MJH📈📉
@hedgie007
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#EvladınaSahipÇıkTürkiye
• 147751 Tweets
Arda Güler
• 135121 Tweets
Davido
• 74249 Tweets
Crimea
• 67180 Tweets
Dagestan
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Foolio
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Switzerland
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Hungary
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San Juan
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Derbent
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Chioma
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gracie
• 25099 Tweets
Makhachkala
• 24874 Tweets
Musiala
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Espanyol
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Oviedo
• 18574 Tweets
Suiza
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#SUIGER
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سويسرا
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Bruno Henrique
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Havertz
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Dave Grohl
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PIRATE KINGS IN MOROCCO
• 10008 Tweets
$AMZN
AWS backlog results are even more staggering than revenue. +61% y/y
Just to be clear, this is more than the current run rate of the business. Already booked. On the balance sheet.
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@CAGR_Party
Refining your understanding/usage of the Pareto Principle is THE biggest unlock.
80% of the value creation/thesis/upside/modeling/work/channel checks etc. is in the first 20% of the work. The first week. The next 2 months of “work” just builds confirmation bias & endowment effect
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9pm Israel.
Reading a 10K.
Rocket siren goes off.
Wife is out.
I wake up my 2 year old and 5 year old, pick up one in each arm, and run to the bomb shelter.
Hear the booms overhead.
“What’s that Daddy?”
“Nothing”
Put kids back to bed.
9.16pm.
Back to my 10K.
🇮🇱
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@CAGR_Party
Ironically (I’m a “PE-approach-to-public-equities” fundamental purist) - it’s the deluge of fundamental information that is over-consumed.
The most efficient approach is to *quickly* understand:
(1) the bull/bear debate
(2) what is misunderstood
(3) what makes the stock go up
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Why is EBITDA *ever* a better metric than EBIT for proxying normalized cashflow / for valuation purposes?
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$PRM (Perimeter Solutions). Completed some prelim work; what follows is a thread that evaluates $PRM as an *investment opportunity*, by an investor, for investors.
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My favorite kind of Tegus transcript:
HF Bro: Hey, we’ve already done a ton of work here, but we still have some q’s. Is it A?
Ex-CEO: No, it’s B
HF Bro: Ok, but like, it’s A right?
Ex-CEO: Uhm, no, it’s B
HF Bro: That’s kind of the same as A though?
Ex-CEO: Sure, whatever
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Met a super intelligent allocator today who said that he rarely invests with Millenium spinoff guys. He finds their chance of failure to be far *higher* once they leave the cushy infrastructure, risk mgmt, and guardrails of Millenium platform.
Interesting perspective.
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Cannot wrap my head around $ABNB
Looks like a multi-year compounder, but I can’t wrap my head around sleeping in someone’s house for $160 when I could stay at a Hilton for $200?
I just don’t get it 🤔
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Are any $SMRT investors somewhat concerned that:
- The CEO earns over $750k as a salary (~50% higher than peers)?
- The CEO has hired his wife as Chief of Staff, who earns more than the CFO. But her resume doesn’t seem to be anywhere? She doesn’t even have LinkedIn
(1/x)
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@CAGR_Party
Classic that this guy still got the job because he memorized how to solve a fermi problem about fitting golfballs inside a 747.
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Most analysts (even the smartest ones) struggle with the 80/20 rule. Too focused on the model & details, but forget the big picture. It’s probably the key reason they never progress to becoming world class investors. I struggle with this naturally.
How do you work on this?
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Hi - I’d like to report a crime. I’m looking for $183k of missing audit fees. In a $2.5B revenue company.
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@sidecarcap
It shows how under-developed and primitive the frameworks were in early 2000's for thinking about how growth investments pollute the P&L, and that a normalized unit economic margin should always be used in conjunction with EV/S multiples to infer a normalized EV/NOPAT multiple
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Anti-semitism has been sewn into the blueprint of existence.
Jews always have, and always will be, hated irrationally.
And against all odds, we have survived and thrived, as a tiny nation living in a tiny sliver of perpetually contested land.
This time is no different 🇮🇱
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A funny thought:
The QQQ is up 44% and someone, somewhere, today, is pitching his new tech-focused fund which will invest in 10-15 hand-picked stocks in an attempt to outperform the market.
He will charge 20% carry for the privilege
Even funnier, someone is allocating to this
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@qcapital2020
Love how investors are surprised when a company that openly disrespects and disregards shareholders from Day 0 (with dual share class / no-voting shares) ends up…continuing to disrespect shareholders by using the company account as their personal piggy bank
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Anyone out there use BBG/CapIQ/Factset in a prior life but have now switched to a lower cost alternative (i.e. Sentieo/Koyfin/Refinitiv Eikon)?
