Tascha
@TaschaLabs
Followers
160K
Following
5K
Media
967
Statuses
9K
Markets and economy in the age of thinking machines. PhD macroeconomics. Angel investor.
Joined January 2013
O1 pro: made simple error, thought about it for 79 seconds, finally came around to utter a reluctant "sorry". Being capable of such complex reasoning at such high speed is indeed the trademark of a superior intelligence
55
5
77
Because functioning well-adjusted agreeable persons with secure attachment are the true neurodivergents… if exists at all
literally everyone i meet calls themselves neurodivergent. what are we even diverging from at this point
22
10
75
Why so many recommending "The Lessons of History" on here? This book is basically what happens when your grandpa recently took a pattern recognition class and proceeds to explain entire human civilization with the confidence and rigor of a horoscope reader.
15
5
68
On large gap-down days, market becomes difficult to trade in either direction because of all the institutional cross-currents creating extreme chop. Just avoid those days all together. Your EV is likely negative. Not worth the stress. Large gap up days don't have same problem.
9
5
47
Seems true to any field— Outsider sees magic. Insider sees crude patcher-upper. Marketing sells dream. Reality is a mixed bag of all above.
10
10
67
If you are actually good, then being “promoted” to management is like the most benign looking death trap ever.
12
3
57
This, of course, assumes you have a viable strategy that you have carefully thought through in the first place. If that's the case, then it is more optimal to: 1. Complete the strategy validation through extensive paper trading at full size 2. Use paper trading to identify and
0
0
16
By deploying at full size immediately, you face the complete challenge upfront, allowing you to focus entirely on adapting to the strategy's true characteristics rather than managing an artificial scaling process. This approach, while potentially more stressful initially,
1
0
15
Scaled deployment extends the period during which you're not collecting meaningful performance data. Since the strategy's actual risk-adjusted returns can only be properly evaluated at full size, starting small delays your ability to validate the strategy in live trading.
1
0
7
Trading at reduced size can also create false confidence. Early success with smaller positions might not accurately represent how you'll react to full-size trades, potentially leading to overconfidence before the real challenge of managing full positions begins.
1
0
7
The compounding effect of multiple scaling adjustments can obscure the strategy's true performance characteristics. Each size increase introduces a new variable, making it harder to distinguish between strategy performance issues and normal statistical variance.
1
0
5
Scaling up gradually doesn't eliminate this challenge; it merely fragments it into multiple smaller but prolonged adjustment periods, potentially extending the total psychological stress over a longer timeframe. A strategy's expected performance metrics are based on specific
1
0
7
Position sizing is an integral component of any trading strategy, as carefully developed and integrated with entry and exit rules. Artificially constraining position size means you're not actually trading the strategy you tested, but rather a different system with modified risk
1
0
7
Starting small and gradually scaling up creates multiple psychological adjustment periods. Each time you increase position size, you must readjust to new profit and loss magnitudes, essentially forcing yourself to adapt repeatedly to what is fundamentally the same trading setup.
1
1
6
Why "starting small and working your way up" may not be optimal when deploying new trading strategy. The temptation to scale up gradually feels safer. The fear of large, immediate losses and the need to "get comfortable" make this approach seem responsible. However...
5
8
52
The problem with “build things people want” is— if you are too good at it, you may just forget why you got started in the first place. And without that reason there’s no point building anything at all.
5
8
35
Had problem in code. A tricky one. Gave it to Claude. Couldn’t solve after multiple tries. Gave it to o1 pro. Did it after 3 attempts. May keep paying the $200 after all.
5
1
44
Sure, Shakespeare is just some arrangements of 26 letters. Very trivial indeed.
People have too inflated sense of what it means to "ask an AI" about something. The AI are language models trained basically by imitation on data from human labelers. Instead of the mysticism of "asking an AI", think of it more as "asking the average data labeler" on the
3
0
25