Robot James 🤖🏖
@therobotjames
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Pinned Tweet
If you are insistent on trading for yourself, here’s my best advice:
- prioritise doing whatever you can TODAY to give yourself the best chance of making money TODAY.
- don’t try to solve problems you don’t have yet.
Rinse and repeat every day and you might just survive.
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"it'll be easier to talk about this, let's hop on a quick 5-minute call"
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Last night, an imaginary friend called me in tears
She just lost her 200k job at a 420+ person company
The culprit? AI stuff.
This is a wakeup call to all the people I don’t like and think are overpaid.
Here is a cringe LinkedIn post as a Twitter thread 🧵
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Sydney Sweeney reveals in an interview that financial returns are not normally distributed.
“Mean-variance optimisation, Sharpe ratio AND the Black-Scholes formula are completely useless and can’t be used to make money,” she muses.
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Rules.
- Never speak of a position that is going well. Do not anger the market gods.
- Never gloat about PnL
- Especially, never gloat about PnL when the broad market is down or others are hurting.
- Speak only of trades that went disastrously wrong in an amusing way.
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How to make money trading, as a random d!ckhead.
Trading requires us to buy things cheaper than they should be / sell things richer than they should be.
But how could I, some random guy from New Zealand who trades in his underpants, know what things should be worth?
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Quick thread on "price" changes and market makers.
Consider a market that looks like this.
The best bid is 98
The best offer is 102
What's the price?
Depends who's asking.
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i did an exhaustive summary of kelly criterion mathematics and present my summary of the implications on position sizing
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In my 20 years of trading I have noticed this cycle play out again and again with traders that "make it":
1. Overconfidently reach for returns
2. Get humbled by the market
3. Simplify + concentrate on clear, high probability edges.
1/n
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I suspect The Big Short did a lot of damage to traders of that generation.
It looks fun as hell:
> Do a bunch of research
> Put on massive, concentrated contrarian position
> Get super rich
Unfortunately, that's an absolutely terrible way to go about making money.
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Let's talk about various manipulative shenanigans that used to go on at FTX.
We'll start with something widespread on sh1tcoin perpetual futures: funding rate manipulation.
If you looked at trades in the trash that FTX listed, you'd see all these min qty trades
What are they?
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Why do VIX Futures trade at different prices to VIX?
Derivatives can be complicated, but the answer to this question is not.
If you understand how the market prices risk then you'll know a lot without needing to know a lot.
Let's walk through it. 🧵👇
1/n
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stop trying to beat djokovic at tennis.
the first fundamental problem traders run up against is that there's no beginners' market.
you gotta compete for good prices with the best in the market.
this is a problem.
there are a lot of people better at markets than you.
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@Jason
hey bestie, remember when you were having an all caps meltdown, begging for your bank to be bailed out?
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some personal advice
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Option Pricing for Degenerate Gamblers
You buy a call option in a heavily pumped meme stock you think is going to keep going up.
You were right, it keeps going up!
But your call is losing value. Why?
🧵for those who shouldn't be trading options but are going to anyway!
1/n
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I recently watched both and it’s amazing how much better The Big Short is compared to Margin Call.
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Hey young people.
You seem to think you’re going to regret not grinding hard enough, or not making enough money when you’re young.
I don’t think you will.
I think you’ll regret the ways you were selfish, pre-occupied, distracted, unkind.
At least that’s my experience. ❤️
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The first rule of trading is that when you are killing it, when everything is going great, when you can't stop making money, keep your damn mouth shut about it.
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If you lost a lot of money, it doesn't make you a bad person.
Please don't be ashamed.
Please don't hide.
Please don't feel you need to deal with it all alone.
People love you. Talk to them.
If you can't, talk to someone confidentially.
You're not alone.
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trading is hard.
if you disagree, that's cos you haven't done it for long enough.
you can get lucky for a while - but your luck will inevitably turn
you can find yourself doing the right thing at the right time for a while - but markets adapt quicker than you can, typically.
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@mszrsmerci
I’d get my laptop out to work on some spreadsheets, then realise my heart isn’t really into it, dunno why, always feel a bit drained on a flight, so I’ll watch Beckham instead, ask for an orange juice, a water and a few salty snacks, then look for at the animated map for a bit
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The best traders I know have little "conviction" in any position.
