Polemic Paine
@PolemicTMM
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Team Macro Man, City veteran, investor, trader and lover of wild places. Fascinated by behavioural biases.
On the financial beach
Joined April 2014
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CHASING THE SUN
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billie
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Alito
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Scottie
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Crockett
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Diddy
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Diddy
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Fauci
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#النصر_الهلال
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RPWP TRACKLIST
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#วอลเลย์บอลหญิง
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Juventus
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Louisville
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कन्हैया कुमार
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Barron
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NCAA
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أبو عبيدة
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ابو عبيده
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#عزالدين_سليم_المفكر_الشهيد
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Homofobia
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ジュラシックワールド
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Shani Louk
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Amit Buskila
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LOST IS COMING
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Madden
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Tabilo
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المنطقه الشرقيه
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$BASED
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Kinds of Kindness
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Sean Combs
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للنصر
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Pinned Tweet
@paulkrugman
This is the 1st cited reference I have received from a Nobel Laureate and I will wear it with pride, even if just twitter. Thx!
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Ethereum down 6%
So what exactly has it merged with? Turkish lira?
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Manor House to Cannon Street is a famed 'run vs tube' challenge, but Moorgate to Farringdon (2 stops) 'parkour vs tube' is a whole new level.
Good effort. Well done lads.
(ps: imagine this as an Olympic sport - proper competition).
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Prediction.
One day we'll look back and see that the Truss/KK plan was, in reality, the only path on offer out of the economic swamp the UK is inexorably heading deeper into.
BoE and current Tory plans are the morphine of palliative care rather than cure.
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China's economy can be about to collapse longer than you can remain short.
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Been out with a friend who is board member of a UK pension fund and advisor to many others.
LDI was an allowable risk. So everyone took it as a way to leverage to make underfunded liabilities look funded. Pushed by the structure creators and backed by the big consultants
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Time for my annual check.
Has anyone found a use for Bitcoin yet?
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Bonds down, equities down, inflation up.
Forget investing, the best trade is to get a job.
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If Nomura has dropped $2 billion on mismatch between execution on margin call and/or remaining contractual risk then the knock on effect is going to be every Prime Broker credit debt going loopy and tightening on margin requirements
This could be the great deleveraging.
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Thank you to whoever produced tonight's Boris Bingo card
Eyes down at 8pm
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Good inflation hedge is to have a job.
Better inflation hedge is to have a job with inflation linked pay
Best inflation hedge is to work for the European Parliament with inflation linked pay, large inflation linked pensions and near 0 chance of being fired
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Friend last week attended a pension fund conference. She was amazed that everyone seemed keen to speak about environment, social and goverance alongside diversity and compliance. No one really spoke about making the clients any money.
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Heads should roll on this one. 12 years of regulators draconian clamping down on risk in all other sectors of banking and fund mamagdment and this happens in pretty clear sight.
DB pensions are bot FCA. Pensions regulator.
But it's suited everyone to hide the pension problem.
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Everyone hates US dollars until, all of a sudden, they need them to pay their margin calls.
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@RampCapitalLLC
Selection by random draw rather than ability.
'Dear xxx , you have been chosen to represent your country in High Jump"
The Olympics would be a laugh.
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Markets are going to need a new thing.
ESG - done
Post covid growth - done
Renewables - done
Electrification - done
Space - done
Inflation - done
Crypto - done
Biotech - done
Leverage on all the above - done
What's the next big thing that you're sure no one has spotted?
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Everyone thought they'd be fine because of that classic reason 'it hasn't happened before'. As allowed and everyone was doing them, logical risk was shoved under carpet because quant risk was low. It was classic herding into leverage.
But you can't dream up assets.
Boom.
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Suggestion -
Civil service pensions to be indexed to relative GDP per capita growth.
Might refocus their minds towards driving growth rather than killing it in regs and restrictions.
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2020 has marked new highs in really stupid people telling us why really clever people are wrong.
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In finance, skills in marketing are now more important than skills in finance.
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"Wind power is cheaper.." they said.
"Your bills will be lower"... they said.
"No it won't", we said.
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Those who push hardest for new forms of money are those who want more of existing forms of money.
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Evergrande is this year's Deutsche Bank.
Everyone predicting it will take down the system but it won't.
But they say it may take down Deutsche Bank.
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Could someone explain to me what the point of the FCA is, in an environment where PENSION FUNDS can get themselves leveraged to the point of bankruptcy absent a Bank of England intervention?
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Started work on my food shortage trade.
Worried it could be too big a position for me to manage.
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There's a chance that BoE buying gilts has triggered a turn in all global assets.
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Contrary to popular belief, you can't have an economy based on trading or investing. Someone still has to do the work you are investing in.
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'No EU commissioner was (or will be) harmed in the making of this energy disaster'
The total failure of Europe's energy policy risks the collapse of the European Union
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Great mirth at the squeezable foam 'stress swan' present my wife gave to our daughter.
