 industrial policies from nation states that layer 1 chains can adopt for exponential growth 👇
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What blockchain maxis & critics both get wrong-- crypto revolution is in fact NOT about tech.
It's a revolution about how we organize the economy. This is tech agnostic & may or may not involve blockchain.
Understanding this will help you make better investments. Here’s how 👇
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Everyone says if Fed tightens crypto will sell off.
But they forget crypto is global play.
Fed tightens--> $ strengthens--> non-dollar fiats lose value--> crypto demand outside US goes up.
Crypto is more immune to Fed tapering than tradFi assets like stocks & real estate.
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Overall crypto market hasn’t grown in past half yr & will meet w/ more headwind in next 6 mos.
But that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities if you know where to look.
Here’s my market outlook for coming months 👇
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Cross-chain bridges in early 2022 are the decentralized exchanges in early 2021.
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A L2 w/o token will find it hard to get traction.
A L2 w/ token will be bearish for ETH as users sell ETH for L2 coin to chase growth.
Alt L1s don't have such dilemma (yet) & thus remain more attractive.
If you think L2s are the cure to declining ETH dominance, wake up.
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Imagine every alt token says "we'll buy $10bn BTC as reserves w/ free money we got from our made-up mkt cap that was propped up by money flow from BTC in 1st place."
It's like if FTX were to increase leverage limit from 10x to 100x.
Is it bullish?
I must be too old school.
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There's no place to hide. If you want to make it you've got to take risks while using your brain.
OGs are what they are today b/c they did that when BTC/ETH was high risk play.
Copy that spirit, don't copy that trade.
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A checklist for layer 1 blockchain investment ✅
The day when ethereum is one & only in smart contract world is behind us. There’re > 40 L1 & L2 chains w/ more to come.
A framework to help you assess which ones will win & if you’re the operator, how to grow your own chain 👇
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# of ethereum wallets = 129 million
# of solana wallets = 5.5 million
If price ratio is to match wallet ratio in log, ETH at $4000 should imply SOL at $985.
SOL is currently at $190.
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Rumor has it that web3 is dead.
You ask the prophets—TA experts, Fed whisperers, VC insiders. Each tells you something different.
Want to know what's the future of web3?
Here’s the story of how I learned to predict the future of anything 👇
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The most overvalued & undervalued blockchain platforms right now:
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The war of Ethereum vs alt L1s is simply a war btw vested interests & new entrants in crypto masked as an argument about tech.
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Eerie similarities btw internet 2000 & crypto 2022--
1. Users base at ~ 6% global population
2. Both had multi-yr bull run, hyped (correctly) as breakthrough tech, yet still thinly supported by actual use cases
3. Monetary policy headwind (6x Fed rate hikes in 1 yr back then)
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#Bitcoin
fails as a money b/c of its naive monetary policy.
Many people think government printing too much is evil, so a fixed money supply must be good. The reality: a money that cannot expand would crush the economy and put us all in poverty.
Here’s why and how to fix it.
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Despite bear market, web3 adoption is actually growing.
But growth is not evenly distributed.
A review of adoption status of major blockchains + 3 related investment ideas to help you position for next cycle 👇
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What is money? Will crypto change money?
Some controversial opinions:
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Millennials is the largest, yet poorest generation in US.
As they become the main cohort w/ labor earnings in next 20 yrs, they'll drive long-term demand for deFi & NFT.
Yes crypto is speculative. But tradFi assets guarantee failures for them.
The choice is obvious.
Unlike their parents in their 30's, they didnt get gifted equities with a P/E of 7, bond yields at 13% or real estate at the lows versus income. They got the opposite. Their opportunity set was an expected negative future returns. They didn't want any part of our financial system
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Axie Infinity & DeFi Kingdoms are the two biggest crypto games rn, but one is not like the other.
Axie has 7x more users than DFK, and yet only does 0.7x more in volume.
The lesson:
· Location of your user base matters
· Make a game that's actually fun
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Layer 1 chains are the new nation states.
Difference is you can be dual, triple, quadruple citizens without having to give up your old passport.
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Your bank offers 0.2% APY but BlockFi offers 8%. Are high yields in crypto for real?
The answer is yes AND no.
Here’s my review of 6 types of yields in crypto, ranked from most Ponzi 🤡 🤡 🤡 🤡 🤡 to most durable 🏰 🏰 🏰 🏰 🏰.
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Breakout success 2021: Alt L1 chains & NFTs.
Breakout success 2022: Cross-chain solutions & games.
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How to learn anything fast & be an original:
1 Study classics hard
2 Use knowledge arbitrage
3 Dare to make hypotheses
4 Don’t wait for permission
5 Go down rabbit hole
6 Embrace chaos
7 Overwhelm your brain then rest
8 Talk about your ideas
9 Respect idleness
10 Be persistent
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Much of regulatory headwind to crypto is self-inflicted.
Instead of posing as state enemy
#1
, dominant narrative needs to be crypto as a solution to social inequality, as blockchain enables new economic models w/ more equitable value sharing.
The latter is the real revolution.
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By end of this decade every financial product in the world--stocks, bonds, mortgages--will be issued on blockchain.
Not cuz there's any technical need for that. But because on chain economy will be where all the liquidities are parked.
We haven't seen nothing yet.
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Most people wildly underestimate how important it is for a payment medium to have stable valuation.
