Dr Sandeep Parwaga
@drsparwaga
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PhD, Millennial, Christian, Pro- #Brexit , Deutsch/English, @AudiUK (A7 owner), @harleydavidson rider (Sportster+Street Glide Special owner), bubble talk
United Kingdom
Joined March 2020
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THREAD: I decided to do a small thread on the UK housing ‘market’ because too many are totally oblivious to its machinations. So here it is. Please share.
@HousePriceMania
@Renegade_Inc
@maxkeiser
@PlanetPonzi
@UkPropertyLion
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@unusual_whales
The snowflakes over there arent gonna handle that lol. They never had to work a real job. Just sitting in lounges sipping on soy juice all day.
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@GRomePow
@BriannaWu
80/20 phenomenon. Feminism has caused the dynamic to turn where 20% of men get 80% of the women. Means more men dont have any.
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@POPSUGARFashion
@lizzo
Amazing how people cheer her on to be a bad role model. This is absurd.
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MMT deception at work. No mention that rates are being kept down. In normal market, rates would rise if debt becomes unsustainable.
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@EssexPR
Was in Central London on Saturday and visited a venue (wont name it). On email said covid pass will be required for entry with vacc status or neg test. They ended up asking for nothing upon entry. It’s bs, and most businesses know this Im sure. Gov knows it’s a legal quagmire.
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@statsjamie
And we got called nuts for saying how devastating lockdowns were on multiple levels, including mental health.
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@kizer_kevin
@BritMartinez
‘Even more jacked’. Bro, if that is you in the pic, you arent jacked at all lol. Stop the tough talk. Going to the gym doesnt protect you whatsoever, because there is always someone more jacked than you.
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@The_Kafir_boy
@MuslimShirzad
Wow, cant believe the plane actually took off with those people still on there…
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@PolemicTMM
Yup, if you get margin called it meant you were likely gambling, and if volatility hits it becomes deadly. And hedge funds who shorted the £ and probably the long end exacerbated the issue😂 Classic. BoE bailing out gamblers, nothing new to see here.
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‘Cadbury is shrinking the size of Double Decker and Wispa Gold bars sold in multipacks so they contain less than 200 calories in an attempt to help tackle obesity, but the smaller bars will cost the same.’ Shrinkflation. Nothing to do with calories. Liars!
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@NellyHusz
Remember how they used to deny that the way they dressed didnt encourage men from becoming sexually aroused and make them targets for sexual assault? But hey, ma freedom! I dress how I want!
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@jamesperloff
It’s amazing the arrogance that Gates is displaying. Clearly, millions of people see through his lies, yet he still acts if people listen to him.
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@pafournier
@MartyMakary
You are missing the point. The funding bias has been a well known problem in science for a long time, whereby funders (often with their own agendas) want to see certain results instead of actual results.
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@CromwellStuff
@HouseofCommons
Maybe Julian and his secretary wish to help out and fill the soon to be empty vacancies when people rather leave instead.
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@Rainmaker1973
A rare breed. Guy used his full intellect and talent to make something of himself. That certainly needs to be admired.
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@AlessioUrban
Will be a complete massacre. Mortgage rates 2-3x higher than 2021 or entire last decade and rising as bond yields rise again, food inflation 20%+, energy bills going up again, unemployment gonna go up eventually, household debt skyhigh, etc.
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The great unwind of the 'housing as a pension' is already underway. Rising rates will cause the shift back to 'traditional' investments for old people. Safer and way less risky. Means we wont hear more of this supply shortage nonsense down the road.
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@AlessioUrban
UK food inflation 12.4% in Nov, from 11.6% in Oct. No sign of a let up. Englandzuela.
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Looks like housing is already collapsing before rates are even raised, and this despite the seemingly strong investor/banking purchases. They have cornered themselves in lol.
10% drop in house prices in December.
Almost whipping out 2021 gains...
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@JavierBlas
@BobOnMarkets
Most of them will end up empty and abandoned developments, just like 2008.
@HousePriceMania
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@AlessioUrban
Literally nothing is falling apart. Rates arent being cut. Indices near or at all time highs. Stocks acting like earnings dont even matter. Perfect Ponzi they created here.