Historically successful directional traders (Druck etc) may talk about "conviction" but look at how quickly they change their mind when price moves against them.
Flexibility. Lack of attachment or ego. 🧘
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jobs are the best carry trade going, man.
they pay you money even if you do them really badly.
like, you can really fk everything up, and they still give you money.
incredible yield.
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Broadly, there are 3 types of systematic trading strategy that can "work".
In order of increasing turnover:
1. Risk premia harvesting
2. Economically-sensible, statistically-quantifiable slow-converging inefficiencies
3. Trading fast-converging supply/demand imbalances
👇👇👇
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thoughts on statistical inference in adaptive markets via a toy example
say someone starts coming in every day at 2pm and doing a significantly large TWAP buy.
maybe they're hedging or rebalancing or doing some other mechanical price-insensitive thing.
what happens?
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I had planned to teach a course this year.
Given recent FTX events, I'm kinda beat, and could do with a rest.
So, I'm going to push it to Jan. Really sorry if that hurts your plans. 🙏
Instead, I'm going to run two free zoom sessions, available to anyone who wants to attend.
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If you are a long-only equity guy about to congratulate yourself publicly for your prudence in not using cryptocurrency exchanges.
Just don't.
If we want advice on managing diabetes, erectile disfunction, or creeping out female staff, we'll be sure to ask.
But sit this one out
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If you put a trade on, the following can happen.
There are two sources of variance in your outcomes:
1. am I right or wrong?
2. am I lucky? (did random unforecastable events help or hinder my position)
For small numbers of trades, 2 totally dominates.
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at some point, volatility is going to spike a lot.
and lots of you are going to get rekt cos you didn't have a good plan for what to do, or you didn't stick to it.
i can't have that on my conscience - i got enough already - so pls read this and make a plan.
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you probably shouldn't trade.
certainly, it's a bad strategy for making lots of money.
but, if you're stubborn like me, you'll do it anyway.
these two articles explain the most important things i have to tell you about it:
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this paper is hilarious
the 151 "trading strategies" start with a bunch of mundane options positions
then it escalates real quick into actual effective strategies including:
> money laundering
> pawnbroking
> loan sharking
incredible stuff 10/10
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a couple of simple trade-off considerations re: kwant trading signals that may or may not be obvious.
here's the price of a thing....
the main job is to predict how it's likely to move.
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the onlyfans girls seem to have a better handle on capital markets than most of you.
whenever i post a stellar finance take, they're the first (and sometimes the only ones) to like it.
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@Onorpik
just one quick question bro, what the fk is this tweet?
maybe stop imagining fake things to get scared about?
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i tell you a trading edge.
it'll probably look something like "<x> tends to get mispriced when <y> happens because <z>"
ideally we have some causality we understand or strongly suspect
and some empirical evidence of this being the case, in the past, or in similar situations.
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this is just really sad.
no good will come from thinking like this.
try to look for the good in ppl if you can.
not this.
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People who have traded for 2 years are very sure of everything.
People who have traded for 2 decades are only sure that they don't know sh!t.
But knowing this won't enlighten anyone.
Learning is a process. You can't jump to the end.
But it's useful to know there's no end.
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Reminder that most people saying "+EV" have zero idea what the expected value of the activity they are talking about is.
It's just nerds backward-rationalizing stuff they've decided they want to do.
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HFT, Non-Stationarity, Adverse Selection
You predict the fair value of some instrument: where you expect it to be trading in the future if nothing else happens
If there's an offer to sell it cheaper than your fair value forecast, you might consider buying it (lifting the offer)
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@AutismCapital
it's kinda an impossible job in the first place tho, right?
you got SBF making huge high-conviction longs in totally illiquid dogshit.
then expecting his traders to hedge that somehow whilst maintaining upside potential??
i guess lily would have at least told him to fk off
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Let’s say you model the world as some kind of Markov process, if you have enough variables or hidden Markov process, you need to do a stochastic path integral of all possible futures, and you’ll find that’s theres effectively zero probability that e/acc will ever get any bitches
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a new tony robbins book about private asset investing came out today.
some serious people are actually reviewing it.
i can tell you with complete confidence, without picking it up, that it's shit.
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This is genius
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I noticed you quoted a sharpe ratio there. You might not know this - which is forgivable, of course - but financial asset returns do not actually follow a normal distribution, but rather exhibit fat tails, skewness, volatility clustering and leverage effects.