Here is what my wife saw.. and what everyone else saw.
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*EV home chargers to turn off for 9hrs to prevent blackouts*
Sell the EV dream of ease of use.
Realise there isn't enough electricity.
Throttle supply to charge them.
.. Except to public chargers who are charging you 5x as much for it.
#RealityDawning
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Twitter misses the big boring bit in the middle. Because it's boring. But it's where most of the money is made.
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If you are tempted to own something pegged to the USD, buy the USD.
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There's a global plague of being told what to do by idiots.
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Dispite all the billions of words written, courses studied and papers authored, company stock prices go up for only two reasons.
1. The value of the company goes up.
2. People think the value of the company will go up.
99% of the time it's 2.
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Costco email today.
#Gold
bullion available alongside cheap perfume and golf putters at your local discount warehouse.
TDI (Taxi Driver Index) flashing red.
H/t
@moved_average
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Ether $ETH is down 20% since you said this. As I have no position in it, could you send my profit to me please?
If you don't own Ether $ETH, you are short Ether. Few understand this.
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So far -
Haircut up 38%
Pint of beer up 23%
Hand car wash up 30%
Dentist visit up £35 (PPE)
Paint up 20-50%.
And my favorite 'tins of smoked oysters' - up 14%
Shops opening in UK today.
Going to be a lot of "Wow, that costs a lot more than it used to"
#Covlation
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Very little bank research left worth reading. Middle mass is look back and anything look forward is planted in mid herd to avoid attack.
Anything controversial is now snuffed out by corp thought police. Bank value is execution only and that'll be finteched away.
Game over.
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Beginning to think forward energy has 'gone CDS'.
As CDS was erroneously seen as the real probability of default rather than simply as that implied through pricing, forward energy price is the cost of hedging rather than what prices will actually be spot at that date forward.
Fresh record high prices for 🇩🇪 and 🇫🇷 electricity:
German 1-year forward: €725 per MWh
French 1-year forward: €870 per MWh
The 2010-2020 average was around €41 per MWh
Russian energy weapon; French nuclear crisis; low wind production. Drought-hit hydro.
#EnergyCrisis
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Recession.
It'll be a recession for financial assets but not for jobs. We are seeing the switch of wealth growth from doing nothing and hoping everyone elses activity will make you richer to one where YOU have to work to increase your wealth.
Best inflation hedge? A job.
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Breakeven inflation rates are no more the inflation rate than CDS prices are actual default probabilities or VIX is actual volatility.
Implied ≠ actual.
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UK is NOT Greece 2012 but every trick used against Greece by the global institutions is being wheeled out as they have another Trump moment panic. Summers, IMF, cue up moodies, FT in orgasmic overdriveto embarrass Truss to Uturn as her policy goes against their plan.
#SoBrexit
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I see so many examples of 'loss by complexity' brought on by a belief that the more complex the trade the less likely anyone else is ahead on it.
If you think oil is going up, the simplest way to make money is not to buy a 3mth call spread in Nok/jpy. It's just to buy oil.
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I have a suspicion that a Biden win will see stocks do the reverse 48hrs of the Trump win.
Big spike up - then a long fall.
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My mother-in-law died today. She'll go down as a covid death. I told the doctor that gave me comfort. He asked why. I replied that if a death as hers in which covid was only a negligible contribution counted as a covid death then overall the UK death stats are a lot less worrying
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Today the ECB will be announcing future purchases of old sofas, toys, TVs and anything else listed on their new European Buy Any Yield (EBAY) program.
"Buying junk and burning it for heat has a better yield than any of the bonds we've bought" said an ECB official.
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@JavierBlas
Masterful trolling of the EU by Mr P.
What next?
"Bats and/or great crested newts spotted near by. Have to suspend operations as they may disturb them"
(Works in the UK as a reason to halt everything)
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Whilst Russian gas is?
GERMANY’S CHANCELLOR MERKEL: NUCLEAR ENERGY IS NOT SUSTAINABLE IN THE LONG TERM.
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Price caps do not solve energy crises. They create rationing.
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Usd cash looks like a wonderful investment. Why? Because It is so hated. Smells like squeezy bounce time.
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If every American donated a gun to Ukraine you'd help solve two problems at once.
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Fund managers aren't launching ESG funds to save the world. It's to increase AUM with the bonus of excusing underperformance as being due to client's ESG demands.
'Surely sir can afford to pay us to save the world?'
Next up - kitten hostage funds.
Invest or the kitten gets it.
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Those of us who have worked for investment banks know Sunak's type full well.
When it all blows up he'll still walk away with a healthy pension, a board offer from a tech co and an NGO cushy number whilst we, the society he was meant to serve, will be left with sweet FA.
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Every cent made from buying Bitcoin has come from someone else buying bitcoin.
It solely redistributes wealth amongst bitcoiners.
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Gold market commentary.
The price of gold fell hard today as someone sold a lot.
Any further explaination is pure speculation unless you are the person who sold that lot and hence know why you did.