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@AlessioUrban
Fun times over here.
This is the price of UK natural gas for this winter compared to the last 5 years - close to 900% higher now. This would take the average UK utility bill to around £4000. The energy crisis is getting worse fast and the UK government is completely asleep at the wheel. 😬
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‘It’s time to call the housing crisis what it really is: the largest transfer of wealth in living memory.’
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This article is confirming what I said since 2020: buyers in the rural areas were mainly people from cities like London who leveraged their main home to buy outside. Now they are sitting on two leveraged positions while rates are rising… checkmate.
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Literally why they cant afford to end the eviction bans as they have no real solution to the result. On the other hand, LLs are tak8ng advantage by raising rents due to a ‘rental shortage’ lol. Stupidity on all levels…
Close to half of Americans can't afford a one-bedroom rental: report
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@visegrad24
Yep, Russia/Belarus will use the migrants this way to destabilise Poland, hence why the UK was careful not to allow full on acceptance of refugees without vetting them first. Predicted it few days ago.
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Rail travel will not come back as before, their debts (and those of SMEs relying on rail travellers) will crush them. Schedule will reduce, prices will continue to go up, quality of service will decline. This is one reason why HS2 is a ludicrous endeavour.
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@InnocentSin13
@AlessioUrban
UK banks are flagged due to its exposure to the housing bubble. £1.x trillion in mortgage debt at least. Multiples of SBF/FTX lol.
Fitch Ratings: UK and Spanish banks are the most vulnerable to residential real-estate risk
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@lisaabramowicz1
If Bailey truly goes ahead with this, it will be a first in true competence. Let these gamblers go bust so it teaches everyone else they dont get any bailouts.
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A very popular belief over here is that supply and demand dictates the dynamics of the housing market. This is only true to some extent. The real driver of this dynamic are interest rates. Why?
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@catturd2
It’s true. Im from the UK, and he is a laughing stock lol. Makes Americans look like fools for voting for this guy.
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Just a note on this, the fact that rates are rising faster than 2008 tells you that this isnt 2008, but worse.
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@PeterStefanovi2
@PlanetPonzi
@BBCNews
The poverty one was my favourite. Stone-cold lie. He needs to speak to the people at the foodbanks…
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@AlessioUrban
Remember this from Oct 2022? Doesnt make sense they would let Biden do this forever lol. ‘Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister has warned countries against misusing their crude oil stockpiles to manipulate the oil markets.’
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Why people in the UK are only expecting a 5-10% fall is mindblowing to me, when across the world they are freefalling over 10% within a few months lol.
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Peak/transitory inflation camp was selling a collapse in car prices as proof of a peak, when they only quoted used car prices. Why are new cars still increasing? Because some inputs to make them are in shortage, and prices for these inputs still high. Same logic why food prices
Used car prices are dropping while the cost of a new vehicle is increasing, hinting at more inflation pain ahead, per Bloomberg.
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@disclosetv
@EssexPR
The UK remains the beacon of individual freedom in Europe. Proud moment for us Brits.
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lifeline. As rates are now hoovering at 0, the question is how they will keep the casino moving? I belief we have reached the end of this status quo, and will see the total annihilation of the casino and the speculators whose ‘wealth’ is tied to it.
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the status quo hasn’t been erased, but maintained and grotesquely blown higher. It’s a house of cards that will implode, as all Ponzi schemes eventually do.
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@AlessioUrban
And blackouts bro. Englandzuela.
The UK’s National Grid has warned British households to prepare for blackouts between 4pm and 7pm on ‘really, really cold’ weekdays in January and February
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to profit from. Voila, a casino is born. This dynamic works well for them, but terrible for the average person. Once this crowd takes charge of the casino, they have massive skin in the game to manipulate the supply and demand dynamic, for example to keep rates low and prices
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Translation: the banks are totally screwed.
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@AsaadHannaa
@amlivemon
Man, this corruption is off the charts. No wonder Trump was shutting them down.
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@ShaunVarnham
@statsjamie
People were warning about this all along, but were called all sorts of names by the vaccinated lol. Hopefully this will be a wakeup call that they are just being used.