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Kate Middelton has downloaded daily ohlc data with yfinance and she's training a neutral network to predict day ahead returns.
Kate Middleton has been working from home on special project, palace confirms
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Real problems vs LARP problems in automated quant trading.
Occasionally I read a long Twitter thread about some quant thing.
And - let's try to be kind - it is clear the person is writing from an "inspirational" rather than "experiential" standpoint.
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Men will literally try to teach themselves Python instead of using a pivot table.
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intuition of log returns
when you do anything with data, you should think about the intuition of each thing you do, and what it represents "in the real world".
let's take the example of log returns, which some people tell me they find confusing.
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@kempton_timothy
Hot take:
Don’t let LinkedIn-posting dweebs on the internet tell you when you’re allowed to fall in love.
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if you try to teach yourself quant trading from the internet or from scientific papers, you run the risk of spending a lot of time majoring on minor sh1t.
you see it on here all the time.
the simplest, closest-to-hand tool for the job is what you want.
at least to start.
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a mathematical technique is not a trading edge
a trading edge is a mispricing.
someone willing or forced to sell too cheap, buy too rich.
how did that come about?
why hasn't someone else taken it already?
what sucks about it?
it ain't maths class.
c**ts buying and selling
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If you’re trying to make us dislike ray dalio, claiming he makes billion dollar fx punts off FRED data, excel and vibes is not the way to do it.
sounds baller af
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For every guy reading econometrics textbooks to try to get a trading edge, there’s a guy on a yacht making millions trading spreads on eyeballed levels.
Now if youI’ll excuse me I’m gonna have Heidi lick some caviar off my balls…
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The first lesson is that trading is incredibly hard.
Nearly everyone is lying to you about this.
Some are telling you that you just need to find a simple repeatable process.
Some are telling you that you just need to pay attention to the Fed, or sentiment, or positioning.
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@aaronsibarium
You have to TELL PEOPLE to avoid group chats that use the N-word?
They can’t figure this out by themselves? Jfc
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i asked ChatGPT to draw a world class generalist who can write compelling tweet threads on literally any topic.
then i kept asking it to make the guy look even more knowledgeable.
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A simple thread about position sizing and volatility targeting 👇
You have $1,000
You buy $1,000 of SPY
You leave it alone
The volatility of SPY over the period was 18%
What is the volatility of your portfolio?
Not a trick question. It's 18%
1/n
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thinking of writing a book on risk management called “Everything is too risky if you’re a pussy”
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@SHK_Movement
what are you even talking about?
the world is awesome. It’s tons of fun here. having kids is rewarding, you get to share it with them.
you thinking the world is bad seems like a massive skill issue on your part.
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> What's quant trading like, James?
Well, sometimes the bots start losing money and I don't really know why. So I turn them off.
> What do you then, James?
I give it a bit of time, and then I turn them on again and hope they start making money
> I see. Sounds very scientific.
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don't let serious people stop you from doing things
you can just do things. no-one can stop you.
You took a JavaScript bootcamp, made a few basic web apps just like the tutorials showed you, and now you’re writing “engineer” in your bio. You feel like an imposter because you are one brother 🤣🤣
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What you might hope a stop-loss rule does vs what it actually does.
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> Bets on heads
> Wins
> Declares outcome to have been easily forecastable
> Declares tails to be idiots
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People say a lot of things about trading, and most of it is worthless.
So it's useful to be able to quickly discard ideas.
Let's take an example...
Many in crypto, including
@zhusu
, will tell you that buying new highs is a good plan.
Is it? Let's have a look...
1/n
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ppl taking too much risk, trying to “make it”
there’s never any making it. you just keep doing stuff.
there’s nowhere need to be that isn’t here.
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You're not looking for unique edges nobody else has discovered.
You're looking for opportunities people pass over because exploiting them is unattractive.
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@growing_daniel
bet he took those masks off quicker than i crack a beer when the rest of the family leaves for a trip without me.
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@american_sicko
lmao this is some brave ass shitposting. 🫡
Id never have the commitment to the bit to follow through like this.
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You gotta latch on to big, obvious, indisputable observations.
> Stock indexes tend to go up.
> People overpay for comfy sh!t like positive skew
> People pay up for immediacy / liquidity
> Large price-insensitive trading can distort prices.
Don't build around marginal ideas.
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