Would love to get some feedback on your experience...
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The more I study fixed income, the more I realize that equity is a catch-all tranche for the risks that FI investors don't want to assume.
This tranche is *surgically* carved out by the FI investor using far more scientific techniques than are even available to equity investors
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Math Fundamentals - A Lesson:
If you paid $196 for a stock that now trades at $95, this isn't a "free call option"
$META is my largest position and I’ve been wrong so far but..
If they pivot away from reality labs and go back to the current family of apps, the stock is basically a double over night
Basically getting a free call option on the metaverse which I believe will be a huge success
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@AlhadeedBader
@Angelo4justice3
Clearly have never seen a manicure before. This is what a manicure looks like after it has grown out by about 2 weeks.
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Beware of the grifters
Cashflows on $100k investment so far:
The distribution amounts that I'm receiving off an RE fund (Mobile Home Parks) that promised a 7 pref could be used as a random number generator.
Here was me (idiot) thinking that $1m x 7% pref = 70k annual = $17.5k quarterly.
Not a single disty is remotely close to this number
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It’s kind of amazing that if at any point in time over the last 20-30 years, you’d have just bought the S&P500 with a modest amount of leverage, say 1.3x, you’d be considered a world class PM having generated about 12-13% IRR net of interest costs
What do HFs *really* exist for?
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I once met a guy on LinkedIn whose title said “Investor at NYSE”
I DM’ed him to ask about this interesting job; I didn’t know the NYSE had their own pop trading desk?
He responded that what he means is he buys stocks on the NYSE.
Invitation to connect: Declined
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1st place @ C.Booth Investment Competition has a variant perception:
“We ran a survey and discovered…”
“Mgmt said 4k stores; we think they are wrong”
“ARPU was x before COVID, then it dropped. We think it should be the same as pre-COVID”
Is this s*** seriously still going on?
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@shawngorham
I don’t see any ice baths in your routine. Apparently this is one of the keys to making more money.
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@midtown_rob
Cody Sanchez, except she tells you that you can do it with only 5 hours of work a week, no job, and 3 vending machines.
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It is surprising that Factset has not yet created FactSet chat which would further narrow the competitive gap between itself and BBG for equity analysts. Why have they not done this?
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The distribution amounts that I'm receiving off an RE fund (Mobile Home Parks) that promised a 7 pref could be used as a random number generator.
Here was me (idiot) thinking that $1m x 7% pref = 70k annual = $17.5k quarterly.
Not a single disty is remotely close to this number
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@LukeWolgram
Looking ahead? Best age to launch a new fund is probably never. If you’re a money maker, best stress-adjusted returns *by a long shot* is a seat at a larger already established fund.
“The world definitely needs another fundamentals-based L/S fund” - No one ever
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Starting to see investment letters that were abruptly halted in 3Q22 "due to SEC clamping down on certain types of marketing" starting to re-emerge
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Fintwit end of October: “I’m no longer posting my YTD portfolio returns (narrator: which no one asked for), I feel like I’m yelling into the wilderness, I’m leaving X”
Fintwit end of November: “I’m back, and here is my portfolio return YTD (narrator: which no one asked for)
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@GordonGekko420
This moronically low EQ decision is unfortunately prevalent in the industry. (Not discussed enough)
Imagine being so emotionally bankrupt that you don’t realize giving your analyst a $300 toy makes him feel like a million dollars and gives him new enthusiasm to work every day..
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Love that rare occurrence of a zero-sum game where the public guys sold a donut to the private guys for $3.5B 🤌
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A thought experiment:
If you have a $10 stock that you think should go to $13 within a year (30% prospective IRR), logic dictates that you should buy the stock on the basis of the alternative/hurdle (S&P) doing ~10% annually.
What do you do if the stock hits $12 in 6 months?
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@0xFuckleroy
@CAGR_Party
As long as your work leads you to differentiated insight *which leads to being right* (1) more than you are wrong and/or (2) on position sizes that are larger than position sizes when you are wrong.
If not, you are in the good company of 99.9% of ppl who shouldn’t pick stocks
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$CRCT discloses their sole manufacturer of machines (Xiamen), who sell the machines under their own private label for ~60% below CRCT's selling price.
[CRCT's machine COGS represent ~40% of Xiamen's revenues ...but Xiamen is a sole manufacturer for CRCT]
How does Abdiel sleep?
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@leekern13
They already blew up the tube in 2005. Never since has there been a higher risk time of it reoccurring than now��
Stay in Israel with us Lee 😊
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***Attention FinTwit Community***
I am looking to make a move to a US-based fund as an Analyst/Sr. Analyst
I do not live in the US, so this would be a remote-role
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Information edge still exists…
…on flights to/from NYC!