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@AlessioUrban
Europoors and Englandzuela in deep doodoo soon. £100 soon £50 lol.
One in four people in the UK have less than £100 in savings, says NatWest CEO Alison Rose
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A neighbour is on a tariff with E-On which will lapse in March next year. He said the cheapest he can get after his £80pcm expires is a £185pcm from them (and that’s the current outlook, might get worse). Cost of living expenses will implode the bubbles...
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‘The Bank of Mum and Dad will be a key driving force behind the post-coronavirus recovery within the UK housing market, according to new analysis.’ Nonsense. Mum & Dad will be in a lot of financial trouble themselves soon as bubbles implode and banking crisis emerges.
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p. 10 They also control the levers of information and the lackeys under them (unwitting estate agents, brokers, etc.) who propagate these lies to the broad masses. This dynamic created the US/UK housing bubble from 2003-2008, and the current bubble since
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@AlessioUrban
Imagine they hike once or twice from here and stop in the summer, only for the fuckery to begin in the summer and they fall behind the curve yet again lol.
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@Didgitalpunk
@Rainmaker1973
The trick worked on me. I thought it was a man walking a trail, with a dog head motif on the back of the jacket. When I zoomed in I saw the dog.
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This is actually a stark warning going ahead. Zombie firms en masse propped up by gov programs will go bust regardless of the help. Too much Ponzi debt. No real econ to support corp balance sheets. Fiction and fakery left and right. Beware.
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Funny they just blame it on the ‘festivity season’ lol. I would keep an eye on the lag effect of inflationary pressures and IRs going up. The realisation of both only came in around Sept/Oct. This may already be the first sign of it. Let’s see.
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@AlessioUrban
‘On average a litre of petrol cost 164.4p at the pumps last week while the price of diesel was 188.9p, official data showed. This is the largest difference since records began in 2003.’
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@davetrane11
@farrisbaba
Yeah, meanwhile Millenni0s and housing agents think housing is safe because the majority is on fixed rates lol.
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They will be thankful they didnt get trapped into a mortgage at the top. They just dont know it yet.
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It’s almost like they want SMEs to go bankrupt and create even more unemployed...
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@AlessioUrban
I think your recent macro take of no landing+credit event was extremely contrarian. Today confirmed to me you are probably right. Just a sailing on for the econ while Wall Street shits to beds.
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Roubini says govs will give up fighting inflation due to high debts, settle ~5-6% in the UK. Correctly says if this happens, gilts yields will settle way higher (inflation isnt transitory fully priced in then), means mortgage rates above 10%. 100% correct.
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high so the casino doesn’t implode. If they want to profit more or maintain the status quo, they can perpetuate fairytales such as supply is low to boost prices even higher (but fact is supply has been outpacing household formation in the UK for decades).
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@unusual_whales
Lol ofc. Once you go down this route, you break trust and then the market completely. This is a fiasco.
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1) When rates are high, house prices are low. 2) When rates are low, house prices are high. Instinctively, people would say that ok, if 1) is true then we have lower demand and higher supply, and in 2) higher demand and lower supply. This is also only partially correct.
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Which is another way of admitting the pension system is bankrupt. Who would gave guessed, when the blackhole goes into the trillions?
Billions of pounds will be added to the Treasury's state pension bill unless the minimum age is increased sooner, according to
@ILCUK
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Just a reminder what’s actually going on, and not the fairytales they keep telling you.
Those "celebrating" the vaccine news and "
#recovery
" remember that:
1) Europe is back in lockdowns.
2) Debt moratoriums are still very much in place in, e.g., Italy and Spain.
3) Furloughs + compensations abound.
4) US Chapter 11 bankruptcies run very high.
... 1/
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@AlessioUrban
Bond furus are proving (among many others, like mortgage brokers) that without CB QE and other tricks, they are fucking stupid and dont actually know anything.
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@Elcieloazul20
@AlessioUrban
The answer is in Alessio’s tweet: ‘fiscal spending’. Govs are trying to prevent the crisis with fiscal, thereby keeping the econ buyoant just enough to keep it in stagflation, but not outright recession.
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