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Unintended consequences.
Forcing the labelling of sesame as an alergen ingredient leads to the addition of sesame to MORE foods.
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So. If I go to the pub wearing full PPE, a vaccine passport, proof of funds available with 6mths statements to prove it isn't money laundered, my own hospital bed, respirator, medications and full ITU team of docs and nurses, can I THEN order a beer?
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Coronavirus is going to be a sizeable shove towards the realisation that working from home can be a lot more productive than working in an office. Especially once commutes are factored in.
Betting it becomes a regular norm for screen based professions.
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Boris Johnson would be a diabolical trader. He gets married to his positions and hits his stop losses far too late.
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The reason most academics don't make money in markets is because they are so busy analysing the last move they miss the next one.
This fascination with every event having to be like a previous event is mind shackling.
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Room service? So Mrs P had the hotel burger at £25 whilst I had a lump of fresh tuna bought in the local Tahitian market for £7, sliced up to sashimi served with a bottle of kikoman, washed down with Cointreau. Heaven!
(It's my holiday, I'll do what I want).
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@MichaelAArouet
Budget surpluses.
Low Debt.
Zero tariff, non protectionist, global trade policies.
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To all scammers. If you need a filter to target your victims look no further than the replies to this.
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Market update.
I'm on a buying spree.
Oilers. Divi payers. High yield bonds.
Why am I bothering to tell you this when all I'll get is derision? Probably to show that this is only twitter and it doesn't matter two hoots what anyone says to you on it. Don't let 'em get you down.
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People only sell trading systems they don't believe in.
Otherwise they'd keep it.
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@Rainmaker1973
It can't add energy to the system without a power source. if the propeller's energy source is the flow of water the total flow and speed of the water cannot be increased.
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- Argentina shutting down soya and soy oil exports.
- China's enormous manufacturing and port city of Shenzhen going into covid lockdown (how's that Sinovac doing?).
- On top of closed and sanctioned Russian mineral exports.
Deglobalisation on steroids.
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The Detroitification of San Francisco continues.
Tech demise is reminiscent of the departure of the car co.s and the subsequent meltdown of inner Detroit.
SCOOP:
@salesforce
is pulling out of its remaining space at a San Francisco office tower that carries its name, per a new listing for the property.
SF’s largest employer has given up over 1M SF of office space in the city.
#sanfrancisco
#Salesforce
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Idea..
An everything ETF.
To contain fractions of everything on the planet weighted by mass.
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For those unaware of the Uranium market. It's illiquid, relatively small and very complicated, but it's certainly on the move.
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I guess a 30% fall in value is normal behaviour for a store of wealth.
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Those proclaiming the new 'work from home' life maybe wise to note that working from home puts them in competition with anyone else working from home. From anywhere in the world.
Bosses no longer need local dwellers for local jobs.
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Rude reminder (the more honest version of a gentle reminder)
It ain't over until you are out.
95% of investment chatter is about what to go long or short of, what is held and what mark to market is. But 95% of the skill is when to exit a trade. Hardly ever discussed.
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Fund managers don't launch ETFs or asset specific funds because they think the assets within them will go up in value.
They launch them because other people think they'll go up and pay a fee to use them.
Owners don't open casinos because they think the gamblers will win.
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Tourist market follows oil market into negative pricing.
Italian island pays tourists to visit.
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Covid is an accelerant
It speeds up the inevitable.
Weak companies collapse faster, political change happens sooner, international tensions strain quicker, sick people die earlier and prices rise faster.
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"Coronavirus may be a blood vessel disease, which explains everything"
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On schedule
#IndustrialEnergyMigration
To repeat, if the energy can't be moved to the industry then the industry will move to the energy.
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Biden spent 90 mins in the same room as Trump the other night...
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The Big Short is on Netflix so I had to watch it again.
Hundreds of thousands of experts who thought it could never happen.
What a funny old repeatable world we live in.
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Tether distrust.
Remember Standard Life Sterling One fund?
Was in it in 2007 as they mkted it as their cash fund alt to all their long only bond and eq funds. Only their 'cash' turned out to be CP, OIS and other cash like things. Got hosed in 2008.
Tether reeks of the same.
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Just spent two days on a blacksmithing course.
Superb. Dangerous machines, flamey red hot stuff, hitting things, chemistry, physics and a lot of learning.
Hugely fulfilling.
Amazing what you can turn a lump of steel into solely with flames, a hammer and grit paper.
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Just done something I haven't done for a long while.
Bought SP500 index
Gut feeling
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The Mexicans may indeed end up paying for the wall!
Mexico is considering closing its border to stop Americans bringing coronavirus into its country
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But PLEASE DON'T WORRY as coordinated Central Bank action will see them cut rates by 'whatever is necessary' to divert the path of the asteroid and minimise any effect on the economy caused by total global destruction.
A 4.1KM asteroid will close-in on Earth in April, NASA has confirmed - Could end human civilisation if it hits
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