Sitting adjacent to a PE associate who obviously forgot to put on a privacy screen.
He’s just cruising around the Excel using ESC+F2, not actually working (Weird flex)
Logos and
#s
all visible
(Don’t ask me for names)
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CIO of Parnassus Investments:
We run a very concentrated book of 40 positions.
Yeah - we don’t bother with “starter positions”, we need to have full conviction in our positions to invest. So a minimum has to be at least 1%.
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There were 300,000 pro-Palestinian activists who marched today in London.
There are 300,000 Jews in the UK, in total.
Let these numbers sink in.
There are 16 million Jews in the world.
Just let that sink in for a minute.
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@dalibali2
This is the kind of mental framework that would save many analysts days of work before arriving at the same conclusion. But they’d rather not use this mental framework “because it’s too simple”.
Simple, yeah.
But also, totally valid.
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$WING - What's priced in for a 20% IRR?
(1) 10 years of rev growth at 31%. This is an acceleration from last 5 year CAGR of 22%
(2) Terminal OPM/FCF margin of 20%/16% (DPZ: 18%/14%)
(3) Growing revs @ 15% thereafter, deserving of a 30x NTM FCF multiple (DPZ 5-Yr avg.)
So, WTF?
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@emanumiller
“The Israeli military also released documents which *they said* were recovered from dead Hamas members, containing detailed operational planning and instructions for attacking the neighbourhoods and taking hostages”
“they said”?
They still can’t help themselves.
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@JetSkiGolfLife
@HaydenCapital
Dedication: Spending over an hour playing & pausing a video to extract quotes, just to manufacture ultimate shitpost.
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@GenericHf
Schoolboy error. He will learn quickly that he needs to raise the exit multiple over time to get to the hurdle because “it’s a compounder”
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@EcJayhawk
Making the BBG terminal login feel like disarming an explosive is all about helping insecure circlejerk bros feel more important than they actually are. The same folks who say they’re undergoing a dry powder capital extraction event, instead of saying they’ve just gone to an ATM
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When you live in a country without Krispy Kremes, you just have to make them yourself
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@GordonGekko420
It’s representative of a deeper issue: The MD doesn’t care about his employees. And I totally get you. Is he doing this to save a few hundred dollars?
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The amount of people who straight up BS’ed me over the weekend that they backed up the truck and loaded up on $FRC at $40-50 on Friday are squirming as they now have to unravel their lie.
“Ah it was only a tiny position” is the most common answer.
Uhm, yeah, this is a 100% lie.
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@MoS_Investing
Blockbuster's last store in Bend Oregon.
Market cap is very low (zero), and has a monopoly on renting out physical DVDs
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@callerycap
@joshhwesterman
1. His career in finance is a testament to his strategic brilliance, innovative thinking, and exceptional leadership.
2. He infused the hedge fund with innovative strategies and dynamic leadership, establishing it as a significant player in the financial sector
Is it clear now?
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Imagine if II was abolished, and a sell-side research analysts’ comp/promotion schedule was tied to….
wait for it….
….performance of stock recommendations!
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Basically:
Last 15 Years / ZIRP: Focus on the business.
Next 10 Years: Focus on the stock.
Most 40yo guys in the game became PMs during last 15 yrs. Long good / short bad businesses (at any multiple) has worked for most of this time.
All of a sudden, the *stock* matters again.
Many 40+ year-old PMs either a) have no idea or b) don't care about how market structure has changed in the last several years (passive, quant, pods, etc.). The conversations are both funny and disturbing.
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What is the correct etiquette vis a vis the stranger facing you when sitting Yin & Yang seating configuration?
#BA
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Any great primers out there on building an adjusted (“economic”) P&L for companies that are investing through the P&L, and are therefore “showing losses” or depressed margins…?
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Call with CFO (December 12) - “Our company actually fares even better in a weak economy and recessionary environment. This is quite misunderstood about our business, but we are counter-cyclical”
Call with CFO (December 14) - “Our company will do much better in a strong economy”
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HC Wainwright cannot think of a single company that it would sell right now out of its universe of 628 companies.
Bullish!
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I still believe the market top was when Howard Marks sent out a COVID-cabin-fever-induced memo saying he’d been enlightened by being cooped up with his son, and now appreciated the wonderful ways of investing free FED money into early stage VC.
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Red flags:
1. 2 decimal points. Why introduce fake accuracy into something that is inherently a BS output from your excel model?
2. Deal IRR. This is akin to using ex-SBC metrics. But SBC is a real cost. And so are GP fees.
3. Estimated LP IRR on equity is 11-12%. WTF.
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PE managing director hands you a pencil, and says "You have 2 minutes to solve the following problem":
If we want to own a 51% stake in a company valued at 100m pre-money, and we want to do 50% primary/50% secondary, what's the total check size?
