Seth Cogswell
@cogswell_seth
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Managing Partner @ Running Oak Capital | Investment Strategies - Lover of beagles, sarcasm, good people doing good things
Minneapolis, MN
Joined August 2018
In the long run, the opposite is true. These are real companies, operating in the real world, creating and destroying value. Entrusting capital to companies that destroy that capital is DUMB. The return to reality will be nuts.
Russell +15% ytd Profitable Russell: +9.7% Unprofitable Russell: +45% That’s the tweet. ☠️
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Let’s gooooooo
Navigating Market Volatility: Strategies for Investing in Uncertain Times | @inspiredmoneyfm @StocktonKatie @CNBC @CNBCClosingBell @SquawkCNBC Contributor @Mike_Taylor1972 @cogswell_seth @Gary_Brode @theeaglesvision @bjeaglefeather #Stocks #InspiredMoney
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Thank you, Melanie and @leadlagreport!
Michael Burry’s Warning, AI Math Reality, and the Hollowing Out of “Core”
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I'm sure it's nothing...
We’ve had a global liquidity glut for so long that people think it’s permanent. It’s not.
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If you watch one thing, make it this video by @EpsilonTheory. I don't yet know what to do with it... other than lose sleep, but I DO KNOW that ignorance and burying one's head in the sand isn't the solution. Fewer people choosing ignorance is likely to lead to a more positive,
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It was a fun conversation. Thank you for having me, @Greenbackd and @farnamjake1!
Investor @cogswell_seth joins @farnamjake1 and me on Value: After Hours LIVE TODAY at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P / 5.30pm UTC / 3.30am AEST Watch it on the Acquirers Podcast channel: https://t.co/Ab8JGxgMOu……… Subscribe
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Native AI companies ARE the implementation, and they are burning cash like nothing seen in history - torching value. New websites were cheap. LLMs are not. The infrastructure buildout today far surpasses that of the Tech Bubble, chips are obsolete within a year or two, and the
The 90s Dot Com boom began with an infrastructure boom (in the mid-90s) followed by an explosion in implementation IPOs (websites) in '98-'99. Will the AI boom follow a similar path? So far it's been nearly all infrastructure with very few AI implementation IPOs.
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That does sound like something I’d say. It was fun!
Enjoyable conversation. Everyone is jacked up with the same assets... looking at the same damn charts...using the same damn strategy. Like looking for seashells on the beach in October...the competition is caught up in bullshit, elsewhere... all you have to do is look down.
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JUST IN: Michael Burry has said that Oracle, $ORCL, and Meta, $META, could be overstate earnings by 26.9% and 20.8%. He adds: "It gets worse."
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Themes, Memes, and Dreams... Passive investing/index funds, thematic strategies, and trends now dominate portfolios. · Passive Investing/Index Funds: By construction, passive, cap-weighted portfolios invest more when a company becomes overvalued, BECAUSE the company is
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Recently on @Nasdaq: Bringing Back "Buy Low. Sell High." - #RUNN Remember when "Buy low. Sell high." was considered the key to #investing success? Over the years, that 4-word obvious philosophy has become nonexistent in most portfolios. In a recent interview, we discuss how RUNN
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To complement passive, the industry and investors have turned to Thematic Investing for the periphery. Themes can be an excellent way to focus on a specific industry and round out a portfolio. Few focus on valuations, though. There's little to no "Buy low. Sell high." "Buy
runningoak.com
Using our time-tested core philosophy developed over four decades, Running Oak Capital is focused on outperforming the S&P 500 over a full economic cycle with less downside risk. We apply a multi-f...
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Remember when "Buy low. Sell high." was the obvious path to investing success? "Buy low. Sell high." has now been replaced with Themes, Memes, and Dreams. Passive portfolios/index funds buy more the more OVERVALUED a company is, buy less the more UNDERVALUED a company is., and
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Bespoke does excellent work, but the whole “It’s 1997” narrative at a time when concentration is beyond the Tech Bubble, valuations are beyond the Tech Bubble, average households have more invested in stocks than at the peak of the Tech Bubble, cash is being torched at a degree
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"Don't you think valuations are PERMANENTLY higher from now on?" - A real-life question from an investment professional managing the money of others Things are getting a little hot and heavy. Here's a much needed cold shower: Companies operate in the real world. A share of
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This is fine. Everything is fine.
Food for thought Breaking down Russell 2000: 57% of index is currently profitable 41% of index is currently unprofitable 2% of index doesn’t currently have earnings data available Since 4/8/25 closing low: Profitable part of Russell 2000: +22% Unprofitable part of Russell
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This letter states what many (including myself) sense but struggle to clearly state. It’s very much worth a read. 2 things to add: Life is changing at a far faster pace than in 1999, AND the larger the numbers, much like driving a car faster, the sooner the consequences - good
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