That's why stablecoin-based payment systems built on 2nd-gen fast, cheap blockchains, e.g. Chai, SolanaPay, will totally crush Bitcoin-based payment rails.
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Sustainable tokeneconomics:
👍🏻 Reward long-term supporters at the expense of short-term opportunists
👎 Reward early adopters at the expense of new entrants
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A revolution is guaranteed to succeed if > 3.5% of population are actively participating.
For web3, that means 277 million global participants.
We're not there yet, but will be in next cycle if you keep building.
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Not seeing value in most metaverse land right now.
Most people forget real estate is a tertiary sector of economy & does well only when productivities in other sectors grow.
Without other activities in a metaverse growing *sustainably* first, there's no point buying land there.
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Stablecoin is an evergreen biz that'll grow be it bull or bear mkt.
Algo stables have bigger room to grow than tradFi stables.
LUNA, FXS, SPELL are beneficiaries of such growth, offer better reward & uncorrelated risk relative to overall crypto.
A sure bet in volatile mkt.
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Total crypto mkt cap is lower than freaking Microsoft stock despite huge social, economic & political impact the former already caused in such short time.
If you actually look around you'll see crypto is undervalued, not over.
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It costs $600 to move a dozen ethereum NFTs to a different wallet.
Hiring a moving company to move my entire house costs less.
I'm all bullish eth, but other chains are going to take biz away from ethereum for at least next 24 months, no question about it.
#Solana
#Avalanche
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This sector is destined to grow. But there’s no mature/dominant players yet & it’s uncertain where the value-added will accrue. (similar to the DeFi situation, which I’ll explain in a sec.)
Watch for promising projects such as Quant & LayerZero.
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Decentralization is NOT the core value prop of either DeFi or NFT.
What makes blockchain unstoppable is new business models made possible by open source + monetary incentive + community.
People harping on about "x is not decentralized enough" are blinded by ideology.
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Next wave crypto adoption is gonna come from integrating crypto into boring real life financial products like mortgages.
Can’t wait.
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Crazy thing just happened.
I'll be joining Tony Blair Institute's Tech Policy Fellowship to develop public policy recommendations for universal basic income using CBDC network.
Def didn't see that coming when I posted tweet below 2 mos ago.
Excited & blessed 🥰
@InstituteGC
Idea:
CBDC ledger network. One staking wallet per citizen. Charge transaction fees on all activities & give them to staking wallets.
'Tis the universal basic income that gives people a stake in their own economy. Literally.
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On crypto side, mass adoption of web 3 tech is only starting.
Experiences from previous two waves of exponential tech— internet and mobile— show that mass-market applications start to get major traction once underlining tech reaches 1 billion users.
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Every startup is a ponzi scheme.
So is every new nation, religion, or crypto asset.
A ponzi is simply using money from newer investors to pay older ones. An obligatory stage for many things that grow fast.
The only difference is how much new value is also created along w/ it.
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Me: I bought a diamond yesterday.
Mom: Nice. They’re good investments.
Me: I’m going to smash it & sell it as a NFT.
Mom: Say again?
So I tried to convince my mother (accountant w/ 30 yr experience) that NFT is a better asset than diamond.
Did I succeed? Let’s find out 👇
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5 non-obvious lessons from Terra/Luna fallout: for future stablecoin investors, builders & regulators 👇
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Spinning up your own blockchain will be easier than deploying a Wordpress site in not-so-distant future.
Avalanche, Cosmos, Near, Ethereum etc will be the new AWS & some more if they play their cards right.
❄️🔺❄️ATTENTION SUBNETOOOOORS❄️🔺❄️
@avalabsofficial
is THRILLED to announce Subnet-EVM (), a Custom VM that makes it easy for anyone to create their own EVM-compatible blockchain on
#Avalanche
using only a JSON file:
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Against these macro & tech cycle backdrops, these 3 crypto sectors are likely winners of 2022.
1. Blockchain gaming
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If you want to learn swimming, jump in a pool.
If you want to boost language skill, live in a native speaking country.
If you want to improve investment judgment, use your own judgment to make investments.
You'll lose, maybe a lot, but still learn faster than reading 100 books
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Contrary to common beliefs, America’s biggest export is not tech, not Hollywood…
It’s the USD.
USD is the biggest money network in the world—used for 40-50% of global trade settlement and int’l credits.
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Cross-chain infrastructure war is heating up.
I'm doing a post on this covering Axelar, LayerZero, Nomad, Analog One.
What other projects do you want to see?
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Key difference btw now & 2018:
1. BTC dominance 30 pp lower
2. real web3 products w/ real users
3. non-speculative investments accelerating
So many high potential projects out there. Even if total crypto mkt doesn't grow for whole yr, you can still make money if you put in work
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Snap judgments on L1/L2s:
· Arbitrum: killing it
· Avalanche, Flow: getting higher engagement w/o user growth-- doing sth right
· Solana: life's difficult, next 6 mos sink-or-swim
· Near: got massive user windfall from Sweatcoin & yet still fail to get engagement. U kidding me?
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Some see crypto market as a bubble & they're right.
What they fail to see is bubble attracts users, investors, builders, who then create fundamentals to substantiate the bubble.
When a misconception of reality gains enough consensus, it becomes the reality.
Mind alters matter.
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Margin Call is the best finance movie ever made.
Am I right or am I right?
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