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@kcerminara
I’d balance the magnitude with the relative position size (% of Net Worth).
Some wonderful 35 year old investors may have only saved $500k as they were building their family in parallel with their investment expertise.
$400k (80%) of that going into the fund is a good sign..
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- The acquisition that they did for $135m in 2022 was a company that was part owned by (1) one of their largest shareholders and (2) a SMRT BoD director
- The CEO and 3 of the directors (the chairs of the company and audit committees) all worked together at prior companies
🤮
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That electric feeling in the air when picking up coffee the morning after Iran has tried to bomb your country.
It’s indescribable.
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Does this mean my CS research access that I have from a HF I worked at 5 years ago is going to get shut off?
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@TripleNetInvest
Have you considered that:
1. 10 year treasury can drop with short rates. It is a floating rate.
2. Real estate yields can grow with nominal rent growth. Bonds do not.
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It really is just so fascinating, and peculiar, that intelligent people think that the market gives a f**k about how well an investment by a minority shareholder is understood.
@hedgie007
@COValueInvestor
@CliffordSosin
@CliffordSosin
knows his big bets in and out. He knows CVNA a lot better than the the shorters being right right now.
Carvana’s drop is also not that Carvana specific, it is a part of a general move in tech.
Shorters in UPST, SE, DASH, AG1. DE etc has been right to.
>>>
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Mkt has been willing to pay over 20x NTM EPS for the last 8 years for the deposit biz; even ex-ID noise, organic deposit biz rev growth of MDD justified this.
Mkt now paying ~10x for the deposit biz...*which is still growing MDD*
Even if we split the difference...$15?
$MITK
$MITK is currently trading at ~ 10x the deposit business right now with no value ascribed to ID.
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The general rule of SPAC still applies: If it’s a high-quality asset it will have institutional demand, and they will buy it in an IPO. If it’s a POS, the SPAC is a perfect (borderline fraudulent) vehicle to bring it to mkt with minimal scrutiny by intelligent investors.
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Can someone explain clearly why the return profile of investing in a KKR- managed fund as an LP (illiquid LP interest) would be different to investing in the publicly traded shares of KKR (the GP)
I’ll posit a few of my ideas, please help out with others:
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A topic I don't think I have seen discussed is *initial* thesis creep. A quick thread:
In HF world (or my process anyway), the first question I always ask myself when an idea comes across my desk is "Why is this interesting?"
(1/8)
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@pmje73
A fundamental-research driven long short equity fund that charges 2/20 for employing its proprietary “private equity approach to investing in public equities” with a competitive advantage that no one else can replicate, of “having a longer time horizon”.
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Any idea why he splits his 10% position into GOOG & GOOGL? Why not just take one of them?
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Chapter 2:
What do you even respond to this?
“Sorry, but do your other LPs know that your marketed projections of 15% IRR and 1.9x MOIC actually mean 12% / 1.7x to the LP and rely on a 4.5% exit cap rate in 5 yrs on Class B MF in Kansas City”?
LPs are getting f****d 😞
Red flags:
1. 2 decimal points. Why introduce fake accuracy into something that is inherently a BS output from your excel model?
2. Deal IRR. This is akin to using ex-SBC metrics. But SBC is a real cost. And so are GP fees.
3. Estimated LP IRR on equity is 11-12%. WTF.
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1. S&P returns between 2011-2021 were approx evenly driven by valuation (ERP↓) and fundamentals (mostly rev↑, some margin expansion)
2. 22' YTD 13%↓ = Valuation 16%↓ (Mostly 10 Yr↑ + surprisingly further ERP↓) + Fundamentals 3.5%↑ with NTM EBITDA margins 2%↓ = rev growth
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Everyone has a hot take on the market right now, all the way up to the most experienced PMs.
But they all say the same thing:
“Revenue growth and ROIC is especially important in this environment”
Huh? When isn’t it?
Either it’s over my head, or these takes aren’t insightful
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Some serious discussions between people on this thread about whether the 5% yield is monthly or annually.
Some have remarked that if 5% monthly, it would be “remarkably hard to pass up”
I tend to agree.
You can now buy a 1-Year US Treasury bill and earn 5% on your money.
When was last time we saw yields that high?
July 23, 2007.
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That’s all folks. Looking forward to the bulls responding with "But Howley, TDG, Outsiders, Tiger, Compounder, Harvard, Thorndike, Playbook, Value-Based-Pricing and Flywheel...can make this a good investment". Because I honestly would love to know how.
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@chernobelskiy
IRR projection to 2 decimal places.
The inclusion of decimals at all, and how many decimal places, contains some of the most valuable information about the GP, and his emotional makeup as an investor.
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